Little change to 94L; exceptional heat in Texas, record rains in California

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 06, 2011

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There is not much change to report on the large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Western Caribbean, between Jamaica and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The disturbance has brought intermittent heavy rains to Jamaica over the past two days, but nearby islands have thus far escaped the deluge. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1" per hour occurred in ocean regions just east of Jamaica this morning, but the heaviest rains have missed the island so far this morning. Visible satellite loops show no increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, and the storm's low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are poorly defined. The storm's center of low pressure is located about 130 miles south of Grand Cayman Island, in a region with no heavy thunderstorm activity. An intense clump of thunderstorms exists on either side of this low, near Jamaica, and just east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Water vapor satellite loops show the Caribbean has moistened over the past two days, and upper air balloon soundings from the Cayman Islands continue to show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 69% last night.) Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through tonight. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1" per hour (orange colors) were estimated by the F-17 satellite for 94L at 7:03am EDT Jun 6, 2011. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Since 94L is so large and poorly organized, today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 00Z and 06Z model runs were unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. A band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models show 94L pushing slowly northwest at about 5 mph, hitting this shear on Tuesday and Wednesday, preventing any further development. The NOGAPS model predicts that a gap may open up in the shear sufficient for the storm to organize into a tropical depression late this week. Given 94L's current disorganization, I doubt the storm will ever develop. NHC gave 94L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, and I believe these odds should be lower, near 20%. Regardless of development, 94L is capable of bringing very heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti through Wednesday. These rains will probably spread northwards into South Florida and the Bahama Islands by Thursday or Friday.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Exceptional heat in the South
A sizzling June heat wave set record high temperatures across much of Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. The high temperature at the Houston, Texas airport hit 105 degrees, the warmest temperature ever recorded in the month of June (old record: 104 degrees on June 24th and June 26th, 2009.) The earliest Houston ever recorded a temperature of 105 degrees prior to Sunday was July 26th, 1954. Records for Houston date back to 1891. There have been only 15 days in which the temperature has reached or exceeded 105 degrees in Houston:

4 - 1909
1 - 1954
2 - 1962
3 - 1980
5 - 2000

So far this month, new maximum temperature records in Houston have been established on four out of the first five days. Galveston and Houston both crushed their previous record high temperature for the day (June 5th) by a remarkable seven degrees. Residents can expect another day of triple-digit heat today, thanks to the upper level ridge of high pressure parked over the state. Houston will likely break the old record of 98°F for the date.


Figure 3. An intense low pressure system moves inland over California as seen in this satellite photo taken June 4, 2011, at 2pm PDT. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Record rains in California
A large and unusually intense low pressure system moved inland over California over the weekend, bringing large areas of the state rains unheard of in June. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, rainfall at Mining Ridge on the Big Sur coast totaled 8.31" Sunday, which, if verified, would be California's heaviest 1-day June rainstorm on record. According to the document "Historic Rainstorms in California" Dept. of Water Resources, Aug. 1997, the previous maximum June daily rainfall was 5.83" at Forni Ridge on June 18, 1982. San Francisco had its 2nd greatest June 1-day rainfall, going back to 1850, and both the San Francisco and Oakland airport have now had their rainiest Junes on record. Rainfall at Santa Barbara Airport yesterday totaled 1.24 inches, the wettest June day there on record (previous record: 0.51" on June 5, 2009.) The 1.38"of rain so far this June has made it the wettest June in recorded history at Santa Barbara Airport, going back to 1941.

Jeff Masters

Sunny California? (turnuptheheat)
Normally June should be warm and dry. Many areas have had more rainfall in one day than they usually get in the entire month of June. All due to this system: http://www.wunderground.com/data/images/GOES_CA_STORM.jpg
Sunny California?

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This is clearest I have seen the low look around 17.8/81.9, though convection is waning it looks more organized than last night to meLink would not be surprised at all if it stayed at 50% 8pm or even go up to 60%.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
Quoting iahishome:
Dang... I'm still too slow. For the record, there were no explanations visible when I typed that last one.

I didn't even know John Madden was a meteorologist...

"You see those clouds over there? Those are cumulonimbus clouds. They're called that because they've accumulated a lot of nimbleness over the years... Here's a cloud that can drop a lot of rain and then next thing you know... BOOM, you got the lighting over here and the thunder over there..."


ROFLMAO WELL DONE!!!!!!!!
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
I see LLC now at 17.9N/18.0N 83.2W/83.3W at 22:15
before 18.2N 83.3W at 21:45 and before that at 19:45 was at 18.4N 83.1W so its moving WSW
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Weather History:

Did you know that...

Early in the history of the United States, Salem, Mass. recorded a high temperature of 92 degrees on this date in 1816. A day later, the temperature would register at 49 degrees to mark the start of "The Year Without a Summer."
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 907
Quoting alfabob:
94L is probably not going to make it, but Jamaica is now reporting a pressure that is equivalent to the low (5 PM (21) Jun 06 29.74 (1007)). Also looks like some organization on radar.
alpha I really have no idea what you are talking about. I've been reading back over the blog since I just got home and you've been insisting that there is a surface low trying to form E of Jamaica or somewhere around Jamaica.

