Caribbean disturbance 94L dumping heavy rains on Jamaica

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:44 PM GMT on June 05, 2011

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A large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) continues to spread heavy rain to the Central Caribbean near Jamaica. Rain has fallen continuously at Jamaica's Kingston Norman Manley Airport since midnight, with 1.89" having fallen from midnight to noon local time. Sustained winds of 24 mph also affected Kingston between 7am and 8am this morning. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1.4" per hour occurred in ocean regions 100 miles to the southeast of Kingston this morning, and heavy rains of up to 1/2" per hour are probably affecting portions of Jamaica early this afternoon, judging by the recent increase in heavy thunderstorm activity seen on visible satellite loops. This imagery also shows a slow increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, with spiral bands beginning to develop to the southeast of the center. There is a broad, poorly-defined circulation apparent that is not well enough defined to make 94L a tropical depression. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air on the west side of 94L, and this dry air is interfering with the storm's organization. However, upper air balloon soundings from Kingston and the Cayman Islands taken at 8am EDT this morning show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere compared to Saturday (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 49% this morning at Grand Cayman), and 94L appears to be gradually overcoming its dry air issues. Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through Tuesday morning. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1.4" per hour (pink colors) were estimated by the F-15 satellite for 94L at 6:02am EDT Jun 5, 2011.

Since 94L is so large and is battling dry air, it is taking its sweet time to develop, and today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Monday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 06Z model runs are pretty unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. At 2pm EDT on Sunday, NHC gave the disturbance a 40% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. If 94L stays to the south, its chances of development are greater, since a band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The disturbance is expected to meander slowly westward or northward over the next two days, with Jamaica and southeastern Cuba being the primary targets for very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches through Tuesday. Haiti and Central Cuba can expect somewhat lesser rains of 3 - 6 inches. If 94L does develop into a tropical depression and moves northwards over Cuba by Wednesday, I don't see the storm attaining hurricane strength, due to the high wind shear. The primary threat from 94L will be very heavy rains, capable of causing life-threatening flash flooding.


Figure 2. Afternoon satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance 94L.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yes I think you are very much so correct


Before



Now

You cannot deny the fact that it looked much better earlier.
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1145. xcool
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110606 0000 110606 1200 110607 0000 110607 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.9N 80.1W 17.3N 80.9W 17.7N 81.6W 18.0N 82.3W
BAMD 16.9N 80.1W 17.6N 80.7W 18.9N 80.9W 20.4N 80.4W
BAMM 16.9N 80.1W 17.5N 80.8W 18.2N 81.2W 18.8N 81.3W
LBAR 16.9N 80.1W 17.8N 80.6W 18.9N 80.5W 19.9N 79.9W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 30KTS 31KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 30KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110608 0000 110609 0000 110610 0000 110611 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.1N 83.1W 18.4N 85.0W 18.4N 86.4W 18.6N 87.9W
BAMD 22.3N 79.5W 26.4N 78.2W 29.6N 80.0W 31.2N 82.6W
BAMM 19.5N 81.5W 21.2N 82.3W 22.9N 83.2W 24.2N 84.7W
LBAR 20.9N 78.7W 22.3N 75.9W 24.9N 73.7W 27.6N 72.0W
SHIP 30KTS 19KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 30KTS 19KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.9N LONCUR = 80.1W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 16.4N LONM12 = 79.4W DIRM12 = 311DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 16.1N LONM24 = 78.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 175NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 275NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
1144. pottery
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Pottery what is this guy on about

I think he is trying to get to you.
Dont take it on.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
Pottery what is this guy on about
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Link

I starting to think 16.5N/77.5W is becoming the dominant center, really tightening up there, check link

yes I think you are very much so correct
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Just because the bright colors have faded with 94L doesn't mean its weakening, I think it has become more organized , much larger, and is also ventilating quite nicely, it just the cycles with convection, 94L is well on the way in my opinion to becoming the first named storm of the Atlantic 2011 H Season.

what are you talking about the fading current LLC near 80/81W or the possibly reforming LLC under the MLC south of Jamaica
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1139. pottery
Quoting ncstorm:
You got stuff coming off the east coast, stuff with the African wave train and then the caribbean..the ocean just looks a mess..



Yeah! Isnt it Lovely?
:):))
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
The evening news (Jamaica) says one death from this weather system. A fisherman whose canoe capsized. The other person was rescued. A few road blocked but not as bad as it could be.

