Little change to 94L; exceptional heat in Texas, record rains in California

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 06, 2011

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There is not much change to report on the large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Western Caribbean, between Jamaica and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The disturbance has brought intermittent heavy rains to Jamaica over the past two days, but nearby islands have thus far escaped the deluge. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1" per hour occurred in ocean regions just east of Jamaica this morning, but the heaviest rains have missed the island so far this morning. Visible satellite loops show no increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, and the storm's low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are poorly defined. The storm's center of low pressure is located about 130 miles south of Grand Cayman Island, in a region with no heavy thunderstorm activity. An intense clump of thunderstorms exists on either side of this low, near Jamaica, and just east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Water vapor satellite loops show the Caribbean has moistened over the past two days, and upper air balloon soundings from the Cayman Islands continue to show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 69% last night.) Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through tonight. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1" per hour (orange colors) were estimated by the F-17 satellite for 94L at 7:03am EDT Jun 6, 2011. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Since 94L is so large and poorly organized, today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 00Z and 06Z model runs were unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. A band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models show 94L pushing slowly northwest at about 5 mph, hitting this shear on Tuesday and Wednesday, preventing any further development. The NOGAPS model predicts that a gap may open up in the shear sufficient for the storm to organize into a tropical depression late this week. Given 94L's current disorganization, I doubt the storm will ever develop. NHC gave 94L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, and I believe these odds should be lower, near 20%. Regardless of development, 94L is capable of bringing very heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti through Wednesday. These rains will probably spread northwards into South Florida and the Bahama Islands by Thursday or Friday.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Exceptional heat in the South
A sizzling June heat wave set record high temperatures across much of Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. The high temperature at the Houston, Texas airport hit 105 degrees, the warmest temperature ever recorded in the month of June (old record: 104 degrees on June 24th and June 26th, 2009.) The earliest Houston ever recorded a temperature of 105 degrees prior to Sunday was July 26th, 1954. Records for Houston date back to 1891. There have been only 15 days in which the temperature has reached or exceeded 105 degrees in Houston:

4 - 1909
1 - 1954
2 - 1962
3 - 1980
5 - 2000

So far this month, new maximum temperature records in Houston have been established on four out of the first five days. Galveston and Houston both crushed their previous record high temperature for the day (June 5th) by a remarkable seven degrees. Residents can expect another day of triple-digit heat today, thanks to the upper level ridge of high pressure parked over the state. Houston will likely break the old record of 98°F for the date.


Figure 3. An intense low pressure system moves inland over California as seen in this satellite photo taken June 4, 2011, at 2pm PDT. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Record rains in California
A large and unusually intense low pressure system moved inland over California over the weekend, bringing large areas of the state rains unheard of in June. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, rainfall at Mining Ridge on the Big Sur coast totaled 8.31" Sunday, which, if verified, would be California's heaviest 1-day June rainstorm on record. According to the document "Historic Rainstorms in California" Dept. of Water Resources, Aug. 1997, the previous maximum June daily rainfall was 5.83" at Forni Ridge on June 18, 1982. San Francisco had its 2nd greatest June 1-day rainfall, going back to 1850, and both the San Francisco and Oakland airport have now had their rainiest Junes on record. Rainfall at Santa Barbara Airport yesterday totaled 1.24 inches, the wettest June day there on record (previous record: 0.51" on June 5, 2009.) The 1.38"of rain so far this June has made it the wettest June in recorded history at Santa Barbara Airport, going back to 1941.

Jeff Masters

Sunny California? (turnuptheheat)
Normally June should be warm and dry. Many areas have had more rainfall in one day than they usually get in the entire month of June. All due to this system: http://www.wunderground.com/data/images/GOES_CA_STORM.jpg
Sunny California?

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Quoting CybrTeddy:


DMIN.. DMIN.. DMIN.. sing it with me. LOL.

*DMIN* If you say it out loud it sounds as if you're saying "demon".
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
As long as it brings Florida rain...DMIN DMIN DMIN!


