Little change to 94L; exceptional heat in Texas, record rains in California

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 06, 2011

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There is not much change to report on the large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Western Caribbean, between Jamaica and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The disturbance has brought intermittent heavy rains to Jamaica over the past two days, but nearby islands have thus far escaped the deluge. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1" per hour occurred in ocean regions just east of Jamaica this morning, but the heaviest rains have missed the island so far this morning. Visible satellite loops show no increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, and the storm's low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are poorly defined. The storm's center of low pressure is located about 130 miles south of Grand Cayman Island, in a region with no heavy thunderstorm activity. An intense clump of thunderstorms exists on either side of this low, near Jamaica, and just east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Water vapor satellite loops show the Caribbean has moistened over the past two days, and upper air balloon soundings from the Cayman Islands continue to show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 69% last night.) Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through tonight. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1" per hour (orange colors) were estimated by the F-17 satellite for 94L at 7:03am EDT Jun 6, 2011. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Since 94L is so large and poorly organized, today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 00Z and 06Z model runs were unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. A band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models show 94L pushing slowly northwest at about 5 mph, hitting this shear on Tuesday and Wednesday, preventing any further development. The NOGAPS model predicts that a gap may open up in the shear sufficient for the storm to organize into a tropical depression late this week. Given 94L's current disorganization, I doubt the storm will ever develop. NHC gave 94L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, and I believe these odds should be lower, near 20%. Regardless of development, 94L is capable of bringing very heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti through Wednesday. These rains will probably spread northwards into South Florida and the Bahama Islands by Thursday or Friday.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Exceptional heat in the South
A sizzling June heat wave set record high temperatures across much of Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. The high temperature at the Houston, Texas airport hit 105 degrees, the warmest temperature ever recorded in the month of June (old record: 104 degrees on June 24th and June 26th, 2009.) The earliest Houston ever recorded a temperature of 105 degrees prior to Sunday was July 26th, 1954. Records for Houston date back to 1891. There have been only 15 days in which the temperature has reached or exceeded 105 degrees in Houston:

4 - 1909
1 - 1954
2 - 1962
3 - 1980
5 - 2000

So far this month, new maximum temperature records in Houston have been established on four out of the first five days. Galveston and Houston both crushed their previous record high temperature for the day (June 5th) by a remarkable seven degrees. Residents can expect another day of triple-digit heat today, thanks to the upper level ridge of high pressure parked over the state. Houston will likely break the old record of 98°F for the date.


Figure 3. An intense low pressure system moves inland over California as seen in this satellite photo taken June 4, 2011, at 2pm PDT. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Record rains in California
A large and unusually intense low pressure system moved inland over California over the weekend, bringing large areas of the state rains unheard of in June. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, rainfall at Mining Ridge on the Big Sur coast totaled 8.31" Sunday, which, if verified, would be California's heaviest 1-day June rainstorm on record. According to the document "Historic Rainstorms in California" Dept. of Water Resources, Aug. 1997, the previous maximum June daily rainfall was 5.83" at Forni Ridge on June 18, 1982. San Francisco had its 2nd greatest June 1-day rainfall, going back to 1850, and both the San Francisco and Oakland airport have now had their rainiest Junes on record. Rainfall at Santa Barbara Airport yesterday totaled 1.24 inches, the wettest June day there on record (previous record: 0.51" on June 5, 2009.) The 1.38"of rain so far this June has made it the wettest June in recorded history at Santa Barbara Airport, going back to 1941.

Jeff Masters

Sunny California? (turnuptheheat)
Normally June should be warm and dry. Many areas have had more rainfall in one day than they usually get in the entire month of June. All due to this system: http://www.wunderground.com/data/images/GOES_CA_STORM.jpg
Sunny California?

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Quoting pottery:
I've been to Jamaica a couple of times.
94L should have known better than to go anywhere near the place.
You can see from the last 10 days of loops from around there, that the system in Inhaling, Holding, and Exhaling continuously.
That's what's wrong with it....
No WAY it gets organised!
Are you insinuating that our low is high?
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wait!! reed said it was gonna live! It's all but dead!
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Hey, guys, in all fairness, reed did call this one pretty good though. I know he gets a little excited sometimes, but that is youthful enthusiasm. I think I had a case of that once. It doesn't last. Now I'm and old grouch.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
I think it's raining here

(runs around in circles, slams into wall, passes out)
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Pressure continues to drop at buoy 42057...and we haven't even tanked out yet. Probably will reach somewhere around 1005mb.

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Quoting druseljic:
Wow, I saw the radar bringing a thunderstorm into Pcola and was wishing it would cool things off a bit. I not only got my wish, Mother Nature was tossing ice down as well. Most were a little smaller than a dime but at least one is about the size of a quarter.

Most rain we've had in a while, too!


Lucky you, so far in Fort Walton Beach we haven't seen a drop today but it's early. Don't need the hail but we'll take the badly needed rain.
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most of the Gulf Coast getting popcorn! (much needed)
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Good afternoon all

I just took a look at the latest 850, 700 and 500 mb vorticity and without exception they all look weaker than three hours ago. In fact, the strongest 500 mb signature is now to the SE of Jamaica and almost non existent where the low is situated. 94L may be on the way to disappointing many bloggers once more.

