Caribbean disturbance 94L dumping heavy rains on Jamaica

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:44 PM GMT on June 05, 2011

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A large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) continues to spread heavy rain to the Central Caribbean near Jamaica. Rain has fallen continuously at Jamaica's Kingston Norman Manley Airport since midnight, with 1.89" having fallen from midnight to noon local time. Sustained winds of 24 mph also affected Kingston between 7am and 8am this morning. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1.4" per hour occurred in ocean regions 100 miles to the southeast of Kingston this morning, and heavy rains of up to 1/2" per hour are probably affecting portions of Jamaica early this afternoon, judging by the recent increase in heavy thunderstorm activity seen on visible satellite loops. This imagery also shows a slow increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, with spiral bands beginning to develop to the southeast of the center. There is a broad, poorly-defined circulation apparent that is not well enough defined to make 94L a tropical depression. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air on the west side of 94L, and this dry air is interfering with the storm's organization. However, upper air balloon soundings from Kingston and the Cayman Islands taken at 8am EDT this morning show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere compared to Saturday (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 49% this morning at Grand Cayman), and 94L appears to be gradually overcoming its dry air issues. Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through Tuesday morning. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1.4" per hour (pink colors) were estimated by the F-15 satellite for 94L at 6:02am EDT Jun 5, 2011.

Since 94L is so large and is battling dry air, it is taking its sweet time to develop, and today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Monday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 06Z model runs are pretty unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. At 2pm EDT on Sunday, NHC gave the disturbance a 40% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. If 94L stays to the south, its chances of development are greater, since a band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The disturbance is expected to meander slowly westward or northward over the next two days, with Jamaica and southeastern Cuba being the primary targets for very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches through Tuesday. Haiti and Central Cuba can expect somewhat lesser rains of 3 - 6 inches. If 94L does develop into a tropical depression and moves northwards over Cuba by Wednesday, I don't see the storm attaining hurricane strength, due to the high wind shear. The primary threat from 94L will be very heavy rains, capable of causing life-threatening flash flooding.


Figure 2. Afternoon satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance 94L.

Jeff Masters

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TAFB 72 hour surface forecast.... not much movement.


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Quoting Seflhurricane:
miami does it look like 94L will get bumped up to red 50% at 8PM , its starting to look rather good


I could see 50% happening at 8pm, though I should point out that 50% is still orange.
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
miami does it look like 94L will get bumped up to red 50% at 8PM , its starting to look rather good
Red is 60%. 50% is plausible though should the convection not wane during the diurnal minimum.
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If it holds its own by tomorrow, i think we will have a TD designated when HH fly in. What is the wind shear like in the GOMEX over the next 3-5 days??
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Wind shear is going down, it has an anti-cyclone. The vorticity is amazing, it extends perfectly vertically stacked all the way to 500mb.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
190. IKE

Quoting gulfbreeze:
We all need rain but no Hurricane!!
ECMWF shows it making it into the SE GOM but in a weakening state...for now.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
12z ECMWF kills it when it enters the Gulf of Mexico. The strongest the system got was 1006mb in 24 hours.
miami does it look like 94L will get bumped up to red 50% at 8PM , its starting to look rather good
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Quoting AllStar17:
Looks like they removed Comment 112.
why?
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Quoting sammywammybamy:
South Florida and the Panhandle.
We all need rain but no Hurricane!!
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12z ECMWF kills it when it enters the Gulf of Mexico. The strongest the system got was 1006mb in 24 hours.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I think at this rate we may get red 60%-70% by 8pm and TD#1 by 2am/8am maybe TS Arlene by 12/8pm when HH flys in


Getting a little ahead of ourselves are we? XD

IMO unless something really major happens with our system they won't consider designating it TD 1 until the recon has gone in and found sufficient evidence that supports it. If this current trend in organization continues, I could see going code red tomorrow at 2PM, but probably not.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I think at this rate we may get red 60%-70% by 8pm and TD#1 by 2am/8am maybe TS Arlene by 12/8pm when HH flys in


not a chance
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I think at this rate we may get red 60%-70% by 8pm and TD#1 by 2am/8am maybe TS Arlene by 12/8pm when HH flys in
I am not sure about this, yet.
The appearance is really good, but it is mostly from the inclusion of the moisture from the T-Wave to it's SSE. Making it take on that comma shape. Later we will know.
Interesting stuff though!
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181. IKE
Day 5 12Z ECMWF....


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
They would have been able to give us a very accurate assessment of what is going on and would have given the models some good information to digest.
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Quoting AllStar17:
This looks like the strongest vorticity it has had yet. This also shows it is consolidating.




