Little change to 94L; exceptional heat in Texas, record rains in California

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 06, 2011

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There is not much change to report on the large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Western Caribbean, between Jamaica and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The disturbance has brought intermittent heavy rains to Jamaica over the past two days, but nearby islands have thus far escaped the deluge. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1" per hour occurred in ocean regions just east of Jamaica this morning, but the heaviest rains have missed the island so far this morning. Visible satellite loops show no increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, and the storm's low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are poorly defined. The storm's center of low pressure is located about 130 miles south of Grand Cayman Island, in a region with no heavy thunderstorm activity. An intense clump of thunderstorms exists on either side of this low, near Jamaica, and just east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Water vapor satellite loops show the Caribbean has moistened over the past two days, and upper air balloon soundings from the Cayman Islands continue to show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 69% last night.) Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through tonight. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1" per hour (orange colors) were estimated by the F-17 satellite for 94L at 7:03am EDT Jun 6, 2011. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Since 94L is so large and poorly organized, today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 00Z and 06Z model runs were unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. A band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models show 94L pushing slowly northwest at about 5 mph, hitting this shear on Tuesday and Wednesday, preventing any further development. The NOGAPS model predicts that a gap may open up in the shear sufficient for the storm to organize into a tropical depression late this week. Given 94L's current disorganization, I doubt the storm will ever develop. NHC gave 94L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, and I believe these odds should be lower, near 20%. Regardless of development, 94L is capable of bringing very heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti through Wednesday. These rains will probably spread northwards into South Florida and the Bahama Islands by Thursday or Friday.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Exceptional heat in the South
A sizzling June heat wave set record high temperatures across much of Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. The high temperature at the Houston, Texas airport hit 105 degrees, the warmest temperature ever recorded in the month of June (old record: 104 degrees on June 24th and June 26th, 2009.) The earliest Houston ever recorded a temperature of 105 degrees prior to Sunday was July 26th, 1954. Records for Houston date back to 1891. There have been only 15 days in which the temperature has reached or exceeded 105 degrees in Houston:

4 - 1909
1 - 1954
2 - 1962
3 - 1980
5 - 2000

So far this month, new maximum temperature records in Houston have been established on four out of the first five days. Galveston and Houston both crushed their previous record high temperature for the day (June 5th) by a remarkable seven degrees. Residents can expect another day of triple-digit heat today, thanks to the upper level ridge of high pressure parked over the state. Houston will likely break the old record of 98°F for the date.


Figure 3. An intense low pressure system moves inland over California as seen in this satellite photo taken June 4, 2011, at 2pm PDT. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Record rains in California
A large and unusually intense low pressure system moved inland over California over the weekend, bringing large areas of the state rains unheard of in June. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, rainfall at Mining Ridge on the Big Sur coast totaled 8.31" Sunday, which, if verified, would be California's heaviest 1-day June rainstorm on record. According to the document "Historic Rainstorms in California" Dept. of Water Resources, Aug. 1997, the previous maximum June daily rainfall was 5.83" at Forni Ridge on June 18, 1982. San Francisco had its 2nd greatest June 1-day rainfall, going back to 1850, and both the San Francisco and Oakland airport have now had their rainiest Junes on record. Rainfall at Santa Barbara Airport yesterday totaled 1.24 inches, the wettest June day there on record (previous record: 0.51" on June 5, 2009.) The 1.38"of rain so far this June has made it the wettest June in recorded history at Santa Barbara Airport, going back to 1941.

Jeff Masters

Sunny California? (turnuptheheat)
Normally June should be warm and dry. Many areas have had more rainfall in one day than they usually get in the entire month of June. All due to this system: http://www.wunderground.com/data/images/GOES_CA_STORM.jpg
Sunny California?

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


If 94L does not develop, do you think that we will see a tropical cyclone develop before the month is up?


It's possible, though I don't see anything going on for the next two weeks. It would happen during the last 10 days of the month if it's going to. Only an average of 1 in 3 Junes sees a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic, so it means little if we don't get one.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Morning all. I found this pic or the Puyehue volcano in Chile.