The rotation can be easily seen to the SW of Grand Cayman on the visible loop but the deep convection seems to be lifting to the N and may expose the surface low later today. If that happens the odds of becoming a TD would dwindle as the NHC is unlikely to classify a system with minimal or no deep convection even with a well defined circulation.

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Wow, I saw the radar bringing a thunderstorm into Pcola and was wishing it would cool things off a bit. I not only got my wish, Mother Nature was tossing ice down as well. Most were a little smaller than a dime but at least one is about the size of a quarter.

Most rain we've had in a while, too!
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Here is my cone for 94L:



Can I have one, please? Oh, wait... it would melt in about 0.4 seconds.
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Quoting beell:
SE Texas

POPCORN!

(also known as "yay! I got a whole EIGHTH of an inch!")

Does anyone else notice what looks like a streamer shower (or smoke plume) coming up at the beginning of the loop near the NE corner of Liberty county?
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Quoting DestinJeff:


I am so glad you changed your phrasing there.
*Facepalm*. LOL!!
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Quoting DestinJeff:


he better not show himself in public, or at least on the blog for at least a 24-hour cooling off period.

I think TWC makes him say what they want to happen to 94L, they don't go by NHC.
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HPC Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

TROPICS... GUIDANCE IS DIVERSE WITH THE ULTIMATE EVOLUTION OF
BROAD LOW PRESSURE FCST TO BE OVER THE NWRN CARIBBEAN AS OF DAY 3
THU AND AS A RESULT CONFIDENCE IN THIS FEATURE IS BELOW AVERAGE
ESPECIALLY AFTER DAYS 3-4. 17Z NHC/HPC COORDINATION YIELDS A
TRACK THAT IS WELL WITHIN THE BROAD SOLN ENVELOPE... WITH A
REMNANT LOW CROSSING THE FL PENINSULA BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD.




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Quoting FLdewey:
TWCRickKnabb Dr. Rick Knabb
Chances of tropical depression forming from the current system over the western Caribbean appear to me to be dwindling.

When the Dr tweets...


Well....maybe he just needs to get onboard the WUderTrain.......I say...:]
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91E is looking very good, very close to be TD1-E.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14894
Quoting sammywammybamy:
My Cone for 94L :



Looks very reasonable. Wouldn't be surprised if the actual ones are not close to that.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Quoting alfabob:

Alright well I made mine on individual low level clouds and tried to add some relative magnitude, but use which ever one you want. I see an elongated low with another LLC forming to the east.
But then you have to look at the surface observations from Kingston (post 489). Winds are coming out of the ESE there. If a low pressure were NNE of Kingston, then winds would be coming out of the N to NNW, which they aren't. They're coming out of the ESE, towards the WNW in the direction of 94L's main surface circulation.
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497. beell
SE Texas

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Miami NWS Discussion

STILL, CONDITIONS DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
(FROM THURSDAY ON) WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THIS
SYSTEM SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH EXTREME WESTERN CUBA BY LATE
THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEX BY
SATURDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS NAM WHICH BRINGS THE SYSTEM NORTH
AT A FASTER PACE AND BRINGS MOST ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA BY THURSDAY. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND...INCREASES
THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
GFS, ALSO INCREASES POPS FOR THIS PERIOD HOWEVER, NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE ECMWF. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WILL ONLY INDICATE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS FOR THIS PERIOD (THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY), AND WATCH FOR A PERSISTENT TREND AS WE GET CLOSER TO
THIS PERIOD.
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494. 7544
thanks sammy
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Posts 441-491
Ditto
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24881
Quoting jlp09550:
Hmm. Google doesn't like Wunderground anymore.. lol.



Anyone know anything about this?


I am on chrome, and I couldn't get on for 10 minutes, Sammy, why did you have to post that? And what was that image of.
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Quoting alfabob:

Things haven't changed much since I made this based on RGB low level winds.
This is what I'm seeing as far as lower-level cloud movements...

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Quoting alfabob:

Things haven't changed much since I made this based on RGB low level winds.



Surface obs from Kingston and Montego Bay Jamaica do not support that circulation you show.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


Fixed.



Thank you. :) Anyways, back to business..

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Quoting pottery:
I've been to Jamaica a couple of times.
94L should have known better than to go anywhere near the place.
You can see from the last 10 days of loops from around there, that the system in Inhaling, Holding, and Exhaling continuously.
That's what's wrong with it....
No WAY it gets organised!
It just has the munchies now.
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Quoting DestinJeff:


Hope it doesn't pull a Charley!


From a strength perspective, no chance.
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I've been to Jamaica a couple of times.
94L should have known better than to go anywhere near the place.
You can see from the last 10 days of loops from around there, that the system in Inhaling, Holding, and Exhaling continuously.
That's what's wrong with it....
No WAY it gets organised!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24881
It's Sammy's 470 comment image that Chrome hates.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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