What do you think about the lack of organization. I think it's done, but stranger things have happened.
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Oh my, the weather feels great outside...Nice, cool, sprinkling...Did you get that??? It's sprinkling...AWESOME!!!
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A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for IDAHO.
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 904
Quoting TexasWynd:


my home town! nice to know I need more rain in NE Houston


Hope you get it. :)
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I did a full list (as best as I could) of most intense hurricanes last year: Link
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


DMIN.. DMIN.. DMIN.. sing it with me. LOL.
As long as it brings Florida rain...DMIN DMIN DMIN!
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Thanks Joe. Just saw these. It's getting pretty rocky in other places of my county. My mom just called saying they're getting hail. We haven't here so far. Hopefully that'll be the worst of it.

06/06/2011 0334 PM

5 miles NNW of Vidor, Orange County.

Hail e1.00 inch, reported by law enforcement.



Pine Forest, Orange County.

Hail e1.00 inch, reported by public.



06/06/2011 0356 PM

Vidor, Orange County.

Hail e1.00 inch, reported by public.



06/06/2011 0357 PM

Vidor, Orange County.

Thunderstorm wind gust e60.00 mph, reported by public.



Vidor, Orange County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by broadcast media.


Trees and power poles down off FM 1131.


06/06/2011 0412 PM

Vidor, Orange County.

Hail e1.00 inch, reported by broadcast media.






06/06/2011 0412 PM

Vidor, Orange County.

Hail e1.00 inch, reported by broadcast media.



06/06/2011 0404 PM

Vidor, Orange County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by broadcast media.


Trees and power poles down off FM 1131.


06/06/2011 0357 PM

Vidor, Orange County.

Thunderstorm wind gust e60 mph, reported by public.


06/06/2011 0356 PM

Vidor, Orange County.

Hail e1.00 inch, reported by public.


06/06/2011 0347 PM

Pine Forest, Orange County.

Hail e1.00 inch, reported by public.


06/06/2011 0334 PM

5 miles NNW of Vidor, Orange County.

Hail e1.00 inch, reported by law enforcement.





my home town! nice to know I need more rain in NE Houston
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Can y'all hear the cOllective sigh of relief from SE TX?

THIS is nice. :)

Orange, Texas (Airport)
Updated: 16 min 57 sec ago
Light Thunderstorms and Rain
70 °F
Light Thunderstorm Rain
Humidity: 83%
Dew Point: 64 °F
Wind: 5 mph from the SW
Pressure: 29.92 in (Falling)
Visibility: 7.0 miles
UV: 2 out of 16
Pollen: 5.10 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 1600 ft
Mostly Cloudy 6000 ft
Overcast 11000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 13 ft
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Hurricane Dean of 2007 had a pressure of 905 and was tied for 7th with the strongest Atlantic hurricane fwiw. That was the last time we've had a sub 920mb Hurricane in the Atlantic.

After 2007, the strongest was Igor, at 924mb.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting lat25five:
Hi folks, long time lurker thought I would join the fun this year.
Grothar & any other old time Floridians ..
? for you all. Anyone know any local lore
involving correlation of Ibis pop. and hurricane season?

At least down here I have never seen so many Ibis broods and large number of hatchlings.
Maybe just compensating for the drought.

Generally indicates a lot of grubs in your lawn, tied in with dry weather as well, The ibis is the symbol of the university of miami which also indicates serious weakness and issues.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Convection continues to die. Uh oh... RIP?


DMIN.. DMIN.. DMIN.. sing it with me. LOL.
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hey I was wundering if one of you guys create a map with this info thanks
VIS FLOATER #2 STATION LOCATION, WIND DIR, PRES,
42057 (S)1006MB
LCIY2 (ENE)1008MB
42056 (NE)1009MB
42058 (SSE)1009MB
GCM (ENE) 1007MB
MOBAY,JAM (E) 1007MB
PUERTO LEMPIRA, HON (N) 1008MB
ROTAN, HON (N) 1008
PUERTO CABEZAS, NIC (E) 1007MB

please thanks
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12349
So Tropical Depression 1E, no problem, just going to ride up the coast of Mexico and go out to sea... No real biggee... 94L isn't unwanted either, The south needs the rain... So our active systems are feeling the love right now...
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I counted 40 points for TCFA earlier. Someone check me.
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Quoting Jedkins01:
For those of you in Florida, hang in cause the rain season will be kicking in soon!


