Little change to 94L; exceptional heat in Texas, record rains in California

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 06, 2011

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There is not much change to report on the large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Western Caribbean, between Jamaica and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The disturbance has brought intermittent heavy rains to Jamaica over the past two days, but nearby islands have thus far escaped the deluge. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1" per hour occurred in ocean regions just east of Jamaica this morning, but the heaviest rains have missed the island so far this morning. Visible satellite loops show no increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, and the storm's low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are poorly defined. The storm's center of low pressure is located about 130 miles south of Grand Cayman Island, in a region with no heavy thunderstorm activity. An intense clump of thunderstorms exists on either side of this low, near Jamaica, and just east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Water vapor satellite loops show the Caribbean has moistened over the past two days, and upper air balloon soundings from the Cayman Islands continue to show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 69% last night.) Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through tonight. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1" per hour (orange colors) were estimated by the F-17 satellite for 94L at 7:03am EDT Jun 6, 2011. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Since 94L is so large and poorly organized, today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 00Z and 06Z model runs were unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. A band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models show 94L pushing slowly northwest at about 5 mph, hitting this shear on Tuesday and Wednesday, preventing any further development. The NOGAPS model predicts that a gap may open up in the shear sufficient for the storm to organize into a tropical depression late this week. Given 94L's current disorganization, I doubt the storm will ever develop. NHC gave 94L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, and I believe these odds should be lower, near 20%. Regardless of development, 94L is capable of bringing very heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti through Wednesday. These rains will probably spread northwards into South Florida and the Bahama Islands by Thursday or Friday.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Exceptional heat in the South
A sizzling June heat wave set record high temperatures across much of Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. The high temperature at the Houston, Texas airport hit 105 degrees, the warmest temperature ever recorded in the month of June (old record: 104 degrees on June 24th and June 26th, 2009.) The earliest Houston ever recorded a temperature of 105 degrees prior to Sunday was July 26th, 1954. Records for Houston date back to 1891. There have been only 15 days in which the temperature has reached or exceeded 105 degrees in Houston:

4 - 1909
1 - 1954
2 - 1962
3 - 1980
5 - 2000

So far this month, new maximum temperature records in Houston have been established on four out of the first five days. Galveston and Houston both crushed their previous record high temperature for the day (June 5th) by a remarkable seven degrees. Residents can expect another day of triple-digit heat today, thanks to the upper level ridge of high pressure parked over the state. Houston will likely break the old record of 98°F for the date.


Figure 3. An intense low pressure system moves inland over California as seen in this satellite photo taken June 4, 2011, at 2pm PDT. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Record rains in California
A large and unusually intense low pressure system moved inland over California over the weekend, bringing large areas of the state rains unheard of in June. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, rainfall at Mining Ridge on the Big Sur coast totaled 8.31" Sunday, which, if verified, would be California's heaviest 1-day June rainstorm on record. According to the document "Historic Rainstorms in California" Dept. of Water Resources, Aug. 1997, the previous maximum June daily rainfall was 5.83" at Forni Ridge on June 18, 1982. San Francisco had its 2nd greatest June 1-day rainfall, going back to 1850, and both the San Francisco and Oakland airport have now had their rainiest Junes on record. Rainfall at Santa Barbara Airport yesterday totaled 1.24 inches, the wettest June day there on record (previous record: 0.51" on June 5, 2009.) The 1.38"of rain so far this June has made it the wettest June in recorded history at Santa Barbara Airport, going back to 1941.

Jeff Masters

Sunny California? (turnuptheheat)
Normally June should be warm and dry. Many areas have had more rainfall in one day than they usually get in the entire month of June. All due to this system: http://www.wunderground.com/data/images/GOES_CA_STORM.jpg
Sunny California?

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Quoting pottery:

Someone from one of your Islands was saying 4" ??
Not unlikely, today.

I hope this is the start of a wetter period there, but not too much!


picky picky picky
Just no pleasing you is there? ;>)










oh wait














rum :)
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thanks all
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Rain coming our way here in Fl, but not from the direction we thought! Love the surprises of this season, and my bet is it's going to be endlessly surprising one, good to have everyone on board for the adventure.
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1078. emcf30
Quoting Levi32:


That was a very special situation where a well-defined circulation developed within a deep moisture layer in the African monsoonal circulation. The upward motion and amount of moisture was sufficient to develop the circulation into a tropical entity. I believe Hurricane Donna also did this. It's very rare, and only occurs under the most extraordinarily favorable circumstances. Consider it sort of like TS Fay strengthening over Florida.


Grothar, I would give him an A for that on. Boy Donna was a mess for me, will never forget that one
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Quoting tropicfreak:


DING DING DING DING DING!!!! *Alarm sounds*

This is not a drill! I repeat this is not a drill!!

XD
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5690
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

So...many...numbers...


definitely.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
It's early and you all are already looking at stuff off of africa?
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Quoting Levi32:


That was a very special situation where a well-defined circulation developed within a deep moisture layer in the African monsoonal circulation. The upward motion and amount of moisture was sufficient to develop the circulation into a tropical entity. I believe Hurricane Donna also did this. It's very rare, and only occurs under the most extraordinarily favorable circumstances. Consider it sort of like TS Fay strengthening over Florida.


I hope we get to see something like that this year.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Quoting FrankZapper:
Troll alert!


Good God, didn't I just go through this with you?

ENOUGH!!!!!!!
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Quoting Vincent4989:
Ring the bells! Troll on the loose!


DING DING DING DING DING!!!! *Alarm sounds*
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1068. emcf30
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Quoting WeatherGeek2011:
Oh great, it's happy hour for the trolls in here tonight, it would seem, -___________-. Levi, what are your thoughts on the potential tropical activity for month's end? Could we see Arlene by then? Or more likely in July?


