Little change to 94L; exceptional heat in Texas, record rains in California

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 06, 2011

Share this Blog
11
+

There is not much change to report on the large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Western Caribbean, between Jamaica and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The disturbance has brought intermittent heavy rains to Jamaica over the past two days, but nearby islands have thus far escaped the deluge. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1" per hour occurred in ocean regions just east of Jamaica this morning, but the heaviest rains have missed the island so far this morning. Visible satellite loops show no increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, and the storm's low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are poorly defined. The storm's center of low pressure is located about 130 miles south of Grand Cayman Island, in a region with no heavy thunderstorm activity. An intense clump of thunderstorms exists on either side of this low, near Jamaica, and just east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Water vapor satellite loops show the Caribbean has moistened over the past two days, and upper air balloon soundings from the Cayman Islands continue to show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 69% last night.) Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through tonight. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1" per hour (orange colors) were estimated by the F-17 satellite for 94L at 7:03am EDT Jun 6, 2011. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Since 94L is so large and poorly organized, today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 00Z and 06Z model runs were unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. A band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models show 94L pushing slowly northwest at about 5 mph, hitting this shear on Tuesday and Wednesday, preventing any further development. The NOGAPS model predicts that a gap may open up in the shear sufficient for the storm to organize into a tropical depression late this week. Given 94L's current disorganization, I doubt the storm will ever develop. NHC gave 94L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, and I believe these odds should be lower, near 20%. Regardless of development, 94L is capable of bringing very heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti through Wednesday. These rains will probably spread northwards into South Florida and the Bahama Islands by Thursday or Friday.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Exceptional heat in the South
A sizzling June heat wave set record high temperatures across much of Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. The high temperature at the Houston, Texas airport hit 105 degrees, the warmest temperature ever recorded in the month of June (old record: 104 degrees on June 24th and June 26th, 2009.) The earliest Houston ever recorded a temperature of 105 degrees prior to Sunday was July 26th, 1954. Records for Houston date back to 1891. There have been only 15 days in which the temperature has reached or exceeded 105 degrees in Houston:

4 - 1909
1 - 1954
2 - 1962
3 - 1980
5 - 2000

So far this month, new maximum temperature records in Houston have been established on four out of the first five days. Galveston and Houston both crushed their previous record high temperature for the day (June 5th) by a remarkable seven degrees. Residents can expect another day of triple-digit heat today, thanks to the upper level ridge of high pressure parked over the state. Houston will likely break the old record of 98°F for the date.


Figure 3. An intense low pressure system moves inland over California as seen in this satellite photo taken June 4, 2011, at 2pm PDT. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Record rains in California
A large and unusually intense low pressure system moved inland over California over the weekend, bringing large areas of the state rains unheard of in June. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, rainfall at Mining Ridge on the Big Sur coast totaled 8.31" Sunday, which, if verified, would be California's heaviest 1-day June rainstorm on record. According to the document "Historic Rainstorms in California" Dept. of Water Resources, Aug. 1997, the previous maximum June daily rainfall was 5.83" at Forni Ridge on June 18, 1982. San Francisco had its 2nd greatest June 1-day rainfall, going back to 1850, and both the San Francisco and Oakland airport have now had their rainiest Junes on record. Rainfall at Santa Barbara Airport yesterday totaled 1.24 inches, the wettest June day there on record (previous record: 0.51" on June 5, 2009.) The 1.38"of rain so far this June has made it the wettest June in recorded history at Santa Barbara Airport, going back to 1941.

Jeff Masters

Sunny California? (turnuptheheat)
Normally June should be warm and dry. Many areas have had more rainfall in one day than they usually get in the entire month of June. All due to this system: http://www.wunderground.com/data/images/GOES_CA_STORM.jpg
Sunny California?

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1182 - 1132

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37Blog Index

1182. Patrap
Quoting MTWX:

That list there about sums it up for my personal experiences... Pleasures of being stationed in Biloxi!!


I went thru Elena in 85 on Pass Road near the Seabee Base.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127847
Quoting Grothar:


That, I assure you, came much later. It was at Cambridge where I learned the proper use of the term "twit". Never thought I would have much use for it in the states, since there were so many other variations. LOL (I'll get you for that one, Tom)


But you sure have grown fond of it. ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:




and i Quote






TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUN 6 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES
SOUTH OF ACAPULCO HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
IN ADDITION...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS NOT YET
WELL-DEFINED.
HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF
THIS SYSTEM WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.

