Caribbean disturbance 94L dumping heavy rains on Jamaica

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:44 PM GMT on June 05, 2011

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A large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) continues to spread heavy rain to the Central Caribbean near Jamaica. Rain has fallen continuously at Jamaica's Kingston Norman Manley Airport since midnight, with 1.89" having fallen from midnight to noon local time. Sustained winds of 24 mph also affected Kingston between 7am and 8am this morning. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1.4" per hour occurred in ocean regions 100 miles to the southeast of Kingston this morning, and heavy rains of up to 1/2" per hour are probably affecting portions of Jamaica early this afternoon, judging by the recent increase in heavy thunderstorm activity seen on visible satellite loops. This imagery also shows a slow increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, with spiral bands beginning to develop to the southeast of the center. There is a broad, poorly-defined circulation apparent that is not well enough defined to make 94L a tropical depression. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air on the west side of 94L, and this dry air is interfering with the storm's organization. However, upper air balloon soundings from Kingston and the Cayman Islands taken at 8am EDT this morning show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere compared to Saturday (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 49% this morning at Grand Cayman), and 94L appears to be gradually overcoming its dry air issues. Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through Tuesday morning. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1.4" per hour (pink colors) were estimated by the F-15 satellite for 94L at 6:02am EDT Jun 5, 2011.

Since 94L is so large and is battling dry air, it is taking its sweet time to develop, and today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Monday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 06Z model runs are pretty unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. At 2pm EDT on Sunday, NHC gave the disturbance a 40% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. If 94L stays to the south, its chances of development are greater, since a band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The disturbance is expected to meander slowly westward or northward over the next two days, with Jamaica and southeastern Cuba being the primary targets for very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches through Tuesday. Haiti and Central Cuba can expect somewhat lesser rains of 3 - 6 inches. If 94L does develop into a tropical depression and moves northwards over Cuba by Wednesday, I don't see the storm attaining hurricane strength, due to the high wind shear. The primary threat from 94L will be very heavy rains, capable of causing life-threatening flash flooding.


Figure 2. Afternoon satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance 94L.

Jeff Masters

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petrol- yeah, east. still waking up.
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Quoting IKE:


No more fish storm...
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Quoting MrstormX:
Does the google earth ap for recon data still work?


Yes, they still have it here.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
91E



That's what a storm approaching tropical depression status looks like.
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593. IKE

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Quoting Patrap:


I was living on the west side of Houston, luckily on high enough ground the water didn't make it into the house.

I remember watching newscasters trying to wrap their minds/mouths around the concept "feet of rain;" several said "snow" and corrected themselves.
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91E

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Quoting aquak9:
16.2 77.9

stormpetrol, I go a little further west than you. But my eyes have a hard time discerning low vs mid under the congestulation of the CDO.

P'cola- for shame
wash'n- nope, no more nap for now. I awake.
If your staying for the night shift I think you'll need a cup of coffe with alot of sugar in it.The trolls will be out soon.It's only a matter of time.
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Bring that rain into South TX. We really, really need it.
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Models are coming around closer to Climatology.

Afternoon All. Looks like we'll be talking depression tomorrow if trends continue. The T-Storms in the west as some have indicated are a good sign we'll be looking at a more symmetrical system tomorrow. High pressure is venting the area nicely. Imagine we'll see the best of 94L yet tomorrow morning.

Still praying it comes this way. I was sitting at the Marina having lunch on Singer Island (SEFL) with the family and looked out to see Peanut Island on fire in the middle of the Intracoastal, for those that are familiar. Likely started by a cigarette or barbecue grill as it's a popular hangout for boats on the weekend.


And, to clarify my post. Talking depression is possible not that there will be..
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting MrstormX:
Does the google earth ap for recon data still work?


It was working the other day when they flew non scheduled mission in the gulf for 93L

tropicalatlantic
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
94L hasn't changed much in organization since 2pm so I'm not sure why some are thinking code red at 8. The center is still displaced of any convection...


I agree, I'd be suprised if we see red. May get 50%, but I think 40% is most likely.
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Pressure at 42057 is under 1007mb now.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26682
Quoting aquak9:
16.2 77.9

stormpetrol, I go a little further west than you. But my eyes have a hard time discerning low vs mid under the congestulation of the CDO.

