Caribbean disturbance 94L dumping heavy rains on Jamaica

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:44 PM GMT on June 05, 2011

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A large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) continues to spread heavy rain to the Central Caribbean near Jamaica. Rain has fallen continuously at Jamaica's Kingston Norman Manley Airport since midnight, with 1.89" having fallen from midnight to noon local time. Sustained winds of 24 mph also affected Kingston between 7am and 8am this morning. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1.4" per hour occurred in ocean regions 100 miles to the southeast of Kingston this morning, and heavy rains of up to 1/2" per hour are probably affecting portions of Jamaica early this afternoon, judging by the recent increase in heavy thunderstorm activity seen on visible satellite loops. This imagery also shows a slow increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, with spiral bands beginning to develop to the southeast of the center. There is a broad, poorly-defined circulation apparent that is not well enough defined to make 94L a tropical depression. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air on the west side of 94L, and this dry air is interfering with the storm's organization. However, upper air balloon soundings from Kingston and the Cayman Islands taken at 8am EDT this morning show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere compared to Saturday (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 49% this morning at Grand Cayman), and 94L appears to be gradually overcoming its dry air issues. Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through Tuesday morning. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1.4" per hour (pink colors) were estimated by the F-15 satellite for 94L at 6:02am EDT Jun 5, 2011.

Since 94L is so large and is battling dry air, it is taking its sweet time to develop, and today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Monday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 06Z model runs are pretty unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. At 2pm EDT on Sunday, NHC gave the disturbance a 40% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. If 94L stays to the south, its chances of development are greater, since a band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The disturbance is expected to meander slowly westward or northward over the next two days, with Jamaica and southeastern Cuba being the primary targets for very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches through Tuesday. Haiti and Central Cuba can expect somewhat lesser rains of 3 - 6 inches. If 94L does develop into a tropical depression and moves northwards over Cuba by Wednesday, I don't see the storm attaining hurricane strength, due to the high wind shear. The primary threat from 94L will be very heavy rains, capable of causing life-threatening flash flooding.


Figure 2. Afternoon satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance 94L.

Jeff Masters

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does stormw still post here?
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 342
Quoting KoritheMan:


Bummer. You are a great asset to this blog. Did your laptop have a warranty of some kind?


Past warranty now unfortunately.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

which part the COC reformatiom or the anticyclone moving NE toward the MLC


Both, or else I wouldn't be saying 100%. LOL
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1244. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Unfortunately my laptop died (had smoke come out from it earlier) so I will have less access to blogging than I had before.
may be a faultly battery pak did ya take out the battery pac and check for cracks or leakage do not plug in laptop till you replace battery pak if its ruptured it may explode and cause a fire
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
FLdewey, you have been way off topic from the main discussion. Can you try to stay on topic please?
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Quoting tropicfreak:



Agree 100% wunder.

which part the COC reformatiom or the anticyclone moving NE toward the MLC
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
1241. xcool
cchsweatherman.damm that goting sux
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That new band on the NW quad is feeding into the LLC. Even the MLC is drifting west trying to catch up now it appears.

6-10 hours from now should be telling.

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys I took a break now back in action I just notice something the upper level anticyclone at 2100 and 0000 its now moving NE to the MLC I have a very strong feeling that we will get a COC reformation tonight



Agree 100% wunder.
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
Unfortunately my laptop died (had smoke come out from it earlier) so I will have less access to blogging than I had before.


Bummer. You are a great asset to this blog. Did your laptop have a warranty of some kind?
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Quoting FLdewey:

Nah... stopped watching Toronto years ago.
Now thats funny! I don't care who you are, thats funny.
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Quoting hurricane23:
The strong mid/upper level circ is displaced at least 100 nmi east of the LLCC. That is severe decoupling. Perhaps the M/U circ can bore down to the surface, but it isn't likely. My thinking is the 400 mb flow (still nwly at 12Z at Cayman) to turn easterly for about 12 hr or so on Monday afternoon and evening, which would allow for the two circs to become aligned before the mid to upper flow turns back swly north of 20N and  shears the system apart with the remnant LLCC moving nnwd just west of FL...which will FINALLY kick in the rainy season.

Adrian



Talk about the best case scenario, just west of FL with the peninsula receiving the eastern fetch. Perfect, dial it up....
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Unfortunately my laptop died (had smoke come out from it earlier) so I will have less access to blogging than I had before.
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i noted some in odd about 91E it seen like the low is this off too it W or E of it t-storms and not in the main part of the t-storms un less there is a other low next too it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
hey guys I took a break now back in action I just notice something the upper level anticyclone at 2100 and 0000 its now moving NE to the MLC I have a very strong feeling that we will get a COC reformation tonight
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
Quoting DARPAsockpuppet:
I don't know, but Chris Bosh sure is one ugly dude, they used to say Sam Cassel looked like E.T. and was the fugliest player ever, but Bosh may have something to say about that, especially tonight with his eye all swollen he looks like a character from Avatar.