But think there are 70% chances NHC will designate it as a TD in their next advisory.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
Debris clean-up: 20,000 cubic yards down, 2.98 million to go

The Army Corps of Engineers estimates the total damage from the May 22 tornado to be 3,000,000 cubic yards - the equivalent to an entire football field including the end zones, stacked 200 feet higher than the Empire State Building.

The Corps has been working with contractors, removing debris. So far they have removed 20,000 cubic yards - less than 1%.

While they have made a small dent in the cleanup they say more help is on the way to help in the removal process.

http://www.koamtv.com/story/14849345/20000-cubic- yards-down Article...

What a mess.

I wonder how many of these towns will take the Green route in rebuilding like Greensburge is/has.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1178. MTWX
Quoting Patrap:
Ivan had NOLA evacuating in 04, as Dennis did as well in 05..

Way before K.


That list there about sums it up for my personal experiences... Pleasures of being stationed in Biloxi!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1176. Grothar
Quoting pottery:

Yeah!
Someone should call the Bouncers...


What is the very Hurricane you can remember, pot. (Please only go back one century)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26024
Quoting Grothar:



No, but I did spend some time at Cambridge. Sigwick Ave. That is probably why I write so funny; or so I have been told.


Shucks and we were at Oxford,
Given the perfect physic we could have rowed it out on the Thames!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1174. Patrap
Quoting WeatherGeek2011:


wow, your'e from New Orleans, right?


Indeed WG2011
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127847
Quoting Vincent4989:
What 91E lacks to become a tropical depression?




and i Quote






TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUN 6 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES
SOUTH OF ACAPULCO HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
IN ADDITION...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS NOT YET
WELL-DEFINED.
HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF
THIS SYSTEM WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114959
1172. Patrap
Lotsa drought areas still,,and hopefully the Trof along the GOM will help a few more folks

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127847
1171. Grothar
Quoting TomTaylor:
or maybe you were going back to school to teach as a professor??


That, I assure you, came much later. It was at Cambridge where I learned the proper use of the term "twit". Never thought I would have much use for it in the states, since there were so many other variations. LOL (I'll get you for that one, Tom)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26024
Quoting MTWX:

Ivan in '04 was my first first hand hurricane experience... Pleasures of living up north most my life!

Georges was my first hurricane, but I don't think it counts since I was still a baby.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
The 2.1" here came in a lil over a hour between 2 and 3:30,,and was so nice.


:( need tons here
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ezcColony:
But the moves have done little to protect the golden eagles, which weigh about 14 pounds and stand up to 409 inches tall.

Now THAT is one Tall, Slender Bird! 34 Feet just about, and only 14 pounds!

LOL!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What 91E lacks to become a tropical depression?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RustyShackleford:


Your telling somebody with over 3000 comments he is a troll compared to your 100 comments. Plus you've been a member for a little over a week now.

You are utterly ridiculous and clouding up the blog with this irritating non sense.
Read post 1043 several times and note it's TIME STAMP and compare it to my post and what I told YOU. BTW are you CW? A large # posts does not make you or him? Pope of WU.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1162. Patrap
Ivan had NOLA evacuating in 04, as Dennis did as well in 05..

Way before K.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127847
I also went through Donna and Betsy. I lived in W. Palm, Fort Lauderdale and Miami from 1961 to 1995. Later I moved to Port Charlotte...

Quoting WeatherGeek2011:
Interesting, you went through Donna and Betsy, Groth?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
and i Quote







now one saw my commet 1143 i was thinking evere one will be going LOL
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114959
Everyone say goodbye to 94L. convection has more or less disappeared and is not firing over the Nic/Bel boarder. as can been see on WV loop. Also there is a nice moisture stream surging across the ATL with the ITCZ and embedded T-Waves.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1158. Grothar
Quoting PlazaRed:

Strange that you mention it but I always had you as in the college of Avalon teaching Merlin, possibly from knowledge gained from Gandalf!
Evening sage Grother.