Cool pic Aussie
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1957
there seems to be a nice blow up of convection thats developed on the Hon/Nic boarder about to come off the caribbean coastline may help the blob just to the east of it and to the SE of the LLC/COC of 94L to blow up
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12719
Quoting DestinJeff:


yeah right. Negative, per the Rules of the Road -- which I will not replicate here to appear to look official -- you must endure exactly 173 comments that scold you for such an indiscretion.

I said good day, sir!

heheheh, poor guy...
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
wasn't there a guy with a site issuing official looking weather statements last week that was remove from internet by NWS/NOAA or given a warning or something and people were actually following the unofficial advice because they were under the impression that it was NWS issued statements

only thing that has saved yer self is the note at the top that said it was your own outlook but i have to admit at first i though it was real then i realize it was not


Yeah. That was pretty bad what that guy was doing.
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Quoting DestinJeff:


And a crying baby avatar only lends that much more credence to the Clearwater Revival.


Ya think? :) That was actually pretty funny to me! Ok, back to the suspenseful reading....
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Does anybody see that ULL in the Gulf moving away or weakening?
Member Since: March 30, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 51
Quoting Levi32:
On the sliver of good news side for 94L, deep-layer moisture still resides over Cancun, Mexico, indicating that the Caribbean has not yet been invaded by dry air from the west, but that will come in time.



If 94L does not develop, do you think that we will see a tropical cyclone develop before the month is up?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32861
Quoting AussieStorm:
Morning all. I found this pic or the Puyehue volcano in Chile.


Morning Aussie, saw that earlier, beautiful isn't it. Take a look at this video of the eruption when you get a chance.
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Quoting DestinJeff:


," Weiner hoped.


I just need to stop now lol, thanks for the laugh. The inadvertent things.
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On the sliver of good news side for 94L, deep-layer moisture still resides over Cancun, Mexico, indicating that the Caribbean has not yet been invaded by dry air from the west, but that will come in time.

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Quoting AussieStorm:
Morning all. I found this pic or the Puyehue volcano in Chile.

Morning, Aussie.
There was a link here this afternoon sometime with 30 of those images.
Fantastic!
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Morning all. I found this pic or the Puyehue volcano in Chile.

This image looks more like it came from a movie:
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


lol, sorry...that's right (90L, 91L, 92L, 93L, and 94L). Maybe I need to learn how to count again!


Its all good lol
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
LLC now looks ver elongated now 23:15 at 18.7N 83.5W going up to 18.1N 83.0W before LLC was at 22:45 was located 17.8N/17.7N 83.4W/83.5W before was 17.9N/18.0N 83.2W/83.3W at 22:15
before 18.2N 83.3W at 21:45 and before that at 19:45 was at 18.4N 83.1W so its moving WSW for sure
Whoa!!
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I'm catching up from a couple hours ago...but I just looked at the Vis loop and this thing looks like a
.
.
.

.
.
.
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I'm sorry...I shouldn't have done it...I won't do it again...trust me.

Can we get back to weather now though?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32861
Quoting Levi32:


Imitating NHC discussions is never a good idea, and is not condoned on this blog. If you're going to post a discussion, by all means do so, but not in NWS format please.
wasn't there a guy with a site issuing official looking weather statements last week that was remove from internet by NWS/NOAA or given a warning or something and people were actually following the unofficial advice because they were under the impression that it was NWS issued statements

only thing that has saved yer self is the note at the top that said it was your own outlook but i have to admit at first i though it was real then i realize it was not
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting Hurricanes101:


we have seen 5


lol, sorry...that's right (90L, 91L, 92L, 93L, and 94L). Maybe I need to learn how to count again!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32861
Quoting AussieStorm:
Morning all. I found this pic or the Puyehue volcano in Chile.


Dang.
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Quoting Levi32:


Imitating NHC discussions is never a good idea, and is not condoned on this blog. If you're going to post a discussion, by all means do so, but not in NWS format please.


NWS does not like it either:

You also cannot present information of your own in a way that makes it appear to be official government information.


Link
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That blob coming off the Yucatan seems to have more pep than 94 L does at this moment. I think it's rather dead.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Morning all. I found this pic or the Puyehue volcano in Chile.