1. There is no evidence of a surface low East of Jamaica. Ascat has not passed over the area, in the last 24hrs so that is out of the question. The radar image you posted shows no organization. The only evidence you claim is the visible satellite loops, but it is pretty hard to make a valid conclusion on the surface winds based off of satellite imagery when there are mid level clouds in the way.

2. Pressures are not the same. The Kingston station has a latest pressure reading of 1009mb and the other station on Jamaica, Montego Bay, is reporting 1007mb. Meanwhile, buoy 42057 is reporting a pressure of 1005mb. Also, here's the pressure map

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
pressures are rising now 005.9 winds still NE-NNE
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Dang... I'm still too slow. For the record, there were no explanations visible when I typed that last one.

I didn't even know John Madden was a meteorologist...

"You see those clouds over there? Those are cumulonimbus clouds. They're called that because they've accumulated a lot of nimbleness over the years... Here's a cloud that can drop a lot of rain and then next thing you know... BOOM, you got the lighting over here and the thunder over there..."
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Quoting OrchidGrower:
Thanks for that info! Any idea when we go into that favorable phase of the MJO? (Lawn is becoming light tan and crispy ... [sigh])


Later this month and into the first of July.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
Quoting alfabob:

That is from 3:00 UTC, here is the new one.


it looks kinda elongated looks like it is streching to where the 850 Vort is centered at anyway I think that is where there LLC is going to end up off the coast od HON./NIC. near 82W S of 18N
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Thanks for that info! Any idea when we go into that favorable phase of the MJO? (Lawn is becoming light tan and crispy ... [sigh])
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Quoting OrchidGrower:
Okay, hate to show my ignorance but I didn't see this in the Blog glossary so I'll ask: What's MJO? Thanks!


Ooh... I Know I know!

I don't usually have the answer, but this is the Madden-Julian Oscillation.

Now I don't know the mechanism behind it, but apparently it causes "enhanced upper level divergence" which means basically, thunderstorms form easier when it is in the 'upward' phase.

Keep in mind this is kind of 'blind leading the blind' type advice, but I'm sure other bloggers will quickly point out the several errors I made above...
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Quoting masonsnana:
All the local mets backing off on the rain..any hope out there??
We can only hope, LOL.
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Quoting OrchidGrower:
Okay, hate to show my ignorance but I didn't see this in the Blog glossary so I'll ask: What's MJO? Thanks!


Madden–Julian oscillation

Someone else will have to give you a simple English version. :)
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
819. j2008
Quoting OrchidGrower:
Okay, hate to show my ignorance but I didn't see this in the Blog glossary so I'll ask: What's MJO? Thanks!

Madden Julian Ossolation, I think I spelled it wrong though.
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Quoting OrchidGrower:
Okay, hate to show my ignorance but I didn't see this in the Blog glossary so I'll ask: What's MJO? Thanks!


Madden-Julian oscillation.

In short, it makes conditions favorable for development, or more favorable I should say, wherever it is at. That is to say, if it is in the upward phase. There are two phases, upward and downward. Upward is good for development, downward suppresses it.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
817. txjac
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I am doing rain dances for anyone in the U.S.A. that needs rain, just saying. :)


We thank you very much
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Okay, hate to show my ignorance but I didn't see this in the Blog glossary so I'll ask: What's MJO? Thanks!
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Buoy 42057 is reporting a pressure of 1005.5 mb winds ssw.

1005mb? That's pretty low...
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low level steering wants to take it slowly WSW then S then ESE then E

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I am doing rain dances for anyone in the U.S.A. that needs rain, just saying. :)
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Quoting Mikla:
Latest ASCAT:

The elongated center has not moved much in over 24 hours. Though some of the thunderstorm activity has diminished, it is at least on both sides of the center. Conditions are still decent for development, though any development may not last long due to shear to the north.


No. That's very old. This is the latest one.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting fatlady99:


Yah, but all we are getting is summer rains. Once or twice a day we get 14.5 minutes of spitting and dripping, and then about 30 seconds of actual water from the sky. Then it stops and the sun comes back out, the temps go back up to 98F and the humidity is somewhere near 99.99999% for the next hour.
I would love to get 14.5 minutes of anything out of the sky, in Texas all we have is 105 and blowing dust!
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It appears as if 94L will not develop. However, for those who like to see development (Like myself in a way), it does appear that we could see our first named storms later on in the month and the first of July as the MJO comes into our basin.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
Well its good to see that there is no invest marked on the map in the bay of bengal yet gulp, very warm sst's there right now wouldn't take much for a system to explode in its intesnsity and quickly
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Buoy 42057 is reporting a pressure of 1005.5 mb winds ssw.

right now mine says 05.5mb and NE-NNE winds
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805. txjac
I'm happy to see SE Florida looking like they will get some rain
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94L doesn't have a lot of time left. I'm gonna give it a 20% chance of ever developing. It still needs quite a bit of time to get its act together.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys looking at the vis loop I can see the LLC it is becoming exposed at 18.2N 83.3W at 21:45 before at 19:45 was at 18.4N 83.1W so its moving WSW hey maybe it trying to run to where the 850 vort max is at 15.8N 82.0W prob. trying to save its self and head to the upper level anticyclone at the same location


I think I see a spin, but I don't see any evidence of it moving SW.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
Quoting alfabob:
94L is probably not going to make it, but Jamaica is now reporting a pressure that is equivalent to the low (5 PM (21) Jun 06 29.74 (1007)). Also looks like some organization on radar.
Buoy 42057 is reporting a pressure of 1005.5 mb winds ssw.
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levi 32 the party is over for 94L ..im sure you can see it..
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800. txjac
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys looking at the vis loop I can see the LLC it is becoming exposed at 18.2N 83.3W at 21:45 before at 19:45 was at 18.4N 83.1W so its moving WSW hey maybe it trying to run to where the 850 vort max is at 15.8N 82.0W prob. trying to save its self and head to the upper level anticyclone at the same location


Can a mass like that really do that? It just "chooses" the path of least resistance?
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799. Mikla
Latest ASCAT:

The elongated center has not moved much in over 24 hours. Though some of the thunderstorm activity has diminished, it is at least on both sides of the center. Conditions are still decent for development, though any development may not last long due to shear to the north.
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
everybody tell the truth, we would prefer to see this instead of 94L


That's because you didn't live through Gilbert and have no light, water or roof. Give me rain over hurricane any day.

The rain has started again so let's see what happens.
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hey guys looking at the vis loop I can see the LLC it is becoming exposed at 18.2N 83.3W at 21:45 before at 19:45 was at 18.4N 83.1W so its moving WSW hey maybe it trying to run to where the 850 vort max is at 15.8N 82.0W prob. trying to save its self and head to the upper level anticyclone at the same location
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796. jpsb
Quoting lazerpointernerd:


Down in the Clear Lake area, we havent had any rain yet with these storms. Just a lot of wind gusts. I was out in the backyard today and noticed that the clay ground was splitting open to depths of 4 feet or so. We need rain before my dachshund falls in one.
Same here in San Leon, no rain to speak of since last fall. Getting dificult to keep the yard, trees and garden alive.
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795. txjac
Quoting lazerpointernerd:


Down in the Clear Lake area, we havent had any rain yet with these storms. Just a lot of wind gusts. I was out in the backyard today and noticed that the clay ground was splitting open to depths of 4 feet or so. We need rain before my dachshund falls in one.



I havent gotten much either ...lots of wind though. About 50,000 people without power yesterday evening. Couldnt take that without AC. With the cloud cover we have it's dropped the temp by about 15 degrees so I'm loving that
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94L's central pressure is now down to 1005mb, but all of the convection around the circulation seems to be migrating northeast, a sign of strong shearing. It will be hard for 94L to organize better than this. Diurnal maximum overnight tonight will be its last real chance.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
As long as it brings Florida rain...DMIN DMIN DMIN!
All the local mets backing off on the rain..any hope out there??
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Quoting cg2916:


What do you think about the lack of organization. I think it's done, but stranger things have happened.
Hopefully it's done for so we don't have anymore headaches from tracking this thing lol.

The system is definitely not as organized as it was earlier today. The circulation has weakened slightly, and a mid-level feature has developed off of the Belize coast. Convection has begun to wane despite upper-level diffluent support off to the west, and upper-level winds should begin to deteriorate within the next 48 hours. I'd give it a <20% chance of developing to be honest. I just hope it brings rain to the drought-stricken areas of Florida.
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How much better has 94L gotton in the past 3-4 hours?
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Tornado Vortex Signature moving South away from me. Not a SPC warned cell...but producing some large hail. Up to 1.25 inches!

Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 116
Quoting TexasWynd:


my home town! nice to know I need more rain in NE Houston


Down in the Clear Lake area, we havent had any rain yet with these storms. Just a lot of wind gusts. I was out in the backyard today and noticed that the clay ground was splitting open to depths of 4 feet or so. We need rain before my dachshund falls in one.
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Hey guys. Been gone for the weekend...I see we have 94L and 91E...I personally believe that 94L has about a 30% chance for development by tomorrow afternoon before it is sheared.

91E could become a tropical depression at any time.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
Not real sure 94L will make it, almost looks like the convection is waning. We sure could use the rain here in NE FL for sure. We got some today thank goodness!
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best time of the day to run a loop on the visiable looks like alittle circulation sw of the caymens?
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783. txjac
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

That's alot of lightning. Epic pics.


Those were awesome, never have seen any like that before, thanks for posting Pdan
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


DMIN.. DMIN.. DMIN.. sing it with me. LOL.

*DMIN* If you say it out loud it sounds as if you're saying "demon".
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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