Reported.
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Quoting pottery:

Plus, the outdoors is real Dangerous these days.
Tornados, Volcanic Dust, Floodwaters, Tsunamis, Beansprouts, Muggers, Drones, the works.
Stay in the Basement.
Worst part is there is WEATHER out there. Sun and breeze and stuff.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1230. JLPR2
Even with D-min structure, at least mid-upper level structure seems better, each D-max is more interesting with 94L.
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1229. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting FLdewey:

C'mon mang.... you know that was for you.


i know
but they like golf better play
every year since what 1960 something

lol
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
I agree reed, good bet that recon will find a closed surface circulation, if they go, which would likely happen, and I also agree on a TD forming tomorrow, I can sniff it in the air. LOL
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1226. emcf30
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Quoting 19N81W:
wow has 94l died out?


Not even close, it's just going through DMIN.
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Quoting 19N81W:
wow has 94l died out?


DMIN. Always expected for weak disturbances.
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1222. Patrap
...'sure as the dust, blows high in June, when Moving thru Kashmir'...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
1221. 19N81W
wow has 94l died out?
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

what are you doing STOP PUTTING WORDS IN MY MOUTH WHY ARE YOU AGREEING TO SOMETHING YOU SAID I SAID THAT I DID NOT SAY


He's a troll, ignore him.
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1218. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
The strong mid/upper level circ is displaced at least 100 nmi east of the LLCC. That is severe decoupling. Perhaps the M/U circ can bore down to the surface, but it isn't likely. My thinking is the 400 mb flow (still nwly at 12Z at Cayman) to turn easterly for about 12 hr or so on Monday afternoon and evening, which would allow for the two circs to become aligned before the mid to upper flow turns back swly north of 20N and  shears the system apart with the remnant LLCC moving nnwd just west of FL...which will FINALLY kick in the rainy season.

Adrian
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CosmicEvents:

Welcome neighbor.
And hey, I don't know skeet from skynola about tropical weather compared to many here, and they've let me get away with thousands of posts!
.
I add what I can.


Thank you Cosmic!

It's going to be fun interacting with the fellow bloggers this season after all these years of lurking! I feel like im late to the party bc I know so many of you from reading your posts and contributions over the years.

I've always had a passion for weather and it has been a pleasure over the years learning so much from the knowledgeable people who contribute to the blog.

This blog truly is a Mecca of sorts for weather enthusiasts!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1215. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting FLdewey:

Nah... stopped watching Toronto years ago.
thats once
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
1214. pottery
Quoting FLdewey:

LOL... of all of the things to take you out... BEAN SPROUTS.

Yeah, isnt that something?
I could have understood carrots and cucumbers, but BS's??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1213. Patrap


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
Quoting presslord:



we call it Roller Derby


Same here haha
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bappit:

Not enough money in hockey to support a WNHL. They play it in the Olympics I think, though.


They do. I believe the US won it last year.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


another poss dev area in BOC of the GOM


Their is something their just very hard to see
dont think its part of the ull in the gulf it's more North might be worth watching also
If you zoom in you can see it might be just me though



Link
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
1208. Levi32
Same kind of deal though with the upper divergence weighted east of the system, with sinking air in the NW Caribbean ahead of the surface low. The subtropical jet was aligned nearly identically.

pre-Alex:



Invest 94L:


Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Ya seen many women's hockey league games?



we call it Roller Derby
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1204. Levi32
Quoting Levi32:

Invest 93L 24 hours before becoming TD1; June 24th, 2010:



Invest 94L; June 5th, 2011:




Pre-Alex had more convection near the center, but the extension of upper divergence and convection well to the east of the center is similar with both systems.




The upper-level setup ahead of pre-Alex was also different, with an upper anticyclone over the Yucatan instead of an upper trough.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
1203. Patrap
94L Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
1202. pottery
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Should have never left the basement much less gone outdoors, happens every time.

Plus, the outdoors is real Dangerous these days.
Tornados, Volcanic Dust, Floodwaters, Tsunamis, Beansprouts, Muggers, Drones, the works.
Stay in the Basement.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DeerfieldBeachGuy:
Hello everyone its great to actually be posting on the blog...long time lurker here from Deerfield Beach, Florida...been a follower of the blog since 2004 and I told myself that this year I am going to be more proactive and actually contribute something to the blog

So it looks like D-Min has weakened the convection with 94L but its structure looks to be improving somewhat.

Stormpetrol,

I agree that after looking at the link you provided that a new LLC may be trying to form at 16.5/77.5

Convection looks to be wrapping around that area moreso than the circulation that was supposed to be further west.

Welcome neighbor.
And hey, I don't know skeet from skynola about tropical weather compared to many here, and they've let me get away with thousands of posts!
.
I add what I can.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1200. Levi32
Invest 93L 24 hours before becoming TD1; June 24th, 2010:



Invest 94L; June 5th, 2011:




Pre-Alex had more convection near the center, but the extension of upper divergence and convection well to the east of the center is similar with both systems.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
My apologies for the double post....I was trying to correct a gramitcal error...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
That huge ULL in the mid-atlantic and the subtropical jet keep sucking the life away from 94L; per the NHC if it does not get a real groove on by tommorow afternoon before upper level conditions deteriorate even more, it might be game over.....Now let's see what happens in Dallas tonight......... :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1197. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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