Little change to 94L; exceptional heat in Texas, record rains in California

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 06, 2011

Share this Blog
11
+

There is not much change to report on the large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Western Caribbean, between Jamaica and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The disturbance has brought intermittent heavy rains to Jamaica over the past two days, but nearby islands have thus far escaped the deluge. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1" per hour occurred in ocean regions just east of Jamaica this morning, but the heaviest rains have missed the island so far this morning. Visible satellite loops show no increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, and the storm's low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are poorly defined. The storm's center of low pressure is located about 130 miles south of Grand Cayman Island, in a region with no heavy thunderstorm activity. An intense clump of thunderstorms exists on either side of this low, near Jamaica, and just east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Water vapor satellite loops show the Caribbean has moistened over the past two days, and upper air balloon soundings from the Cayman Islands continue to show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 69% last night.) Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through tonight. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1" per hour (orange colors) were estimated by the F-17 satellite for 94L at 7:03am EDT Jun 6, 2011. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Since 94L is so large and poorly organized, today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 00Z and 06Z model runs were unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. A band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models show 94L pushing slowly northwest at about 5 mph, hitting this shear on Tuesday and Wednesday, preventing any further development. The NOGAPS model predicts that a gap may open up in the shear sufficient for the storm to organize into a tropical depression late this week. Given 94L's current disorganization, I doubt the storm will ever develop. NHC gave 94L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, and I believe these odds should be lower, near 20%. Regardless of development, 94L is capable of bringing very heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti through Wednesday. These rains will probably spread northwards into South Florida and the Bahama Islands by Thursday or Friday.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Exceptional heat in the South
A sizzling June heat wave set record high temperatures across much of Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. The high temperature at the Houston, Texas airport hit 105 degrees, the warmest temperature ever recorded in the month of June (old record: 104 degrees on June 24th and June 26th, 2009.) The earliest Houston ever recorded a temperature of 105 degrees prior to Sunday was July 26th, 1954. Records for Houston date back to 1891. There have been only 15 days in which the temperature has reached or exceeded 105 degrees in Houston:

4 - 1909
1 - 1954
2 - 1962
3 - 1980
5 - 2000

So far this month, new maximum temperature records in Houston have been established on four out of the first five days. Galveston and Houston both crushed their previous record high temperature for the day (June 5th) by a remarkable seven degrees. Residents can expect another day of triple-digit heat today, thanks to the upper level ridge of high pressure parked over the state. Houston will likely break the old record of 98°F for the date.


Figure 3. An intense low pressure system moves inland over California as seen in this satellite photo taken June 4, 2011, at 2pm PDT. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Record rains in California
A large and unusually intense low pressure system moved inland over California over the weekend, bringing large areas of the state rains unheard of in June. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, rainfall at Mining Ridge on the Big Sur coast totaled 8.31" Sunday, which, if verified, would be California's heaviest 1-day June rainstorm on record. According to the document "Historic Rainstorms in California" Dept. of Water Resources, Aug. 1997, the previous maximum June daily rainfall was 5.83" at Forni Ridge on June 18, 1982. San Francisco had its 2nd greatest June 1-day rainfall, going back to 1850, and both the San Francisco and Oakland airport have now had their rainiest Junes on record. Rainfall at Santa Barbara Airport yesterday totaled 1.24 inches, the wettest June day there on record (previous record: 0.51" on June 5, 2009.) The 1.38"of rain so far this June has made it the wettest June in recorded history at Santa Barbara Airport, going back to 1941.

Jeff Masters

Sunny California? (turnuptheheat)
Normally June should be warm and dry. Many areas have had more rainfall in one day than they usually get in the entire month of June. All due to this system: http://www.wunderground.com/data/images/GOES_CA_STORM.jpg
Sunny California?

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1032 - 982

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37Blog Index

1032. scott39
Is there even a swirl anymore??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

Absolutely!
In notice that you got some rain. Heavy I think?


Yep, 1.44 inches to be precise but I don't see too much more unless we get a last gasp from 94L tonight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1029. Patrap


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm calling it; .5 inches of rain!

Light to moderate rain. This is exactly the kind the drought-stricken ground needs.

May more TUTT's and oncoming tropical waves move our way this summer.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
(with sarcasm) 94L looks organized today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1024. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:


No question they are good but they will call it wrong this year at some point in time, it's the nature of the game. Every year everyone calls one or more of these wrong, including the NHC. The trick is to be more right than wrong, not right all of the time.

