Little change to 94L; exceptional heat in Texas, record rains in California

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 06, 2011

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There is not much change to report on the large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Western Caribbean, between Jamaica and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The disturbance has brought intermittent heavy rains to Jamaica over the past two days, but nearby islands have thus far escaped the deluge. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1" per hour occurred in ocean regions just east of Jamaica this morning, but the heaviest rains have missed the island so far this morning. Visible satellite loops show no increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, and the storm's low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are poorly defined. The storm's center of low pressure is located about 130 miles south of Grand Cayman Island, in a region with no heavy thunderstorm activity. An intense clump of thunderstorms exists on either side of this low, near Jamaica, and just east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Water vapor satellite loops show the Caribbean has moistened over the past two days, and upper air balloon soundings from the Cayman Islands continue to show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 69% last night.) Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through tonight. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1" per hour (orange colors) were estimated by the F-17 satellite for 94L at 7:03am EDT Jun 6, 2011. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Since 94L is so large and poorly organized, today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 00Z and 06Z model runs were unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. A band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models show 94L pushing slowly northwest at about 5 mph, hitting this shear on Tuesday and Wednesday, preventing any further development. The NOGAPS model predicts that a gap may open up in the shear sufficient for the storm to organize into a tropical depression late this week. Given 94L's current disorganization, I doubt the storm will ever develop. NHC gave 94L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, and I believe these odds should be lower, near 20%. Regardless of development, 94L is capable of bringing very heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti through Wednesday. These rains will probably spread northwards into South Florida and the Bahama Islands by Thursday or Friday.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Exceptional heat in the South
A sizzling June heat wave set record high temperatures across much of Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. The high temperature at the Houston, Texas airport hit 105 degrees, the warmest temperature ever recorded in the month of June (old record: 104 degrees on June 24th and June 26th, 2009.) The earliest Houston ever recorded a temperature of 105 degrees prior to Sunday was July 26th, 1954. Records for Houston date back to 1891. There have been only 15 days in which the temperature has reached or exceeded 105 degrees in Houston:

4 - 1909
1 - 1954
2 - 1962
3 - 1980
5 - 2000

So far this month, new maximum temperature records in Houston have been established on four out of the first five days. Galveston and Houston both crushed their previous record high temperature for the day (June 5th) by a remarkable seven degrees. Residents can expect another day of triple-digit heat today, thanks to the upper level ridge of high pressure parked over the state. Houston will likely break the old record of 98°F for the date.


Figure 3. An intense low pressure system moves inland over California as seen in this satellite photo taken June 4, 2011, at 2pm PDT. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Record rains in California
A large and unusually intense low pressure system moved inland over California over the weekend, bringing large areas of the state rains unheard of in June. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, rainfall at Mining Ridge on the Big Sur coast totaled 8.31" Sunday, which, if verified, would be California's heaviest 1-day June rainstorm on record. According to the document "Historic Rainstorms in California" Dept. of Water Resources, Aug. 1997, the previous maximum June daily rainfall was 5.83" at Forni Ridge on June 18, 1982. San Francisco had its 2nd greatest June 1-day rainfall, going back to 1850, and both the San Francisco and Oakland airport have now had their rainiest Junes on record. Rainfall at Santa Barbara Airport yesterday totaled 1.24 inches, the wettest June day there on record (previous record: 0.51" on June 5, 2009.) The 1.38"of rain so far this June has made it the wettest June in recorded history at Santa Barbara Airport, going back to 1941.

Jeff Masters

Sunny California? (turnuptheheat)
Normally June should be warm and dry. Many areas have had more rainfall in one day than they usually get in the entire month of June. All due to this system: http://www.wunderground.com/data/images/GOES_CA_STORM.jpg
Sunny California?

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1332. Grothar
Quoting bamabeachgirl:


I know! I really don't have a lot to contribute, so I just read and learn!


In case you haven't noticed, my dear, it hasn't stopped anyone on here tonight.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26522
1331. Skyepony (Mod)
This Upper Level Low in the Gulf of Mexico (easily spotted on WV) is drawing some moisture from Caribbean toward FL & helping fire some showers across the N Gulf Coast. Something else interesting is to the SE of ULLs storms tend to pull together.

