Little change to 94L; exceptional heat in Texas, record rains in California

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 06, 2011

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There is not much change to report on the large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Western Caribbean, between Jamaica and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The disturbance has brought intermittent heavy rains to Jamaica over the past two days, but nearby islands have thus far escaped the deluge. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1" per hour occurred in ocean regions just east of Jamaica this morning, but the heaviest rains have missed the island so far this morning. Visible satellite loops show no increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, and the storm's low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are poorly defined. The storm's center of low pressure is located about 130 miles south of Grand Cayman Island, in a region with no heavy thunderstorm activity. An intense clump of thunderstorms exists on either side of this low, near Jamaica, and just east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Water vapor satellite loops show the Caribbean has moistened over the past two days, and upper air balloon soundings from the Cayman Islands continue to show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 69% last night.) Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through tonight. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1" per hour (orange colors) were estimated by the F-17 satellite for 94L at 7:03am EDT Jun 6, 2011. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Since 94L is so large and poorly organized, today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 00Z and 06Z model runs were unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. A band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models show 94L pushing slowly northwest at about 5 mph, hitting this shear on Tuesday and Wednesday, preventing any further development. The NOGAPS model predicts that a gap may open up in the shear sufficient for the storm to organize into a tropical depression late this week. Given 94L's current disorganization, I doubt the storm will ever develop. NHC gave 94L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, and I believe these odds should be lower, near 20%. Regardless of development, 94L is capable of bringing very heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti through Wednesday. These rains will probably spread northwards into South Florida and the Bahama Islands by Thursday or Friday.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Exceptional heat in the South
A sizzling June heat wave set record high temperatures across much of Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. The high temperature at the Houston, Texas airport hit 105 degrees, the warmest temperature ever recorded in the month of June (old record: 104 degrees on June 24th and June 26th, 2009.) The earliest Houston ever recorded a temperature of 105 degrees prior to Sunday was July 26th, 1954. Records for Houston date back to 1891. There have been only 15 days in which the temperature has reached or exceeded 105 degrees in Houston:

4 - 1909
1 - 1954
2 - 1962
3 - 1980
5 - 2000

So far this month, new maximum temperature records in Houston have been established on four out of the first five days. Galveston and Houston both crushed their previous record high temperature for the day (June 5th) by a remarkable seven degrees. Residents can expect another day of triple-digit heat today, thanks to the upper level ridge of high pressure parked over the state. Houston will likely break the old record of 98°F for the date.


Figure 3. An intense low pressure system moves inland over California as seen in this satellite photo taken June 4, 2011, at 2pm PDT. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Record rains in California
A large and unusually intense low pressure system moved inland over California over the weekend, bringing large areas of the state rains unheard of in June. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, rainfall at Mining Ridge on the Big Sur coast totaled 8.31" Sunday, which, if verified, would be California's heaviest 1-day June rainstorm on record. According to the document "Historic Rainstorms in California" Dept. of Water Resources, Aug. 1997, the previous maximum June daily rainfall was 5.83" at Forni Ridge on June 18, 1982. San Francisco had its 2nd greatest June 1-day rainfall, going back to 1850, and both the San Francisco and Oakland airport have now had their rainiest Junes on record. Rainfall at Santa Barbara Airport yesterday totaled 1.24 inches, the wettest June day there on record (previous record: 0.51" on June 5, 2009.) The 1.38"of rain so far this June has made it the wettest June in recorded history at Santa Barbara Airport, going back to 1941.

Jeff Masters

Sunny California? (turnuptheheat)
Normally June should be warm and dry. Many areas have had more rainfall in one day than they usually get in the entire month of June. All due to this system: http://www.wunderground.com/data/images/GOES_CA_STORM.jpg
Sunny California?

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Quoting pottery:

You got no warning?
I hate being outside in lightening.
Dont like it one bit!


99.6*F in Macon right now, 105 heat index, 36% humidity.

Would even take rain with lightning right now.
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


Let me see what my crystal ball says......
Let my fairy dust be with them...
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
What's new with 94l just signed back on

Ditto
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24314
Quoting pottery:

You got no warning?
I hate being outside in lightening.
Dont like it one bit!


I went with a bad decision,,thought the cell was heading across the River,,but it sat and expanded Pottery.



Was a warned cell but too late for me..


The Dog was not happy neither,I got some vid and still pics.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128348
What's new with 94l just signed back on
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Quoting Patrap:
When I got caught in the T-storm in the Park,,the Temp dropped 21 Degrees as the rain and hail fell.

The Lightening was really Bad.





