Little change to 94L; exceptional heat in Texas, record rains in California

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 06, 2011

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There is not much change to report on the large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Western Caribbean, between Jamaica and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The disturbance has brought intermittent heavy rains to Jamaica over the past two days, but nearby islands have thus far escaped the deluge. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1" per hour occurred in ocean regions just east of Jamaica this morning, but the heaviest rains have missed the island so far this morning. Visible satellite loops show no increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, and the storm's low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are poorly defined. The storm's center of low pressure is located about 130 miles south of Grand Cayman Island, in a region with no heavy thunderstorm activity. An intense clump of thunderstorms exists on either side of this low, near Jamaica, and just east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Water vapor satellite loops show the Caribbean has moistened over the past two days, and upper air balloon soundings from the Cayman Islands continue to show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 69% last night.) Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through tonight. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1" per hour (orange colors) were estimated by the F-17 satellite for 94L at 7:03am EDT Jun 6, 2011. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Since 94L is so large and poorly organized, today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 00Z and 06Z model runs were unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. A band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models show 94L pushing slowly northwest at about 5 mph, hitting this shear on Tuesday and Wednesday, preventing any further development. The NOGAPS model predicts that a gap may open up in the shear sufficient for the storm to organize into a tropical depression late this week. Given 94L's current disorganization, I doubt the storm will ever develop. NHC gave 94L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, and I believe these odds should be lower, near 20%. Regardless of development, 94L is capable of bringing very heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti through Wednesday. These rains will probably spread northwards into South Florida and the Bahama Islands by Thursday or Friday.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Exceptional heat in the South
A sizzling June heat wave set record high temperatures across much of Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. The high temperature at the Houston, Texas airport hit 105 degrees, the warmest temperature ever recorded in the month of June (old record: 104 degrees on June 24th and June 26th, 2009.) The earliest Houston ever recorded a temperature of 105 degrees prior to Sunday was July 26th, 1954. Records for Houston date back to 1891. There have been only 15 days in which the temperature has reached or exceeded 105 degrees in Houston:

4 - 1909
1 - 1954
2 - 1962
3 - 1980
5 - 2000

So far this month, new maximum temperature records in Houston have been established on four out of the first five days. Galveston and Houston both crushed their previous record high temperature for the day (June 5th) by a remarkable seven degrees. Residents can expect another day of triple-digit heat today, thanks to the upper level ridge of high pressure parked over the state. Houston will likely break the old record of 98°F for the date.


Figure 3. An intense low pressure system moves inland over California as seen in this satellite photo taken June 4, 2011, at 2pm PDT. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Record rains in California
A large and unusually intense low pressure system moved inland over California over the weekend, bringing large areas of the state rains unheard of in June. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, rainfall at Mining Ridge on the Big Sur coast totaled 8.31" Sunday, which, if verified, would be California's heaviest 1-day June rainstorm on record. According to the document "Historic Rainstorms in California" Dept. of Water Resources, Aug. 1997, the previous maximum June daily rainfall was 5.83" at Forni Ridge on June 18, 1982. San Francisco had its 2nd greatest June 1-day rainfall, going back to 1850, and both the San Francisco and Oakland airport have now had their rainiest Junes on record. Rainfall at Santa Barbara Airport yesterday totaled 1.24 inches, the wettest June day there on record (previous record: 0.51" on June 5, 2009.) The 1.38"of rain so far this June has made it the wettest June in recorded history at Santa Barbara Airport, going back to 1941.

Jeff Masters

Sunny California? (turnuptheheat)
Normally June should be warm and dry. Many areas have had more rainfall in one day than they usually get in the entire month of June. All due to this system: http://www.wunderground.com/data/images/GOES_CA_STORM.jpg
Sunny California?

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Debris clean-up: 20,000 cubic yards down, 2.98 million to go

The Army Corps of Engineers estimates the total damage from the May 22 tornado to be 3,000,000 cubic yards - the equivalent to an entire football field including the end zones, stacked 200 feet higher than the Empire State Building.

The Corps has been working with contractors, removing debris. So far they have removed 20,000 cubic yards - less than 1%.

While they have made a small dent in the cleanup they say more help is on the way to help in the removal process.

http://www.koamtv.com/story/14849345/20000-cubic- yards-down Article...

What a mess.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1131. Grothar
Quoting PcolaDan:


Looked around, was afraid to be stuck in the middle with the people in here. :)



Cruel, but very funny. LOL
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1129. Patrap
GFS doom ?
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1128. MTWX
Quoting Patrap:
The 2.1" here came in a lil over a hour between 2 and 3:30,,and was so nice.

I'm jealous Pat!!
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1127. Walshy
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 907
Quoting Grothar:


I thought the last line was "stuck in the middle with you? You're slipping Dan.


Looked around, was afraid to be stuck in the middle with the people in here. :)
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
1124. Patrap
Im so confused now..


Its cool outside,,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TomTaylor:
I look at stuff coming off Africa in March lol

No chance of development, but I dont care, it's still fun to watch


...lol.... :)
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Quoting Grothar:


They'all can drive you to distraction, eh, Pat????


Sorry Pat and Grothar. Trying to knock some sense into a little kid LOL
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1121. Levi32
Quoting scott39:
Does that help it?