No, but I did spend some time at Cambridge. Sigwick Ave. That is probably why I write so funny; or so I have been told.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26024
1157. pottery
Quoting KoritheMan:
Good evening, gentleman. I see 94L is up to its usual tricks.

Yeah!
Someone should call the Bouncers...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24261
Quoting Neapolitan:
Debris clean-up: 20,000 cubic yards down, 2.98 million to go

The Army Corps of Engineers estimates the total damage from the May 22 tornado to be 3,000,000 cubic yards - the equivalent to an entire football field including the end zones, stacked 200 feet higher than the Empire State Building.

The Corps has been working with contractors, removing debris. So far they have removed 20,000 cubic yards - less than 1%.

While they have made a small dent in the cleanup they say more help is on the way to help in the removal process.

http://www.koamtv.com/story/14849345/20000-cubic- yards-down Article...

What a mess.


I would guess they bury most of it an recycle what they can?
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
1155. MTWX
Quoting Patrap:
Betsy was my first Dance with the Eyewall, Cat 3 style.

Ivan in '04 was my first first hand hurricane experience... Pleasures of living up north most my life!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Not dropping, just stalled. I've seen it before. That said, 3 identical readings in a row could be fishy as well. We'll see what the next hourly report brings in about 25 minutes.


That or it's about to blow in a big way. Maybe Harold Camping was right and we're left to deal with failing equipment?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1153. Patrap
Quoting WeatherGeek2011:


Goodness gracious, really Pat? =(.



Indeed,,I was 5.7 years old and it was a Long night fer sure,,


K struck 40 years later when I was 45
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127847
1152. emcf30
That's interesting that 94L has gone down in pressure. Did not expect that
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1150. Patrap
Pressure is not a tell all of intensity,,ever..esp in a Large Monsoonal type gyre as 94L is.

The Fat Ballerina takes a lotta time to gather dem arms in and twirl
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127847
Quoting Grothar:


Ah, but you don't know if it was Kindegarten or college. LOL
or maybe you were going back to school to teach as a professor??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good evening, gentleman. I see 94L is up to its usual tricks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:


its lower now

AL, 94, 2011060700, , BEST, 0, 177N, 815W, 25, 1005, DB


are we sure this thing is dead? lol

1005mb is the equivalent of a 40mph TS or a TD at least. 94L is weird.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1144. Levi32
Quoting scott39:
Thanks, I thought the Dmin is causing the lack of convection? If the pressure goes down, wont Dmax give it new convection, and it will start out better Tuesday than it did today?


We'll see what it does during diurnal maximum tonight, but it has quite a long way to go.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
and i Quote




94L is RIP
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114959
1142. Levi32
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Have to assume failure, I can't imagine the diurnal cycle not showing up. I think that would be a little bigger event than our 94L invest, lol. Devoid of convection it's hard to think pressures are still dropping above the cycle.


Not dropping, just stalled. I've seen it before. That said, 3 identical readings in a row could be fishy as well. We'll see what the next hourly report brings in about 25 minutes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1141. scott39
Quoting Levi32:


If the central pressure of the disturbance is falling then yes that helps it. Part of me doubts it though, as the lack of convection strongly suggests that the low is weakening. We will find out in time.
Thanks, I thought the Dmin is causing the lack of convection? If the pressure goes down, wont Dmax give it new convection, and it will start out better Tuesday than it did today?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6755
1140. Patrap
Betsy was my first Dance with the Eyewall, Cat 3 style.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127847
Quoting Hurricanes101:


its lower now

AL, 94, 2011060700, , BEST, 0, 177N, 815W, 25, 1005, DB


are we sure this thing is dead? lol


The pressure makes me want to reconsider that this thing is dead. We know that 94L has always had a problem with convection anyways. Idk...I'm still fairly certain it will not survive.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1138. Levi32
The 12z ECMWF ensembles have a lot of member variance west of Florida in 4 days, indicating that some members have 94L actually fairly potent in the eastern gulf. Some hope remains, though 94L looks to be losing the battle right now.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ezcColony:
The green killer: Scores of protected golden eagles dying after colliding with wind turbines

California's attempts to switch to green energy have inadvertently put the survival of the state’s golden eagles at risk.

Scores of the protected birds have been dying each year after colliding with the blades of about 5,000 wind turbines.