You got no warning?
I hate being outside in lightening.
Dont like it one bit!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24314
SSD moved the low down to 17N 82.1W
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Quoting weaverwxman:
Groth I too am an old timer in SE Fl, although maybe not as old as you, but the last lingering dry spell that i can remember was in the early 70's, by dry I mean DRY no measurable precip for about 6 months, I do not think we will get any moisture from 94 unless it forms and moves due north which is not likely.


Well, the earliest I can remember is '48. That is 1948 :P I was in Europe a lot, but I was here in the early 70's for a short period of time. I can remember terrible fires in South Florida. The smoke was so bad in Miami and Hollywood, people could not go to work. It was very bad. I have never seen anything this dry.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26156
The last CONUS Hurricane strike was Hurricane Ike Sept 2008.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128348
623. j2008
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
i 91L has undergone rapid intensification!

Funny since 91 isn't in the atlantic!! Save that for later in the year when you can really give someone a scare. JK
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Quoting weatherportricheyfl:
hey does anyone think this yeasr will be bad for florida


Hint: Florida has never gone more than 5 years without getting directly impacted by a tropical system.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
i 91L has undergone rapid intensification!
OMG LOL
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Quoting 69Viking:


The scary part is that July and August can be scary dry if you don't get the afternoon thunderstorms. Having such a dry Spring is not good. We need a few weak TS this year in the Gulf to give the residents in the states along the GOM some much need rain.


Funny, you should mention that. I was just going to post this chart of rainfall in Miami. As you can see there can be a big dip in July for rainfall. So far we haven't had a drop.


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26156
Groth I too am an old timer in SE Fl, although maybe not as old as you, but the last lingering dry spell that i can remember was in the early 70's, by dry I mean DRY no measurable precip for about 6 months, I do not think we will get any moisture from 94 unless it forms and moves due north which is not likely.
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Looks like sitting in the Pub weather to me. And order two in case the lights go out and the bartender can't see the taps. :)


Good Call Dan - COnsider it done.
Was actually in Kailua Town Pub when the Lights went off saturday... Someone even spotted a funnel cloud....RARE over here...
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When I got caught in the T-storm in the Park,,the Temp dropped 21 Degrees as the rain and hail fell.

The Lightening was really Bad.




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128348
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


I thought you were in Norway?


Looks like the transporter he is designing works. :|
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
hey does anyone think this yeasr will be bad for florida
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
i 91L has undergone rapid intensification!
I shouldn't be luaghing but lol.
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Quoting NoNamePub:
Been NASTY here in Hawaii -
Had an Upper Level Low that hung out for about 3 days...



Looks like sitting in the Pub weather to me. And order two in case the lights go out and the bartender can't see the taps. :)
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting portcharlotte:
I have been in south Florida since 1961 following the weather and have never seen such intense heat and no rain on the radar in June...it's unreal. Usually nature balances this out sometimes in an extreme way. The damage from the drought will out-weigh the damage from a tropical storm.


Please keep all AGW discussion out of the blog, during periods of Extreme Weather.

:):))
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24314
Quoting 69Viking:


The scary part is that July and August can be scary dry if you don't get the afternoon thunderstorms. Having such a dry Spring is not good. We need a few weak TS this year in the Gulf to give the residents in the states along the GOM some much need rain.
Yep, plus on top of that we have a governor who's likely inclined to reduce the fire-fighting capabilities, and also to stop a water release from the Lake-O region down south as that might hurt big sugar.
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uuuummm 94L
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Quoting Grothar:


Same here and I am on the East Coast. I have never seen it this dry and I have been around for a loooooooong time. I don't ever remember anything like this.


I thought you were in Norway?
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Quoting masonsnana:
The "local" here in SW FL just said most of the rain will be east of us..ughhh
i 91L has undergone rapid intensification!
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Quoting 69Viking:


The scary part is that July and August can be scary dry if you don't get the afternoon thunderstorms. Having such a dry Spring is not good. We need a few weak TS this year in the Gulf to give the residents in the states along the GOM some much need rain.
Don't worry I spread my magical fairy dust to give you all some rain from a few weak disturbances.You can see my wond in my avatar.
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Been NASTY here in Hawaii -
Had an Upper Level Low that hung out for about 3 days...

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I have been in south Florida since 1961 following the weather and have never seen such intense heat and no rain on the radar in June...it's unreal. Usually nature balances this out sometimes in an extreme way. The damage from the drought will out-weigh the damage from a tropical storm.

Quoting 69Viking:


The scary part is that July and August can be scary dry if you don't get the afternoon thunderstorms. Having such a dry Spring is not good. We need a few weak TS this year in the Gulf to give the residents in the states along the GOM some much need rain.
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Quoting HCW:
Latest models runs from the NHC



Nice! That puts NW FL right in the middle so hopefully we'll get some much needed rain out of it!
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Quoting portcharlotte:
Levi

I know you used to follow Bastardi's thoughts. His latest are that the GOM trough is backing away which will allow the system to develop. He essentially said to not pay attention to the models on this one. Your thoughts. JB is on Weatherbell as you know.



