Caribbean disturbance 94L dumping heavy rains on Jamaica

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:44 PM GMT on June 05, 2011

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A large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) continues to spread heavy rain to the Central Caribbean near Jamaica. Rain has fallen continuously at Jamaica's Kingston Norman Manley Airport since midnight, with 1.89" having fallen from midnight to noon local time. Sustained winds of 24 mph also affected Kingston between 7am and 8am this morning. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1.4" per hour occurred in ocean regions 100 miles to the southeast of Kingston this morning, and heavy rains of up to 1/2" per hour are probably affecting portions of Jamaica early this afternoon, judging by the recent increase in heavy thunderstorm activity seen on visible satellite loops. This imagery also shows a slow increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, with spiral bands beginning to develop to the southeast of the center. There is a broad, poorly-defined circulation apparent that is not well enough defined to make 94L a tropical depression. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air on the west side of 94L, and this dry air is interfering with the storm's organization. However, upper air balloon soundings from Kingston and the Cayman Islands taken at 8am EDT this morning show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere compared to Saturday (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 49% this morning at Grand Cayman), and 94L appears to be gradually overcoming its dry air issues. Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through Tuesday morning. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1.4" per hour (pink colors) were estimated by the F-15 satellite for 94L at 6:02am EDT Jun 5, 2011.

Since 94L is so large and is battling dry air, it is taking its sweet time to develop, and today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Monday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 06Z model runs are pretty unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. At 2pm EDT on Sunday, NHC gave the disturbance a 40% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. If 94L stays to the south, its chances of development are greater, since a band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The disturbance is expected to meander slowly westward or northward over the next two days, with Jamaica and southeastern Cuba being the primary targets for very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches through Tuesday. Haiti and Central Cuba can expect somewhat lesser rains of 3 - 6 inches. If 94L does develop into a tropical depression and moves northwards over Cuba by Wednesday, I don't see the storm attaining hurricane strength, due to the high wind shear. The primary threat from 94L will be very heavy rains, capable of causing life-threatening flash flooding.


Figure 2. Afternoon satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance 94L.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TexasGulf:
A nice storm cell moved through Kingwood, Texas (NE of Houston) about 7:00pm. We just got power restored about 10:00pm.

There was some marble sized hail and about 1" of welcome rain in the span of 1/2 an hour. The wind was outrageous, though. Wind gusts at a neighborhood level were every bit as high as those I saw in the eye-wall of Hurricane Ike. My rough guesstimate would be winds in the 70-80 mph range, pretty much constant for about 15-minutes. Several trees went down in the neighborhood, trash cans blowing down the street... the usual stuff. It was quite a powerful little storm cell. At one point, from the swirling and change in wind direction, I could swear it was trying to produce a vortex.

Anyway, that was impressive for such a small, isolated storm cell.


By the time it hit Spring, it had died down a little. Lots of straight line gusts (some branches down, etc) and rain for about 30 minutes which I am very grateful for. We did not lose power though we did earlier in the day when the storms were well away from us.
I would estimate 1/4 inch of rain. After yesterdays 105 degree high it was a welcome relief.
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1646. IKE

Quoting DestinJeff:
Hey Ike, I think we got a little treat the other night with that Thing that developed up near you and drove southwest to fwb/destin...

all kinds of boats stuck out in Santa Rosa sound for Billy Bowlegs Festival. that storm had the most lightning I have ever seen.
The worst of it went south of me. Got .12 inches of rain...total for the weekend.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1645. ncstorm
Good Morning..

The latest GFS run has been consistent on a storm off the SE Atlantic coast for a while now..around the 16th..
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1644. IKE

Quoting scott39:
Is the wind shear forecasted to die down N of 94L?
I don't think so.


Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Leaving it behind. Things certainly aren't getting better for 94L.
I think the odds of this becoming a TS are low.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting Tazmanian:
hmmmm i think 91E has lost its ch of be coming a TD the nhc sould have done it sat

Dude, it's restoring it's convecton.
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Quoting IKE:
High seems to be moving west while 94L is moving NW....




Leaving it behind. Things certainly aren't getting better for 94L.
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
1639. scott39
Quoting IKE:
High seems to be moving west while 94L is moving NW....


Is the wind shear forecasted to die down N of 94L?
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1638. pottery
Quoting Hurrykane:


19.802 N 84.857 W (19°48'6" N 84°51'24" W)

Thanks.
Interesting drop there...
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hmmmm i think 91E has lost its ch of be coming a TD the nhc sould have done it sat
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1636. IKE
High seems to be moving west while 94L is moving NW....


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1635. emcf30
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Quoting Bitmap7:
Florida:

Somewhere in the sahara:

Oh my gosh!In Poland we also have drought,yesterday they was 120 forest fires,and I don't see the end of this in next days...
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Quoting pottery:

Good!
And at about 8;30 we will expect eggs, pancakes, sausages, bacon and stuff because we have to mix 10 cu.yds of concrete this morning.
So get out of that dress and get moving!



Morning everyone... not sure I was ready for that image....
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1631. pottery
What is the Lat-Lon of that buoy, Hurrycane?
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1630. emcf30
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1626. pottery
Quoting presslord:


On it!

Good!
And at about 8;30 we will expect eggs, pancakes, sausages, bacon and stuff because we have to mix 10 cu.yds of concrete this morning.
So get out of that dress and get moving!
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1625. scott39
Dry air is not a problem for 94L anymore. The circulation is still broad and elongated. Lets hope some rain makes it to Florida or the Gulf Coast!
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Quoting pottery:

Bring Coffee.


On it!
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1623. pottery
Quoting presslord:
What are my instructions for the day?!

