Caribbean disturbance 94L dumping heavy rains on Jamaica

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:44 PM GMT on June 05, 2011

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A large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) continues to spread heavy rain to the Central Caribbean near Jamaica. Rain has fallen continuously at Jamaica's Kingston Norman Manley Airport since midnight, with 1.89" having fallen from midnight to noon local time. Sustained winds of 24 mph also affected Kingston between 7am and 8am this morning. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1.4" per hour occurred in ocean regions 100 miles to the southeast of Kingston this morning, and heavy rains of up to 1/2" per hour are probably affecting portions of Jamaica early this afternoon, judging by the recent increase in heavy thunderstorm activity seen on visible satellite loops. This imagery also shows a slow increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, with spiral bands beginning to develop to the southeast of the center. There is a broad, poorly-defined circulation apparent that is not well enough defined to make 94L a tropical depression. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air on the west side of 94L, and this dry air is interfering with the storm's organization. However, upper air balloon soundings from Kingston and the Cayman Islands taken at 8am EDT this morning show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere compared to Saturday (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 49% this morning at Grand Cayman), and 94L appears to be gradually overcoming its dry air issues. Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through Tuesday morning. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1.4" per hour (pink colors) were estimated by the F-15 satellite for 94L at 6:02am EDT Jun 5, 2011.

Since 94L is so large and is battling dry air, it is taking its sweet time to develop, and today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Monday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 06Z model runs are pretty unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. At 2pm EDT on Sunday, NHC gave the disturbance a 40% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. If 94L stays to the south, its chances of development are greater, since a band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The disturbance is expected to meander slowly westward or northward over the next two days, with Jamaica and southeastern Cuba being the primary targets for very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches through Tuesday. Haiti and Central Cuba can expect somewhat lesser rains of 3 - 6 inches. If 94L does develop into a tropical depression and moves northwards over Cuba by Wednesday, I don't see the storm attaining hurricane strength, due to the high wind shear. The primary threat from 94L will be very heavy rains, capable of causing life-threatening flash flooding.


Figure 2. Afternoon satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance 94L.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
Alex right before becoming a TD:



It will be interesting to see if 94L comes together like Alex did last year. No doubt Alex of last year was more organized in that satellite pic than 94L is right now, though.

Oh man, i see MASSIVE amounts of resemblance to 94L.
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1845. MahFL
LLC SW of Jamaica.



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Quoting islander101010:
hopefully it generally moves in a wnw direction toward texas


Some kind of mid level rotation going on there off the Yucatan
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1843. IKE
Grand Cayman....


84.2 °F

Mostly Cloudy

Pressure:


29.83 in

(Steady)


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting RitaEvac:
Looks like a totally different system in the NW carribean now
hopefully it generally moves in a wnw direction toward texas maybe everyone could benifit. pretty sure florida going to get alot of rain. right now it looks as organized as ive seen it
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1840. cg2916
What happened to the organization last night?
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1839. barbamz
Quoting Grothar:



Es war sehr lustig. Es erinnerte mich an jemanden hier. LOL Finally get rain in Germany? About time. I hope with this system in the we get some. Very, very dry.


Amounts of rain forecasted for Germany til Thursday (gfs - I hope the link will work). This would be the end of rain deficiency.
http://www.wzforum.de/pics/Rtavn8418.png
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Next!
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Alex right before becoming a TD:



It will be interesting to see if 94L comes together like Alex did last year. No doubt Alex of last year was more organized in that satellite pic than 94L is right now, though.
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1836. Levi32
Quoting EricSFL:
Did the NHC adjust the Floater's location toward the possible relocated center?



The floater has not moved. They need to move it again since the center is farther northwest today.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Levi, seems that the therefor another vortmax east of 94L

it looks like the vortmax is pushing Eastward
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12719
1834. EricSFL
Did the NHC adjust the Floater's location toward the possible relocated center?

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1833. Levi32
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Levi ,

The Center is located in between those two blobs of convection correct?

If there is a blow up/ merge of the two blobs over the center of circulation...

Would that induce the Broad llc becoming better organized


If convection can develop directly over the center, then yes it would be better organized.
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1832. Mucinex
Quoting IKE:

No wonder my front yard is raccoon-less.


Hehehe!;)
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Good Morning from Ja.

Some news regarding the weather:

Flood woes, Man feared drowned
Link

Flash flood warning remains in effect
Link

National Emergency centre activated
Link
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1829. Levi32
Quoting cg2916:
This reminds me of Fay, 2008. Officially the most annoying storm ever.


No comparison to Fay lol. Every early-season system that I can ever remember is like this, but Fay was its own thing entirely, strengthening over land and making landfall multiple times.
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Levi, seems that the therefor another vortmax east of 94L
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Quoting kmanislander:


I see that but look at this forecast map. In any event we should get heavy rain today and that is good.

Doesn't this show that most likely the low will move under the heaviest convection which would benefit 94L ?
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Quoting cg2916:
This reminds me of Fay, 2008. Officially the most annoying storm ever.


I think Fay dumped rain everywhere in Florida except for the Tampa Bay area. We got nuttin out of that thing. Some folks got 30", we got squadoosh.

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Quoting cg2916:
This reminds me of Fay, 2008. Officially the most annoying storm ever.