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1330. xcool
scott39 lmaoooo
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Quoting bamabeachgirl:


I know! I really don't have a lot to contribute, so I just read and learn!


You notice I don't either. I don't let it stop me. ;)
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
1328. scott39
Quoting PcolaDan:
Why does Oscar Mayer come to mind?
because it has a weiner with it!
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Weiner is having a hard time of it...
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Quoting kmanislander:


No worries. It happens to the best of us LOL
kman, if a buoy is showing west winds wouldn't that signify that the coc or llc is to the east of the buoy ?
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1325. Grothar
Quoting emcf30:


Was this the storm you are talking about. Should have been around your 40th B-Day

1926 Miami: The blow that broke the boom

The 1926 storm was described by the U.S. Weather Bureau in Miami as "probably the most destructive hurricane ever to strike the United States." It hit Fort Lauderdale, Dania, Hollywood, Hallandale and Miami. The death toll is estimated to be from 325 to perhaps as many as 800. No storm in previous history had done as much property damage.


No, but my mother and her family were in that one. My grandfather was working for the Young family in Hollywood back then. Hollywood was a new city just being built. I have pictures of some of it. They always talked about it. They had to move to Tampa (Ybor City) after that, because the destruction was terrible. They had just moved to Florida in 1923.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26522
Quoting Levi32:


Oh. Epic fail then lol. I was sure that set of passes was the one due to update.


Ascending is the evening pass it just hasn't been downloaded yet.Time now is close to 2 UTC and the pass posted was just after three UTC so the pass you want won't download for several hours yet.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
Quoting PcolaDan:


WOW talk about coming out of the woodwork. (wait - that was something Pottery was sayin about Grothar coming out of somewhere).

Member Since: August 15, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 2

Welcome back, and don't be such a Chatty Cathy. ;)

and before anyone says anything my sister had one


I know! I really don't have a lot to contribute, so I just read and learn!
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Cybr, I guess is time to look ahead and dump 94L as the first Tropical Cyclone of the Atlantic basin, and see when the real development will occur. The wet MJO will enter the Caribbean by the end of the month and by then we may see development.

That could only mean MORE rain for PR. :(
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Why does Oscar Mayer come to mind?
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
1319. Levi32
Quoting TomTaylor:
ok, that's what I thought, but is here any chance this could also help 94l?

Like if it stuck around and drifted toward the surface low


It would likely dissipate after moving over water.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
So much for the warnings being issued next week
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1317. pottery
Quoting serialteg:


Weve been getting a lot of rain in puerto rico two years running, last year wettest on record. I live on the dry side and its been raining for weeks

First hurricane for me was hugo pretty memorable and my most intense

You going to get more tonight too, from what I see...
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

An Hugo-like storm would spread panic now. I never experienced it, but I know it was horrible. Also, "Hugo" is an ominous name. So are "Ivan", "Igor" and "Dennis". At least they're all retired now. Anyways, I hope this season doesn't affect us at all.


Hugo was very exciting storm power out for weeks i like it because it changes the whole dynamics of life ... But of course its something you dont wish upon anyone its just nature and were right on the alley.

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
94L other than the HWRF has 0 model support.

Development is appearing less likely at this time.


Cybr, I guess is time to look ahead and dump 94L as the first Tropical Cyclone of the Atlantic basin, and see when the real development will occur. The wet MJO will enter the Caribbean by the end of the month and by then we may see development.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14337
1314. scott39
Quoting xcool:
so I guess rip 94L HUH
Say it aint so! It aint over until this fat man sings!
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Quoting bamabeachgirl:
I just wanted to pop in from lurking to say a couple of things.

First, I'm no weather expert at all. But just from reading this blog, and looking up things I don't know, I'm learning a lot!

Second, y'all crack me up! Even when things get a little hectic here, I usually can catch some humor in someone's posts.

Living on the coast most of my life, I've been through a few hurricanes. My very first was Fredrick. I've been through Opal, Erin, Dennis, Ivan, Katrina. I'm sure I've missed some that aren't as memorable.

