Little change to 94L; exceptional heat in Texas, record rains in California

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 06, 2011

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There is not much change to report on the large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Western Caribbean, between Jamaica and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The disturbance has brought intermittent heavy rains to Jamaica over the past two days, but nearby islands have thus far escaped the deluge. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1" per hour occurred in ocean regions just east of Jamaica this morning, but the heaviest rains have missed the island so far this morning. Visible satellite loops show no increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, and the storm's low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are poorly defined. The storm's center of low pressure is located about 130 miles south of Grand Cayman Island, in a region with no heavy thunderstorm activity. An intense clump of thunderstorms exists on either side of this low, near Jamaica, and just east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Water vapor satellite loops show the Caribbean has moistened over the past two days, and upper air balloon soundings from the Cayman Islands continue to show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 69% last night.) Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through tonight. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1" per hour (orange colors) were estimated by the F-17 satellite for 94L at 7:03am EDT Jun 6, 2011. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Since 94L is so large and poorly organized, today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 00Z and 06Z model runs were unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. A band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models show 94L pushing slowly northwest at about 5 mph, hitting this shear on Tuesday and Wednesday, preventing any further development. The NOGAPS model predicts that a gap may open up in the shear sufficient for the storm to organize into a tropical depression late this week. Given 94L's current disorganization, I doubt the storm will ever develop. NHC gave 94L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, and I believe these odds should be lower, near 20%. Regardless of development, 94L is capable of bringing very heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti through Wednesday. These rains will probably spread northwards into South Florida and the Bahama Islands by Thursday or Friday.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Exceptional heat in the South
A sizzling June heat wave set record high temperatures across much of Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. The high temperature at the Houston, Texas airport hit 105 degrees, the warmest temperature ever recorded in the month of June (old record: 104 degrees on June 24th and June 26th, 2009.) The earliest Houston ever recorded a temperature of 105 degrees prior to Sunday was July 26th, 1954. Records for Houston date back to 1891. There have been only 15 days in which the temperature has reached or exceeded 105 degrees in Houston:

4 - 1909
1 - 1954
2 - 1962
3 - 1980
5 - 2000

So far this month, new maximum temperature records in Houston have been established on four out of the first five days. Galveston and Houston both crushed their previous record high temperature for the day (June 5th) by a remarkable seven degrees. Residents can expect another day of triple-digit heat today, thanks to the upper level ridge of high pressure parked over the state. Houston will likely break the old record of 98°F for the date.


Figure 3. An intense low pressure system moves inland over California as seen in this satellite photo taken June 4, 2011, at 2pm PDT. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Record rains in California
A large and unusually intense low pressure system moved inland over California over the weekend, bringing large areas of the state rains unheard of in June. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, rainfall at Mining Ridge on the Big Sur coast totaled 8.31" Sunday, which, if verified, would be California's heaviest 1-day June rainstorm on record. According to the document "Historic Rainstorms in California" Dept. of Water Resources, Aug. 1997, the previous maximum June daily rainfall was 5.83" at Forni Ridge on June 18, 1982. San Francisco had its 2nd greatest June 1-day rainfall, going back to 1850, and both the San Francisco and Oakland airport have now had their rainiest Junes on record. Rainfall at Santa Barbara Airport yesterday totaled 1.24 inches, the wettest June day there on record (previous record: 0.51" on June 5, 2009.) The 1.38"of rain so far this June has made it the wettest June in recorded history at Santa Barbara Airport, going back to 1941.

Jeff Masters

Sunny California? (turnuptheheat)
Normally June should be warm and dry. Many areas have had more rainfall in one day than they usually get in the entire month of June. All due to this system: http://www.wunderground.com/data/images/GOES_CA_STORM.jpg
Sunny California?

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Quoting Tazmanian:





i would not be makeing thing up like that or evere one will think its for real some in too think about and be careful


That's why I wrote that sentence at the top, and bolded the word "my".
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31417
Quoting DestinJeff:
Radio guy keeps saying chance of "popcorn thunderstorms" ... driving me crazy.
maybe he means make popcorn to eat with the thunderstorms
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
am going with 60 too 70% next two
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40% chance for 94L from the NHC.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 062331
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH ASSOCIATED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT
125 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
CHANGE OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT BY
TOMORROW. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES
OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI...DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...JAMAICA...AND CUBA AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/KIMBERLAIN
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31417
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is my Tropical Weather Outlook. Feel free to leave comments. I know the image is hard to see, but it will have to suffice for now.



