Caribbean disturbance 94L dumping heavy rains on Jamaica

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:44 PM GMT on June 05, 2011

Share this Blog
8
+

A large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) continues to spread heavy rain to the Central Caribbean near Jamaica. Rain has fallen continuously at Jamaica's Kingston Norman Manley Airport since midnight, with 1.89" having fallen from midnight to noon local time. Sustained winds of 24 mph also affected Kingston between 7am and 8am this morning. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1.4" per hour occurred in ocean regions 100 miles to the southeast of Kingston this morning, and heavy rains of up to 1/2" per hour are probably affecting portions of Jamaica early this afternoon, judging by the recent increase in heavy thunderstorm activity seen on visible satellite loops. This imagery also shows a slow increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, with spiral bands beginning to develop to the southeast of the center. There is a broad, poorly-defined circulation apparent that is not well enough defined to make 94L a tropical depression. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air on the west side of 94L, and this dry air is interfering with the storm's organization. However, upper air balloon soundings from Kingston and the Cayman Islands taken at 8am EDT this morning show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere compared to Saturday (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 49% this morning at Grand Cayman), and 94L appears to be gradually overcoming its dry air issues. Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through Tuesday morning. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1.4" per hour (pink colors) were estimated by the F-15 satellite for 94L at 6:02am EDT Jun 5, 2011.

Since 94L is so large and is battling dry air, it is taking its sweet time to develop, and today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Monday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 06Z model runs are pretty unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. At 2pm EDT on Sunday, NHC gave the disturbance a 40% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. If 94L stays to the south, its chances of development are greater, since a band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The disturbance is expected to meander slowly westward or northward over the next two days, with Jamaica and southeastern Cuba being the primary targets for very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches through Tuesday. Haiti and Central Cuba can expect somewhat lesser rains of 3 - 6 inches. If 94L does develop into a tropical depression and moves northwards over Cuba by Wednesday, I don't see the storm attaining hurricane strength, due to the high wind shear. The primary threat from 94L will be very heavy rains, capable of causing life-threatening flash flooding.


Figure 2. Afternoon satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance 94L.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 547 - 497

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39Blog Index

When is Dmax again? 3 hrs from now?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Tropical Storm Allison on June 5, 2001
Formed June 4, 2001
Dissipated June 18, 2001
Highest
winds
1-minute sustained:
60 mph (95 km/h)
Lowest pressure 1000 mbar (hPa; 29.53 inHg)
Fatalities 41 direct, 14 indirect
Damage $5.5 billion (2001 USD)
$6.82 billion (2011 USD)
Areas
affected Texas (particularly around Houston), Louisiana, most of the Eastern United States

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Since when is the GFDL not reliable?


Since when are local newscasts reliable?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PcolaDan:


I got chastised by Taz. :(



LOL you can post what evere you like but i was giveing you a nic wanring



so feel free too post what evere you feel like this be careful
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LPStormspotter:
10 yes ago today. Most of us in SE Tx were walking in our homes with water to the knees ..


Worst tropical storm in history (in terms of damages).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
60% at 8pm I think if this trend with 94L continues
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
540. IKE
NAM @ 84 hours...NAM isn't great on tropics, but it's consistent with most models on 94L...


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
10 yes ago today. Most of us in SE Tx were walking in our homes with water to the knees ..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aquak9:
Yaaawn- StrEeeeeetch- just woke up from a puppynap

(looks around, wags tail) did i miss anything?


I got chastised by Taz. :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LPStormspotter:

Our local newscast said 1model brings it towards upper Tx coastline. But it's not a reliable one. Thanks for your answer


Since when is the GFDL not reliable?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormpetrol:
Is it me or has the LLC of 94L moving more westward now or just a tad south of due west, I have it at around 16.2/79.1
Go back a page and you should find the discussion between kman and Levi about this.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Depends.... it all depends on the circumstances

Our local newscast said 1model brings it towards upper Tx coastline. But it's not a reliable one. Thanks for your answer
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Is it me or has the LLC of 94L moving more westward now or just a tad south of due west, I have it at around 16.2/79.1
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
RAMMB Page AL942011 - INVEST
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
Quoting Patrap:
94L Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis



79.5 W - good job, Levi.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:


Say what ?


well I am saying not gonna happen we might even get a COC so yea not gonna
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12719
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
Three more people hospitalized during the Joplin tornado two weeks ago this afternoon have died, bringing the death toll from that one storm to 141, and the year-to-date total to 526.