Bring Coffee.
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What are my instructions for the day?!
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Conditions at 42057 as of
(5:50 am EST)
1050 GMT on 06/06/2011:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.
5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): WSW ( 240 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 5.8 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 7.8 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 4.3 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 5.9 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): NE ( 43 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.71 in
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 80.6 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.6 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 79.7 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 88.7 °
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
1620. Bitmap7
Florida:

Somewhere in the sahara:
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1619. pottery
Quoting Seflhurricane:
we need the rain in florida or the areas around the gulf coast , as long as it stays a TD or a tropical storm or a low pressure i dont care we need rain real bad

Yeah! I realise you have had a really bad dry.
I hope you get some good rains soon.
Heard from my sister who is near Tuscon Arizona this morning, it's bad there too, and burning.
Not good at all....
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1618. IKE

Quoting PolishHurrMaster:

Hi Ike!
Hey.....


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Good morning.

Puerto Rico is under a flash flood watch until Tuesday because of the long tail from 94L that is moving north.

About 94L, I am on the 40% at 8 AM TWO camp too.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
Quoting pottery:
Good Morning all.
A Glorious One, here.

I see that "Annoying Arlene" (just to give it a name) is still causing Confusion.

I think that DMin and Shear and everything else later today might just be too much for her. It was fun, but Good Riddance!
we need the rain in florida or the areas around the gulf coast , as long as it stays a TD or a tropical storm or a low pressure i dont care we need rain real bad
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3029
Quoting IKE:
Good morning.

I'll go with 40% on 94L. Time is running out on it...soon.

Hi Ike!
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next TWO will be out within the hour , i am intrested to see what the NHC says
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3029
1613. pottery
Good Morning all.
A Glorious One, here.

I see that "Annoying Arlene" (just to give it a name) is still causing Confusion.

I think that DMin and Shear and everything else later today might just be too much for her. It was fun, but Good Riddance!
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1612. emcf30
Good morning all.
I see that 94L is holding on as I and others anticipated and the models tracks are once again starting to, as aquak calls it looks like a spider. All the local mets are now calling attention to this feature with a increase of rain chance in CFL for this weekend. One could only hope. Watch out today for tornadoes in Central/Eastern Montana and Eastern Wisconsin/North-central Michigan. Conditions will be ripe for large tornadoes this afternoon and evening.
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either a midlevel or a LLC is forming to the south of the tip of western jamaica and the old LLC the one the NHC is analyzing is headed west towards the convection in the NW carribean
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3029
Good morniing everyone from St. Andrew, Jamaica. I am not sure what is happening on the blog but you probably know it rained all night again last night.

It is now raining, very bleak and heavily overcast where I am and I am sure it is worse in parishes such as St. Thomas and Portland. This trend could cause serious damages to some parishes especially loss to farmers and the economy. So far I have received only one unconfirmed report of a fisherman drowning at sea yesterday. We need the water but not the flooding which is now likely.

See you later.
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1609. aquak9
Good beautiful morning, Saint my friend.

I would not mind rain here, winds below forty and lotsa rain. I think that's all we want.

Crown does excellent meteorological synopsis, but his hopefulness tends to be underlying in his opinions.

Enjoying the lower gas prices- I too, do not wanna see anything bigger than a TD enter the Gulf.
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1608. IKE
Good morning.

I'll go with 40% on 94L. Time is running out on it...soon.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting mikeylikesyouall:
dry air is no longer a issue for invest 94, just the wind shear to the nw problematic for invest 94, convection seems to be on the up end of the cycle this early morning, sst's to the nw have a pocket 2 full degrees warmer, this might be the little engine that could get the name arlene.
Rob from Crown Weather seems to think it stands a good chance of that happening.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Ahh Crown Weather.Remember last year Ike, lol? good morning aquak.Looks like the models are really backing off on this system.Well to quote Ike "0-0-0."unlike a lot of kiddies out for school on the blog i personally hope it stays that way.Have a bad feeling it want though.i fear a neutralseason more than a la Nina just my take anyway have a great day and God Bless.
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dry air is no longer a issue for invest 94, just the wind shear to the nw problematic for invest 94, convection seems to be on the up end of the cycle this early morning, sst's to the nw have a pocket 2 full degrees warmer, this might be the little engine that could get the name arlene.
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1604. aquak9
Time's gonna run out soon on alignment.
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Good morning everyone. Here is an excerpt from Crown Weather's update this morning.

A broad area of low pressure, labeled Invest 94-L, was located about 175 miles to the south of Grand Cayman. The heaviest convection associated with 94-L was separated both to the west and to the east from the center of circulation which is the low pressure system. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for development of this system from today through about Tuesday or Wednesday. After that, environmental conditions will become unfavorable and whatever becomes of Invest 94-L will become highly sheared.

Given the better organized structure that is clearly visible on satellite imagery, the deep thunderstorm activity that is occurring and the fact that it is currently under quite favorable environmental conditions, I do think Invest 94-L will go ahead and try to develop into a tropical depression during the day today or tonight and then very possibly tropical storm Arlene as we get into Tuesday or Wednesday. A reconnaissance flight is scheduled to investigate 94-L this afternoon to determine whether it is indeed a tropical depression.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:
94l is like 91l earlier this year-it has last chance.This last chance is today so it would be interesting.I bet the chance for TD1 is 60%


94L has much more of a chance than 91L ever did. Still not entirely convinced though, I would say we'll get another 40%.
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
94l is like 91l earlier this year-it has last chance.This last chance is today so it would be interesting.I bet the chance for TD1 is 60%
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1600. aquak9
Good morning, good day, where ever you may be.

I see Ike has a high temp of 102º today, so ya'll go easy on him.
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94l is like 91l earlier this year-it has last chance.This last chance is today so it would be interesting.I bet the chance for TD1 is 60%
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94L looks really good, I think it took some energy and organization from 91E
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1597. Walshy
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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