Caribbean disturbance 94L dumping heavy rains on Jamaica

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:44 PM GMT on June 05, 2011

Share this Blog
8
+

A large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) continues to spread heavy rain to the Central Caribbean near Jamaica. Rain has fallen continuously at Jamaica's Kingston Norman Manley Airport since midnight, with 1.89" having fallen from midnight to noon local time. Sustained winds of 24 mph also affected Kingston between 7am and 8am this morning. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1.4" per hour occurred in ocean regions 100 miles to the southeast of Kingston this morning, and heavy rains of up to 1/2" per hour are probably affecting portions of Jamaica early this afternoon, judging by the recent increase in heavy thunderstorm activity seen on visible satellite loops. This imagery also shows a slow increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, with spiral bands beginning to develop to the southeast of the center. There is a broad, poorly-defined circulation apparent that is not well enough defined to make 94L a tropical depression. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air on the west side of 94L, and this dry air is interfering with the storm's organization. However, upper air balloon soundings from Kingston and the Cayman Islands taken at 8am EDT this morning show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere compared to Saturday (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 49% this morning at Grand Cayman), and 94L appears to be gradually overcoming its dry air issues. Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through Tuesday morning. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1.4" per hour (pink colors) were estimated by the F-15 satellite for 94L at 6:02am EDT Jun 5, 2011.

Since 94L is so large and is battling dry air, it is taking its sweet time to develop, and today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Monday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 06Z model runs are pretty unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. At 2pm EDT on Sunday, NHC gave the disturbance a 40% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. If 94L stays to the south, its chances of development are greater, since a band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The disturbance is expected to meander slowly westward or northward over the next two days, with Jamaica and southeastern Cuba being the primary targets for very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches through Tuesday. Haiti and Central Cuba can expect somewhat lesser rains of 3 - 6 inches. If 94L does develop into a tropical depression and moves northwards over Cuba by Wednesday, I don't see the storm attaining hurricane strength, due to the high wind shear. The primary threat from 94L will be very heavy rains, capable of causing life-threatening flash flooding.


Figure 2. Afternoon satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance 94L.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1947 - 1897

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39Blog Index

1947. HurricaneDean07
6:07 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
So 50%, and NHC metioning a possible TD by tonight, good, Florida needs it.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
1946. ElConando
3:17 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
Quoting Levi32:


I believe there will be at least some rain in store for Florida, Aqua.


That would extremely helpful especially in Central and Northern Florida. Drought could get to close to extreme levels in a few weeks if not.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3774
1945. EYEStoSEA
2:50 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
Quoting xcool:
RIP 94L LOL LMAO JOKES



LOl...xcool, ya trying to add to the tension ? It was 103 on my back deck yesterday...and it's in the shady section :o
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1496
1944. wunderkidcayman
2:49 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
we are still reporting NE winds here
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12324
1943. xcool
2:48 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
new blogggggggg
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1942. Vincent4989
2:47 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
New blog alert!
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
1941. goavs4
2:47 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
New Blog!
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 72
1940. 19N81W
2:46 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
wow I though we would wake up to something much different...
Member Since: August 24, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 436
1939. CyclonicVoyage
2:46 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
Quoting Levi32:
I'm off to work. Later all.


Adios Levi..
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
1938. sammywammybamy
2:46 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
Levi,

Station 42057
NDBC
Location: 17.003N 81.501WConditions as of:
Mon, 6 Jun 2011 13:50:00 UTC

Winds: SW (220) at 3.9 kt gusting to 3.9 kt
Significant Wave Height: 3.3 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Mean Wave Direction: NE (44)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.76 in
Air Temperature: 81.9 F
Dew Point: 77.5 F
Water Temperature: 82.9
Member Since: June 17, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 5010
1937. Levi32
2:45 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
I'm off to work. Later all.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26681
1936. Levi32
2:44 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
Quoting cchsweatherman:


If the center was located at your analyzed position, then the winds being reported directly south of Grand Cayman out to sea would be reporting a pretty much due west to just slight south of due west wind, not a solid southwesterly wind.


