Little change to 94L; exceptional heat in Texas, record rains in California

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 06, 2011

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There is not much change to report on the large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Western Caribbean, between Jamaica and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The disturbance has brought intermittent heavy rains to Jamaica over the past two days, but nearby islands have thus far escaped the deluge. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1" per hour occurred in ocean regions just east of Jamaica this morning, but the heaviest rains have missed the island so far this morning. Visible satellite loops show no increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, and the storm's low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are poorly defined. The storm's center of low pressure is located about 130 miles south of Grand Cayman Island, in a region with no heavy thunderstorm activity. An intense clump of thunderstorms exists on either side of this low, near Jamaica, and just east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Water vapor satellite loops show the Caribbean has moistened over the past two days, and upper air balloon soundings from the Cayman Islands continue to show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 69% last night.) Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through tonight. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1" per hour (orange colors) were estimated by the F-17 satellite for 94L at 7:03am EDT Jun 6, 2011. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Since 94L is so large and poorly organized, today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 00Z and 06Z model runs were unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. A band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models show 94L pushing slowly northwest at about 5 mph, hitting this shear on Tuesday and Wednesday, preventing any further development. The NOGAPS model predicts that a gap may open up in the shear sufficient for the storm to organize into a tropical depression late this week. Given 94L's current disorganization, I doubt the storm will ever develop. NHC gave 94L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, and I believe these odds should be lower, near 20%. Regardless of development, 94L is capable of bringing very heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti through Wednesday. These rains will probably spread northwards into South Florida and the Bahama Islands by Thursday or Friday.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Exceptional heat in the South
A sizzling June heat wave set record high temperatures across much of Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. The high temperature at the Houston, Texas airport hit 105 degrees, the warmest temperature ever recorded in the month of June (old record: 104 degrees on June 24th and June 26th, 2009.) The earliest Houston ever recorded a temperature of 105 degrees prior to Sunday was July 26th, 1954. Records for Houston date back to 1891. There have been only 15 days in which the temperature has reached or exceeded 105 degrees in Houston:

4 - 1909
1 - 1954
2 - 1962
3 - 1980
5 - 2000

So far this month, new maximum temperature records in Houston have been established on four out of the first five days. Galveston and Houston both crushed their previous record high temperature for the day (June 5th) by a remarkable seven degrees. Residents can expect another day of triple-digit heat today, thanks to the upper level ridge of high pressure parked over the state. Houston will likely break the old record of 98°F for the date.


Figure 3. An intense low pressure system moves inland over California as seen in this satellite photo taken June 4, 2011, at 2pm PDT. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Record rains in California
A large and unusually intense low pressure system moved inland over California over the weekend, bringing large areas of the state rains unheard of in June. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, rainfall at Mining Ridge on the Big Sur coast totaled 8.31" Sunday, which, if verified, would be California's heaviest 1-day June rainstorm on record. According to the document "Historic Rainstorms in California" Dept. of Water Resources, Aug. 1997, the previous maximum June daily rainfall was 5.83" at Forni Ridge on June 18, 1982. San Francisco had its 2nd greatest June 1-day rainfall, going back to 1850, and both the San Francisco and Oakland airport have now had their rainiest Junes on record. Rainfall at Santa Barbara Airport yesterday totaled 1.24 inches, the wettest June day there on record (previous record: 0.51" on June 5, 2009.) The 1.38"of rain so far this June has made it the wettest June in recorded history at Santa Barbara Airport, going back to 1941.

Jeff Masters

Sunny California? (turnuptheheat)
Normally June should be warm and dry. Many areas have had more rainfall in one day than they usually get in the entire month of June. All due to this system: http://www.wunderground.com/data/images/GOES_CA_STORM.jpg
Sunny California?

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932. HurricaneKing
11:49 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Thats what I thought, but there is no breeze, just calm.

Theres no rain from them either, as they just came over my house.


It's seabreeze. Down here in NC we see them all the time and there is hardly ever an actual breeze.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2485
929. PlazaRed
11:47 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
Quoting DestinJeff:
Somebody needs to put another quarter in the blog.


