Little change to 94L; exceptional heat in Texas, record rains in California

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 06, 2011

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There is not much change to report on the large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Western Caribbean, between Jamaica and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The disturbance has brought intermittent heavy rains to Jamaica over the past two days, but nearby islands have thus far escaped the deluge. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1" per hour occurred in ocean regions just east of Jamaica this morning, but the heaviest rains have missed the island so far this morning. Visible satellite loops show no increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, and the storm's low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are poorly defined. The storm's center of low pressure is located about 130 miles south of Grand Cayman Island, in a region with no heavy thunderstorm activity. An intense clump of thunderstorms exists on either side of this low, near Jamaica, and just east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Water vapor satellite loops show the Caribbean has moistened over the past two days, and upper air balloon soundings from the Cayman Islands continue to show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 69% last night.) Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through tonight. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1" per hour (orange colors) were estimated by the F-17 satellite for 94L at 7:03am EDT Jun 6, 2011. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Since 94L is so large and poorly organized, today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 00Z and 06Z model runs were unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. A band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models show 94L pushing slowly northwest at about 5 mph, hitting this shear on Tuesday and Wednesday, preventing any further development. The NOGAPS model predicts that a gap may open up in the shear sufficient for the storm to organize into a tropical depression late this week. Given 94L's current disorganization, I doubt the storm will ever develop. NHC gave 94L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, and I believe these odds should be lower, near 20%. Regardless of development, 94L is capable of bringing very heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti through Wednesday. These rains will probably spread northwards into South Florida and the Bahama Islands by Thursday or Friday.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Exceptional heat in the South
A sizzling June heat wave set record high temperatures across much of Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. The high temperature at the Houston, Texas airport hit 105 degrees, the warmest temperature ever recorded in the month of June (old record: 104 degrees on June 24th and June 26th, 2009.) The earliest Houston ever recorded a temperature of 105 degrees prior to Sunday was July 26th, 1954. Records for Houston date back to 1891. There have been only 15 days in which the temperature has reached or exceeded 105 degrees in Houston:

4 - 1909
1 - 1954
2 - 1962
3 - 1980
5 - 2000

So far this month, new maximum temperature records in Houston have been established on four out of the first five days. Galveston and Houston both crushed their previous record high temperature for the day (June 5th) by a remarkable seven degrees. Residents can expect another day of triple-digit heat today, thanks to the upper level ridge of high pressure parked over the state. Houston will likely break the old record of 98°F for the date.


Figure 3. An intense low pressure system moves inland over California as seen in this satellite photo taken June 4, 2011, at 2pm PDT. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Record rains in California
A large and unusually intense low pressure system moved inland over California over the weekend, bringing large areas of the state rains unheard of in June. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, rainfall at Mining Ridge on the Big Sur coast totaled 8.31" Sunday, which, if verified, would be California's heaviest 1-day June rainstorm on record. According to the document "Historic Rainstorms in California" Dept. of Water Resources, Aug. 1997, the previous maximum June daily rainfall was 5.83" at Forni Ridge on June 18, 1982. San Francisco had its 2nd greatest June 1-day rainfall, going back to 1850, and both the San Francisco and Oakland airport have now had their rainiest Junes on record. Rainfall at Santa Barbara Airport yesterday totaled 1.24 inches, the wettest June day there on record (previous record: 0.51" on June 5, 2009.) The 1.38"of rain so far this June has made it the wettest June in recorded history at Santa Barbara Airport, going back to 1941.

Jeff Masters

Sunny California? (turnuptheheat)
Normally June should be warm and dry. Many areas have had more rainfall in one day than they usually get in the entire month of June. All due to this system: http://www.wunderground.com/data/images/GOES_CA_STORM.jpg
Sunny California?

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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Here's my list:
Georges, Jeanne(As a TS/Cat1),and Earl. Pretty short, isn't it? Would have more if I was older.


Weve been getting a lot of rain in puerto rico two years running, last year wettest on record. I live on the dry side and its been raining for weeks

First hurricane for me was hugo pretty memorable and my most intense
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1281. Levi32
Quoting TomTaylor:
Levi, what are your thoughts on that little blob coming off of Nicaragua with regards to 94l?

Help or hinder? and in what ways?


It's just land-based convection during the heat of the afternoon increasing instability there. Land-based convection is never great for tropical systems as it increases competing upward motion against the ocean.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26701
1280. Grothar
It looks like 94L is in retrograde motion. I do recall seeing this once before. It appeared that the system was falling apart because of a large ULL to its NE, which made it look like it was backing up. But is suddenly formed into a formidable TS. I honestly do not remember which one it was. I am NOT saying this is going to happen, but look at this pitiful little thing.


Link
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
1279. centex
I was suspecting from beginning and thought 93L much better chance because of climatology. Granted western Carib is ok this time of year but not central Carib. We need to focus on GOM startups this time of year or western Carib if conditions warrant. Western Carib is high shear so it's closed in near term. We may get something in a few weeks in GOM, it's heating up rapidly.
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1278. txjac
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Weiner took a pounding worse then 94L.