Absolutely!
I notice that you got some rain. Heavy I think?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


What about the tropical waves that come off of Africa?


Got 'em there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1022. Grothar
Quoting DestinJeff:


I prefer 12-pt Sarcastic.

Hi Grothar, wie gehts est Ihnen?



Müde, danke.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1020. Levi32
Quoting scott39:
Thanks, I wont take that bet...but you never know.


I wouldn't take that bet either.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
1018. Levi32
Quoting Grothar:


What about the tropical waves that come off of Africa?


A very different situation. Tropical wave genesis depends on the land. Tropical waves are actually cold-core while over Africa, and are not driven by tropical processes until they have been over the Atlantic for a while.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Quoting emcf30:

Cool pic Aussie

It's my new desktop background
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
something I have noticed it seems this year the NHC is using its 48 hour outlook a bit more literally


In the past when they posted 80, 90 or 100% chance of development then a classification was imminent and likely occurred in the next advisory.

However 91E has been at 90% or higher for 24 hours now and still no classification; so I think they using the percentage more literally as in "90% chance of development in the next 48 hours"

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1014. pottery
Quoting DestinJeff:


so very statesman/woman of you, Pot.

I do try...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1013. Grothar
Quoting Levi32:


Convection originating over land is not very helpful to a tropical disturbance.


What about the tropical waves that come off of Africa?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1011. IKE

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:
Well, I have to say, that the only person to get 94L right from start to now, is NHC. Whoever he/she is.
I will be putting my money where he/she puts his/hers in future.


No question they are good but they will call it wrong this year at some point in time, it's the nature of the game. Every year everyone calls one or more of these wrong, including the NHC. The trick is to be more right than wrong, not right all of the time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:


But if we blog it, they will come.

Right?
lolz
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
Quoting pressureman:
driftwoods the way it looks right now i would not expect to much maybe a half inch this system is losing its identity fast...


Ummmm,it doesn't have to be a tropical system to dump heavy rains, look at what happened in Jamacia and in Hispanola, they got more than they bargained for.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PcolaDan:


Morning Aussie, saw that earlier, beautiful isn't it. Take a look at this video of the eruption when you get a chance.

Yeah, It looks like a beast of an eruption. Much worse that the latest Iceland eruption. I have heard reports that it's now calming down. But still it just awesome to see the power that is within this little blue planet of ours.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1004. scott39
Quoting Levi32:


I don't subscribe to him so I don't know what he was talking about.

However, since you bring it up, there is a funny little thing, one of those 1% longshots. If 94L stays a defined entity with some moisture and heads northwest, more towards the central gulf than the eastern gulf, it could duck right underneath the subtropical jetstream and end up beneath the upper trough axis where upper winds are light. At that point it would be almost like a subtropical development setup. I believe this is why the GFDL and NOGAPS have periodically strengthened 94L just before reaching the north gulf coast, which didn't make much sense to me until I thought about it for a while.
Thanks, I wont take that bet...but you never know.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Indeed. Its window is closing. It still bares watching to see if the moisture field sluffs off to the northeast and avoids Florida, which we don't want. Hopefully it will retain that moisture and draw it up into Florida.



The way our luck has been with rain in the southeast, that is exactly what will likely happen.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1002. Grothar
Quoting Levi32:
On the sliver of good news side for 94L, deep-layer moisture still resides over Cancun, Mexico, indicating that the Caribbean has not yet been invaded by dry air from the west, but that will come in time.



That graph you posted looks like it was written in Sanskrit.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


It's possible, though I don't see anything going on for the next two weeks. It would happen during the last 10 days of the month if it's going to. Only an average of 1 in 3 Junes sees a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic, so it means little if we don't get one.


Yes but long term predictions are really useless. You never know what may pop up.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TomTaylor:
why's that?

For one, early season activity does not mean overall high activity through the rest of the season. Also, none of the invests so far this year have even developed. And finally, only one of those invests has been of tropical origins.


I know that early season activity doesn't normally correlate to the activity for the rest of the season, but still, it seems that these Invests are finding it easier to get going than other years.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32046
Well, I have to say, that the only person to get 94L right from start to now, is NHC. Whoever he/she is.
I will be putting my money where he/she puts his/hers in future.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Buoy 42057 is reporting a pressure of 1005.5 mb winds ssw.