Please introduce quarter,{whatever that is,} and devote a bit of attention to the Pacific seaboard as the Caribbean is on hold as far a action is concerned for the next few hours!
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2093
928. CyclonicVoyage
11:47 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
explain this, is it just me or does it appear that the system that came off of the Yucatan has spun up or is that just a relocation of the low that was attached to 94l?


Just an attribute of the monsoonal gyre that is 94L. The package is starting to press north, looks like a mid-level feature.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
927. IKE
11:47 PM GMT on June 06, 2011

Quoting FLdewey:

Not until Reed makes the decree.
LOL!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
926. VAbeachhurricanes
11:47 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
Quoting Vincent4989:
The eye-like feature still persists:


you need to get your eyes checked
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6624
925. TomTaylor
11:46 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
Quoting Inyo:
This sort of rain is unheard of this time of year in southern and central California. It is probably going to have significant effects on the vegetation of the state... as this is either a 200 year return interval event, or a sign of climate change.

Most of California is bone-dry in summer, and the plants are adapted to this. If this were to change, a lot of the chaparral would probably succumb to fungus as it does not tolerate summer water well. Then what? The hillsides would start coming down on people, even more so than before.

Or... maybe it's just a one time event.
the winter we've had in California and much of the western us in general (excessive snow falls, and rains) has certainly been exceptional this year. Whether or not it will permanently alter the ecosystems of California will depend on whether or not this winter weather pattern can continue for several years.

Please note, I am not trying to spark a climate change debate here, only commenting on a post...

The reasoning behind this may have something to do with climate change, however, as its been stated many times before, tracing the reasoning behind an individual weather event to climate change is nearly impossible for two reasons. The first being that climate change refers to climate which is the average weather, and not the weather conditions on a given day. The second reason is that it is a poorly phrased statement since a change of climate does not directly cause weather events, it only describes an increased likelihood for weather conditions to be one way or the other for a given location.

What is more likely to be the reasoning for our exceptionally wet and cool winter across California (as well as the exceptional snows in the rockies) are the unusually cold sea surface temperatures off the coast of California, and the rest of the west coast of north America, also known as the cold phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation or PDO.

Here is a link for more info on the PDO Link
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
923. VAbeachhurricanes
11:46 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
Quoting HCW:


Seabreeze boundary ?


Thats what I thought, but there is no breeze, just calm.

Theres no rain from them either, as they just came over my house.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6624
921. Walshy
11:45 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
Quoting IKE:
...40 PERCENT...

Is it near the end?


yes yes yes
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 904
920. IKE
11:44 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
...40 PERCENT...

Is it near the end?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
919. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:44 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
I think that the fact that we have already seen four invests this year, three of them before the season already started, is a sign of how easy a system will be able to get going this season.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32354
918. Vincent4989
11:43 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
The eye-like feature still persists:
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
916. plywoodstatenative
11:43 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
explain this, is it just me or does it appear that the system that came off of the Yucatan has spun up or is that just a relocation of the low that was attached to 94l?
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
915. HCW
11:42 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


anyone know what these are? they aren't outflow boundaries, no storms even near here.


Seabreeze Convergence
Member Since: August 10, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1409
914. PcolaDan
11:41 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


anyone know what these are? they aren't outflow boundaries, no storms even near here.


Arrival of the Green Lantern?
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
913. cyclonekid
11:40 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
Quoting Walshy:



stop asking for attention geese


He's not asking for attention. Just trying to tell Taz to stop talking to him like he's a dog. He was just trying to make a point about his thoughts/opinions on the tropics.
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1731
911. KeysieLife
11:40 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
Quoting FLdewey:
Meh... Tornado warnings in florida should really be gustnado warnings most of the time... with an occasional sheriffnado mixed in for good measure.
what's up Dewey!? That cell moving towards Clearwater now. 'Nado warning lifted...
Member Since: September 10, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 409
910. VAbeachhurricanes
11:39 PM GMT on June 06, 2011


anyone know what these are? they aren't outflow boundaries, no storms even near here.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6624
909. CalebDancemastah
11:39 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
Quoting Walshy:



stop asking for attention geese

Well don't you think that was kind of messed up to ask a question like that?
Member Since: March 30, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 51
908. CyclonicVoyage
11:39 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
IMO, this is the last D-MIN it will get a pass to wane the convection. Big gains overnight or it's toast from a depression standpoint, again my opinion. However, it will still bring copious amounts of rain to areas in dire need of it.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
907. WeatherNerdPR
11:38 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
Quoting WeatherfanPR:


just one word !!!