Dang thats an amazing shot, look how the stratosphere just says no to the ash.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6705
pressures are rising 006.1mb and NE-NNE winds here
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12719
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think that the fact that we have already seen four invests this year, three of them before the season already started, is a sign of how easy a system will be able to get going this season.


we have seen 5
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
LLC now looks ver elongated now 23:15 at 18.7N 83.5W going up to 18.1N 83.0W before LLC was at 22:45 was located 17.8N/17.7N 83.4W/83.5W before was 17.9N/18.0N 83.2W/83.3W at 22:15
before 18.2N 83.3W at 21:45 and before that at 19:45 was at 18.4N 83.1W so its moving WSW for sure


Wow
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
LLC now looks ver elongated now 23:15 at 18.7N 83.5W going up to 18.1N 83.0W before LLC was at 22:45 was located 17.8N/17.7N 83.4W/83.5W before was 17.9N/18.0N 83.2W/83.3W at 22:15
before 18.2N 83.3W at 21:45 and before that at 19:45 was at 18.4N 83.1W so its moving WSW for sure
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12719
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Ah so it is a sea breeze thanks everyone, I've never seen one so pronounced on radar in my area.


We have one moving through here in SE NC too.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32861
Morning all. I found this pic or the Puyehue volcano in Chile.
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949. HCW
Quoting FLdewey:
Timmer is up in Montana today... great conditions for a Tornado or two today.


Weed Trimmer is everywhere except he didn't chase in MA the other day
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Quoting PlazaRed:


Please introduce quarter,{whatever that is,} and devote a bit of attention to the Pacific seaboard as the Caribbean is on hold as far a action is concerned for the next few hours!



This has the potential for some major river flooding and causing mud slides.
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Quoting DestinJeff:


," said Weiner.


I read that again after I posted it and thought, someones going to tag that, lol.
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Ah so it is a sea breeze thanks everyone, I've never seen one so pronounced on radar in my area.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6705
Good Evening.
Well, y'all did a Lousy Job looking after 94L today while I was mostly gone.
Looks like it hasnt been fed, watered, combed or anything.

Come here, Sick Puppy. I will look after you properly.

Oh, and "Ditto" to the previous several pages of posts.
I agree...
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Quoting Levi32:


Imitating NHC discussions is never a good idea, and is not condoned on this blog. If you're going to post a discussion, by all means do so, but not in NWS format please.


gotcha.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32861
941. IKE

Quoting DestinJeff:


Safe to say No, then.
lol
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
explain this, is it just me or does it appear that the system that came off of the Yucatan has spun up or is that just a relocation of the low that was attached to 94l?


It is one of the many things working against it at the moment and highlights the current state of the system. Had it organized today that feature would not have been there. It is a likely result of collapsing t-storms.
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~Wasted Days and Wasted Nights~
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937. HCW
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Thats what I thought, but there is no breeze, just calm.

Theres no rain from them either, as they just came over my house.


NWS says that is what it is in there 140pm Disco

Link
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


you need to get your eyes checked

Just because eye-like doesn't mean a real eye of a hurricane. Check images of North American Blizzard Of 2006.
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR...MONTANA.
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 907
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is my Tropical Weather Outlook. Feel free to leave comments. I know the image is hard to see, but it will have to suffice for now.



1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLAND OF GRAND CAYMAN IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW BEFORE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, AND THE SYSTEM FIZZLES OUT. HURRICANE HUNTERS ARE SCHEDULED TO FLY OUT INTO THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO INVESTIGATE...IF NECESSARY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30%...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLOODING ACROSS GRAND CAYMAN, JAMAICA, PORTIONS OF CUBA, AND PORTIONS OF HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

2. A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE SOUTH OF ACAPULCO CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION, AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME. CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP, AND FOR THIS REASON....THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100%...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEAT 48 HOURS OR SO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST.


Imitating NHC discussions is never a good idea, and is not condoned on this blog. If you're going to post a discussion, by all means do so, but not in NWS format please.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Thats what I thought, but there is no breeze, just calm.

Theres no rain from them either, as they just came over my house.


It's seabreeze. Down here in NC we see them all the time and there is hardly ever an actual breeze.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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