Hopefully it goes away instead of strengthening
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Link

I starting to think 16.5N/77.5W is becoming the dominant center, really tightening up there, check link
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
1136. Patrap
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Quoting Mrsenseofhumor:


I agree with you, development with the feature west around 82w is likely to occur

what are you doing STOP PUTTING WORDS IN MY MOUTH WHY ARE YOU AGREEING TO SOMETHING YOU SAID I SAID THAT I DID NOT SAY
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1134. ncstorm
You got stuff coming off the east coast, stuff with the African wave train and then the caribbean..the ocean just looks a mess..


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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is June and things will not happen like they will later in the year. So do not try to predict as if it is July, August, September or October.
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1131. Patrap
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1130. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Most Recent Positions Regardless of Basin:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
05/2345 UTC 17.0N 80.2W TOO WEAK 94L -- Atlantic
05/2345 UTC 10.3N 98.7W T1.5/1.5 91E -- East Pacific
05/1745 UTC 16.9N 78.8W T1.0/1.0 94L -- Atlantic
05/1745 UTC 10.1N 98.9W T1.5/1.5 91E -- East Pacific
05/1145 UTC 15.7N 79.4W TOO WEAK 94L -- Atlantic
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52257
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1127. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
POSS T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/94L
MARK
17.11N/79.98W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52257
1126. Bitmap7
Quoting stormpetrol:
Just because the bright colors have faded with 94L doesn't mean its weakening, I think it has become more organized , much larger, and is also ventilating quite nicely, it just the cycles with convection, 94L is well on the way in my opinion to becoming the first named storm of the Atlantic 2011 H Season.


Which is why I can't believe 91E is 90%
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1125. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/91E
MARK
11.85N/101.3W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52257
1124. pottery
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good evening Pottery. It does look anemic right now but if I remember correctly it looked worse last night. I was shocked when I looked at it early this morning. I wouldn't give up on it just yet.

Not really giving up on it.
But it's going to take some Magic tonight to get it back to say 40% possible, like it was earlier.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
(UTC) Lat Lon mph (kts) in (mb) mph (kts)
0000 MON JUN 06 10.6N 98.2W NE 2 (2) 29.74 (1007) 29 (25)
1800 SUN JUN 05 10.5N 98.3W NE 2 (2) 29.77 (1008) 29 (25)
1200 SUN JUN 05 10.4N 98.4W N 3 (3) 29.77 (1008) 29 (25)
0600 SUN JUN 05 10.1N 98.4W SSW 3 (3) 29.77 (1008) 29 (25)
0000 SUN JUN 05 10.3N 98.3W W 2 (2) 29.77 (1008) 29 (25)
1800 SAT JUN 04 10.3N 98.1W N 1 (1) 29.77 (1008) 29 (25)
1200 SAT JUN 04 10.2N 98.1W N 1 (1) 29.8 (1009) 23 (20)
0600 SAT JUN 04 10.1N 98.1W N 1 (1) 29.8 (1009) 23 (20)
0000 SAT JUN 04 10.0N 98.1W W 1 (1) 29.8 (1009) 23 (20)
1800 FRI JUN 03 10.0N 98.0W - - 29.8 (1009) 23 (20)

i think this is going to be the first storm/hurricane 91E
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1121. Patrap
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Quoting pottery:

I thought that's what you meant.
OK, we will see how this all pans out around dawn.
If there is anything left by dawn....
Good evening Pottery. It does look anemic right now but if I remember correctly it looked worse last night. I was shocked when I looked at it early this morning. I wouldn't give up on it just yet.
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1119. pottery
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

what do you say what do you think about what I said

The way 94L is behaving, I would not be surprised at ANYTHING it does.
I keep seeing the LatLon as 17n80w (approx) currently, but my eye is falling on the MLC and I am seeing more apparent potential there.
So I understand where you are coming from.
But take it easy!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
Quoting pottery:

True, but the entire system has become weakened in the past 2-3 hours.
After showing some good potential briefly this evening.
Waxing and waning very rapidly.