We were wondering earlier if the drop in pressure had to do soley with DMAX.

We are in DMIN now, and because the pressure is still maintaining itself, guess seeing TD1 isn't out of the realm of possibility.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


Very anemic looking now with all the convection heading off to the NE.

I don't see this becoming a TD and will do well to survive another 24 hours IMO. Dmax tonight won't help as dry air and shear will be here soon from the Yucatan


Indeed. Its window is closing. It still bares watching to see if the moisture field sluffs off to the northeast and avoids Florida, which we don't want. Hopefully it will retain that moisture and draw it up into Florida.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
there seems to be a nice blow up of convection thats developed on the Hon/Nic boarder about to come off the caribbean coastline may help the blob just to the east of it and to the SE of the LLC/COC of 94L to blow up


Agreed wunderkid
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think that the fact that we have already seen four invests this year, three of them before the season already started, is a sign of how easy a system will be able to get going this season.
why's that?

For one, early season activity does not mean overall high activity through the rest of the season. Also, none of the invests so far this year have even developed. And finally, only one of those invests has been of tropical origins.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
Quoting scott39:
Someone commented earlier that Bastardi saw an oppurtunity for 94L to develope in the eastern GOM. Do you see that possibility?


I don't subscribe to him so I don't know what he was talking about.

However, since you bring it up, there is a funny little thing, one of those 1% longshots. If 94L stays a defined entity with some moisture and heads northwest, more towards the central gulf than the eastern gulf, it could duck right underneath the subtropical jetstream and end up beneath the upper trough axis where upper winds are light. At that point it would be almost like a subtropical development setup. I believe this is why the GFDL and NOGAPS have periodically strengthened 94L just before reaching the north gulf coast, which didn't make much sense to me until I thought about it for a while.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Quoting AussieStorm:
Morning all. I found this pic or the Puyehue volcano in Chile.
Quoting Vincent4989:

This image looks more like it came from a movie:

O_o
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5682
Quoting pressureman:
levi 32 the party is over for 94L ..im sure you can see it..


Rolls eyes.

Quoting pressureman:
I would like to know where REEDZIONE is...lol i tried to tell him this morning that 94L was through finish dead but he kept saying it would be a tropical depression later this afternoon..I told him the shear would tear it apart but REED still insisted lmao...He needs some more extensive training luckily we are not into the heart of the hurricane season..He would of frightened half the state of Florida accoding to his forecast lol...


*Rolls eyes* It was showing signs of development and organization earlier, thats why he was saying that.

Quoting pressureman:
levi 32 the party is over for 94L ..im sure you can see it..


*Rolls eyes again* It's not over yet, still has a chance. Wow that's a first, you never mentioned Bob Breck in any of your posts. Nice job.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The chance of 91E dissipating is by a quintillion to one, if not Pi %.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
RIP 94L. You were about 10 weeks premature to survive.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:


it is kind of the new "that's what she said."



My wife said you stumbled upon the perfect way to eloquently explain that process, lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
On the sliver of good news side for 94L, deep-layer moisture still resides over Cancun, Mexico, indicating that the Caribbean has not yet been invaded by dry air from the west, but that will come in time.



Very anemic looking now with all the convection heading off to the NE.

I don't see this becoming a TD and will do well to survive another 24 hours IMO. Dmax tonight won't help as dry air and shear will be here soon from the Yucatan
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
there seems to be a nice blow up of convection thats developed on the Hon/Nic boarder about to come off the caribbean coastline may help the blob just to the east of it and to the SE of the LLC/COC of 94L to blow up


Convection originating over land is not very helpful to a tropical disturbance.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Quoting Levi32:
On the sliver of good news side for 94L, deep-layer moisture still resides over Cancun, Mexico, indicating that the Caribbean has not yet been invaded by dry air from the west, but that will come in time.

Someone commented earlier that Bastardi saw an oppurtunity for 94L to develope in the eastern GOM. Do you see that possibility?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
well 94L is on the downfall, so were back to the waiting game for Arlene... Bye... will be back when the next storm comes...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


If 94L does not develop, do you think that we will see a tropical cyclone develop before the month is up?


It's possible, though I don't see anything going on for the next two weeks. It would happen during the last 10 days of the month if it's going to. Only an average of 1 in 3 Junes sees a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic, so it means little if we don't get one.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647

Viewing: 1032 - 982

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
73 °F
Overcast