As much as we need the rain here, our economy doesn't need the hit a storm would do to us after the oil spill last year.

Thanks, guys and girls! Y'all do a great job of explaining the weather! (even to a novice!)

*now back to lurking*


I've been coming here 7 years, it's a fun place if you are able to dodge the potholes. 7 years, whoaa, feeling old now, lol. Good times ahead and the good people sitting in the stands should post more. Maybe we can choke out the bad seeds. Best times here were in alternate blogs that we're more heavily policed by the owners, keeping the riff raff out. Maybe we'll see more of that this year, it works.
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Quoting scott39:
What are you talking about? I thought everyone was having a craving for a weiner!


Everyone on his Twitter account apparently was.
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Got ripped off this afternoon and early evening as the t'storm's were all around but nothing here (Putnam county, north central Florida). I could smell and see the rain! How frustrating it is. Now it's going to be a matter of days or weeks before significant precip arrives. I was watching the fires out in Arizona just now. I guess I shouldn't complain after seeing that horrible situation.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Weiner took a pounding worse then 94L.

saw that. oops. more reason to be normal.
or if you're not, then keep it to yerself.
discretion is the better part of valor.
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1309. scott39
Quoting caneswatch:
I thought i'd never say this, but you guys having fun with the NY Representative's name is just way too funny.
What are you talking about? I thought everyone was having a craving for a weiner!
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Quoting Levi32:


Oh. Epic fail then lol. I was sure that set of passes was the one due to update.


No worries. It happens to the best of us LOL
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
Quoting Levi32:


It's just land-based convection during the heat of the afternoon increasing instability there. Land-based convection is never great for tropical systems as it increases competing upward motion against the ocean.
ok, that's what I thought, but is here any chance this could also help 94l?

Like if it stuck around and drifted toward the surface low
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Quoting pottery:

It was Good. Good crew of 5, placing steel, hand mixing about 8 cu yds and barrowing it about 40 feet.
I supervised mostly, but put my hand in when I saw it was needed.
It was 96F at 2:00 today.


That sun will get you.
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1304. Levi32
Quoting kmanislander:


That cannot be tonight as it is not yet 3 UTC. Isn't that the old pass from 24 hours ago that has not been cleared yet ??


Oh. Epic fail then lol. I was sure that set of passes was the one due to update.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
What do 94L and Anthony Weiner have in common?


They are both DOGS!
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1302. xcool
so I guess rip 94L HUH
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Quoting serialteg:


Weve been getting a lot of rain in Puerto Rico two years running, last year wettest on record. I live on the dry side and its been raining for weeks

First hurricane for me was hugo pretty memorable and my most intense


Keep in mind though, Puerto Rico is tropical island with much of the island having rainforest climate. Some areas on average receive 80 to 100 inches or more a year in the interior. Its not really that surprising to me to hear about intense periods of rain for a long term. In wet climates, there are usually more flooding rain periods than droughts.

Which is why I'm concerned about Florida. Florida's climate ranges from 40 to 45 inches a year in drier areas and 60 to 70 inches a year in the wettest areas, and most of that falls between June and October, making us a wet subtropical climate... However, in the last several years, our wet seasons have gotten lamer, and we've had more drought periods than heavy rain periods, which has me worried about climate change a little. Let's just hope its a climate cycle, and not a sign of the future for Florida.
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Quoting presslord:


I was once 'racked'...you've seen the photo...

for the love of god please, i don't want to have those nightmares again. lol
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Quoting serialteg:


Weve been getting a lot of rain in puerto rico two years running, last year wettest on record. I live on the dry side and its been raining for weeks

First hurricane for me was hugo pretty memorable and my most intense

An Hugo-like storm would spread panic now. I never experienced it, but I know it was horrible. Also, "Hugo" is an ominous name. So are "Ivan", "Igor" and "Dennis". At least they're all retired now. Anyways, I hope this season doesn't affect us at all.
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Quoting Levi32:
Fresh ASCAT: Still broad and elongated.