I agree on both.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15904
Quoting kmanislander:


The key will be to see how well it does between now and 7 pm this evening. That is when the heat of the day will be the biggest challenge to those cold cloud tops. If it can hold its own in a steady state until then we could see this ramp up appreciably tonight and potentially be classified in about 36 hours as a TD.

I don't see it becoming more than a minimal TS at most. This early in the season the sub tropical jet is too far South and once it gets beyond Cuba to the North it is NE and out to see quickly with little or no intensification.

My take for now.


Yeah exactly. We need to wait until it survives DMIN.
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Buoys and Wunderground stations indicate rotation.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I think at this rate we may get red 60%-70% by 8pm and TD#1 by 2am/8am maybe TS Arlene by 12/8pm when HH flys in


Too fast in my opinion, I would say still 40%/50% at 8pm, not much change by 2am and if it has held it's own by morning we'll see red then. I think earliest we'll see a TD is tuesday morning.
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It's getting more and more bothersome that there was no recon. in there today.
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Quoting Tazmanian:




i find it odd that he did not all so give you a 24hr ban for that vary lucky that he did not do that
There was nothing there to deserve a ban Taz and he reported it himself :)
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I think at this rate we may get red 60%-70% by 8pm and TD#1 by 2am/8am maybe TS Arlene by 12/8pm when HH flys in


Way too aggressive IMO
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15904
I guess we'll have a TS on top of us before advisories are issued, nothing new with us though, sure wish the NHC had sent HHs into 94L this afternoon, oh well...
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8033
I think at this rate we may get red 60%-70% by 8pm and TD#1 by 2am/8am maybe TS Arlene by 12/8pm when HH flys in
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12553
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Kman,

I Would like to know your thoughts on the current trend of Orginzation.



The key will be to see how well it does between now and 7 pm this evening. That is when the heat of the day will be the biggest challenge to those cold cloud tops. If it can hold its own in a steady state until then we could see this ramp up appreciably tonight and potentially be classified in about 36 hours as a TD.

I don't see it becoming more than a minimal TS at most. This early in the season the sub tropical jet is too far South and once it gets beyond Cuba to the North it is NE and out to see quickly with little or no intensification.

My take for now.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15904
Quoting aquak9:


Taz- it was a mistake, he did not do it to mess up the blog on purpose.



i no it was a mistake am this saying that he was lucky that he did not get a ban or for it be come we are now in a more active period of hurricane season



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Quoting Hurricanes101:


for what?

It was a post from WU, why would he be banned?
Due to how many times my comment was reported, Wunderblog Admin will automatically ban the member because they will think he/she is trolling (take he who shall not be named for example). I had to notify admin that it was a mistake and it's all good now.

Back to the tropics...
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This looks like the strongest vorticity it has had yet. This also shows it is consolidating.


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163. IKE
More models trending into the GOM.

Rainmaker anyone?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting weatherwatcher12:


Movement just west of due north, judging by data from Tropical Atlantic.

They also have a nice plot of the best track coordinates over there.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Located 0.4N, 0.2W from previous


AL 94 2011060512 BEST 0 164N 794W 25 1007 DB
AL 94 2011060518 BEST 0 168N 796W 25 1007 DB

now hopefully the next one will have moved 00.0N 03. (...)"E" back to 76.8W
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12553
05/1745 UTC 16.9N 78.8W T1.0/1.0 94L -- Atlantic

Up from "TOO WEAK" before.
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Quoting Tazmanian:




i find it odd that he did not all so give you a 24hr ban for that vary lucky that he did not do that


for what?

It was a post from WU, why would he be banned?
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Hello - haven't been on in forever but I see we have an invest that is starting to develop.

What are the current computer model paths showing and where can i view these? any help would be appreciated
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Hey, I'm at the beach!

I've kept myself interested by only looking here every 5 hours.

94L is looking great! Trying to wrap around, but the south side of the circulation is messed up.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
Quoting Tazmanian:




i find it odd that he did not all so give you a 24hr ban for that vary lucky that he did not do that


Taz- it was a mistake, he did not do it to mess up the blog on purpose.
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It also looks like 91E is well on its way to becoming a tropical depression.
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I just got on. Missed #112... whats new? do we have a storm yet?
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151. IKE

Quoting weatherwatcher12:

Movement just west of due north.
You're right...forget my earlier post....moving NNW.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Post removed. Had to notify WunderBlog Admin.




i find it odd that he did not all so give you a 24hr ban for that vary lucky that he did not do that
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.