Little change to 94L; exceptional heat in Texas, record rains in California

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 06, 2011

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There is not much change to report on the large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Western Caribbean, between Jamaica and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The disturbance has brought intermittent heavy rains to Jamaica over the past two days, but nearby islands have thus far escaped the deluge. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1" per hour occurred in ocean regions just east of Jamaica this morning, but the heaviest rains have missed the island so far this morning. Visible satellite loops show no increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, and the storm's low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are poorly defined. The storm's center of low pressure is located about 130 miles south of Grand Cayman Island, in a region with no heavy thunderstorm activity. An intense clump of thunderstorms exists on either side of this low, near Jamaica, and just east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Water vapor satellite loops show the Caribbean has moistened over the past two days, and upper air balloon soundings from the Cayman Islands continue to show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 69% last night.) Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through tonight. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1" per hour (orange colors) were estimated by the F-17 satellite for 94L at 7:03am EDT Jun 6, 2011. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Since 94L is so large and poorly organized, today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 00Z and 06Z model runs were unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. A band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models show 94L pushing slowly northwest at about 5 mph, hitting this shear on Tuesday and Wednesday, preventing any further development. The NOGAPS model predicts that a gap may open up in the shear sufficient for the storm to organize into a tropical depression late this week. Given 94L's current disorganization, I doubt the storm will ever develop. NHC gave 94L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, and I believe these odds should be lower, near 20%. Regardless of development, 94L is capable of bringing very heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti through Wednesday. These rains will probably spread northwards into South Florida and the Bahama Islands by Thursday or Friday.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Exceptional heat in the South
A sizzling June heat wave set record high temperatures across much of Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. The high temperature at the Houston, Texas airport hit 105 degrees, the warmest temperature ever recorded in the month of June (old record: 104 degrees on June 24th and June 26th, 2009.) The earliest Houston ever recorded a temperature of 105 degrees prior to Sunday was July 26th, 1954. Records for Houston date back to 1891. There have been only 15 days in which the temperature has reached or exceeded 105 degrees in Houston:

4 - 1909
1 - 1954
2 - 1962
3 - 1980
5 - 2000

So far this month, new maximum temperature records in Houston have been established on four out of the first five days. Galveston and Houston both crushed their previous record high temperature for the day (June 5th) by a remarkable seven degrees. Residents can expect another day of triple-digit heat today, thanks to the upper level ridge of high pressure parked over the state. Houston will likely break the old record of 98°F for the date.


Figure 3. An intense low pressure system moves inland over California as seen in this satellite photo taken June 4, 2011, at 2pm PDT. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Record rains in California
A large and unusually intense low pressure system moved inland over California over the weekend, bringing large areas of the state rains unheard of in June. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, rainfall at Mining Ridge on the Big Sur coast totaled 8.31" Sunday, which, if verified, would be California's heaviest 1-day June rainstorm on record. According to the document "Historic Rainstorms in California" Dept. of Water Resources, Aug. 1997, the previous maximum June daily rainfall was 5.83" at Forni Ridge on June 18, 1982. San Francisco had its 2nd greatest June 1-day rainfall, going back to 1850, and both the San Francisco and Oakland airport have now had their rainiest Junes on record. Rainfall at Santa Barbara Airport yesterday totaled 1.24 inches, the wettest June day there on record (previous record: 0.51" on June 5, 2009.) The 1.38"of rain so far this June has made it the wettest June in recorded history at Santa Barbara Airport, going back to 1941.

Jeff Masters

Sunny California? (turnuptheheat)
Normally June should be warm and dry. Many areas have had more rainfall in one day than they usually get in the entire month of June. All due to this system: http://www.wunderground.com/data/images/GOES_CA_STORM.jpg
Sunny California?

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Quoting sunlinepr:
Jeanny..... RUN Forest, RUN - All time favorite at home...
...Anyway, like I was sayin', shrimp is the fruit of the sea. You can barbecue it, boil it, broil it, bake it, saute it. Dey's uh, shrimp-kabobs, shrimp creole, shrimp gumbo. Pan fried, deep fried, stir-fried. There's pineapple shrimp, lemon shrimp, coconut shrimp, pepper shrimp, shrimp soup, shrimp stew, shrimp salad, shrimp and potatoes, shrimp burger, shrimp sandwich. That- that's about it.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
anyone notice that refiring of convection? its not significant but its continuing to have small burst of convection.


Refiring to the east of the CoC though, it's the west where it's going to suffer.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
ty wn

No prob.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Banding continues to improve and build closer to the center. While a lot of the older convection is dying and moving away, banding is developing closer to the center. I think this thing is far from done...

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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I said it first! lol


Blast. Congratulations! Lol
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

888mb. Wilma was 882.
ty wn
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anyone notice that refiring of convection? its not significant but its continuing to have small burst of convection.
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


888, Wilma was the lowest, with 882.

I said it first! lol
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
what was gilberts lowest pressure? was it 882mb or 888mb?

888mb
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
what was gilberts lowest pressure? was it 882mb or 888mb?


888, Wilma was the lowest, with 882.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:

IT'S RAINING!!!!



congrats!!
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
what was gilberts lowest pressure? was it 882mb or 888mb?

888mb. Wilma was 882.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
rain cometh for the se


Amen.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
The potatoes are gonna' get mashed!
...if it ever dries out enough to plant'em!
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
everybody tell the truth, we would prefer to see this instead of 94L
what was gilberts lowest pressure? was it 882mb or 888mb?
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rain cometh for the se
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Quoting Chicklit:
LinkwvLOOP

This is a good overall view.
Why does it look like the bands of rain are going the wrong way?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
here's more food for thought:

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Here is part of the article by Klotzbach on the inverse relationship I was referring to and the link.