LOL ...LMBO!
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Quoting presslord:


I was once 'racked'...you've seen the photo...
please no
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Quoting Levi32:
Fresh ASCAT: Still broad and elongated.

Levi, what are your thoughts on that little blob coming off of Nicaragua with regards to 94l?

Help or hinder? and in what ways? I don't believe it will save or revive 94l in any way at all, I'm just wondering what kind of impact thunderstorms coming off land like that would have on our weak, disorganized, elongated surface low 94l
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I just wanted to pop in from lurking to say a couple of things.

First, I'm no weather expert at all. But just from reading this blog, and looking up things I don't know, I'm learning a lot!

Second, y'all crack me up! Even when things get a little hectic here, I usually can catch some humor in someone's posts.

Living on the coast most of my life, I've been through a few hurricanes. My very first was Fredrick. I've been through Opal, Erin, Dennis, Ivan, Katrina. I'm sure I've missed some that aren't as memorable.

As much as we need the rain here, our economy doesn't need the hit a storm would do to us after the oil spill last year.

Thanks, guys and girls! Y'all do a great job of explaining the weather! (even to a novice!)

*now back to lurking*
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94L looks like it's moving NE.
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Quoting pottery:

You are correct. Which would have put me at 7 years old.
You must forgive my memory...
spent too long in the sun today mixing concrete.
Do you realise that concrete is actually 2 FourLetter words joined together?
I'm Wracked!


I've done some foundation work in my time. Not to mention adding a second story to a church in the D.R. where all the "concreto" was mixed in large piles on the floor. It definitely is heavy.
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1271. Grothar
Quoting Levi32:


What models....I see the hyperactive HWRF and that's it.


Hey, I posted the hyperactive HWRF! Here's the conservative GFS. I thought the blog needed an infusion of action.


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Weiner took a pounding worse then 94L.
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Never seen this map before. Thought I'd share it. Kinda cool.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting Inactivity:
Hello everyone!

Is that burst of convection at 15N 84W part of 94L?
looks like it may drift out to see and catch up with 94l if it doesn't die out.

But it began separate from 94l as a typical thunderstorm over Nicaragua
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Quoting Patrap:
Well,,my Wieners are done so Im gonna go eat dinner.

Please don't advertise it on the internet.
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1266. Levi32
Fresh ASCAT: Still broad and elongated.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26701
1265. pottery
Quoting txjac:


how fitting ..pottery working with concrete ...out of clay?

LOL clay I can deal with.
Concrete is so heavy.
Tomorrow I get to spend the day cleaning up out there. It's a mess...
It did not rain today but the ground is soft and has been well torn-up.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24927
1263. Walshy
Quoting FrankZapper:
Didn't it snow someplace on Earth today? Maybe the Andes?


California.
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1262. Grothar
Quoting HCW:
The fat lady is getting warmed up and about to sing for 94L





Hey, in case you didn't know, I am Scandinavian and I don't appreciate you posting a picture of my mother-in-law!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Woohooo....6/10ths of an inch rain measured at the house in about 15min. You could almost hear the ground sucking up the water and the grass growing. But we got to 101 deg at IAH before the rain and cool down.
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1260. Patrap
..true dat press
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
1259. Grothar
Quoting pottery:
Grothar, I am fascinated by your recent coming- out- of- the-
closet as a full-fledged weathernerd!
I had no idea, but am appreciating your inputs.

Have you had some wires recently re-connected or what?

:):))


New meds. LOL You know me, I am quite modest and didn't want to appear like a show-off.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting Hurricanes101:
ok so why are many of the models now developing something? lmao


They have been so out of whack; 94L looks like crap and then they start developing something. When it looked pretty decent the last few days they all dropped it

That's a nice way to put it XD.
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Quoting Patrap:
Well,,my Wieners are done so Im gonna go eat dinner.



so many jokes...so little blog space...
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1256. Levi32
Quoting Hurricanes101:
ok so why are many of the models now developing something? lmao


They have been so out of whack; 94L looks like crap and then they start developing something. When it looked pretty decent the last few days they all dropped it


What models....I see the hyperactive HWRF and that's it.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26701
Quoting pottery:
MONTANA?

anyone wanna discuss AGW?

heheheh
Didn't it snow someplace on Earth today? Maybe the Andes?
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ok so why are many of the models now developing something? lmao


They have been so out of whack; 94L looks like crap and then they start developing something. When it looked pretty decent the last few days they all dropped it
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1252. HCW
The fat lady is getting warmed up and about to sing for 94L



Member Since: August 10, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1409
1251. Patrap
Well,,my Wieners are done so Im gonna go eat dinner.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
Quoting OrchidGrower:
Boy, we are desperate tonight, reminiscing about our First Hurricanes! LOL

Camille is my first hurricane memory, then Carmen, Eloise, Frederic (my absolute worst; was dead center in that one). I got to skip the big 1985 season cuz I had moved to California! Then it was Erin and Opal, Danny for 3 days, then Georges. I got to see the 2005 season up in north Georgia, including the big tornado Katrina rolled through Helen....

