Caribbean disturbance 94L dumping heavy rains on Jamaica

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:44 PM GMT on June 05, 2011

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A large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) continues to spread heavy rain to the Central Caribbean near Jamaica. Rain has fallen continuously at Jamaica's Kingston Norman Manley Airport since midnight, with 1.89" having fallen from midnight to noon local time. Sustained winds of 24 mph also affected Kingston between 7am and 8am this morning. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1.4" per hour occurred in ocean regions 100 miles to the southeast of Kingston this morning, and heavy rains of up to 1/2" per hour are probably affecting portions of Jamaica early this afternoon, judging by the recent increase in heavy thunderstorm activity seen on visible satellite loops. This imagery also shows a slow increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, with spiral bands beginning to develop to the southeast of the center. There is a broad, poorly-defined circulation apparent that is not well enough defined to make 94L a tropical depression. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air on the west side of 94L, and this dry air is interfering with the storm's organization. However, upper air balloon soundings from Kingston and the Cayman Islands taken at 8am EDT this morning show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere compared to Saturday (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 49% this morning at Grand Cayman), and 94L appears to be gradually overcoming its dry air issues. Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through Tuesday morning. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1.4" per hour (pink colors) were estimated by the F-15 satellite for 94L at 6:02am EDT Jun 5, 2011.

Since 94L is so large and is battling dry air, it is taking its sweet time to develop, and today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Monday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 06Z model runs are pretty unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. At 2pm EDT on Sunday, NHC gave the disturbance a 40% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. If 94L stays to the south, its chances of development are greater, since a band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The disturbance is expected to meander slowly westward or northward over the next two days, with Jamaica and southeastern Cuba being the primary targets for very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches through Tuesday. Haiti and Central Cuba can expect somewhat lesser rains of 3 - 6 inches. If 94L does develop into a tropical depression and moves northwards over Cuba by Wednesday, I don't see the storm attaining hurricane strength, due to the high wind shear. The primary threat from 94L will be very heavy rains, capable of causing life-threatening flash flooding.


Figure 2. Afternoon satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance 94L.

Jeff Masters

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When you will have finished with the heavy rains in Jamaica, please send Very very heavy in the northern leewards islands! We really need it....
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1796. hydrus
Quoting sammywammybamy:


I hope those clouds produce some rain.
I doubt it..Thats just cirrus, and it should reduce daytime heating instability for today..jmo
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So no recon? Dang it
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Quoting Hugo7:
I caught a video of a wall cloud dropping from the storm over stuttgart last night. very crappy quality or I would have posted it..

I was on the phone listening to the hail. Couldn't find a decent satellite picture of it though. Too bad your photo didn't come out! Ike too funny. rofl
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1793. IKE

Quoting Chicklit:
KmanIslander just documented that 94L is indeed a mess. Still it has two more days to sit there and get something together before meeting the wrecking ball.
""I'm waiting!"""


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Some banding starting to develop north of the low. Broad, but is organizing well this morning. The two pieces are coming together.

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1790. hydrus
Quoting IKE:
5 day QPF....


It is my belief that the area of heavy rain there will shift westward..Just for kicks, here is the 30 day water temp forecast...
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1789. Hugo7
I caught a video of a wall cloud dropping from the storm over stuttgart last night. very crappy quality or I would have posted it..
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KmanIslander just documented that 94L is indeed a mess. Still it has two more days to sit there and get something together before meeting the wrecking ball.
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Quoting stormpetrol:


LMAO!!!
Looks like a big rain day for us
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
Quoting Grothar:


That happens in bars too, around 2:00 AM.


LMAO!!!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
1784. barbamz
Quoting Grothar:
Well, if you don't mind. I would like to give you a video I did many years on the weather. I hope you like it. I wish it had subtitle. If you like it, I can do a regular one on local weather here. Mind you I was just a kid.





LOL!! Grothar, bist Du das gewesen, dieser Bart?? Goldig. And has it been a hurricane, which struck Germany in the forecast (Edit: I mean the cloud show)?
Greetings from thunderstormy Germany, with bigggg amounts of rain in some regions, but not in our town Mainz. :(
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1782. IKE

Quoting sammywammybamy:


No!!!! Shift that west.. Arghhhhh!!!!!!!

-20.90 inches this Year!
Tampa gets a tenth of an inch.....

Key West.....
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
GLOBAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE BECOMING CONSISTENT WITH A DEEPENING
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WITH THIS ALIGNMENT ALOFT...MID
AND UPPER LEVEL ASCENT WILL EVOLVE WITH AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE (PWAT FROM 1.5
INCHES TO 2.0 INCHES)ALONG WITH NO INHIBITION. GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT
SHEAR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...IT APPEARS ONLY A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH FEATURE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OUT OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS CUBA LATE THIS WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE...PLENTY OF INGREDIENTS FOR
PRECIPITATION SEEM TO BE COMING INTO PLACE BEGINNING THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY...AND CONTINUING INTO THIS WEEKEND. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE
NUDGED UP POPS TO 40 PERCENT BEGINNING FRIDAY AND FURTHER
ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY. DUE TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND ABOVE
AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES...WILL INTRODUCE TEMPERATURE RANGES OF 85 TO 90
AND 75 TO 80 DEGREES.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
I'm putting up my shower curtains now! I'm scured
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1779. IKE
5 day QPF....


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1777. Grothar
Quoting Hurrykane:


Hey Grothar...thanks for your contributions here.