1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLAND OF GRAND CAYMAN IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW BEFORE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, AND THE SYSTEM FIZZLES OUT. HURRICANE HUNTERS ARE SCHEDULED TO FLY OUT INTO THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO INVESTIGATE...IF NECESSARY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30%...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLOODING ACROSS GRAND CAYMAN, JAMAICA, PORTIONS OF CUBA, AND PORTIONS OF HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

2. A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE SOUTH OF ACAPULCO CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION, AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME. CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP, AND FOR THIS REASON....THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100%...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEAT 48 HOURS OR SO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST.





i would not be makeing thing up like that or evere one will think its for real some in too think about and be careful
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where s miami, drak and kman , this place is pretty inactive ??????
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875. j2008
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is my Tropical Weather Outlook. Feel free to leave comments. I know the image is hard to see, but it will have to suffice for now.



1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLAND OF GRAND CAYMAN IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW BEFORE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, AND THE SYSTEM FIZZLES OUT. HURRICANE HUNTERS ARE SCHEDULED TO FLY OUT INTO THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO INVESTIGATE...IF NECESSARY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30%...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLOODING ACROSS GRAND CAYMAN, JAMAICA, PORTIONS OF CUBA, AND PORTIONS OF HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

2. A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE SOUTH OF ACAPULCO CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION, AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME. CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP, AND FOR THIS REASON....THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100%...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEAT 48 HOURS OR SO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST.

I'm thinking that 94 should have about 40% right now, it still has some convection that is around the low pressure center, in my opinion it still should have a decent chance of forming in the next 24-48 Hrs. If it doesnt do anything more by tommorow afternoon, I would definatly lower the chance to 20%.
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Quoting WatchingThisOne:


Stop with the all caps, at least until you join the NWS.


It makes it look neater in my opinion.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31417
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is my Tropical Weather Outlook. Feel free to leave comments. I know the image is hard to see, but it will have to suffice for now.



1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLAND OF GRAND CAYMAN IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW BEFORE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, AND THE SYSTEM FIZZLES OUT. HURRICANE HUNTERS ARE SCHEDULED TO FLY OUT INTO THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO INVESTIGATE...IF NECESSARY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30%...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLOODING ACROSS GRAND CAYMAN, JAMAICA, PORTIONS OF CUBA, AND PORTIONS OF HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

2. A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE SOUTH OF ACAPULCO CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION, AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME. CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP, AND FOR THIS REASON....THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100%...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEAT 48 HOURS OR SO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST.
I think it was KOG taught me yesterday. If you right click on the image and click on view image it will make it big enough to see.
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black and white water vapor loop of the tropical atlantic i see alot of stuff going on. thats not good for development of our system
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is my Tropical Weather Outlook. Feel free to leave comments. I know the image is hard to see, but it will have to suffice for now.



1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLAND OF GRAND CAYMAN IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW BEFORE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, AND THE SYSTEM FIZZLES OUT. HURRICANE HUNTERS ARE SCHEDULED TO FLY OUT INTO THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO INVESTIGATE...IF NECESSARY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30%...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLOODING ACROSS GRAND CAYMAN, JAMAICA, PORTIONS OF CUBA, AND PORTIONS OF HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

2. A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE SOUTH OF ACAPULCO CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION, AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME. CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP, AND FOR THIS REASON....THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100%...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEAT 48 HOURS OR SO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST.


Stop with the all caps, at least until you join the NWS.
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Quoting hurricaneben:
Can we see TD-1E in the Eastern Pacific by 11PM?
We should. I want to see NHC's TWO on it. They'll probably keep the chances near 100%..which usually means an advisory package will be issued at the next advisory issuance time. (Which will be 8pm PDT)
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Quoting WeatherfanPR:
I'm inside the Tornado Warning Area. I hope nothing happens.
Looks like the warning was already lifted
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Cuban radar composite.

Link

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Quoting Inactivity:


This made me think, at what times would D-min and D-Max be precisely?