We could only hope for a fay here in Florida..
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Looks like a totally different system in the NW carribean now
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As badly as we need rain in Texas, I want this thing to steer to the east since I leave for a cruise on Monday going to Cozumel!
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1822. Levi32
Low-level vorticity with 94L is still elongated and broad, but slightly stronger than yesterday.

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Thanks Levi!
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1820. cg2916
This reminds me of Fay, 2008. Officially the most annoying storm ever.
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Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Monday, June 6th, with Video


Thanks for the update Levi
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Back later
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
I've lived in S.E. Florida since the late 70's and I do not remember it being this dry this late into June...... And to top it off I don't have a very good feeling about this hurricane season for us either....

So could someone please do a rain dance for us....
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1816. IKE

Quoting Mucinex:
The racoons do carry rabies, but so do the squirrels and possums. And the armadillos carry leprosy.

What you can do, if you think the racoons are climbing up to the nest from the ground is to pour some ammonia into an empty tuna can (or any kind of small can) and put it at the base of the tree or box post. They absolutely hate it. Makes them think a large predator is in the area.

If your more adventurous and into an "organic,non-toxic" solution, a bit of human peepee really does the trick, as well.

And, to stay on topic, if 94L doesn't make up it's mind soon I'm gonna pull my hair out.
No wonder my front yard is raccoon-less.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1815. Grothar
Quoting stormpetrol:


LMAO!!!


Been there, huh?
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Quoting kmanislander:


I see that but look at this forecast map. In any event we should get heavy rain today and that is good.


I think the low may go the same direction that the surface map is showing East back to SW Jamaica grab that convection then move WNW
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12719
Quoting Grothar:
Well, if you don't mind. I would like to give you a video I did many years on the weather. I hope you like it. I wish it had subtitle. If you like it, I can do a regular one on local weather here. Mind you I was just a kid.





They had camcorders back then? WOW! ;)
Morning Groth!
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1812. cg2916
Gro, you are awesome. Don't let anybody tell you otherwise.
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1811. Grothar
Quoting reedzone:
Some banding starting to develop north of the low. Broad, but is organizing well this morning. The two pieces are coming together.



You see that with a lot of early systems. Try to get all the energy in one center. It is as if they have a split-tail and do want they want to do. If they can consolidate, it would be a lot of energy. I am still maintain this will go North or North-west. Unless the atmosphere changes in the Gulf, I don't think it will move all that Northwest.
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1810. Mucinex
The racoons do carry rabies, but so do the squirrels and possums. And the armadillos carry leprosy.

What you can do, if you think the racoons are climbing up to the nest from the ground is to pour some ammonia into an empty tuna can (or any kind of small can) and put it at the base of the tree or box post. They absolutely hate it. Makes them think a large predator is in the area.

If your more adventurous and into an "organic,non-toxic" solution, a bit of human peepee really does the trick, as well.

And, to stay on topic, if 94L doesn't make up it's mind soon I'm gonna pull my hair out.
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1809. Hugo7
Quoting Chicklit:

I was on the phone listening to the hail. Couldn't find a decent satellite picture of it though. Too bad your photo didn't come out! Ike too funny. rofl
My wife thought I was crazy standing in the rain getting hailed on trying to catch the video. All I have is the initial drop that you can see, really no rotation on it, but It could have been an ef-0
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1808. Levi32
Good morning all.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Monday, June 6th, with Video
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1807. hydrus
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


The Equatorial Pacific continues to warm. Maybe El Nino appears and surprises us by the peak of the season, if the warming continues.
If it does, it usually takes a couple of months for the atmosphere to switch into the El-Nino pattern..If it will save some area from a landfall, bring it..
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


Kman,

Alot of models take the broad center over you.





I see that but look at this forecast map. In any event we should get heavy rain today and that is good.

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Good. :) cant wait to see what they have to say.
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1804. Grothar
Quoting barbamz:


LOL!! Grothar, bist Du das gewesen, dieser Bart?? Goldig. And has it been a hurricane, which struck Germany in the forecast (Edit: I mean the cloud show)?
Greetings from thunderstormy Germany, with bigggg amounts of rain in some regions, but not in our town Mainz. :(



Es war sehr lustig. Es erinnerte mich an jemanden hier. LOL Finally get rain in Germany? About time. I hope with this system in the we get some. Very, very dry.
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1802. IKE

Quoting CyclonicVoyage:




Had to spoil my dreams huh??
:(

Drought-caster.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1801. cg2916
I counted 40 points on the TCFA checklist. Somebody check me.
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Quoting Chicklit:
KmanIslander just documented that 94L is indeed a mess. Still it has two more days to sit there and get something together before meeting the wrecking ball.


It's almost as if it had a split personality LOL

Last night the low was weakening quickly and the blow up underneath Jamaica was trying to spin up in its place. That didn't happen, at least not yet, and so we are left with two distinct areas of deep convection.

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Quoting IKE:
5 day QPF....






Had to spoil my dreams huh??
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Quoting Hurrykane:
SST ANOMALIES 6/6/2011



SST ANOMALIES 6/5/2008


The Equatorial Pacific continues to warm. Maybe El Nino appears and surprises us by the peak of the season, if the warming continues.
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When you will have finished with the heavy rains in Jamaica, please send Very very heavy in the northern leewards islands! We really need it....
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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