If the central pressure of the disturbance is falling then yes that helps it. Part of me doubts it though, as the lack of convection strongly suggests that the low is weakening. We will find out in time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:
AL, 94, 2011060618, , BEST, 0, 180N, 819W, 25, 1006, DB

Pressure is lower than 91E's, appearently.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting connie1976:
It's early and you all are already looking at stuff off of africa?


Gotta make sure no Libyans are embedded in anything and headed this way. :|
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
1118. Grothar
Quoting Patrap:
"Lawdy"

LoL


They'all can drive you to distraction, eh, Pat????
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Quoting Grothar:


I know, I was there for all of them. I had just started school in Miami in 1960 when Donna it. We had moved back temporarily from Germany. Some homecoming.

Strange that you mention it but I always had you as in the college of Avalon teaching Merlin, possibly from knowledge gained from Gandalf!
Evening sage Grother.
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It may be on the decline, but pressure is down another notch. Winds are still at 25 knots:

AL, 94, 2011060700, , BEST, 0, 177N, 815W, 25, 1005, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 300, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
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1114. scott39
Quoting Levi32:


It means that if the diurnal cycle is being delayed, it could indicate the 94L's central pressure is still falling, partially offsetting the rebound in pressure that is usually starting by now.
Does that help it?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6914
1113. Grothar
Quoting PcolaDan:
rain to the left of me
rain to the right of me
stuck in the middle again



I thought the last line was "stuck in the middle with you? You're slipping Dan.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
AL, 94, 2011060618, , BEST, 0, 180N, 819W, 25, 1006, DB
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Quoting congaline:
Rain coming our way here in Fl, but not from the direction we thought! Love the surprises of this season, and my bet is it's going to be endlessly surprising one, good to have everyone on board for the adventure.


200 miles to go, hopefully it can maintain some moisture. Glad to have you aboard as well.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
1110. Patrap
"Lawdy"

LoL
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1109. Levi32
Quoting scott39:
What does that mean in laymen terms?


It means that if the diurnal cycle is being delayed, it could indicate the 94L's central pressure is still falling, partially offsetting the rebound in pressure that is usually starting by this time of day.
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Quoting connie1976:
It's early and you all are already looking at stuff off of africa?
I look at stuff coming off Africa in March lol

No chance of development, but I dont care, it's still fun to watch
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Quoting alfabob:


Vorticity all spread out all over the place and not consolidated...94L is pretty much dead.
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1106. Patrap
The 2.1" here came in a lil over a hour between 2 and 3:30,,and was so nice.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
For some resone my quote button ant working right
must have some kind if infection or something
Anyway thank you Pottery
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1104. Grothar
Quoting Levi32:


Hmm....he slips up and yields a clue...


Ah, but you don't know if it was Kindegarten or college. LOL
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As much as it annoys me sometimes...the fact that all this drama going on in the blog is a sure sign of hurricane season for sure. Six days down, only way more than six to go.
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rain to the left of me
rain to the right of me
stuck in the middle again

Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting pottery:

Someone from one of your Islands was saying 4" ??
Not unlikely, today.

I hope this is the start of a wetter period there, but not too much!


1.44 at my home on the SW end of Grand Cayman. Other areas may have received more or less.
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1098. scott39
Quoting Levi32:
Interesting. 0z has arrived, and the diurnal cycle has not yet started up at buoy 42057, something that hasn't occurred on any other day on the graph.

What does that mean in laymen terms?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6914
1097. Grothar
Quoting emcf30:


Grothar, I would give him an A for that on. Boy Donna was a mess for me, will never forget that one


No, just an A-. Too much attitude. LOL
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and i Quote
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1094. MTWX
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
<-- Sees things getting bad on the blog and goes into lurking.

This is why I keep my mouth shut most of the time, and just read....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1093. Levi32
Quoting Grothar:


I know, I was there for all of them. I had just started school in Miami in 1960 when Donna it. We had moved back temporarily from Germany. Some homecoming.


Hmm....he slips up and yields a clue...
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did someone say rain was coming florida's way? I sure hope so because everything is almost dead here in south florida!
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Quoting Vincent4989:

1000000.




thanks
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Quoting caneswatch:


Good God, didn't I just go through this with you?

ENOUGH!!!!!!!
Quote CW "I do not even say the word troll on here. You have me confused with someone else. " Not!
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Quoting Walshy:


Whoa there big boy.
dude's hella trollin
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oops sould have put why not
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1086. Levi32
Interesting. 0z has arrived, and the diurnal cycle has not yet started up at buoy 42057, something that hasn't occurred on any other day on the graph.

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1084. Grothar
Quoting Levi32:


That was a very special situation where a well-defined circulation developed within a deep moisture layer in the African monsoonal circulation. The upward motion and amount of moisture was sufficient to develop the circulation into a tropical entity. I believe Hurricane Donna also did this. It's very rare, and only occurs under the most extraordinarily favorable circumstances. Consider it sort of like TS Fay strengthening over Florida.


I know, I was there for all of them. I had just started school in Miami in 1960 when Donna it. We had moved back temporarily from Germany. Some homecoming.
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1083. Walshy
Attack of the Trolls

The National Hurricane Center has issued a troll advisory. Some strengthening is possible at 40%.
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 907
Quoting pottery:

Someone from one of your Islands was saying 4" ??
Not unlikely, today.

I hope this is the start of a wetter period there, but not too much!


picky picky picky
Just no pleasing you is there? ;>)










oh wait














rum :)
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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