Incredible And incredibly sad.


Wow, that really was a mad storm. Tragic. Hard to believe that one tornado managed to cause more damage and loss of life than most US landfalling hurricanes do. I guess it's just the more advanced warnings.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
Quoting aquak9:
Yaaawn- StrEeeeeetch- just woke up from a puppynap

(looks around, wags tail) did i miss anything?
Ehhh nope.I think you can go back to sleep now.Lol.Hey aquak9.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Say what ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sammywammybamy:


^ Ok.

Without Futher Adu:

Due to the Unusual Lack of a Poll Question , I Must Compensate for this Error

POLL:

What is the Percantage on the Next Two for 94L

A) 30%
B) 40%
C) 50%
D) 60%
E) 70%
F) Shower Curtains!


B - NHC is usually conservative.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
517. srada
Hello Everyone..

A wait and see to see where this storm heads..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Fair enough mate. Just try not to obsess over bans and strict rules too much.



well do
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
498
You need to look at the lower level cumulus. The heeavy thunderstorm activity is causing a mid level low pressure center to develop. The actual low level center is further west. The banding you are seeing could very well be a feeder band in either case.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yaaawn- StrEeeeeetch- just woke up from a puppynap

(looks around, wags tail) did i miss anything?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



i no was this giveimg hmm a warning i would hate too see any one ban for 24hrs


Fair enough mate. Just try not to obsess over bans and strict rules too much.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
510. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 PM EDT SUN JUN 05 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A NEARLY STATIONARY WEAK 1007 MB LOW IS NEAR 17N79W
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING S FROM THE LOW TO NEAR CENTRAL PANAMA.
THESE FEATURES WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE N THROUGH THE WEEK...
WHILE THE LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A POSSIBLE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. BROAD TROUGHING IS IN THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N
ATLC FROM 20N55W TO 19N65W WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTION S OF 15N ALONG 57W. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL LIFT NW
MERGING WITH THE TROUGH MON INTO TUE. THE TROUGHING WILL LINGER
THROUGH FRI. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE TROPICAL N
ATLC WED THEN INTO THE E CARIBBEAN FRI.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
D or E
Well you all might say I'm being conservative but I suspect it to stay the same or go just to 50%.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Taz, there's blog admins to do this.



i no was this giveimg him a warning i would hate too see any one ban for 24hrs
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
507. IKE

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
D or E
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12719
Quoting xcool:
washingkay.tonian115 just guess.
Okay.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sammywammybamy:


^ Ok.

Without Futher Adu:

Due to the Unusual Lack of a Poll Question , I Must Compensate for this Error

POLL:

What is the Percantage on the Next Two for 94L

A) 30%
B) 40%
C) 50%
D) 60%
E) 70%
F) Shower Curtains!


F
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting xcool:


Look at the BAMD, takes it to GA, have never heard of a tropical system making landfall in GA in a while.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
501. xcool
washingtonian115 just guess.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Tazmanian:



During active periods of hurricane season, these rules will be strictly enforced. Violations will be met with a minimum 24 hour ban.


with 94L geting its act togeter we are now in a active period wish means some ruls may be strictly enforced so i would watch what you post and keep evere thing re rated too 94L so in other words what you are posting is not re rated too 94L


Taz, there's blog admins to do this.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Is that from the outlook or from your guess?.



he was this makeing a guess i think
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
498. beell
If 17.5N 76.5W is mid level it sure is hard to ignore what appears to be a feeder band SW of this point working its way to the east.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16924
its 1007.6 and falling
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12719

Viewing: 547 - 497

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron