Little change to 94L; exceptional heat in Texas, record rains in California

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 06, 2011

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There is not much change to report on the large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Western Caribbean, between Jamaica and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The disturbance has brought intermittent heavy rains to Jamaica over the past two days, but nearby islands have thus far escaped the deluge. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1" per hour occurred in ocean regions just east of Jamaica this morning, but the heaviest rains have missed the island so far this morning. Visible satellite loops show no increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, and the storm's low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are poorly defined. The storm's center of low pressure is located about 130 miles south of Grand Cayman Island, in a region with no heavy thunderstorm activity. An intense clump of thunderstorms exists on either side of this low, near Jamaica, and just east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Water vapor satellite loops show the Caribbean has moistened over the past two days, and upper air balloon soundings from the Cayman Islands continue to show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 69% last night.) Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through tonight. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1" per hour (orange colors) were estimated by the F-17 satellite for 94L at 7:03am EDT Jun 6, 2011. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Since 94L is so large and poorly organized, today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 00Z and 06Z model runs were unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. A band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models show 94L pushing slowly northwest at about 5 mph, hitting this shear on Tuesday and Wednesday, preventing any further development. The NOGAPS model predicts that a gap may open up in the shear sufficient for the storm to organize into a tropical depression late this week. Given 94L's current disorganization, I doubt the storm will ever develop. NHC gave 94L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, and I believe these odds should be lower, near 20%. Regardless of development, 94L is capable of bringing very heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti through Wednesday. These rains will probably spread northwards into South Florida and the Bahama Islands by Thursday or Friday.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Exceptional heat in the South
A sizzling June heat wave set record high temperatures across much of Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. The high temperature at the Houston, Texas airport hit 105 degrees, the warmest temperature ever recorded in the month of June (old record: 104 degrees on June 24th and June 26th, 2009.) The earliest Houston ever recorded a temperature of 105 degrees prior to Sunday was July 26th, 1954. Records for Houston date back to 1891. There have been only 15 days in which the temperature has reached or exceeded 105 degrees in Houston:

4 - 1909
1 - 1954
2 - 1962
3 - 1980
5 - 2000

So far this month, new maximum temperature records in Houston have been established on four out of the first five days. Galveston and Houston both crushed their previous record high temperature for the day (June 5th) by a remarkable seven degrees. Residents can expect another day of triple-digit heat today, thanks to the upper level ridge of high pressure parked over the state. Houston will likely break the old record of 98°F for the date.


Figure 3. An intense low pressure system moves inland over California as seen in this satellite photo taken June 4, 2011, at 2pm PDT. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Record rains in California
A large and unusually intense low pressure system moved inland over California over the weekend, bringing large areas of the state rains unheard of in June. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, rainfall at Mining Ridge on the Big Sur coast totaled 8.31" Sunday, which, if verified, would be California's heaviest 1-day June rainstorm on record. According to the document "Historic Rainstorms in California" Dept. of Water Resources, Aug. 1997, the previous maximum June daily rainfall was 5.83" at Forni Ridge on June 18, 1982. San Francisco had its 2nd greatest June 1-day rainfall, going back to 1850, and both the San Francisco and Oakland airport have now had their rainiest Junes on record. Rainfall at Santa Barbara Airport yesterday totaled 1.24 inches, the wettest June day there on record (previous record: 0.51" on June 5, 2009.) The 1.38"of rain so far this June has made it the wettest June in recorded history at Santa Barbara Airport, going back to 1941.

Jeff Masters

Sunny California? (turnuptheheat)
Normally June should be warm and dry. Many areas have had more rainfall in one day than they usually get in the entire month of June. All due to this system: http://www.wunderground.com/data/images/GOES_CA_STORM.jpg
Sunny California?

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Quoting pottery:

You are correct. Which would have put me at 7 years old.
You must forgive my memory...
spent too long in the sun today mixing concrete.
Do you realise that concrete is actually 2 FourLetter words joined together?
I'm Wracked!


I was once 'racked'...you've seen the photo...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1231. Grothar
Quoting bwi:
Regarding post 1130.

I am very interested to see a bird with these dimensions:

But the moves have done little to protect the golden eagles, which weigh about 14 pounds and stand up to 409 inches tall.

If my arithmetic is correct, that would be a 34 foot tall bird!


