Little change to 94L; exceptional heat in Texas, record rains in California

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 06, 2011

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There is not much change to report on the large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Western Caribbean, between Jamaica and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The disturbance has brought intermittent heavy rains to Jamaica over the past two days, but nearby islands have thus far escaped the deluge. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1" per hour occurred in ocean regions just east of Jamaica this morning, but the heaviest rains have missed the island so far this morning. Visible satellite loops show no increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, and the storm's low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are poorly defined. The storm's center of low pressure is located about 130 miles south of Grand Cayman Island, in a region with no heavy thunderstorm activity. An intense clump of thunderstorms exists on either side of this low, near Jamaica, and just east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Water vapor satellite loops show the Caribbean has moistened over the past two days, and upper air balloon soundings from the Cayman Islands continue to show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 69% last night.) Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through tonight. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1" per hour (orange colors) were estimated by the F-17 satellite for 94L at 7:03am EDT Jun 6, 2011. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Since 94L is so large and poorly organized, today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 00Z and 06Z model runs were unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. A band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models show 94L pushing slowly northwest at about 5 mph, hitting this shear on Tuesday and Wednesday, preventing any further development. The NOGAPS model predicts that a gap may open up in the shear sufficient for the storm to organize into a tropical depression late this week. Given 94L's current disorganization, I doubt the storm will ever develop. NHC gave 94L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, and I believe these odds should be lower, near 20%. Regardless of development, 94L is capable of bringing very heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti through Wednesday. These rains will probably spread northwards into South Florida and the Bahama Islands by Thursday or Friday.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Exceptional heat in the South
A sizzling June heat wave set record high temperatures across much of Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. The high temperature at the Houston, Texas airport hit 105 degrees, the warmest temperature ever recorded in the month of June (old record: 104 degrees on June 24th and June 26th, 2009.) The earliest Houston ever recorded a temperature of 105 degrees prior to Sunday was July 26th, 1954. Records for Houston date back to 1891. There have been only 15 days in which the temperature has reached or exceeded 105 degrees in Houston:

4 - 1909
1 - 1954
2 - 1962
3 - 1980
5 - 2000

So far this month, new maximum temperature records in Houston have been established on four out of the first five days. Galveston and Houston both crushed their previous record high temperature for the day (June 5th) by a remarkable seven degrees. Residents can expect another day of triple-digit heat today, thanks to the upper level ridge of high pressure parked over the state. Houston will likely break the old record of 98°F for the date.


Figure 3. An intense low pressure system moves inland over California as seen in this satellite photo taken June 4, 2011, at 2pm PDT. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Record rains in California
A large and unusually intense low pressure system moved inland over California over the weekend, bringing large areas of the state rains unheard of in June. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, rainfall at Mining Ridge on the Big Sur coast totaled 8.31" Sunday, which, if verified, would be California's heaviest 1-day June rainstorm on record. According to the document "Historic Rainstorms in California" Dept. of Water Resources, Aug. 1997, the previous maximum June daily rainfall was 5.83" at Forni Ridge on June 18, 1982. San Francisco had its 2nd greatest June 1-day rainfall, going back to 1850, and both the San Francisco and Oakland airport have now had their rainiest Junes on record. Rainfall at Santa Barbara Airport yesterday totaled 1.24 inches, the wettest June day there on record (previous record: 0.51" on June 5, 2009.) The 1.38"of rain so far this June has made it the wettest June in recorded history at Santa Barbara Airport, going back to 1941.

Jeff Masters

Sunny California? (turnuptheheat)
Normally June should be warm and dry. Many areas have had more rainfall in one day than they usually get in the entire month of June. All due to this system: http://www.wunderground.com/data/images/GOES_CA_STORM.jpg
Sunny California?

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Quoting Grothar:


Remember how the cars were completely covered with ash. There was so much on the ground, it looked like snow.


I was only 13 but I remember it well they cancelled our baseball camp that summer
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Quoting Patrap:
I got soaked,,as did 2 Bikers,,2 Kids and we all were lucky as the one strike took a 10 inch Limb right off a 250 yr old old,100ft away.

Now that got my attention.


Hope it wasn't the tree we planted?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
So has the surface circulation of 94L tucked into the convection? Looks like on visible satellite, and seems that the convection is sustaining...?


Warming cloud tops evident everywhere on the WV loop. Does not bode well for 94L
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Quoting j2008:

I'll give you a little bit of dryness for a little bit of humidity. Here at my house in Tucson its 102 with 6% humidity. Horridly dry here..........


When you consider the heat our troops deal with in the Middle East every day, it's a really small price to pay....I'll deal with it.
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Quoting EricSFL:
These monsonal lows can be huge!.That's why they take forever to develope.
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So has the surface circulation of 94L tucked into the convection? Looks like on visible satellite, and seems that the convection is sustaining...?
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676. HCW
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Quoting weaverwxman:
Groth that is correct we got ash showers in East Central Broward for weeks.


Remember how the cars were completely covered with ash. There was so much on the ground, it looked like snow.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


I will tell you what I think
I think the low will start to drop south and loop around then head Eward to about 75/80W get even more good looking then become TD#1 by midday tues
Since 94L will be running into high shear soon.I've lowered my chances for development.
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The US National Weather Service Lake Charles Louisiana has received several reports of quarter size hail and winds to 60 mph this afternoon across Southeast Texas and Southern Louisiana
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129853
Quoting pottery:

Just did that.
You still think an open wave is on the cards?
I had not thought about it, but it seems to be an option.
It's tried everything else LOL!


The surface low is at risk of being exposed this afternoon at the rate the convection is lifting away from the system with no deep convection following to fill the gap.

If you run this visible loop you will see that in a couple of hours what little convection remains over the center will have drifted off to the North and will likely expose the entire circulation. If that happens an open wave would be on the cards with dry air threatening again and moving East rapidly over the Yucatan peninsula..
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Quoting washingtonian115:
According to JB we shouldn't listen to the models.


Well, it's good advice 'cause they're spread all over the place LOL
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Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
<

Thats the area I mentioned about an hour ago when looking at the big loop of the Atlantic...Looks alot better than 94L at the moment.... :)
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A few strong storms in my area this hot afternoon. Thankfully I've kept myself inside my own house and haven't had to venture out in the Heat and Torrential downpour.

Believe we've another round possible tomorrow before drier air moves in. Now, if only these cells would move a little North and not to the coast so quickly!
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Quoting j2008:

I'll give you a little bit of dryness for a little bit of humidity. Here at my house in Tucson its 102 with 6% humidity. Horridly dry here..........
So sorry.Wish that I could donate some of my rain i've gotten over these past few weeks,and in the coming days.
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later>>
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24883
663. j2008
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
99 in Tallahassee right now and very humid...Uggggg.

I'll give you a little bit of dryness for a little bit of humidity. Here at my house in Tucson its 102 with 6% humidity. Horridly dry here..........
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According to JB we shouldn't listen to the models.
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


What do you make of SSD pulling the low down to 17N Kman.


I will tell you what I think
I think the low will start to drop south and loop around then head Eward to about 75/80W get even more good looking then become TD#1 by midday tues
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659. xcool



by atmos.albany.edu


Plotted values represent probabilities weighted by climatology of an event
(anomalous warm or anomalous cold temperatures in excess of 1.5 standard deviations) given the tropical background
convective state (including 100-day lowpass patterns and the sum of the MJO and equatorial Rossby wave projections).
The dates of all similar lowpass patterns are first identified, then from among
those events, the 10 MJO events most similar to the present state
are identified. Dates are retained 2 days before to 2 days after each
selected MJO optimum date, then counts are made based on 850 hPa temperatures.
Roundy et al. (2010, J. Climate) provides motivation for considering the MJO and ENSO in concert.
Solid black lines enclose regions in which
the probabilities for warm conditions are significantly different from
the probabilities of cold conditions at the 95% level.
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Quoting FrankZapper:
Pot, that's not AGW discussion, just venting about the Fla drought/heatwave. Us here in LA need a good soaking too. The "neutral grounds" (medians) are dying on St Charles Ave!

I know. It looks really bad, all this drought, fire, flood...
What next???
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24883
95 and humid here in South Florida. Can we just get 94L please?
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


What do you make of SSD pulling the low down to 17N Kman.


I am not sure it really makes a difference with such a broad diffuse surface low. Trying to pinpoint a true "center" is difficult at best and the change in position may simply be a reflection of the fact that it is meandering around some.

I wouldn't worry about it at all. It may go back to the East some or head off to the NW slowly or just hang around.
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104 here in Austin and dewpoint is 8
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Link
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18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest94
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129853
Quoting kmanislander:


If you get a chance take a look at my post 539

Just did that.
You still think an open wave is on the cards?
I had not thought about it, but it seems to be an option.
It's tried everything else LOL!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24883
guys ATL is for 90Ls


E PAC is 90Es



so in other word 91E is going too get name 1st




THERE IS NOT 91L IN TELL THE NEXT ROUND
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


What do you make of SSD pulling the low down to 17N Kman.


Cimms 850 seems to jive with that location as well. That's a full degree south of the last POS.

Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
To bad for you all in florida.I'm getting more rain in the forecast.
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99 in Tallahassee right now and very humid...Uggggg.
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Quoting kmanislander:


If you get a chance take a look at my post 539


What do you make of SSD pulling the low down to 17N Kman.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
I have noticed that 94l has it's convection more concentrated near the center any new indications of it becoming better organized .miami any new developments
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Quoting pottery:

Please keep all AGW discussion out of the blog, during periods of Extreme Weather.

:):))
Pot, that's not AGW discussion, just venting about the Fla drought/heatwave. Us here in LA need a good soaking too. The "neutral grounds" (medians) are dying on St Charles Ave!
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting RTLSNK:


99.6*F in Macon right now, 105 heat index, 36% humidity.

Would even take rain with lightning right now.

That's not nice at all, Snake.
Even for Reptiles.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24883
Quoting RTLSNK:


99.6*F in Macon right now, 105 heat index, 36% humidity.

Would even take rain with lightning right now.


In Fort Walton Beach were sitting at 91 with a Heat Index of 109, Humidity 70%. You can't move outside without sweating a ton!
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I got soaked,,as did 2 Bikers,,2 Kids and we all were lucky as the one strike took a 10 inch Limb right off a 250 yr old old,100ft away.

Now that got my attention.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129853
Quoting hurricaneben:


50%. 91E however could be declared TD-1E at any minute now.
To be honest I even forgot that their was an area of intrest in the pacific.Becuase how can I put it...IDC about it?
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what woud happen if 94L moves E
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Quoting pottery:
Heh!.
I am looking at the overall picture with 94L.
The area of disturbed weather is huge, and more moisture is coming in all the time.
I hope that the forecasts are correct, with the shear and the other negative aspects.
Otherwise this thing could get really weird in the GOM.

Great System!
Has everyone Flummoxed.


If you get a chance take a look at my post 539
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
What's new with 94l just signed back on


Well, according to a post above, it has been renumbered 91L and rapidly intensified to a cat 5. Other than that, I guess not much! ;-)
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Groth that is correct we got ash showers in East Central Broward for weeks.
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Quoting Patrap:


I went with a bad decision,,thought the cell was heading across the River,,but it sat and expanded Pottery.



Was a wArned cell but too late for me..


WHOA!!
Not good.
And a 21 drop is a big one, when you are getting wet and winds are blowing.
Put aside the Fresca. It's Hot Chocolate time for you LOL.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24883
Quoting rmbjoe1954:


Hint: Florida has never gone more than 5 years without getting directly impacted by a tropical system.


That may not be entirely accurate.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Quoting Seflhurricane:
What's new with 94l just signed back on


50%. 91E however could be declared TD-1E at any minute now.
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Quoting NoNamePub:


Good Call Dan - COnsider it done.
Was actually in Kailua Town Pub when the Lights went off saturday... Someone even spotted a funnel cloud....RARE over here...


TRAITOR!!!!! lol
People were probably looking at it and wondering: What is that thing coming out of the sky? Is Lono mad with us?
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting pottery:

You got no warning?
I hate being outside in lightening.
Dont like it one bit!


99.6*F in Macon right now, 105 heat index, 36% humidity.

Would even take rain with lightning right now.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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