Ex. times of D-min, peak of D-min, times of D-Max, peak of D-Max? Thanks ahead of time for whoever awnsers this!
D-Min is from late afternoon (around now) and D-Max is just before sunrise if I have learned anything on here LOL.
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Quoting WeatherfanPR:
I'm inside the Tornado Warning Area. I hope nothing happens.


Welcome to Florida PR
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
Quoting hurricaneben:
Can we see TD-1E in the Eastern Pacific by 11PM?


We could.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31417
Can we see TD-1E in the Eastern Pacific by 11PM?
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For you peps in Tampa area


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
713 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 745 PM EDT

* AT 712 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR CARROLLWOOD...OR NEAR TAMPA...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
CARROLLWOOD.
WEST PARK.
TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
TOWN 'N' COUNTRY.
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933
this is what I think
I think 94L's LLC will recurve south bound back to the east to that blob of moderate convection around 15N 81W and try to develop there move NNW-N it will have a better chance there because it will have the Upper level anticyclone right on top of it plus it will be right where the 850 vort max is located
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 10916
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
This is one thing I do not understand on here. They say convection wanes at D-Min and then when it does they say it looks bad and RIP .??????????


This made me think, at what times would D-min and D-Max be precisely?

Ex. times of D-min, peak of D-min, times of D-Max, peak of D-Max? Thanks ahead of time for whoever awnsers this!
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Conditions at 42057 as of
(5:50 pm EST)
2250 GMT on 06/06/2011: Unit of Measure: English Metric Time Zone: Station Local Time Greenwich Mean Time
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

Wind Direction (WDIR): WSW ( 240 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 3.9 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 5.8 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 2.3 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.2 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): NE ( 43 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.69 in
Air Temperature (ATMP): 83.3 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 85.1 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 77.7 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 93.2 °F
Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure
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This is my Tropical Weather Outlook. Feel free to leave comments. I know the image is hard to see, but it will have to suffice for now.



1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLAND OF GRAND CAYMAN IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW BEFORE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, AND THE SYSTEM FIZZLES OUT. HURRICANE HUNTERS ARE SCHEDULED TO FLY OUT INTO THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO INVESTIGATE...IF NECESSARY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30%...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLOODING ACROSS GRAND CAYMAN, JAMAICA, PORTIONS OF CUBA, AND PORTIONS OF HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

2. A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE SOUTH OF ACAPULCO CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION, AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME. CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP, AND FOR THIS REASON....THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100%...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEAT 48 HOURS OR SO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31417
Quoting CalebDancemastah:

I'm wondering the same thing? Shear could completely destroy it or dry air, hoping for neither, & pray for rain!
Rain sure would be nice... It almost seemed like the season was trying to start a couple weeks ago but since then nothing
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
This is one thing I do not understand on here. They say convection wanes at D-Min and then when it does they say it looks bad and RIP .??????????


It's a common problem... Those of us analyzing these storms tend to over-analyze each little piece of information to fill the time. It's better to take a long view and judge what's happening based on the aggregate information, but what fun is that?

That's what the NHC does. If we all did the same, what would you need us for?
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I'm inside the Tornado Warning Area. I hope nothing happens.
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Quoting driftwoodswfl:
If 94L does not develop into anything will it still bring enough moisture to give Florida rain or will it just fizzle out completely?

I'm wondering the same thing? Shear could completely destroy it or dry air, hoping for neither, & pray for rain!
Member Since: March 30, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 51
Quoting Inactivity:


I agree, It is still organizing, just that the convection died down doesn't mean it isn't organizing...After all, it is the peak of D-Min.Look at post 828, the satillite image looks very impressive despite lack of convection.
This is one thing I do not understand on here. They say convection wanes at D-Min and then when it does they say it looks bad and RIP .??????????
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Quoting driftwoodswfl:
Tornado warning for tampa

Yep until 8PM got told that from my little brother
Member Since: March 30, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 51
Quoting iahishome:
Thanks Dan!

I'm not usually much help analyzing these storms, so I just read to see where you guys think they'll go and how strong they'll get.

Those clouds over the land just north of the gulf that stretch from the Texas coast to the Florida panhandle are quite interesting!

I assume it's related to a warm, moist seabreeze in some fashion? Does anyone want to explain it to me? I don't think I've seen them form and stay so close to the coast for so long before.