P'cola- for shame
wash'n- nope, no more nap for now. I awake.
You have to look at the lower-level clouds and into what direction their flowing/moving into (inflow). You can tell that the circulation that we saw earlier rotating within the convective activity was in the mid-level because it did not have inflow in the lower-levels from all 4 directions.
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Quoting MrstormX:


Convection is wrapping around the center now, no longer all displaced in a big blob to the East.
Is it? Where do you have the center located? The center is around 79.5W, which is west of any convection...
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94L Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop

The Last Frame Looks like Nicholas Cage



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089


Only 2 models now see a fish storm...Gotta like the GFDL track...
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IR looking pretty ragged....

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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
94L hasn't changed much in organization since 2pm so I'm not sure why some are thinking code red at 8. The center is still displaced of any convection...


Convection is wrapping around the center now, no longer all displaced in a big blob to the East.
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Quoting MrstormX:
Does the google earth ap for recon data still work?
Yup.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Hi aquak, hope you have been keeping your heads held high, keep hoping for rain, and oh, I know what will help, the RAIN DANCE!!!


Heck I did the "Rain Dance" and it went around me here....

Taco :o)
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94L may be organizing, but it still has a long way to go before becoming a tropical depression. The circulation remains very broad, and convection is still limited to east of the center, and the center remains exposed, which is why we can spot it. It remains to be seen whether the NW Caribbean is moist enough to support thunderstorm development over the center. We will likely find out tonight during DMIN. It's going to be a slow process no matter what. These kinds of systems don't spin up overnight. There is also a good reason why most of the models aren't too excited about this system. It will be like pulling teeth to get proper development.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26682
Sammy, I am going with the majority, by saying D:60%.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting CanesfanatUT:
When is Dmax again? 3 hrs from now?


DMIN-Sunset

DMAX-Sunrise
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Quoting starbuck02:


Sometimes yes. Our local meteorologist said Charley would make the eastward turn towards Fort Myers/SW Florida before any of the models shifted south.
This is a true statement. Our locals in the 11th hour, broke away from the NHC and all the models to report Charlie was headed for the Ft. Myers area.
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D - 60%
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94L hasn't changed much in organization since 2pm so I'm not sure why some are thinking code red at 8. The center is still displaced of any convection...
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C - 50%
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:


Say what ?
Quoting Patrap:
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Quoting aquak9:
16.2 77.9

stormpetrol, I go a little further west than you. But my eyes have a hard time discerning low vs mid under the congestulation of the CDO.

P'cola- for shame
wash'n- nope, no more nap for now. I awake.


Hi aquak, hope you have been keeping your heads held high, keep hoping for rain, and oh, I know what will help, the RAIN DANCE!!!
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
POLL:

What is the Percantage on the Next Two for 94L

A) 30%
B) 40%
C) 50%
D) 60%
E) 70%
F) Shower Curtains!


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

POLL RESULTS (So Far)

-------------
B C D E F
B C D E F
B C D 0 F
0 C D
0 0 D

3 4 5 2 3

60% is now Leading in the Poll
Member Since: June 17, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 5010
Does the google earth ap for recon data still work?
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528
Hey! Why does Levi get all the credit, several of us picked out the LLC as well haha.
I'm very happy to see as much improvement on this sort of thing, wasn't long ago most of us younger guys (Im 20) had no idea what we were looking at haha. Big shout out to W456 and others who really gave their time in teaching.
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Quoting IKE:



Models are coming around closer to Climatology.

Afternoon All. Looks like we'll be talking depression tomorrow if trends continue. The T-Storms in the west as some have indicated are a good sign we'll be looking at a more symmetrical system tomorrow. High pressure is venting the area nicely. Imagine we'll see the best of 94L yet tomorrow morning.

Still praying it comes this way. I was sitting at the Marina having lunch on Singer Island (SEFL) with the family and looked out to see Peanut Island on fire in the middle of the Intracoastal, for those that are familiar. Likely started by a cigarette or barbecue grill as it's a popular hangout for boats on the weekend.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Wow, that really was a mad storm. Tragic. Hard to believe that one tornado managed to cause more damage and loss of life than most US landfalling hurricanes do. I guess it's just the more advanced warnings.

My Mom, 2 Brothers and 2 Sisters live in Joplin Mo although they are the lucky ones and they are fine. My Brother told me its just like what Hurricane Fredrick did to Mobile back in 79.... Damagae almost looks the same....