So what you are saying is, you never saw Sesame Street?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
1230. pottery
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Janet was 1955, I just made you 4 years younger lol

You are correct. Which would have put me at 7 years old.
You must forgive my memory...
spent too long in the sun today mixing concrete.
Do you realise that concrete is actually 2 FourLetter words joined together?
I'm Wracked!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24038
1228. Grothar
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
SVR T-STORM WARNING BILLINGS MT - KBYZ 716 PM MDT MON JUN 6 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING BILLINGS MT - KBYZ 712 PM MDT MON JUN 6 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING RAPID CITY SD - KUNR 711 PM MDT MON JUN 6 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING POCATELLO - KPIH 709 PM MDT MON JUN 6 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING BILLINGS MT - KBYZ 655 PM MDT MON JUN 6 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING BILLINGS MT - KBYZ 650 PM MDT MON JUN 6 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING GREAT FALLS MT - KTFX 644 PM MDT MON JUN 6 2011
SVR T-STORM WARNING RAPID CITY SD - KUNR 643 PM MDT MON JUN 6 2011




Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
1226. bwi
Regarding post 1130.

I am very interested to see a bird with these dimensions:

But the moves have done little to protect the golden eagles, which weigh about 14 pounds and stand up to 409 inches tall.

If my arithmetic is correct, that would be a 34 foot tall bird!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1225. JLPR2
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I didn't get much rain today. I'm guessing I'll get a ton tomorrow.


If this blob reaches PR whole then we will see too much of it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:
MONTANA?

anyone wanna discuss AGW?

heheheh


Please don't start that up....
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1223. centex
Quoting muddertracker:
From Cedar Park TX...on vacation in Denver...it was 92 degrees here today!!! I just can't escape the heat....steaks tonight at some place owned by John Elway...supposed to be good.
It's 100+ at home so 92 sounds cold, especially with humidity. Hot day and night here.
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1222. Walshy
Montana Tornado Sigs
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1221. MTWX
Quoting pottery:
MONTANA?

anyone wanna discuss AGW?

heheheh

No fair Pot!!
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Hello everyone!

Is that burst of convection at 15N 84W part of 94L?
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Quoting PcolaDan:


And after, all those people outside cooking up their food before it spoiled. And giving lots of it to us Airmen who were out cutting trees and clearing debris. Ate GOOOOOD stuff from them local folks.
The supermarkets down here donated all their frozen meats etc. to a church down here after Ivan to cook for whoever needed it. Lots of people ate steak and lobster that couldn't normal afford it. One supermarket gave away $50 worth of groceries each day for a week to whoever showed up.
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1218. Patrap
Quoting PcolaDan:


And after, all those people outside cooking up their food before it spoiled. And giving lots of it to us Airmen who were out cutting trees and clearing debris. Ate GOOOOOD stuff from them local folks.




Yes,I believe power was out for a week or so in the area.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127569
1217. MTWX
Quoting PcolaDan:


Yep

What AFSC?? I was a MetNav technician, before being seperated, I work on the radars now for the AF as a civilian.
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1216. pottery
MONTANA?

anyone wanna discuss AGW?

heheheh
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24038
Still a lot of smoke here in FLA tonight. We really need those showers from Jamaica.
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Quoting Grothar:
That blob over Nicaragua and Honduras has me just a little concerned. The system itself does not look very healthy though.

I don't know that that is necessarily a good thing.

Could end up steeling away some of the moisture in the area, and may also alter the surface winds in the area, which could hurt 94l.
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Quoting MTWX:

AF??


Yep
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting Patrap:


Indeed,,the other end of da road.


And after, all those people outside cooking up their food before it spoiled. And giving lots of it to us Airmen who were out cutting trees and clearing debris. Ate GOOOOOD stuff from them local folks.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
I still think 94L has a good shot at becoming a TS. The fact that is remaining almost stationary is its saving grace for now. I think tomorrow it has to do or don't though.
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Quoting pottery:

Janet in '51 is a 'sort' of memory (I would have been 3, so I kind of doubt I remember that).
But the conversations must have made an impression on me. Also, she was talked about down here for years!
Did not affect Trinidad, but Barbados, Grenada, Beyond...

I do not think we have ever had a Hurricane here.
Close passes and landfalls include Alma which did some damage, Ivan that caused all kinds of horrors especially on Tobago (part of the Republic of Trinidad&Tobago), and quite a few feeder bands over the years that brought torrential rains with all that goes with it.

We are too far South at 11N to really be in danger of Wind.
Water is of course a problem.


Janet was 1955, I just made you 4 years younger lol
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


What concerns me is that blob SW of Puerto Rico, that for sure will dump more rain that we dont need. Flash flood up is up until tommorow afternoon.

I didn't get much rain today. I'm guessing I'll get a ton tomorrow.
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1208. MTWX
Quoting PcolaDan:


I was at Keesler.