I just asked that question too. See post #982.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
1066. Levi32
Quoting WeatherGeek2011:
Hi Levi, do you think that 94L is good as dead already?


Pretty close, it seems.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
1065. Walshy
Quoting tropicfreak:


You can't ban him, you need to be banned, you have been bashing everyone on here but yourself, boy I can tell you can't stand being wrong. SHEESH!!


Whoa there big boy.
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 904
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
LLC now at 23:45 located at 18.6N 83.2W before, LLC looked very elongated then 23:15 was located 18.7N 83.5W going up to 18.1N 83.0W, before LLC was at 22:45 was located 17.8N/17.7N 83.4W/83.5W, before was 17.9N/18.0N 83.2W/83.3W at 22:15, before that 18.2N 83.3W at 21:45 and before that at 19:45 was at 18.4N 83.1W so its moving WSW

So...many...numbers...
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5690
1063. Levi32
Quoting Grothar:


What about Tropical Storm Christine, 1973?


That was a very special situation where a well-defined circulation developed within a deep moisture layer in the African monsoonal circulation. The upward motion and amount of moisture was sufficient to develop the circulation into a tropical entity. I believe Hurricane Donna also did this. It's very rare, and only occurs under the most extraordinarily favorable circumstances. Consider it sort of like TS Fay strengthening over Florida.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
<-- Sees things getting bad on the blog and goes into lurking.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Quoting FrankZapper:
Troll alert!
Ring the bells! Troll on the loose!
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1059. Grothar
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


You're trying to test him, aren't you? ;)


That's what I'm here for. It is the only way to learn. He does pretty good. Everyone needs a challenge. Levi can take care of himself.
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1058. pottery
Quoting blsealevel:
The storm off of africa and the one in the Carb. look remarkably alike.



Link

LOL, yeah they do!
Good Spotting.
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Quoting pressureman:
yes caneswatch someone thats been right both time for 93 and 94L....IF YOU CALL ME A TROLL AGAIN I WILL SEE PERSONALLY YOU ARE BANNED..


You can't ban him, you need to be banned, you have been bashing everyone on here but yourself, boy I can tell you can't stand being wrong. SHEESH!!
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Quoting caneswatch:


He's just a troll. Ignore him.
Troll alert!
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He's probably stormtop, except he didn't put on any CAPS.
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LLC now at 23:45 located at 18.6N 83.2W before, LLC looked very elongated then 23:15 was located 18.7N 83.5W going up to 18.1N 83.0W, before LLC was at 22:45 was located 17.8N/17.7N 83.4W/83.5W, before was 17.9N/18.0N 83.2W/83.3W at 22:15, before that 18.2N 83.3W at 21:45 and before that at 19:45 was at 18.4N 83.1W so its moving WSW
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12151
1052. Grothar
Quoting WeatherGeek2011:
Hi groth!


Hello.
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1050. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:


Yep, 1.44 inches to be precise but I don't see too much more unless we get a last gasp from 94L tonight.

Someone from one of your Islands was saying 4" ??
Not unlikely, today.

I hope this is the start of a wetter period there, but not too much!
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The storm off of africa and the one in the Carb. look remarkably alike.



Link
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Quoting Walshy:


Whoa there big boy.


For God's sake put him on ignore.
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Quoting caneswatch:


He's just a troll. Ignore him.

Thanks. I'm also suggesting it to Reed.
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Quoting Grothar:


What about Tropical Storm Christine, 1973?


You're trying to test him, aren't you? ;)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
California is getting tons of rain, while here in south florida it's super dry!! we need rain sooooooo bad!!! I hope that it rains soon! I think rainy season has forgotten us!
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Quoting Vincent4989:

Wow! Prove it!


He's just a troll. Ignore him.
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Quoting WeatherGeek2011:
Hi Levi, do you think that 94L is good as dead already?
It's a croaker.
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Quoting pressureman:


OKAY we get it, you don't like reedzone. Give it a rest.
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1039. Grothar
Quoting Levi32:


A very different situation. Tropical wave genesis depends on the land. Tropical waves are actually cold-core while over Africa, and are not driven by tropical processes until they have been over the Atlantic for a while.


What about Tropical Storm Christine, 1973?
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RIP 91E. Sarcasm Intended.
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1037. Walshy
Quoting pressureman:
where is REEDZONE who had this thing becoming ARLENE this evening...what a joke he needs some more schooling...nothing coming down the pipe for at least 3 weeks with the dry air and the shear expecting to pick back up again...this reminds me of last year...i think everything i have looked at so for its going to be a slow year...so you guys just have to have patience not like reedzone who goes bonkers for every blob he sees....well this should teach REEDZONE a lesson not to shoot down someone who is right just because he doesnt think the way REEDZONE does...he is wrong 70% of the time and im being generous...


Whoa there big boy.
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 904
91 in the EPAC is holding steady:

EP, 91, 2011060700, , BEST, 0, 114N, 991W, 25, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 175, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
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Link

Look at this loop, I'm seeing a turning around 17/80 now?
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Quoting pressureman:
where is REEDZONE who had this thing becoming ARLENE this evening...what a joke he needs some more schooling...nothing coming down the pipe for at least 3 weeks with the dry air and the shear expecting to pick back up again...this reminds me of last year...i think everything i have looked at so for its going to be a slow year...so you guys just have to have patience not like reedzone who goes bonkers for every blob he sees....well this should teach REEDZONE a lesson not to shoot down someone who is right just because he doesnt think the way REEDZONE does...he is wrong 70% of the time and im being generous...

Wow! Prove it!
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1032. scott39
Is there even a swirl anymore??
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.