Caribbean disturbance 94L dumping heavy rains on Jamaica

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:44 PM GMT on June 05, 2011

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A large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) continues to spread heavy rain to the Central Caribbean near Jamaica. Rain has fallen continuously at Jamaica's Kingston Norman Manley Airport since midnight, with 1.89" having fallen from midnight to noon local time. Sustained winds of 24 mph also affected Kingston between 7am and 8am this morning. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1.4" per hour occurred in ocean regions 100 miles to the southeast of Kingston this morning, and heavy rains of up to 1/2" per hour are probably affecting portions of Jamaica early this afternoon, judging by the recent increase in heavy thunderstorm activity seen on visible satellite loops. This imagery also shows a slow increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, with spiral bands beginning to develop to the southeast of the center. There is a broad, poorly-defined circulation apparent that is not well enough defined to make 94L a tropical depression. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air on the west side of 94L, and this dry air is interfering with the storm's organization. However, upper air balloon soundings from Kingston and the Cayman Islands taken at 8am EDT this morning show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere compared to Saturday (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 49% this morning at Grand Cayman), and 94L appears to be gradually overcoming its dry air issues. Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through Tuesday morning. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1.4" per hour (pink colors) were estimated by the F-15 satellite for 94L at 6:02am EDT Jun 5, 2011.

Since 94L is so large and is battling dry air, it is taking its sweet time to develop, and today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Monday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 06Z model runs are pretty unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. At 2pm EDT on Sunday, NHC gave the disturbance a 40% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. If 94L stays to the south, its chances of development are greater, since a band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The disturbance is expected to meander slowly westward or northward over the next two days, with Jamaica and southeastern Cuba being the primary targets for very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches through Tuesday. Haiti and Central Cuba can expect somewhat lesser rains of 3 - 6 inches. If 94L does develop into a tropical depression and moves northwards over Cuba by Wednesday, I don't see the storm attaining hurricane strength, due to the high wind shear. The primary threat from 94L will be very heavy rains, capable of causing life-threatening flash flooding.


Figure 2. Afternoon satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance 94L.

Jeff Masters

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kemah, tx

102 F

Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 342
Quoting Tazmanian:
i am all most at 102.000 commets


That's not weather or hurricane related.



HAHAHAHA Gotcha :)
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Quoting PcolaDan:


They call me Ishmael. I don't get it. :|



Don't get so Mobey on us. It is too late in the day. They call me Yosarian. See if you catch that.
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i am all most at 102.000 commets
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114649
Wow, haven't checked in in a day or so. interesting stuff going on with 94L.

We just got about 2 1/2 inches of rain in an hour. Wild lightning with it though. It was pretty scary around here. Thank goodness for surge protectors!
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94L will be interesting to watch tonight!
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740. HCW
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Link
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
Quoting plywoodstatenative:


As they call me ply or psn, its the same way.


They call me Ishmael. I don't get it. :|
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
You're forgiven. It's going to be a long season so you better relax before you have a nervous breakdown :D


funny my mother said the same thing couple of days ago
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 10852
Quoting aquak9:
and nrtiwlnvrgn is really just eyewall
LOL, I would of never figured it out if he wouldn't of said anything. Northern eyewall never again...
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Quoting eliteforecaster:
why is the minimum pressure over water during the day time if the maximum convection occurs during nighttime?
could someone answer my question???

Why does the daily lowest pressure occur during day over the ocean? Shouldn't it be during night when the convection is greatest?
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Quoting cajunkid:
some are a little testy today...lol



You can say that again, KID. LOL
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POSS T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/94L
MARK
16.79N/77.23W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53285
Just took a drive in Georgetown, the ripples are coming in from NNW, overall the weather here in Grand Cayman looking disturbed
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Quoting masonsnana:
Lets just say the entire state needs rain!
According to my magical wond you all will get your rain...but maybe during July-September.Here I'll try to spin up a weak tropical distubance for you all.
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Is that a band developing to the west?
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T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/91E
MARK
11.55N/101.2W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53285
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


sorry long day
You're forgiven. It's going to be a long season so you better relax before you have a nervous breakdown :D
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Hey Taz, thought you all had that rain in La and such over the weekend.



yup and not i want a heat wave
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114649
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
For crying out loud. He was just using a short version of your name like how they call me storm. Relax.


sorry long day
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 10852
plzs send a heat wave this way plzs
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114649
we here in N CA have not seen a heat wave yet this year
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114649
and nrtiwlnvrgn is really just eyewall
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Hey Taz, thought you all had that rain in La and such over the weekend.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127355
hey 82- word from local Redcross captain, says the fire's around 210 in Clay County. Don't know exactly where you're at, but we been smokey all day here out Hodges/JTB way.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
For crying out loud. He was just using a short version of your name like how they call me storm. Relax.


