Caribbean disturbance 94L dumping heavy rains on Jamaica

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:44 PM GMT on June 05, 2011

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A large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) continues to spread heavy rain to the Central Caribbean near Jamaica. Rain has fallen continuously at Jamaica's Kingston Norman Manley Airport since midnight, with 1.89" having fallen from midnight to noon local time. Sustained winds of 24 mph also affected Kingston between 7am and 8am this morning. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1.4" per hour occurred in ocean regions 100 miles to the southeast of Kingston this morning, and heavy rains of up to 1/2" per hour are probably affecting portions of Jamaica early this afternoon, judging by the recent increase in heavy thunderstorm activity seen on visible satellite loops. This imagery also shows a slow increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, with spiral bands beginning to develop to the southeast of the center. There is a broad, poorly-defined circulation apparent that is not well enough defined to make 94L a tropical depression. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air on the west side of 94L, and this dry air is interfering with the storm's organization. However, upper air balloon soundings from Kingston and the Cayman Islands taken at 8am EDT this morning show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere compared to Saturday (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 49% this morning at Grand Cayman), and 94L appears to be gradually overcoming its dry air issues. Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through Tuesday morning. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1.4" per hour (pink colors) were estimated by the F-15 satellite for 94L at 6:02am EDT Jun 5, 2011.

Since 94L is so large and is battling dry air, it is taking its sweet time to develop, and today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Monday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 06Z model runs are pretty unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. At 2pm EDT on Sunday, NHC gave the disturbance a 40% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. If 94L stays to the south, its chances of development are greater, since a band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The disturbance is expected to meander slowly westward or northward over the next two days, with Jamaica and southeastern Cuba being the primary targets for very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches through Tuesday. Haiti and Central Cuba can expect somewhat lesser rains of 3 - 6 inches. If 94L does develop into a tropical depression and moves northwards over Cuba by Wednesday, I don't see the storm attaining hurricane strength, due to the high wind shear. The primary threat from 94L will be very heavy rains, capable of causing life-threatening flash flooding.


Figure 2. Afternoon satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance 94L.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting ackee:
DO u guys think 94L centre has relocated ?

not yet
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11214
Quoting sammywammybamy:


I though it depends on what direction the Storm is traveling.....

If as you stated is true that the heavy weather is to the West of a System...

Then that means South and Central Florida would be getting the light side of a storm


I meant to write eastern instead of western. As you can see, the last line was correct. Some twit has already pointed out my typing error. LOl j/k
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Quoting Inactivity:
Anyone remember this little sucker?

Mid June 2010


Oh wow, now I do. Good ol 92L of last June. Some people were very upset we didn't end up with a Cape Verde storm in June XD
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Someone needs to wake up the people who run the RAMSDIS site. Their loops are always very useful, but they haven't been moved in weeks.
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Quoting 19N81W:
kman you seem to have a handle on this stuff....I have been reading over your posts and others...I have some outdoor plans this week so just wondering if it would be prudent to cancel....do you see us being impacted by this? I am expecting only a rain event...any comments?


I expect on and off heavy rain from tonight through the next several days. Not sure what your plans are but if it involves fishing you might want to stay at work. Winds sustained now at about 20 out of the NNE.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


I though it depends on what direction the Storm is traveling.....

If as you stated is true that the heavy weather is to the West of a System...

Then that means South and Central Florida would be getting the light side of a storm


The east side is usually the bad side. So, South and Central Florida would be getting rain and wind.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


91E




ok thank you
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Quoting Tazmanian:





is that for 91E or 94L?


91E
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time for a beer party 1st TD on of the season on the way
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Quoting Bitmap7:


Were you at the airport today wunderkid? And if yes are you still there?

sorry not today I am not in till tuesday
Quoting kmanislander:


Here is the link. Top of the page on the left

ok thanks
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11214
Quoting Seflhurricane:
the east side is the dirty side of the system the western side normally is the weaker , but that depends from system to system
Quoting Seflhurricane:
the east side is the dirty side of the system the western side normally is the weaker , but that depends from system to system



You are correct. If you read the whole thing though the last line explained that. I incorrectly wrote western in the first line in haste. It happens to old people a lot.
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Looks like the EPAC is just going to beat the Atlantic to the first storm of the season. NOAA predicts 15 in both basins, so we have something of a competition on the cards.... Haha
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Quoting Tazmanian:





is that for 91E or 94L?


91E
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431. ackee
DO u guys think 94L centre has relocated ?
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430. IKE
Models.... https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/p lots/storm_94.gif
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Quoting Levi32:


That's looking slightly more consolidated than earlier.


Yes it is. If it beats the heat of the day, and it is starting to look like it will, then tonight could be quite interesting.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ALERT ATCF MIL 91X XXX 110605180000
2011060518
10.2 261.8
13.6 259.0
110
10.5 261.5
052000
1106051951
1
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN21 PGTW 052000
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051951Z JUN 11//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 062000)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.2N 98.2W TO 13.6N 101.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 051800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.5N 98.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 01
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 062000Z.
//
9111060318 100N 980W 20
9111060400 100N 981W 20
9111060406 101N 981W 20
9111060412 102N 981W 20
9111060418 103N 981W 25
9111060500 103N 983W 25
9111060506 101N 984W 25
9111060512 104N 984W 25
9111060518 105N 985W 25
NNNN






is that for 91E or 94L?
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Quoting txjac:
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/DM_south.htm


Test, first time trying to post an image.