lol
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5695
906. Walshy
11:38 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Ummm....please don't talk to me like I'm a dog...



stop asking for attention geese
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 904
905. PcolaDan
11:37 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
Quoting WeatherfanPR:



Thanks, that was my first Tornado Warning ever.


But have you seen the massive lightning storms yet? Frighteningly awesome.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
904. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:37 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
Quoting Tazmanian:



good boy would you like too have a bone?


Ummm....please don't talk to me like I'm a dog...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32354
903. WeatherfanPR
11:36 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

It took me a while to notice how similar our handles are:
WeatherfanPR - WeatherNerdPR

o_0


just one word !!!
Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1590
902. cyclonekid
11:36 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
EASTERN PACIFIC


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 062334
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUN 6 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES
SOUTH OF ACAPULCO HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
IN ADDITION...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS NOT YET
WELL-DEFINED. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF
THIS SYSTEM WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1731
901. CalebDancemastah
11:36 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
Quoting CalebDancemastah:
Jim Cantore was just talking about the cell the prompted the Tornado warning over Tampa, says it died down because it entered a more stable atmosphere, but it has created an outflow boundary so look for more thunderstorms to pop up.

On that note it's re-developing over the bay as it crosses over the Courtney Campbell see some pink on the radar. http://www.baynews9.com/weather/klystron9?animate =pinellas
Member Since: March 30, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 51
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUN 6 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES
SOUTH OF ACAPULCO HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
IN ADDITION...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS NOT YET
WELL-DEFINED
. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF
THIS SYSTEM WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just being the normal irritant but as most of the speculation with the 94L must now have played itself out and all that remains is to guess what will happen next to it?
I am more than interested in the developments in the Western side of the USA and what surprises the Catherine wheel that is leaning against most of your western coasts will bring to surprise everybody? That amount of activity must bring massive amounts of rainfall and serious disruption in the next few days, to my way of considering it, this area might deserve some consideration as a anomaly at least!
Just a thought!
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2093
RIP 94L losing all your convection

Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6624
Quoting WatchingThisOne:


Stop with the all caps, at least until you join the NWS.

Dude, its hard to uncaps those words.
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
Quoting driftwoodswfl:
Looks like the warning was already lifted



Thank God !!!
Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1590
Jim Cantore was just talking about the cell the prompted the Tornado warning over Tampa, says it died down because it entered a more stable atmosphere, but it has created an outflow boundary so look for more thunderstorms to pop up.
Member Since: March 30, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 51
Quoting Tazmanian:





i would not be makeing thing up like that or evere one will think its for real some in too think about and be careful


Something like that should go in his personal blog IMO...
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 904
ooops did i say 60 to 70% LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
looks like we have 40% from the nhc lets see what the nighttime hours brings see ya all tomorrow
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
LLC now at 22:45 is located 17.8N/17.7N 83.4W/83.5W before was 17.9N/18.0N 83.2W/83.3W at 22:15
before 18.2N 83.3W at 21:45 and before that at 19:45 was at 18.4N 83.1W so its moving WSW for sure
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
00
ABNT20 KNHC 062331
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH ASSOCIATED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT
125 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
CHANGE OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT BY
TOMORROW. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES
OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI...DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...JAMAICA...AND CUBA AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/KIMBERLAIN
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1731
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
I'm inside the Tornado Warning Area. I hope nothing happens.

It took me a while to notice how similar our handles are:
WeatherfanPR - WeatherNerdPR

o_0
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5695
Quoting emcf30:


Welcome to Florida PR



Thanks, that was my first Tornado Warning ever.
Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1590
Quoting Tazmanian:





i would not be makeing thing up like that or evere one will think its for real some in too think about and be careful


That's why I wrote that sentence at the top, and bolded the word "my".
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32354

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.