I'm getting discouraged. I'll believe it when I see it. My neighborhood seems to have a protective shield.
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Convection continues to die. Uh oh... RIP?
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From the Meteorological Service of Jamaica:

June 06, 2011 at 5:00 p.m.

*** FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES AS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ORGANISED***

The Meteorological Service has continued the Flash Flood Warning for low-lying and flood-prone areas of St Mary, Portland, St Thomas, Kingston and St Andrew, St Catherine, Clarendon, Manchester, and St. Elizabeth until 5:00 a.m. tomorrow. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for all other parishes also until 5:00 a.m. tomorrow.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING means flooding has been reported or will occur shortly. Motorists and pedestrians should not attempt to cross flooded roadways or other low-lying areas as strong currents are likely. Residents in low-lying areas should be on the alert for rising waters and be ready to move quickly to higher ground.

The Area of Low Pressure over the Caribbean Sea began moving slowly toward the northwest during the course of today and is now located west of Jamaica. Satellite imagery and RADAR reports indicate that light to moderate showers affected all parishes today, with heavy showers mainly across central parishes.

The Area of Low Pressure is gradually becoming better organised and additional strengthening is possible. Consequently, periods of showers and thunderstorms, which could be heavy at times, are forecast to continue affecting most parishes tonight and tomorrow. A gradual reduction in rainfall is expected after Tuesday.

Fishers and other marine interests are advised to exercise extreme caution, as strong winds and rough sea conditions are expected in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms.


The Area of Low Pressure currently has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and the Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the progress of this system.
kjg/nch
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764. j2008
Quoting cg2916:
Poll:

A. 94L will organize and not be as broad in the morning

B. 94L will not organize and will not get its act together

C. Not sure

I say C, I think we will all need to give this a chance and wait and see what happens.
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The Idaho tornado didn't last long after it hit these...



Sawtooth Mountains.
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Meanwhile...more fires. Maybe the rain will help with that danger.

Wildfires continue to burn in several counties Link

And more heat

Salvation Army open cooling station in Beaumont



If you are looking for a place to escape the heat, The Salvation Army now has their cooling station open.


The cooling station is located at 1490 North 7th Street in Beaumont.

The station is open Monday through Friday between the hours are from 9 a.m. and 11:30 a.m., and also 1:15 p.m. and 4:15 p.m.

On the weekend, an emergency shelter will be located at 2350 Interstate 10 East in Beaumont.

There is no cost to stay during extreme temperatures, and there's a free dinner served in the dining room.
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Poll:

A. 94L will organize and not be as broad in the morning

B. 94L will not organize and will not get its act together

C. Not sure
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
lots of rain coming copius amounts maybe as 94 lifts up and out next 3 to 5 days
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Hurricane Dean of 2007 had a pressure of 905 and was tied for 7th with the strongest Atlantic hurricane fwiw. That was the last time we've had a sub 920mb Hurricane in the Atlantic.
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For those of you in Florida, hang in cause the rain season will be kicking in soon!
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Quoting fatlady99:


Yah, but all we are getting is summer rains. Once or twice a day we get 14.5 minutes of spitting and dripping, and then about 30 seconds of actual water from the sky. Then it stops and the sun comes back out, the temps go back up to 98F and the humidity is somewhere near 99.99999% for the next hour.
better than nothing
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thank you cybrteddy, for the correction...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi folks, long time lurker thought I would join the fun this year.
Grothar & any other old time Floridians ..
? for you all. Anyone know any local lore
involving correlation of Ibis pop. and hurricane season?

At least down here I have never seen so many Ibis broods and large number of hatchlings.
Maybe just compensating for the drought.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PcolaDan:
AWESOME pictures of the Chile volcano eruption.

That's alot of lightning. Epic pics.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


I'd question the accuracy of that, wasn't Emily 929 and Dennis 930?