You are welcome. I shall try harder.
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1776. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:


You mean like Lindsey Lohan?
yes..And there are even better examples than her.
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Quoting hydrus:
It is my opinion that a high number of people do a great job forecasting storms on this blog. Especially when atmospheric conditions are not tremendously complex.
Yep. LOTS of good forecasting and analysis goes on here. Of course, half the battle is muddling through all the junk that gets posted that is far from decent forecasting. (IMO, the "morning crew" has some excellent analysis... it goes downhill around 11am CST)
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


Praying for the western tracks. Hate to have that eastern fetch that will be present over the Bahama's and open ocean.
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SammyWB,

When they finished in your garden, the racoons paid a visit to mine and tore up everything. They also destroyed a bluebird nest and got to the eggs even though I have a predator guard on the bluebird house.

I learned a lesson about the bluebird house. The birds did not use their first nest. I've read that bluebirds do this often....build decoy nests. They returned recently and built a second nest on top of the first one which raised the level of the nest, putting it within reach of a predator like a racoon in spite of the guard. I should have removed the first nest. I cleaned out the box so maybe they will try again.

About racoons and rabies........I have read that racoons are carriers of rabies. My neighbors humanely trap and release them elsewhere.

Hope you can restore your garden.

We need rain so badly here along the northern Gulf Coast. May 94L bring us some. I appreciate all the good info so many of you take the time to post

Wishing everyone and everyone's gardens a good week.

Steel

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1770. Grothar
Well, if you don't mind. I would like to give you a video I did many years on the weather. I hope you like it. I wish it had subtitle. If you like it, I can do a regular one on local weather here. Mind you I was just a kid.



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Quoting sammywammybamy:




Do you guys see the center also??
I wouldn't call that a center, per se. Its very elongated and diffuse, nothing like a solid & tight LLC.
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1768. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:


You know that I always answer you when you are on and I have always given recognition to your level of expertise, no matter how limited it may be.
It is my opinion that a high number of people do a great job forecasting storms on this blog. Especially when atmospheric conditions are not tremendously complex.
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1765. IKE

Quoting aquak9:
Yes, Ike...it's been a Recoon Recall.
lol
Quoting Grothar:


That happens in bars too, around 2:00 AM.
lol
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Good morning all

A few quick posts.

The surface low of 94L seems to have passed between us and the buoy 42057 between midnight and this morning as that buoy had West winds from about that time and we have NE to ENE winds. Pressure here was down to 1007 mbs late last night and is now 1008 and rising.

The blow up near Jamaica is still interesting though as that is where the 500 mb vorticity is now to be found. The 700 and 850 mb vort continues Westward with the surface feature. It remains to be seen if a new low develops South of Jamaica or not but 94L is one disorganized system.

Here is the wind data from the buoy

06 06 5:50 am WSW 5.8 7.8 4.3 8 5.9 NE 29.71 +0.00 80.6 82.6 79.7 - - -
06 06 4:50 am WSW 5.8 9.7 3.9 7 5.9 NE 29.72 -0.01 81.0 82.8 78.8 - - -
06 06 3:50 am S 3.9 5.8 4.3 7 5.9 NE 29.72 -0.02 81.1 82.8 79.3 - - -
06 06 2:50 am W 1.9 3.9 3.9 7 5.9 NE 29.72 - 81.1 82.8 77.5 - - -
06 06 1:50 am WNW 1.9 3.9 4.3 8 6.0 NNE 29.72 - 81.0 82.9 78.6 - - -
06 06 12:50 am W 3.9 5.8 3.9 7 5.7 NE 29.74 -0.05 80.8 82.9 79.5 - - -
06 05 11:50 pm SW 1.9 3.9 3.6 7 5.7 NE 29.77 +0.00 80.1 82.8 78.4 - - -
06 05 10:50 pm NNE 9.7 17.5 4.3 7 5.8 NE 29.79 - 79.3 82.8 77.4 - - -
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
1763. Grothar
Quoting hydrus:
Notoriety and fame are commonly confused with each other. :)


You mean like Lindsey Lohan?
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1761. Grothar
Quoting scott39:
I hear ya...Nobody recognizes my level of expertise either!


You know that I always answer you when you are on and I have always given recognition to your level of expertise, no matter how limited it may be.
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1757. Grothar
Quoting BobinTampa:


Levi and Drak were on?!? What did they say???


;)


Not much, but it was awsome. :P
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who said they expected landfall at wk ago in the big bend area this coming wkend? that character could be the champ.
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1755. scott39
Quoting Hurrykane:


I does.
Well theres one... that doesnt know any better!
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hey guys I think that kinda movement with the current low could happen moves back east

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9557
1753. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Yes.


Weel, you are a man of few words. Too bad you can't keep it that way. :P
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1751. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:


Yo. hydrus. I got a question for you. How come I have nailed this system for days. I have located the center when no one else could. I predicted the movement 3 days ago when everyone said I was wrong. I even gave the hours it would flare-up after everyone said it was dead. And I get ignored. Yet Levi and Drak come on and say "Hello" and eveyone says. Oh, that is "awsome", wonderful great analysis. Am I too old to be on here?????
Notoriety and fame are commonly confused with each other. :)
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Quoting Chicklit:
Grothar is in rare form this morning.
I thought that was more "normal" for him...
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Updated SST Anomalies... slight cooling around Cape Verde Islands.






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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.