Also I have to say that I was wrong I think about our 1st storm.... I made the comment that it would be Tuesday and if it did not form it would be closer to the 15th- 25th of June....

While I wypall the "Egg" off of Face :o)

Taco :o)
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Quoting aquak9:
16.2 77.9

stormpetrol, I go a little further west than you. But my eyes have a hard time discerning low vs mid under the congestulation of the CDO.

P'cola- for shame
wash'n- nope, no more nap for now. I awake.

Ithink you mean East according to your coordinates
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8001
604
WHXX01 KWBC 051807
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1807 UTC SUN JUN 5 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942011) 20110605 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110605 1800 110606 0600 110606 1800 110607 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.8N 79.6W 17.2N 80.4W 17.6N 81.1W 17.7N 81.7W
BAMD 16.8N 79.6W 17.5N 80.3W 18.6N 80.7W 20.0N 80.3W
BAMM 16.8N 79.6W 17.3N 80.4W 18.0N 80.8W 18.5N 80.9W
LBAR 16.8N 79.6W 17.6N 79.9W 18.6N 79.9W 19.7N 79.0W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110607 1800 110608 1800 110609 1800 110610 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.7N 82.2W 17.7N 83.7W 17.8N 85.0W 18.4N 86.2W
BAMD 21.6N 79.3W 25.5N 77.5W 28.8N 78.5W 31.1N 81.0W
BAMM 19.1N 80.8W 20.3N 81.1W 22.4N 81.4W 24.4N 82.7W
LBAR 20.6N 77.6W 22.5N 73.8W 25.6N 70.1W 27.8N 65.9W
SHIP 33KTS 22KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 33KTS 22KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.8N LONCUR = 79.6W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 16.2N LONM12 = 79.1W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 16.1N LONM24 = 78.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 175NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN
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I say 57.549132%
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Quoting IKE:
NAM @ 84 hours...NAM isn't great on tropics, but it's consistent with most models on 94L...




Parallel NAM a little less agressive


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Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Since when is the GFDL not reliable?
I thought the same thing. That's why I asked the question
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Quoting Tazmanian:



LOL you can post what evere you like but i was giveing you a nic wanring



so feel free too post what evere you feel like this be careful


I know Taz. I didn't take it personally. I knew your intentions were good. :)
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555. Mikla
Thoughts on 94L:

Water Temp: (3) Good
Moisture: (2) Dry air seems to be less of a problem, though there is still some to the North that is hindering development to the NW. I would still say moisture is a problem (though it appears to be improving)
Shear: (1) 10-20kts, marginal
Shear Tendency: (4) It looks like it should improve significantly over the next 24 hours
Convergence: (2) If you look at the lower level winds, the inflow looks pretty good except to the East
Divergence: (2) Looking at the upper level winds, the anticyclone looks a bit ragged to the East but definitely is providing outflow
Vorticity: (3) Looking at the vorticity plots, things look very good up through 500mb. And if you look at progression over the last couple of days vorticity has been improving.

So, if I use a poor man’s cyclone prediction method (score each area 1-5, 5 being best), I would say that there is a ~50% chance (3+2+1+4+2+2+3/35) of development (assuming equal weighting)… Your results may vary.

Steering: No clue, there are two many factors at this point and until this develops into something it will be hard to predict (though I will say the direction will have a “N” in it).
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Quoting aquak9:
Yaaawn- StrEeeeeetch- just woke up from a puppynap

(looks around, wags tail) did i miss anything?
naw still just as nuts as it was when ya started the puppynap
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Only Atlantic Tropical Storm Name to be retired


It dosent have to be Big and Bad,,only wet and linger to damage and take lives


TS Alison

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting caneswatch:


Mine actually is LOL


Sometimes yes. Our local meteorologist said Charley would make the eastward turn towards Fort Myers/SW Florida before any of the models shifted south.
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I'd go with 60 or 70% if 94L keeps it up.
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Quoting starbuck02:


Since when are local newscasts reliable?


Mine actually is LOL
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Quoting stormpetrol:
60% at 8pm I think if this trend with 94L continues


I agree 100%.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
16.2 77.9

stormpetrol, I go a little further west than you. But my eyes have a hard time discerning low vs mid under the congestulation of the CDO.

P'cola- for shame
wash'n- nope, no more nap for now. I awake.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
NAM @ 84 hours...NAM isn't great on tropics, but it's consistent with most models on 94L...




Post more!
Member Since: June 17, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 5010

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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