Another relationship that has been noted in previous years but has been documented more thoroughly recently is the inverse relationship between Atlantic and eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone activity (Lander and Guard 1998, Elsner and Kara 1999, Klotzbach 2006, Wang and Lee 2009, Collins 2010, Wang and Lee 2010). When Atlantic activity is heightened, eastern North Pacific activity tends to be reduced and vice versa. Wang and Lee (2009) demonstrate an out-of-phase relationship between the two basins and the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index (Bell et al. 2000). They demonstrate that this relationship is likely due to the fact that same-signed upper-level wind anomalies act to increase vertical wind shear in one basin while reducing it in the other basin, due to the fact that climatological upper-level winds are westerly in the Atlantic, while they are easterly in the eastern North Pacific. Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) also is observed to typically be of opposite sign between the two basins. Collins (2010) shows that the inverse relationship is primarily due to storms forming in the western part of the eastern North Pacific basin (likely due to the ENSO signal discussed in the previous paragraph).

Link
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IT'S RAINING!!!!



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94L can live through anything. Why else would we be with it today?
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
thay system 94L looks to seem to head in the GOM by this weekend
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Quoting cg2916:
Has 94L gotten more organized this afternoon?


Ehh, nope. Convection starting to wane from DMIN, too.
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Quoting CatfishJones:
...a nice discussion on capitalism and schizophrenia...


Times that you'd like to be a fly on the wall...
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Quoting cg2916:
Has 94L gotten more organized this afternoon?



no
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 907
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
everybody tell the truth, we would prefer to see this instead of 94L
i was in naples florida during gilbert, remember seeing the outflow whisk by
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LinkwvLOOP

This is a good overall view.
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700. CatfishJones 9:37 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
What just happened on the gulf coast? I was having a nice discussion on capitalism and schizophrenia, took a break to check the weather and BOOM.
Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: May 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 39


gulf tropical sea breeze conditions in effect next 72
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Has 94L gotten more organized this afternoon?
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everybody tell the truth, we would prefer to see this instead of 94L
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Now I've seen it all. :(

Idaho Tornado Warning
The potatoes are gonna' get mashed!
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Quoting HCW:


I bet that it stays the same at 8pm
i bet it won't window of poss dev closes very soon this has be a rain maker nothing more
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What just happened on the gulf coast? I was having a nice discussion on capitalism and schizophrenia, took a break to check the weather and BOOM.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Looks like where Forest Gump was running when he threw off his crutches.
Jeanny..... RUN Forest, RUN - All time favorite at home...
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Quoting kmanislander:


This loop shows an outflow boundary rushing away from the low near 18N 85 W and heading towards the WSW, a classic sign of collapsing thunderstorms. This is not surprising given the rate at which the cloud tops are warming.


Also, the curved bands, on the E and NE side are looking pretty good right now. Need to watch and see what these bands can do.
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Still waiting for something to bring some water to North Central FL. SOOOOO dry. One misplaced cigarette up here will toast hundreds of acres.

From what I've seen in here last night and tonight, it doesn't look like 94 will bring much relief either, although it HAS been a season of surprises....

I keep hoping. Time for rain dance maybe...
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The water level in Lake Okeechobee has fallen below 10 feet above sea level for the first time since 2007.
RAIN,RAIN,RAIN
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94L is not for the IMPATIENT!!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
Quoting kmanislander:


This loop shows an outflow boundary rushing away from the low near 18N 85 W and heading towards the WSW, a classic sign of collapsing thunderstorms. This is not surprising given the rate at which the cloud tops are warming.


As jumpy as this system has been, it won't surprise me one bit if the thunderstorms flare right back up again. It appears dmin is going to hurt it today.
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692. HCW
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Percentage drop at 8:00 p.m.



I bet that it stays the same at 8pm
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Quoting Patrap:
#681

Same row,,,further down toward St. Charles Ave.




Looks like where Forest Gump was running when he threw off his crutches.
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Now I've seen it all. :(

Idaho Tornado Warning
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Just want to point out that if the E-Pac season kicks off with this first storm, and 94L dissipates, it might be a while before we get another viable system on the Atlantic side.....There has been talk on here in past years on that observed "inverse" relationship, in terms of storm activity, in the E-Pac v. Atlantic Basin. If the E-pac really fires up, as it should this time of the year, and perhaps related to the MJO moving over to the Pacific side, I would not be surprised if we did not get something on the Atlantic side until July but nothing is written in stone.
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


May just give up for the evening then have one last go at flaring enough convection overnight.


This loop shows an outflow boundary rushing away from the low near 18N 85 W and heading towards the WSW, a classic sign of collapsing thunderstorms. This is not surprising given the rate at which the cloud tops are warming.
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Percentage drop at 8:00 p.m.

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Quoting kmanislander:


Warming cloud tops evident everywhere on the WV loop. Does not bode well for 94L


May just give up for the evening then have one last go at flaring enough convection overnight.
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All this and not even a drop over my house same thing happend yeasterday bummer!

Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
#681

Same row,,,further down toward St. Charles Ave.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129780
Quoting Grothar:


Remember how the cars were completely covered with ash. There was so much on the ground, it looked like snow.


I was only 13 but I remember it well they cancelled our baseball camp that summer
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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