These are the coordinates of that buoy, CCHS. 17N, 81.5W. SW wind makes sense.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26681
1935. xcool
2:43 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
RIP 94L LOL LMAO JOKES
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1933. islander101010
2:41 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
Quoting reedzone:


Yeah, just like when you predicted bonnie to be a hurricane after one sprout of convection last year. Enough of this now. 94L has a decent shot at TD status in the next few days.
moving into a developmental area for systems in june too going to take alot of windshear to kill this system.
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4863
1932. wunderkidcayman
2:41 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
Quoting reedzone:


Yeah, just like when you predicted bonnie to be a hurricane after one sprout of convection last year. Enough of this now. 94L has a decent shot at TD status in the next few days.

hey reed ignore him he's trying to get to you there is a button that you can use to take care of that problem it called the Ignore User button all you need to do is push it
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12324
1931. Vincent4989
2:41 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
Quoting Inactivity:
Lack of Poll questions today...LOL

Here is a simple one.

Poll- How much time does 94L have to organize?

A. A little more time (24 hours)

B. A little more time (36 Hours)

C. Quite a bit of time (48 Hours)

D. A lot of time (50-75 hours)

E. Plenty of time (+75 hours)

F. Unspeakablely long (+120 hours)

I would go with C, but D isn't out of the question.
C.
Member Since: November 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
1930. sammywammybamy
2:41 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


It's looking better and better for the Peninsula everyday, crossing fingers.


Yes...

000
FXUS62 KMFL 061403 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1000 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2011



WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE THIS FAR OUT INTO EXTENDED
FORECAST...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INCREASING DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE CARIBBEAN SLOWLY
DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWEST. DUE TO THIS LOW CONFIDENCE...WILL SLIGHTLY
INCREASE RAINFALL COVERAGE PROBABILITIES BACK TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

Member Since: June 17, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 5010
1929. Jax82
2:41 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
Hey guys, i came across this chart the other day, anyone seen something like this?

Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261
1928. CyclonicVoyage
2:41 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
Quoting reedzone:
The day of RIPping 94L


Figures it's happens to be the best day yet/ever for it to become a TD, lol.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
1927. reedzone
2:41 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
I know how to read shear maps, it's what I base my opinions on. Right now shear is still marginally favorable and anything can happen at that stage, we've seen Alberto (2006) overcome shear for 24 hours, almost became a Hurricane. Not saying 94L is hurricane bound, but it has a medium chance (decent shot) at becoming a Tropical Depression over the next 2-3 days before shear really cranks up.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7416
1926. weathermanwannabe
2:40 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
Quoting aquak9:
thanks, wannabe. I felt it was an immature response.

Sorry Reed but I gotta call it as I see it.
Quoting aquak9:
thanks, wannabe. I felt it was an immature response.

Sorry Reed but I gotta call it as I see it.


Hopefully, Dr. M will post soon as I want to see what "He" is thinking........ :)
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9318
1925. Inactivity
2:40 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
Lack of Poll questions today...LOL

Here is a simple one.

Poll- How much time does 94L have to organize?

A. A little more time (24 hours)

B. A little more time (36 Hours)

C. Quite a bit of time (48 Hours)

D. A lot of time (50-75 hours)

E. Plenty of time (+75 hours)

F. Unspeakablely long (+120 hours)

I would go with C, but D isn't out of the question.
Member Since: June 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 264
1924. aquak9
2:39 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
thanks, wannabe. I felt it was an immature response.

Sorry Reed but I gotta call it as I see it.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 171 Comments: 26252
1923. CaicosRetiredSailor
2:38 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
1671. pottery 7:51 AM EDT on June 06, 2011
There is a pair of Toucans making loud "cheeping" noises in the top of a tree outside.
I'm going to join them.


...I am picturing Pottery still up in the tree cheeping,
...when the cement delivery trucks arrive.
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6064
1922. reedzone
2:38 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
The day of RIPping 94L
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7416
1920. cchsweatherman
2:38 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
Quoting Levi32:


That buoy in the SE corner of the image seems to support the visible satellite center fix, and the northeast wind way off to the northwest could support any position in that general area. That doesn't seem too conclusive.


If the center was located at your analyzed position, then the winds being reported directly south of Grand Cayman out to sea would be reporting a pretty much due west to just slight south of due west wind, not a solid southwesterly wind.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
1918. CyclonicVoyage
2:37 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
Quoting aquak9:
ok, I'm willing to accept the demise of 94L.

