Little change to 94L; exceptional heat in Texas, record rains in California

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 06, 2011

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There is not much change to report on the large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Western Caribbean, between Jamaica and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The disturbance has brought intermittent heavy rains to Jamaica over the past two days, but nearby islands have thus far escaped the deluge. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1" per hour occurred in ocean regions just east of Jamaica this morning, but the heaviest rains have missed the island so far this morning. Visible satellite loops show no increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, and the storm's low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are poorly defined. The storm's center of low pressure is located about 130 miles south of Grand Cayman Island, in a region with no heavy thunderstorm activity. An intense clump of thunderstorms exists on either side of this low, near Jamaica, and just east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Water vapor satellite loops show the Caribbean has moistened over the past two days, and upper air balloon soundings from the Cayman Islands continue to show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 69% last night.) Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through tonight. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1" per hour (orange colors) were estimated by the F-17 satellite for 94L at 7:03am EDT Jun 6, 2011. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Since 94L is so large and poorly organized, today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 00Z and 06Z model runs were unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. A band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models show 94L pushing slowly northwest at about 5 mph, hitting this shear on Tuesday and Wednesday, preventing any further development. The NOGAPS model predicts that a gap may open up in the shear sufficient for the storm to organize into a tropical depression late this week. Given 94L's current disorganization, I doubt the storm will ever develop. NHC gave 94L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, and I believe these odds should be lower, near 20%. Regardless of development, 94L is capable of bringing very heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti through Wednesday. These rains will probably spread northwards into South Florida and the Bahama Islands by Thursday or Friday.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Exceptional heat in the South
A sizzling June heat wave set record high temperatures across much of Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. The high temperature at the Houston, Texas airport hit 105 degrees, the warmest temperature ever recorded in the month of June (old record: 104 degrees on June 24th and June 26th, 2009.) The earliest Houston ever recorded a temperature of 105 degrees prior to Sunday was July 26th, 1954. Records for Houston date back to 1891. There have been only 15 days in which the temperature has reached or exceeded 105 degrees in Houston:

4 - 1909
1 - 1954
2 - 1962
3 - 1980
5 - 2000

So far this month, new maximum temperature records in Houston have been established on four out of the first five days. Galveston and Houston both crushed their previous record high temperature for the day (June 5th) by a remarkable seven degrees. Residents can expect another day of triple-digit heat today, thanks to the upper level ridge of high pressure parked over the state. Houston will likely break the old record of 98°F for the date.


Figure 3. An intense low pressure system moves inland over California as seen in this satellite photo taken June 4, 2011, at 2pm PDT. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Record rains in California
A large and unusually intense low pressure system moved inland over California over the weekend, bringing large areas of the state rains unheard of in June. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, rainfall at Mining Ridge on the Big Sur coast totaled 8.31" Sunday, which, if verified, would be California's heaviest 1-day June rainstorm on record. According to the document "Historic Rainstorms in California" Dept. of Water Resources, Aug. 1997, the previous maximum June daily rainfall was 5.83" at Forni Ridge on June 18, 1982. San Francisco had its 2nd greatest June 1-day rainfall, going back to 1850, and both the San Francisco and Oakland airport have now had their rainiest Junes on record. Rainfall at Santa Barbara Airport yesterday totaled 1.24 inches, the wettest June day there on record (previous record: 0.51" on June 5, 2009.) The 1.38"of rain so far this June has made it the wettest June in recorded history at Santa Barbara Airport, going back to 1941.

Jeff Masters

Sunny California? (turnuptheheat)
Normally June should be warm and dry. Many areas have had more rainfall in one day than they usually get in the entire month of June. All due to this system: http://www.wunderground.com/data/images/GOES_CA_STORM.jpg
Sunny California?

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1782. hydrus
Quoting pottery:

Beer will do that.
Especially the German brew..It is shear power in a VERY large mug.
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1780. pottery
Quoting DestinJeff:
This kind of thing always helps to explain what is happening.

Easily.


Yep. Thanks for that.
It's pretty...
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1779. MahFL
The blob is heading WNW.....
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1778. Grothar
You have to admit that even though there is no organization. Those blobs are really trying hard. They look better in every frame. Maybe some of us will get a little rain after all

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23724
Quoting Grothar:


Come on. Things aren't that bad. The worse that can happen is Florida designates a new State tree:





I was also thinking that being called the "Desert Southeast" would be nice too.
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Quoting hydrus:
Oh bummer..I thought it was the equatorial stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation encroaching on the multi-decadal signal which in sequence reversed the geostrophic zonal thermohaline paleotempestic wind anomaly interfacing with one or maybe 2 rain squalls.....Nahhhh, actually it all stems from this Mr.Jeff..
Not Worthy, I am Not Worthy.
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1775. pottery
Quoting Grothar:


Maybe that is my trouble. I never drank in my life. Had one beer when I was 19 and never touched anything again. Although being on this blog for so long, I have been tempted sometimes.

Beer will do that.
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Quoting pottery:
Good Morning Taz.
You are up early!



i be up at 4:30 or 5:15am evere day in tell OCT
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1772. pottery
Good Morning Taz.
You are up early!
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1771. Grothar
Quoting hydrus:
it is never to early to be funny...You should trade in da walker for some Johnny Walker to wash down all that delicious super strength Geritol..he he. Good mornin.