Well, that didnt work ...lol
You need to put the address in the button that says image.
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Quoting IKE:
Here's the 6-10 day precip. outlook....shows above normal for the peninsula of Florida....




I'd be happy with normal!!!!!
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As I have mentioned earlier, the big tail of 94L extends all the way to the Eastern Caribbean and is moving northward. Puerto Rico is under a flash flood watch until Tuesday afternoon,so this for sure will cause more flooding and mudslides as the grounds are very saturated.

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Quoting Levi32:


That's looking slightly more consolidated than earlier.
Looks like we have a sysytem that's on it's way to develope.It has the best chance out of any invest this year to become Arleane.
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Quoting kmanislander:
850 mb map as well



Yep. New convection developing directly over the area of strongest vorticity.
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we are well under way for the 1st TD of the season may be even a name storm?
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ALERT ATCF MIL 91X XXX 110605180000
2011060518
10.2 261.8
13.6 259.0
110
10.5 261.5
052000
1106051951
1
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN21 PGTW 052000
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051951Z JUN 11//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 062000)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.2N 98.2W TO 13.6N 101.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 051800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.5N 98.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 01
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 062000Z.
//
9111060318 100N 980W 20
9111060400 100N 981W 20
9111060406 101N 981W 20
9111060412 102N 981W 20
9111060418 103N 981W 25
9111060500 103N 983W 25
9111060506 101N 984W 25
9111060512 104N 984W 25
9111060518 105N 985W 25
NNNN

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
kman you seem to have a handle on this stuff....I have been reading over your posts and others...I have some outdoor plans this week so just wondering if it would be prudent to cancel....do you see us being impacted by this? I am expecting only a rain event...any comments?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

ok thanks can you post the link to that oh yes can it also show me past maps can you post that as well


Here is the link. Top of the page on the left
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

ok thanks can you post the link to that oh yes can it also show me past maps can you post that as well


Were you at the airport today wunderkid? And if yes are you still there?
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the next TWO will probably be 50% i do not see it being RED Circle yet
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Quoting Tazmanian:
looks like 94L is on its way too are 1st red of the season i say at lest %60 at the next two


I reckon it'll be kept a 40%, perhaps 50%. Don't think it's too well organised just yet.
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WTPN21 PHNC 052000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.2N 98.2W TO 13.6N 101.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
051800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.5N
98.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 98.5W IS
APPROXIMATELY 385 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH INCREASED CENTRAL CONVECTION BUILDING OVER
THE CENTER. A 061559Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS. A 051600Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS
ENHANCED NORTHWESTERLIES BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH
WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM REMAIN WEAK.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 28 DEGREES CELSIUS AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
062000Z.//
NNNN

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting washingtonian115:
We'll see.This has been taking sometime to develope.



and now its starting too come togetr and i mean fast
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Station 42058
NDBC
Location: 14.923N 74.918W
Conditions as of:
Sun, 05 Jun 2011 19:50:00 UTC
Winds: SSW (200°) at 9.7 kt gusting to 11.7 kt
Significant Wave Height: 3.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 6 sec
Mean Wave Direction: WSW (240°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.81 in and falling
Air Temperature: 79.0 F
Dew Point: 75.2 F
Water Temperature: 82.2 F


Station 42057
NDBC
Location: 17.003N 81.501W
Conditions as of:
Sun, 05 Jun 2011 19:50:00 UTC
Winds: NNE (20°) at 7.8 kt gusting to 9.7 kt
Significant Wave Height: 3.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Mean Wave Direction: NE (38°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.75 in(this is also falling last I checked it was 29.77)
Air Temperature: 82.2 F
Dew Point: 78.4 F
Water Temperature: 83.1 F

Station 42059
NDBC
Location: 15.054N 67.472W
Conditions as of:
Sun, 05 Jun 2011 19:50:00 UTC
Winds: ESE (120°) at 11.7 kt gusting to 13.6 kt
Significant Wave Height: 3.3 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 4 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.88 in and falling
Air Temperature: 80.8 F
Dew Point: 76.6 F
Water Temperature: 83.5 F
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Quoting kmanislander:
850 mb map as well



That's looking slightly more consolidated than earlier.
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
sooner i see a TD by either late tomorrow or tuesday
We'll see.This has been taking sometime to develope.
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Quoting kmanislander:


The 925 mb vort map confirms what I have been saying


ok thanks can you post the link to that oh yes can it also show me past maps can you post that as well
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11214
looks like 94L is on its way too are 1st red of the season i say at lest %60 at the next two
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Quoting Levi32:
It will be interesting to see if this buoy bottoms out in the diurnal valley lower than the previous cycle:

Pressure's already lower than yesterday's.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
850 mb map as well

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Quoting Seflhurricane:
sooner i see a TD by either late tomorrow or tuesday


Just to be awkward, I'm gonna go down the middle and say Wednesday :P
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kman is right if you look at the visible image the center is to the SSW of jamaica where the convection is currently concentrating
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Levi can you post a still satellite Rainbow image with a painted circle indicating the LLC? There is confusion here. I don't know where the center is... bahhh
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Quoting IKE:

998mb by tomorrow....


Seems a little extreme...
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Anyway I see that our system is almost taking advantage of it's surroundings now.We could could see a tropical depression by Thursday/friday.But I still have my doubts.
sooner i see a TD by either late tomorrow or tuesday
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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