Now the drive for renewable power sources, such as wind and the sun, being promoted by President Obama and state Governor Jerry Brown has raised fears that the number of newborn golden eagles may not be able to keep pace with the number of turbine fatalities.
Not eagle friendly: Scores of Golden Eagles have been dying each year after colliding with the blades of about 5,000 wind turbines

Not eagle friendly: Scores of Golden Eagles have been dying each year after colliding with the blades of about 5,000 wind turbines

The death count along the ridgelines of the Bay Area’s Altamount Pass Wind Resource Area has averaged 67 a year for three decades.

The 200ft high turbines, which have been operating since the 1980s, lie in the heart of the grassy canyons that are home to one of the highest densities of nesting golden eagles in the US.

‘It would take 167 pairs of local nesting golden eagles to produce enough young to compensate for their mortality rate related to wind energy production,’ field biologist Doug Bell, manager of East Bay Regional Park District's wildlife programme, told the Los Angeles Times. ‘We only have 60 pairs,’ he added.

Field biologists, monitoring the birds, say it would take 167 pairs of local nesting eagles to produce enough young to compensate for the loses. Currently they only have 60 pairs

Field biologists, monitoring the birds, say it would take 167 pairs of local nesting eagles to produce enough young to compensate for the loses. Currently they only have 60 pairs

Nationwide, about 440,000 birds are said to be accidentally killed at wind farms each year, as well as thousands more bats. With the government pushing for more wind energy farms, that statistic is likely to rise.

Another recovering species, the California Condor, is also said to be at risk from the giant blades.

‘We taxpayers have spent millions of dollars saving the California condor from extinction,’ Gary George, spokesman for Audubon California, told the Times.
Wind power, which is being promoted by President Obama, right, and California state Governor, Jerry Brown, left, has raised fears about the number of newborn golden eagles who may not keep up with the number of turbine fatalities.

‘How's the public going to feel about wind energy if a condor hits the turbines?’

Newer carbines are said to be less harmful to birds and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has asked power bosses to turn off the wind machines during times of heavy bird migration.

But the moves have done little to protect the golden eagles, which weigh about 14 pounds and stand up to 409 inches tall.

Their flight behaviour makes it difficult for them to navigate through masses of wind turbine towers, especially when they are easily distracted by prey on the ground.

‘The eagles usually die of blunt-force trauma injuries,’ said Mr Bell.

‘Once, I discovered a wounded golden eagle hobbling through tall grass, about a quarter mile from the turbine blades that had clipped its flight feathers.’

‘A wind farm owner once told me that if there were no witnesses, it would be impossible to prove a bird had been killed by a wind turbine blade.

My response was this: If you see a golden eagle sliced in half in a wind farm, what other explanation is there?’ he added.

Long post!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1136. Grothar
Quoting WeatherGeek2011:
Interesting, you went through Donna and Betsy, Groth?


I think Betsy was 1965. I was in Norway, getting ready to go into the Army here.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26024
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Pressure is lower than 91E's, appearently.


its lower now

AL, 94, 2011060700, , BEST, 0, 177N, 815W, 25, 1005, DB


are we sure this thing is dead? lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1134. Patrap
Quoting MTWX:

I'm jealous Pat!!



It was schweet,,but I was caught under a Audoboun PArk Shelter for all of it,,Hail,Wind,Lightening bolts from Thor..

I got pics and video too,,but Im too pooped to upload
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127847
Quoting Levi32:
Interesting. 0z has arrived, and the diurnal cycle has not yet started up at buoy 42057, something that hasn't occurred on any other day on the graph.



Have to assume failure, I can't imagine the diurnal cycle not showing up. I think that would be a little bigger event than our 94L invest, lol. Devoid of convection it's hard to think pressures are still dropping above the cycle.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Debris clean-up: 20,000 cubic yards down, 2.98 million to go

The Army Corps of Engineers estimates the total damage from the May 22 tornado to be 3,000,000 cubic yards - the equivalent to an entire football field including the end zones, stacked 200 feet higher than the Empire State Building.

The Corps has been working with contractors, removing debris. So far they have removed 20,000 cubic yards - less than 1%.

While they have made a small dent in the cleanup they say more help is on the way to help in the removal process.

http://www.koamtv.com/story/14849345/20000-cubic- yards-down Article...

What a mess.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1182 - 1132

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.