I'm as confused as the next person about these cells. They are moving west, yet the winds are blowing from the west. Can see and smell the smoke from a fire in Alabama. The normal sea breeze is from the S/SE, which builds storms over the coast that may drift some, but usually build and rain themselves out in roughly the same area. That is our "3:00 afternoon shower" norm.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Tornado warning for tampa
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Quoting OrchidGrower:
Thanks for that info! Any idea when we go into that favorable phase of the MJO? (Lawn is becoming light tan and crispy ... [sigh])

Hi, I see from your ''footnote,'' that you have been involved in tracking what goes on here for 9 years, I am amazed that you have only posed 43 comments in 9 years!!
I think this site is amazing as everybody from the super experts to the ''want to knows,'' can have their say plus ask questions and more or less everybody chips in! Thank you as I am a relative newcomer to this kaleidoscope of info but I AM impressed!!
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I am doing rain dances for anyone in the U.S.A. that needs rain, just saying. :)
Thanks worked for me today but so many need more liquid sky.. sooo could you keep dancing please...Thanks!
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Quoting brentsuny07:
Any idea when NHC will upgrade the disturbance in the EPAC to TD #1? It's at 100% chance of development now with no recent update from them...

Brent McGrady
Meteorologist

http://www.albanyweatheronline.com
facebook.com/albanyweatheronline
twitter.com/albwxexaminer


At any time.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31417
Strong thunderstorms and heavy rain in Carrollwood, FL
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Quoting pressureman:
driftwoods the way it looks right now i would not expect to much maybe a half inch this system is losing its identity fast...
Guess it's better than nothing which is what we have now...
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Quoting stormpetrol:
This is clearest I have seen the low look around 17.8/81.9, though convection is waning it looks more organized than last night to meLink would not be surprised at all if it stayed at 50% 8pm or even go up to 60%.


I agree, It is still organizing, just that the convection died down doesn't mean it isn't organizing...After all, it is the peak of D-Min.Look at post 828, the satillite image looks very impressive despite lack of convection.
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Any idea when NHC will upgrade the disturbance in the EPAC to TD #1? It's at 100% chance of development now with no recent update from them...

Brent McGrady
Meteorologist

http://www.albanyweatheronline.com
facebook.com/albanyweatheronline
twitter.com/albwxexaminer
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It rained hard for about 10 minutes between 1:30 and 2:00 AM at my house and I'm inland by about an hour from L.A.

But yeah, I think Dr. Masters is really talking about these lows that keep hitting the Bay Area and the Sierras.

Hopefully this big low doesn't do the same as the ones a few weeks ago and interact with all that hot, moist air you guys are dealing with in the South. I'd be interested to see the SPC outlook in a few days.

OK... I won't be lazy -- here it is:
Convective Outlook

It actually looks quite calm.
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driftwoods the way it looks right now i would not expect to much maybe a half inch this system is losing its identity fast...
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I would love to get 14.5 minutes of anything out of the sky, in Texas all we have is 105 and blowing dust!


I'm going to Texas next week.
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If 94L does not develop into anything will it still bring enough moisture to give Florida rain or will it just fizzle out completely?
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836. Mikla
Thanks... grabbed the wrong one... I am in Taiwan this week... it is morning here...
Quoting alfabob:

That is from 3:00 UTC, here is the new one.
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Quoting NRAamy:
Record rains in California
A large and unusually intense low pressure system moved inland over California over the weekend, bringing large areas of the state rains unheard of in June



Really? Not in SoCal..... dry Saturday and Sunday....
Rained for me late last night and I live all the way down in san diego. Unfortunately, it wasn't hardly anything, but it was enough to get the ground wet
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
Thanks Dan!

I'm not usually much help analyzing these storms, so I just read to see where you guys think they'll go and how strong they'll get.

Those clouds over the land just north of the gulf that stretch from the Texas coast to the Florida panhandle are quite interesting!

I assume it's related to a warm, moist seabreeze in some fashion? Does anyone want to explain it to me? I don't think I've seen them form and stay so close to the coast for so long before.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
This is clearest I have seen the low look around 17.8/81.9, though convection is waning it looks more organized than last night to meLink would not be surprised at all if it stayed at 50% 8pm or even go up to 60%.

I agree with the stuff in bold.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5625
This is clearest I have seen the low look around 17.8/81.9, though convection is waning it looks more organized than last night to meLink would not be surprised at all if it stayed at 50% 8pm or even go up to 60%.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.