But will there be any remnants to bring rain to the CONUS?


It's looking better and better for the Peninsula everyday, crossing fingers.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
1917. weathermanwannabe
2:36 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
Quoting reedzone:


Once again Stormtop, SHUT IT!


It may or may not be Stormtop but I happen to agree with him/her.........Just expressing an opinion...No need to jump on them like that.........
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9318
1916. wunderkidcayman
2:36 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
the heaver convection on the west side is pushing east with a slight southerly movement to it I thing it wants to catch up with the other bit of heaver convection south of Jamaica when this happen one of two thing may very well happen #1 the current LLC get draged to the east toward the ball of convection or #2 a new much stronger LLC develops
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12324
1915. Levi32
2:35 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
Quoting aquak9:
ok, I'm willing to accept the demise of 94L.

But will there be any remnants to bring rain to the CONUS?


I believe there will be at least some rain in store for Florida, Aqua.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26681
1914. pressureman
2:35 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
aquak9 that is a good possibility...much needed rain could move into the the gulf coast and fla...
Member Since: May 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 81
1913. Levi32
2:35 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
Quoting cchsweatherman:






That buoy in the SE corner of the image seems to support the visible satellite center fix, and the northeast wind way off to the northwest could support any position in that general area. That doesn't seem too conclusive.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26681
1912. 7544
2:35 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Dyanmic Models:



hmm looks like the next few runs models are shifting more to the east looks a t the high in the gom
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6871
1911. reedzone
2:35 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
Quoting pressureman:
Reed what is wrong with you...cant you see the shear man thats going to rock and roll 94L..Reed i thought you learned somethig but eveidently you have learned nothing...94L is history ...


Yeah, just like when you predicted bonnie to be a hurricane after one sprout of convection last year. Enough of this now. 94L has a decent shot at TD status in the next few days.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7416
1910. aquak9
2:34 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
yeah Reed, that was really outta character for you
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 171 Comments: 26252
1909. aquak9
2:33 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
ok, I'm willing to accept the demise of 94L.

But will there be any remnants to bring rain to the CONUS?
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 171 Comments: 26252
1907. cchsweatherman
2:31 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
Quoting Levi32:


Scattered surface obs do not give direct fixes. Visible satellite of an exposed center does. Which obs in particular do you think disagree with that position?




If the center was located at your analyzed position, then the winds being reported directly south of Grand Cayman out to sea would be reporting a pretty much due west to just slight south of due west wind, not a solid southwesterly wind.

Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
1906. wxwonder1
2:31 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

its 2011 not 2010 you need to buy a ne calander


That would actually make it the 2012 Hurricane Season lol.
Member Since: September 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 103
1904. sammywammybamy
2:29 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
Dyanmic Models:

Member Since: June 17, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 5010
1903. pressureman
2:28 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
94 L is running out of time before the strong shear sets back in..94L has no chance and i think that is what the NHC is thinking.. 94 L HAS USED UP HIS 9 LIVES...We wont be talking about 94L tomorrow the strong shear will rip it apart...So long live 94L
Member Since: May 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 81
1902. jeffs713
2:27 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
Quoting Levi32:
Current position based on high-resolution visible:



Loop
Exactly. I see the same thing, Levi... slight spin nearly due W of Jamaica, exposed on the eastern side, and a generally unconvincing level of organization.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5890
1901. Levi32
2:27 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
No real structure to the system yet:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26681
1900. Levi32
2:25 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Surface observations support a position a little to the north and west than your analyzed position.


Scattered surface obs do not give direct fixes. Visible satellite of an exposed center does. Which obs in particular do you think disagree with that position?
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26681
1899. Levi32
2:24 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
Cumulus cloud streets becoming deeper and more convective around the Cayman Islands. Instability is increasing.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26681
1898. cchsweatherman
2:23 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
Quoting Levi32:
Current position based on high-resolution visible:



Loop


Surface observations support a position a little to the west than your analyzed position.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
1897. Neapolitan
2:22 PM GMT on June 06, 2011
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

its 2011 not 2010 you need to buy a ne calander

What's a "ne calander"? ;-)

Comment date fixed...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13597

Viewing: 1947 - 1897

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
47 °F
Overcast