That cannot be tonight as it is not yet 3 UTC. Isn't that the old pass from 24 hours ago that has not been cleared yet ??
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
1296. Patrap
00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest94 Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)


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1295. emcf30
Quoting Grothar:
It looks like 94L is in retrograde motion. I do recall seeing this once before. It appeared that the system was falling apart because of a large ULL to its NE, which made it look like it was backing up. But is suddenly formed into a formidable TS. I honestly do not remember which one it was. I am NOT saying this is going to happen, but look at this pitiful little thing.


Link


Was this the storm you are talking about. Should have been around your 40th B-Day

1926 Miami: The blow that broke the boom

The 1926 storm was described by the U.S. Weather Bureau in Miami as "probably the most destructive hurricane ever to strike the United States." It hit Fort Lauderdale, Dania, Hollywood, Hallandale and Miami. The death toll is estimated to be from 325 to perhaps as many as 800. No storm in previous history had done as much property damage.
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1294. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Levi32:
Fresh ASCAT: Still broad and elongated.



This ASCAT is nearly 24hrs old.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:
THIS JUST IN:

South Florida has offical been proclaimed the New Sahel.

Expect Sandstorm warnings Soon.


Dies that mean that FL is the "new" dust bowl?
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Quoting bamabeachgirl:
I just wanted to pop in from lurking to say a couple of things.

First, I'm no weather expert at all. But just from reading this blog, and looking up things I don't know, I'm learning a lot!

Second, y'all crack me up! Even when things get a little hectic here, I usually can catch some humor in someone's posts.

Living on the coast most of my life, I've been through a few hurricanes. My very first was Fredrick. I've been through Opal, Erin, Dennis, Ivan, Katrina. I'm sure I've missed some that aren't as memorable.

As much as we need the rain here, our economy doesn't need the hit a storm would do to us after the oil spill last year.

Thanks, guys and girls! Y'all do a great job of explaining the weather! (even to a novice!)

*now back to lurking*


WOW talk about coming out of the woodwork. (wait - that was something Pottery was sayin about Grothar coming out of somewhere).

Member Since: August 15, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 2

Welcome back, and don't be such a Chatty Cathy. ;)

and before anyone says anything my sister had one
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
I thought i'd never say this, but you guys having fun with the NY Representative's name is just way too funny.
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My thinking is that the dry pattern over Florida is breaking down, and the low pressure system in the Caribbean, regardless of whether it develops or not, will bring deep tropical moisture into Florida eventually, that combined with sea breezes, and persistent cold air aloft over Florida will lead to numerous showers and thunderstorms in the long term. Of course, that is certainly not guaranteed, at all. There is a lot of uncertainly, but that's why I think will probably happen.

Of course there's also the possibility this dry weather will just continue and its a sign of yet again declining in Florida rain and thunderstorm activity the last few years.

Lets hope though that soon tropical moisture will dominate the state leading to frequent and widespread rains.
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Quoting Grothar:


Hey, in case you didn't know, I am Scandinavian and I don't appreciate you posting a picture of my mother-in-law!
skeert
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1288. pottery
Quoting CatfishJones:


I can relate. I've done some foundation work in my time. Not to mention adding a second story to a church in the D.R. where all the "concreto" was mixed in large piles on the floor.

It was Good. Good crew of 5, placing steel, hand mixing about 8 cu yds and barrowing it about 40 feet.
I supervised mostly, but put my hand in when I saw it was needed.
It was 96F at 2:00 today.
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94L other than the HWRF has 0 model support.

Development is appearing less likely at this time.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Weiner took a pounding worse then 94L.
He could make a fortune selling "Weiner's Links"
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1285. Grothar
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Weiner took a pounding worse then 94L.


Comment withheld.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26522
Two days of strong thunderstorms around the Houston area and not a drop in Friendswood, Texas.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Here's my list:
Georges, Jeanne(As a TS/Cat1),and Earl. Pretty short, isn't it? Would have more if I was older.


Weve been getting a lot of rain in puerto rico two years running, last year wettest on record. I live on the dry side and its been raining for weeks

First hurricane for me was hugo pretty memorable and my most intense
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.