Will have to check in a trustable link like NHC or Noaa

The link source I used was:
http://www.wxresearch.com/hurpres.htm

Link

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Quoting Patrap:
#681

Same row,,,further down toward St. Charles Ave.




My first time posting, but long time lurker. You're in my neck o' the woods here. That was some thunder and lighting. Felt nice at the time but now it's just hot and really muggy again. Glad you made it safely outta the park! Like checking out everyone's posts, even though I know next to nothing. Y'all keep me informed. Thanks.
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94L is probably not going to make it, but Jamaica is now reporting a pressure that is equivalent to the low (5 PM (21) Jun 06 29.74 (1007)). Also looks like some organization on radar.
Member Since: July 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1347
Bands of heavy rain now on Jamaica's Western end.
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AWESOME pictures of the Chile volcano eruption.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Not weather related, but a great story.

Bank of America Gets Pad Locked After Homeowner Forecloses On It


That is amazing!
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Quoting sunlinepr:
LOWEST BAROMETRIC PRESSURES IN ATLANTIC HURRICANES
------------------------------------------------- -----------
2005 Hurricane Wilma 882.mb
1988 Hurricane Gilbert 26.14 in 888.2 mb
1935 Florida Keys 26.35 in. 892.3 mb
2005 Hurricane Rita 897 mb
1980 Hurricane Allen 26.35 in. 899.1 mb
2005 Hurricane Katrina 902 mb
1998 Hurricane Mitch 905 mb
1969 Hurricane Camille 26.84 in. 908.9 mb
2004 Hurricane Ivan 910 mb
2003 Hurricane Isabel 915 mb
1989 Hurricane Hugo 27.11 in 918 mb
1992 Hurricane Andrew 27.23 in 922 mb
1919 Texas Hurricane 27.37 in. 926.9 mb
1928 Okeechobee, Fl 27.43 in. 928.9 mb
1960 Hurricane Donna 27.46 in. 929.9 mb
1900 Galveston Hurricane 27.49 in. 930.9 mb
1909 Louisiana Hurricane 27.49 in. 930.9 mb
1915 Louisiana Hurricane 27.49 in. 930.9 mb
1961 Hurricane Carla 27.49 in. 930.9 mb


I'd question the accuracy of that, wasn't Emily 929 and Dennis 930?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
...Anyway, like I was sayin', shrimp is the fruit of the sea. You can barbecue it, boil it, broil it, bake it, saute it. Dey's uh, shrimp-kabobs, shrimp creole, shrimp gumbo.%uFEFF Pan fried, deep fried, stir-fried. There's pineapple shrimp, lemon shrimp, coconut shrimp, pepper shrimp, shrimp soup, shrimp stew, shrimp salad, shrimp and potatoes, shrimp burger, shrimp sandwich. That- that's about it.


My momma always said, "Life was like a box of chocolates. You never know what you're gonna get."
Mama always said, dying was a part of life.
Stupid is as stupid does.
My name's Forrest Gump. People call me Forrest Gump.
that's all I have to say about that.

Big chunk of rain coming to us....

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Looking rather anemic at the moment however, I just ran through the latest from CIMSS and it may be reversing course. 850 has consolidated and increased around 17N and shear is dropping in the area again. Still no convergence though still supported by trough in the GOM. On the fence right now....

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Quoting Walshy:



no


This is incorrect, 94L has or the NHC wouldn't have raised the probabilities.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
congrats!!


Thanks Joe. Just saw these. It's getting pretty rocky in other places of my county. My mom just called saying they're getting hail. We haven't here so far. Hopefully that'll be the worst of it.

06/06/2011 0334 PM

5 miles NNW of Vidor, Orange County.

Hail e1.00 inch, reported by law enforcement.



Pine Forest, Orange County.

Hail e1.00 inch, reported by public.



06/06/2011 0356 PM

Vidor, Orange County.

Hail e1.00 inch, reported by public.



06/06/2011 0357 PM

Vidor, Orange County.

Thunderstorm wind gust e60.00 mph, reported by public.