I love this blog, usually lurk but am always trying to learn more. But I hope I never face anything bigger than a Cat 2 in the eye, so to speak. Love the rain, hate the wind.

Here's my list:
Georges, Jeanne(As a TS/Cat1),and Earl. Pretty short, isn't it? Would have more if I was older.
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1249. Grothar
Quoting pottery:

Janet in '51 is a 'sort' of memory (I would have been 3, so I kind of doubt I remember that).
But the conversations must have made an impression on me. Also, she was talked about down here for years!
Did not affect Trinidad, but Tobago, Barbados, Grenada, Beyond...

I do not think we have ever had a Hurricane here.
Close passes and landfalls include Alma which did some damage, Ivan that caused all kinds of horrors especially on Tobago (part of the Republic of Trinidad&Tobago), and quite a few feeder bands over the years that brought torrential rains with all that goes with it.

We are too far South at 11N to really be in danger of Wind.
Water is of course a problem.


The first I can actually remember was in Ft. Lauderdale in 1948. I remember going in a boat, and NO, I was not rowing it. Since we lived mostly in New York and Europe I missed a few good ones. I do remember a big one in 1950 which I think may have been King. I remember my older brother teasing me that a big wind was coming and going to take me away. If it is any consolation, he is still a jerk.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
1248. pottery
Quoting presslord:


I was once 'racked'...you've seen the photo...

NO I HAVE NOT! The Hypnotic Treatment dealt with that...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24927
1247. MTWX
Quoting presslord:


we have some folks in Joplin doing cleanup...Did you see the post Nea made a little while ago about the volume of debris?

I did. Amazing how much debris there is, I was in Tuscaloosa this weekend. they are saying about 4 months before all the debris there is cleared!
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Season will be a bust if the first storm didn't develop at June.
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1244. pottery
Grothar, I am fascinated by your recent coming- out- of- the-
closet as a full-fledged weathernerd!
I had no idea, but am appreciating your inputs.

Have you had some wires recently re-connected or what?

:):))
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24927
Quoting stormpetrol:
I still think 94L has a good shot at becoming a TS. The fact that is remaining almost stationary is its saving grace for now. I think tomorrow it has to do or don't though.
I don't think it has a very good chance, but we shall see. Tomorrow is definitely do or die time. If its not looking pretty in the morning then I will have lost all hope in development
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1241. txjac
Quoting pottery:

You are correct. Which would have put me at 7 years old.
You must forgive my memory...
spent too long in the sun today mixing concrete.
Do you realise that concrete is actually 2 FourLetter words joined together?
I'm Wracked!


how fitting ..pottery working with concrete ...out of clay?
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Quoting MTWX:

evening!! Hows things going with the relief efforts??


we have some folks in Joplin doing cleanup...Did you see the post Nea made a little while ago about the volume of debris?
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Quoting Grothar:


Heh..hehheh..heh-(sighs)

Unrealistic...LOL!
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Quoting JLPR2:


If this blob reaches PR whole then we will see too much of it.

*gulp*
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1237. MTWX
Quoting presslord:


I was once 'racked'...you've seen the photo...

evening!! Hows things going with the relief efforts??
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Quoting MTWX:

What AFSC?? I was a MetNav technician, before being seperated, I work on the radars now for the AF as a civilian.


362X3 Missile Comm
Was working in a training development squadron. Great assignment for a pocket rocket guy who would normally be Northern Tier. (Minuteman)
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Boy, we are desperate tonight, reminiscing about our First Hurricanes! LOL

Camille is my first hurricane memory, then Carmen, Eloise, Frederic (my absolute worst; was dead center in that one). I got to skip the big 1985 season cuz I had moved to California! Then it was Erin and Opal, Danny for 3 days, then Georges. I got to see the 2005 season up in north Georgia, including the big tornado Katrina rolled through Helen....

I love this blog, usually lurk but am always trying to learn more. But I hope I never face anything bigger than a Cat 2 in the eye, so to speak. Love the rain, hate the wind.
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Quoting centex:
It's 100+ at home so 92 sounds cold, especially with humidity. Hot day and night here.

Wow...yeah, you are definitely right..I hope we don't break the record of consecutive 100 degree days like summer before last!
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Quoting bwi:
Regarding post 1130.

I am very interested to see a bird with these dimensions:

But the moves have done little to protect the golden eagles, which weigh about 14 pounds and stand up to 409 inches tall.

If my arithmetic is correct, that would be a 34 foot tall bird!


Probably just a "tall tale"!
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Quoting pottery:

You are correct. Which would have put me at 7 years old.
You must forgive my memory...
spent too long in the sun today mixing concrete.
Do you realise that concrete is actually 2 FourLetter words joined together?
I'm Wracked!


I was once 'racked'...you've seen the photo...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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