Maybe that is my trouble. I never drank in my life. Had one beer when I was 19 and never touched anything again. Although being on this blog for so long, I have been tempted sometimes.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23724
evere time you guys post the chart am reporting you for spam its geting annyoing that you have too post it evere time you make a post or funny post bout some in
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Epac Tropicast
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Guys, i think it its time... to both declare that 94L is now dead, and 91E a tropical depression.
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
1766. pottery
Quoting hydrus:
Oh bummer..I thought it was the equatorial stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation encroaching on the multi-decadal signal which in sequence reversed the geostrophic zonal thermohaline paleotempestic wind anomaly interfacing with one or maybe 2 rain squalls.....Nahhhh, actually it all stems from this Mr.Jeff..

After reading that, I need more coffee, and maybe some asprin.
It's a good thing I understand furren languidges.
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1764. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting pottery:

Amen!

I never had any faith in it.
It never had a ridge to pump.
thats what happen it did not get to pump the ridge and gave up waiting
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How's the invest doing? 93l that is,OMG is that a flare up south of the Caymans?
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1762. Grothar
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Most everyone has actually had negative rain this month.



Come on. Things aren't that bad. The worse that can happen is Florida designates a new State tree:


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23724
1761. hydrus
Quoting MahFL:
That 8-14 day precip outlook is rubbish, our local office (JAX) says its going to be dry the next 7 days, so it would take a huge amount of rain on days 8 -14 to be above normal.


This is true..
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Hey Vincent NO NO NO ! No rain here for a while none expected in the near future although some of the mets here are trying to whip up 94 but that failed almost as bad as there forecast.
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Link TAFB Forecasts and Analyses
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1758. hydrus
Quoting DestinJeff:


it is most likely having feedback issues dealing with the retrograding trof split resulting from the monsoonal pooling of moisture in the eastern caribbean at the mid level. not to mention the sinking high pressure getting pumped by an subsiding cold front draped off the mid-atlantic coast east of the Carolinas.
Oh bummer..I thought it was the equatorial stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation encroaching on the multi-decadal signal which in sequence reversed the geostrophic zonal thermohaline paleotempestic wind anomaly interfacing with one or maybe 2 rain squalls.....Nahhhh, actually it all stems from this Mr.Jeff..
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Quoting DestinJeff:


oh, that says "rains". then, no.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


SEFL, Jupiter = NO, Although we had about .25 inches about a month ago.

So that means Florida needs rain.....badly.
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
1756. pottery
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we are gather here today to say farewell to an invest tagged 94l been a great 5 days you teased us all but in the end you were nothing more than a big let down for those who stayed awake the last five days hoping for that chance to see something great but not even the recoons got to see your face o well 94l till we meet again later in the season i hope you are as gentle as this first meet was

Amen!

I never had any faith in it.
It never had a ridge to pump.
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


SEFL, Jupiter = NO, Although we had about .25 inches about a month ago.


We got ripped off here in Putnam County in north central Florida yesterday. The t'storm's were all around me. I could see and smell the rain. It was very frustrating! No significant chance of precip in the near future.
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1754. MahFL
That 8-14 day precip outlook is rubbish, our local office (JAX) says its going to be dry the next 7 days, so it would take a huge amount of rain on days 8 -14 to be above normal.


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Quoting Vincent4989:
Anyone experiencing rains in Florida?


Most everyone has actually had negative rain this month.

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Quoting Vincent4989:
Anyone experiencing rains in Florida?


SEFL, Jupiter = NO, Although we had about .25 inches about a month ago.
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As I look at the rest of the Texas and SE CONUS at present, rather than a tropics or model watch, I'll be doing a "rain dance" for the next few weeks and praying for pop-up showers.........
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1749. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
we are gather here today to say farewell to an invest tagged 94l been a great 5 days you teased us all but in the end you were nothing more than a big let down for those who stayed awake the last five days hoping for that chance to see something great but not even the recoons got to see your face o well 94l till we meet again later in the season i hope you are as gentle as this first meet was
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1748. 7544
new blob south of pr ?
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Anyone experiencing rains in Florida?
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
1745. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:


Good, Lord. It is too early to be that funny. Give me a break. I just knocked over my walker.
it is never to early to be funny...You should trade in da walker for some Johnny Walker to wash down all that delicious super strength Geritol..he he. Good mornin.
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1743. MahFL
I think the clouds at the surface are now drifting NW.
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Time to put a tombstone on it...

Member Since: May 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1189
Morning All
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Quoting stormpetrol:


That is correct and this is closest convection has been to the center or nearly over it yet looking at the satelite loops, now that it is smaller and more compact wouldn't surprise me to see 94L blossom once again



Hoping it keeps puffing enough to bring some rain to the peninsula. Hate to see it get completely dried out, that would just suck.
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1739. hydrus
XTRP..lol...And 384..:)
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1738. Grothar
Quoting IKE:




Good, Lord. It is too early to be that funny. Give me a break. I just knocked over my walker.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23724
1736. hydrus
Quoting DestinJeff:


I don't trust models that far out, except the XTRP.
I dont either. I did find it interesting how it went haywire towards the end though. It just started forming blobs of precip all over the place. Like at 336 hours..lol..
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1735. aquak9
Gro- post 1643- same thing- 8 hidden backtrackers

Sorry to go public, but if any non-members click on an ad and make a purchase?

You know the rest of the story.
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1734. Jax82
Well, now that 94L is RIP (or on its last breathe) I guess we now get to watch posts of 240 hour model outlooks. Hooray.
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261
1733. IKE

Quoting Grothar:


IKE, this doesn't sound like you to give up so easily. LOL

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1732. pottery
Good Morning all.
Hot and bright one here.

Great new avatar, Snake.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.