Vidor, Orange County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by broadcast media.


Trees and power poles down off FM 1131.


06/06/2011 0412 PM

Vidor, Orange County.

Hail e1.00 inch, reported by broadcast media.






06/06/2011 0412 PM

Vidor, Orange County.

Hail e1.00 inch, reported by broadcast media.



06/06/2011 0404 PM

Vidor, Orange County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by broadcast media.


Trees and power poles down off FM 1131.


06/06/2011 0357 PM

Vidor, Orange County.

Thunderstorm wind gust e60 mph, reported by public.


06/06/2011 0356 PM

Vidor, Orange County.

Hail e1.00 inch, reported by public.


06/06/2011 0347 PM

Pine Forest, Orange County.

Hail e1.00 inch, reported by public.


06/06/2011 0334 PM

5 miles NNW of Vidor, Orange County.

Hail e1.00 inch, reported by law enforcement.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
LOWEST BAROMETRIC PRESSURES IN ATLANTIC HURRICANES
------------------------------------------------- -----------
2005 Hurricane Wilma 882.mb
1988 Hurricane Gilbert 26.14 in 888.2 mb
1935 Florida Keys 26.35 in. 892.3 mb
2005 Hurricane Rita 897 mb
1980 Hurricane Allen 26.35 in. 899.1 mb
2005 Hurricane Katrina 902 mb
1998 Hurricane Mitch 905 mb
1969 Hurricane Camille 26.84 in. 908.9 mb
2004 Hurricane Ivan 910 mb
2003 Hurricane Isabel 915 mb
1989 Hurricane Hugo 27.11 in 918 mb
1992 Hurricane Andrew 27.23 in 922 mb
1919 Texas Hurricane 27.37 in. 926.9 mb
1928 Okeechobee, Fl 27.43 in. 928.9 mb
1960 Hurricane Donna 27.46 in. 929.9 mb
1900 Galveston Hurricane 27.49 in. 930.9 mb
1909 Louisiana Hurricane 27.49 in. 930.9 mb
1915 Louisiana Hurricane 27.49 in. 930.9 mb
1961 Hurricane Carla 27.49 in. 930.9 mb
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Another thing I am seeing on visible is that the mid-level low that has been hanging around for over a day, close to Jamaica, is filling in finally and moving away. I think it has been robbing the center of 94L of some energy and helping displace the focus of energy into one centralized location. It looks like the actual center of 94L is responding to that now by firing up bands of convection. We will see. It could be just a temporary thing.
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Quoting cg2916:
I was high on this system, but now that it can't organize itself, I don't know. Wouldn't be surprised at a 30%.

Well the TWO is in about 2 hours. Maybe it'll reorganize or die trying.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
rain cometh for the se


Yah, but all we are getting is summer rains. Once or twice a day we get 14.5 minutes of spitting and dripping, and then about 30 seconds of actual water from the sky. Then it stops and the sun comes back out, the temps go back up to 98F and the humidity is somewhere near 99.99999% for the next hour.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Do people notice that there is low level convergence, and decent upper divergence, with a small vorticity area south of puerto rico with disorganized convection. maybe next invest if it gets more impressive that is...

Dunno about 94L, well its very broad...
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Not weather related, but a great story.

Bank of America Gets Pad Locked After Homeowner Forecloses On It
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I'd say we'll stay at 50%, time is still running out but nothing much has changed. Couple of hours away though, we'll have to see.
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I was high on this system, but now that it can't organize itself, I don't know. Wouldn't be surprised at a 30%.
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Jeanny..... RUN Forest, RUN - All time favorite at home...
...Anyway, like I was sayin', shrimp is the fruit of the sea. You can barbecue it, boil it, broil it, bake it, saute it. Dey's uh, shrimp-kabobs, shrimp creole, shrimp gumbo. Pan fried, deep fried, stir-fried. There's pineapple shrimp, lemon shrimp, coconut shrimp, pepper shrimp, shrimp soup, shrimp stew, shrimp salad, shrimp and potatoes, shrimp burger, shrimp sandwich. That- that's about it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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