The surface circulation definitely appears to still be very broad.
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Just because the bright colors have faded with 94L doesn't mean its weakening, I think it has become more organized , much larger, and is also ventilating quite nicely, it just the cycles with convection, 94L is well on the way in my opinion to becoming the first named storm of the Atlantic 2011 H Season.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
Quoting pottery:

I thought that's what you meant.
OK, we will see how this all pans out around dawn.
If there is anything left by dawn....

what do you say what do you think about what I said
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Quoting Levi32:


Different directions. Like I said, the satellite shows an elongated closed upper low with east, northeast, and northerly winds around it. The GFS shows a fully open trough with only northwest, west, and southwest winds.
Ohh gotcha.

Sorry man I haven't even been following/tracking weather for a whole year yet so it takes me a few minutes to figure these things out. I see where you are looking now, and you're right.
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1113. pottery
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I ment what I said under the MLC plus further analysis shows the 850 Vort is becoming weaker and becoming broad so that show the the current LLC is colapsing and the 700/500/200mb vort shows increase just south of Jamaica or right where the MLC is now not only that but now the MLC has 5-10kt shear over it the current LLC has 15-30kts over it lower convergence has also increased with that MLC all indication possible reformation of the LLC

I thought that's what you meant.
OK, we will see how this all pans out around dawn.
If there is anything left by dawn....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
1112. xcool

Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Quoting clwstmchasr:


I think a lot of people said that last year was going to be like 2004 and we all know what didn't happen.


Exactly, because trough after trough kept coming and steering storms away from the US.

This year, the A/B High is in position for more landfalls.
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1110. Patrap
00Z Hurricane Model Plots
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Quoting pottery:

Really?
Confirm that please Cayman.

I ment what I said under the MLC plus further analysis shows the 850 Vort is becoming weaker and becoming broad so that show the the current LLC is colapsing and the 700/500/200mb vort shows increase just south of Jamaica or right where the MLC is now not only that but now the MLC has 5-10kt shear over it the current LLC has 15-30kts over it lower convergence has also increased with that MLC all indication possible reformation of the LLC
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1108. pottery
Quoting KoritheMan:
I'm not seeing why some think the mid-level circulation is going to become dominant. It has recently become elongated and weakened, and also remains displaced to the southeast of the surface low:


True, but the entire system has become weakened in the past 2-3 hours.
After showing some good potential briefly this evening.
Waxing and waning very rapidly.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
Quoting aquak9:
Caneswatch- STP- I knew you were an awesome person.


Haha, thank you Aqua.
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1106. pottery
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

I have a feeling that's what earned it a too weak from the ssd.

Hmmm! Could be.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
I'm not seeing why some think the mid-level circulation is going to become dominant. It has recently become elongated and weakened, and also remains displaced to the southeast of the surface low:
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Quoting pottery:

Well it sure is looking a little anaemic around 17n 80w right now, where the LLC is officially placed.
Strange stuff.

I have a feeling that's what earned it a too weak from the ssd.
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00Z positions to "discuss"

AL 94 2011060600 BEST 0 169N 801W 25 1007 DB



From Dvorak

AL 94 201106052345 DVTS 1690N 8090W TAFB 1010 ///// T
AL 94 201106052345 DVTS 1700N 8020W SAB T DT=0.0 BO SHR MET=0.0 PT=0.0 FTBO DT PA=40 NMI
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1100. Levi32
Quoting TomTaylor:
ok. Well just so I can see what you were getting at, could you put it in simple terms? Were the barbs on the initialization in different directions, or were the barbs showing to strong of winds relative to the satellite observations?


Different directions. Like I said, the satellite shows an elongated closed upper low with east, northeast, and northerly winds around it. The GFS shows a fully open trough with only northwest, west, and southwest winds.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
1099. pottery
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I think this is going to happen it will reform under the MLC then we shall see an increase in convection and by sunrise convection should be blowing like nukes and if this continues then TD by 2pm or 8 pm

Well it sure is looking a little anaemic around 17n 80w right now, where the LLC is officially placed.
Strange stuff.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
1098. Levi32
Quoting beell:




Ok, I was looking at to the NE not from. My bad. Sat winds may be seeing the NE flow around the ridge whereas the model is not

There was also a weak disturbance moving along the LA coast today along the ridge with a little buckle at 500mb

All in all though. Not a big difference.


Yeah, it's not. I just try to pick up on those things because upper-level lows are one of those features that the models handle poorest, and that can have an influence on forecasts for tropical systems.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I think this is going to happen it will reform under the MLC then we shall see an increase in convection and by sunrise convection should be blowing like nukes and if this continues then TD by 2pm or 8 pm

One step at a time, let's see what happens with the circulations first.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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