I think he said he went back to work
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Quoting DestinJeff:
I picked June 28th in the "First Named Storm" office pool. If I when, I will get a little extra nothing in my next check.
Lol.
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Quoting Grothar:


Same here and I am on the East Coast. I have never seen it this dry and I have been around for a loooooooong time. I don't ever remember anything like this.


The scary part is that July and August can be scary dry if you don't get the afternoon thunderstorms. Having such a dry Spring is not good. We need a few weak TS this year in the Gulf to give the residents in the states along the GOM some much need rain.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Levi

I know you used to follow Bastardi's thoughts. His latest are that the GOM trough is backing away which will allow the system to develop. He essentially said to not pay attention to the models on this one. Your thoughts. JB is on Weatherbell as you know.



Quoting Levi32:
Water vapor imagery shows the upper trough over the Gulf of Mexico slowly but steadily advancing eastward, pressing dry air in towards 94L. This, along with the shearing aloft, will make it very difficult for the system to develop further and become a tropical depression. Diurnal max tonight may be its last chance to organize sufficiently to be classified.
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Heh!.
I am looking at the overall picture with 94L.
The area of disturbed weather is huge, and more moisture is coming in all the time.
I hope that the forecasts are correct, with the shear and the other negative aspects.
Otherwise this thing could get really weird in the GOM.

Great System!
Has everyone Flummoxed.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24314
594. j2008
I'm gonna say we have TD 1 in the EPAC at the 5Pm update.
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WTPN21 PGTW 062000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051951ZJUN2011//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.9N 98.9W TO 14.0N 101.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 061800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.0N 99.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.5N
98.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 99.0W, APPROXIMATELY 350 NAUTICAL
MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 061538Z METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES CURVED BANDING WITH INCREASING CONVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS REVEALS 91E IS LOCATED BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-
10 KNOTS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS ARE ALSO
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 18-23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
072000Z.//
NNNN

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592. HCW
Latest models runs from the NHC

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this pic seems like it could spell doom for both 91E and 94L???
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Ocala (mid northern Florida)just got slammed with some much needed rain. My rain gauge right now says over 4 inches.
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Well,me and da dog spent a Hour and some under a shelter in Audubon Park with Hail,Rain,Wind,lotsa lightening and one Oak tree dat lost a limb.

Stupid wu radars.


We twas a tad soaked to da bone.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128348
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ALERT ATCF MIL 91X XXX 110605180000
2011060518
10.2 261.8
13.6 259.0
110
10.5 261.5
052000
1106051951
1
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN21 PGTW 052000
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051951Z JUN 11//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 062000)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.2N 98.2W TO 13.6N 101.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 051800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.5N 98.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 01
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 062000Z.
//
9111060318 100N 980W 20
9111060400 100N 981W 20
9111060406 101N 981W 20
9111060412 102N 981W 20
9111060418 103N 981W 25
9111060500 103N 983W 25
9111060506 101N 984W 25
9111060512 104N 984W 25
9111060518 105N 985W 25
NNNN



Stop posting those for the Pacific. You get me all excited. LOL. Kidding, Keeper.

Well, if nothing else, 94L has given the blog a good case of whiplash. I didn't think any of you could suffer anymore psychological damage than you already have, but I think it has happened. :-D
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Fleet Weather Center Norfolk Tropical Feed
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (FWC-N CDO) from Fleet Weather Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on Mon, Jun 06, 2011.

As of Mon, 06 Jun 2011 20:30:01 GMT
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ALERT ATCF MIL 91X XXX 110605180000
2011060518
10.2 261.8
13.6 259.0
110
10.5 261.5
052000
1106051951
1
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN21 PGTW 052000
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051951Z JUN 11//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 062000)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.2N 98.2W TO 13.6N 101.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 051800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.5N 98.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 01
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 062000Z.
//
9111060318 100N 980W 20
9111060400 100N 981W 20
9111060406 101N 981W 20
9111060412 102N 981W 20
9111060418 103N 981W 25
9111060500 103N 983W 25
9111060506 101N 984W 25
9111060512 104N 984W 25
9111060518 105N 985W 25
NNNN

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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Grothar, I have a buddy in Estero,FL who will pay plenty for a minimal TS soaking!


Same here and I am on the East Coast. I have never seen it this dry and I have been around for a loooooooong time. I don't ever remember anything like this.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26156
Quoting DestinJeff:


re ported.

If I when... haha.


LOL. Hey, everyone makes mistakes, except for me. I am not everyone.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.