AF??
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1207. Walshy
Montana
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From Cedar Park TX...on vacation in Denver...it was 92 degrees here today!!! I just can't escape the heat....steaks tonight at some place owned by John Elway...supposed to be good.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
That blob over Nicaragua and Honduras has me just a little concerned. The system itself does not look very healthy though.



What concerns me is that blob SW of Puerto Rico, that for sure will dump more rain that we dont need. Flash flood watch is up until tommorow afternoon.
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1204. aquak9
no duck
no pond
'nuff said
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1203. MTWX
Quoting Walshy:
Montana Trouble


I saw that. the storm is near big timber. Thats all MT needs is more rain!! My folks live in Great Falls, and told me earlier the dams are wide open to try and relieve the pressure of the flood waters!
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1202. centex
Quoting CybrTeddy:
There's a 30% chance that I'm 70% sure that 94L will become a TD. :P
I think that means 21% chance. I think time as run out, but maybe it makes a last ditch effort. Here in central the drought continues and in tease pattern which is forecast to turn even more dry through next weekend.
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Quoting Grothar:
That blob over Nicaragua and Honduras has me just a little concerned. The system itself does not look very healthy though.


That's what i am seeing too. especially on WV loop.
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1200. whadat
Here, here!
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1199. pottery
Quoting Grothar:


What is the very Hurricane you can remember, pot. (Please only go back one century)

Janet in '51 is a 'sort' of memory (I would have been 3, so I kind of doubt I remember that).
But the conversations must have made an impression on me. Also, she was talked about down here for years!
Did not affect Trinidad, but Tobago, Barbados, Grenada, Beyond...

I do not think we have ever had a Hurricane here.
Close passes and landfalls include Alma which did some damage, Ivan that caused all kinds of horrors especially on Tobago (part of the Republic of Trinidad&Tobago), and quite a few feeder bands over the years that brought torrential rains with all that goes with it.

We are too far South at 11N to really be in danger of Wind.
Water is of course a problem.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24038
1198. Patrap
Quoting PcolaDan:


I was at Keesler.


Indeed,,the other end of da road.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127569
Quoting congaline:
Rain coming our way here in Fl, but not from the direction we thought! Love the surprises of this season, and my bet is it's going to be endlessly surprising one, good to have everyone on board for the adventure.
Welcome aboard neighbor. There's surprises of one sort or another every season. For now, you may not know what I mean, but I'd advise to be wary of strangers offering pedicures. Be well and stay safe.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5528
1196. Patrap
Paloma it will never be,,94L,,never was so much said by so many on so Little,,me included
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127569
Quoting Patrap:


I went thru Elena in 85 on Pass Road near the Seabee Base.


I was at Keesler.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting CybrTeddy:
There's a 30% chance that I'm 70% sure that 94L will become a TD. :P
I'd say there's about a 50% chance that you are 100% correct
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Quoting Tazmanian:




and i Quote






TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUN 6 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES
SOUTH OF ACAPULCO HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
IN ADDITION...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS NOT YET
WELL-DEFINED.
HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF
THIS SYSTEM WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.


Their ya go lol
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1192. Grothar
That blob over Nicaragua and Honduras has me just a little concerned. The system itself does not look very healthy though.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
Quoting Grothar:


I can see us now.



You win tonight,!
2am on the chilly north Yorkshire moors of the UK,
Good night everybody.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
There's a 30% chance that I'm 70% sure that 94L will become a TD. :P

lolwut
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
There's a 30% chance that I'm 70% sure that 94L will become a TD. :P
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1188. Patrap
Elena in 85 as the Eye came Directly over Biloxi,Gulfport.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127569
1187. Grothar
Quoting PlazaRed:


Shucks and we were at Oxford,
Given the perfect physic we could have rowed it out on the Thames!


I can see us now.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
On May 30 this NOGAPS 180 hrs. forecast was posted by some of us... yeah, 7 days ago.... and we're here and will keep posting.... Interesting...



0z NOGAPS 180 hours:



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Quoting Vincent4989:

But think there are 70% chances NHC will designate it as a TD in their next advisory.




and i Quote



yes there may be
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114732
1184. cg2916
Quoting Tazmanian:
and i Quote







now one saw my commet 1143 i was thinking evere one will be going LOL


No! No! I hate Michael Cole!
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1183. Walshy
Montana Trouble

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1182. Patrap
Quoting MTWX:

That list there about sums it up for my personal experiences... Pleasures of being stationed in Biloxi!!


I went thru Elena in 85 on Pass Road near the Seabee Base.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127569

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.