As they call me ply or psn, its the same way.
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any one want too trad me a rain for a heat wave i want in CA so bad
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114649
Buoy 42057, at 81.52W, has a pressure of 1007.1 mb, and falling.
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some are a little testy today...lol
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Quoting taco2me61:

Yes it did cool us off but we had no Rain at all....
Good to see ya on here again Scott39

"ugh"

Taco :o)
Good to see you too Taco. Did you experience that extreme lightning, wind, hail and rain storm on Friday Afternoon? It came up very fast and it was intense where I am!
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Quoting aquak9:


you got sumpin', but we don't call it magic, heh heh heh j/k
Your next aquak.Lol.
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Quoting Jax82:


Quite smokey today, apparently there are 200,000 acres of fires within a 50-mile radius of Jacksonville. There is also a black bear on the loose in Orange Park ;)


We have a large fire now burning on the Dade-Broward County line. So yes we need rain badly
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:


for your information I AM NOT A KID ALTHOUGH MY HANDLE SAYS IT I AM NOT YOU GOT ME MATE


This is for anyone else I believe the Cuban radar caught part of that circulation SE of Jamaica you can just bearly see it

Link



The topography of the island makes it virtually impossible to see that location using radar.
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


for your information I AM NOT A KID ALTHOUGH MY HANDLE SAYS IT I AM NOT YOU GOT ME MATE


This is for anyone else I believe the Cuban radar caught part of that circulation SE of Jamaica you can just bearly see it

Link


For crying out loud. He was just using a short version of your name like how they call me storm. Relax.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting eliteforecaster:
why is it so much easier for EPAC storms to get going than Atlantic storms??

Most epac storms don't even form from t waves like they do in the Atlantic which just shows that storms in the Atlantic often need the pre existing moisture, vorticity, and convection to form in the first place.


Every single tropical cyclone in the world needs those conditions met. It is not an Atlantic thing. Atlantic storms have land to deal with when they develop, which often makes it more difficult. The EPAC has the monsoon trough, which has SW winds meeting NE trade winds out of the Caribbean. This setup is much more conducive for cyclonic vorticity than the normal ITCZ that the Atlantic usually has, consisting of NE trades meeting SE trades.

The EPAC also has somewhat less issues with dry air than the Atlantic does, as the semipermanent Texas ridge keeps mid-latitude troughs from invading and depositing dry air into the tropics. The Atlantic also has to deal with dry Saharan dust outbreaks that travel as far west as the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. The EPAC overall does have it easier, but there is no difference in the conditions that have to be met for tropical cyclones to form in either basin.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26543
i no i no



i trad you the heat if you guys want the rain
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114649
706. Jax82
Quoting aquak9:
hey hey hey ya'll in SFla- we need the rain up here in N Fla, too.


Quite smokey today, apparently there are 200,000 acres of fires within a 50-mile radius of Jacksonville. There is also a black bear on the loose in Orange Park ;)
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Quoting aquak9:
hey hey hey ya'll in SFla- we need the rain up here in N Fla, too.


IKE hogs it all... he got rain the last two days...us nada.
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Quoting Waltanater:
I concur kid.


for your information I AM NOT A KID ALTHOUGH MY HANDLE SAYS IT I AM NOT YOU GOT ME MATE


This is for anyone else I believe the Cuban radar caught part of that circulation SE of Jamaica you can just bearly see it

Link


Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 10852
Quoting washingtonian115:
Where is everybody?.Everytime I get on people dissapear.Hmm maybe I do have magic after all.


you got sumpin', but we don't call it magic, heh heh heh j/k
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Quoting aquak9:
hey hey hey ya'll in SFla- we need the rain up here in N Fla, too.
Lets just say the entire state needs rain!
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Quoting orthodoxkc:


Auntie Samantha is that you ?
No.Lol.But according to one blogger they said I had a magical wond,and then they said.."Why don't you spread your magical fairy dust so that the climate can go to it's regular state."So then I thought..why not?.But I'm doing it one step at a time...
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18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest94
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)


Early Model Wind Forecasts
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127355
Quoting orthodoxkc:


Could this just develop into a weak TS and then park itself over South Florida for a couple of days ? We need the rain badly.

Please excuse any ignorance of the weather I am no expert but just a worry-wort about hurricanes, as I went through Andrew in South Dade and never want to experience that again.


As now the ECM and GFS models have been trending towards a wetter outlook for sfl mid next week. The ECM model in particular has been pretty aggressive with precip totals.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13621
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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