Caribbean disturbance 94L dumping heavy rains on Jamaica

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:44 PM GMT on June 05, 2011

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A large, wet, and disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) continues to spread heavy rain to the Central Caribbean near Jamaica. Rain has fallen continuously at Jamaica's Kingston Norman Manley Airport since midnight, with 1.89" having fallen from midnight to noon local time. Sustained winds of 24 mph also affected Kingston between 7am and 8am this morning. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts of 1.4" per hour occurred in ocean regions 100 miles to the southeast of Kingston this morning, and heavy rains of up to 1/2" per hour are probably affecting portions of Jamaica early this afternoon, judging by the recent increase in heavy thunderstorm activity seen on visible satellite loops. This imagery also shows a slow increase in organization of 94L in recent hours, with spiral bands beginning to develop to the southeast of the center. There is a broad, poorly-defined circulation apparent that is not well enough defined to make 94L a tropical depression. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air on the west side of 94L, and this dry air is interfering with the storm's organization. However, upper air balloon soundings from Kingston and the Cayman Islands taken at 8am EDT this morning show much moister air at mid levels of the atmosphere compared to Saturday (2% humidity at 500 mb on Saturday, compared to 49% this morning at Grand Cayman), and 94L appears to be gradually overcoming its dry air issues. Wind shear remains in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, and is predicted by the SHIPS model to remain below 20 knots through Tuesday morning. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Rainfall rates of up to 1.4" per hour (pink colors) were estimated by the F-15 satellite for 94L at 6:02am EDT Jun 5, 2011.

Since 94L is so large and is battling dry air, it is taking its sweet time to develop, and today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. A new mission is scheduled for Monday afternoon at 2pm EDT. This morning's 06Z model runs are pretty unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. At 2pm EDT on Sunday, NHC gave the disturbance a 40% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. If 94L stays to the south, its chances of development are greater, since a band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The disturbance is expected to meander slowly westward or northward over the next two days, with Jamaica and southeastern Cuba being the primary targets for very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches through Tuesday. Haiti and Central Cuba can expect somewhat lesser rains of 3 - 6 inches. If 94L does develop into a tropical depression and moves northwards over Cuba by Wednesday, I don't see the storm attaining hurricane strength, due to the high wind shear. The primary threat from 94L will be very heavy rains, capable of causing life-threatening flash flooding.


Figure 2. Afternoon satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance 94L.

Jeff Masters

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Anything else to watch besides 94L and 91E?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Where's Storm?

In Ocean.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting sammywammybamy:
New Convection Firing :



Nice spinning though. Will be a TD soon enough.
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Widespread flooding in eastern Jamaica

Link
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On the subject of irritating systems, I would much rather track large monsoonal systems like this one than ones with erratic motions, ala Fay in 2008.
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94L has lost a lot of it's "bulk" that was to the south and SE.
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Quoting Bitmap7:
I must admit tracking 94l is now becoming quite aggravating >(. What is it now two/three weeks of blowing up and sputtering. This might go down as the most frustrating system I have ever tracked. That behemoth, half baked excuse of an invest had better get its act together soon.


Alex last year, for me, was the most irriating.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Banned, end of story.


Where's Storm?
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1289. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting RukusBoondocks:
Just spent $820 on hurricane supplies. Im really taking 94 seriously
thats good if 94 becomes nothing at least you will be ready for the rest of the season after all its only day 5
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Quoting Bitmap7:
I must admit tracking 94l is now becoming quite aggravating >(. What is it now two/three weeks of blowing up and sputtering. This might go down as the most frustrating system I have ever tracked. That behemoth, half baked excuse of an invest had better get its act together soon.


Except for Ernesto.
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
Unfortunately my laptop died (had smoke come out from it earlier) so I will have less access to blogging than I had before.



time to buy a new one try geting a mac pro or a new PC with window 7
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Just spent $820 on hurricane supplies. Im really taking 94 seriously
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Quoting cg2916:
How do you tell what's feeding the MLC and what's feeding the LLC.
Usually through observation of wrap around effects on satellite imagery.
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Quoting hurricane23:
...which will FINALLY kick in the rainy season.

Adrian


I've always liked your posts. Reasonable, understandable and factual. We just don't see as many as we used to. But THANKS.. Looking forward to some rain.
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Everyone needs to calm down... humor is needed. 94L is not skyrocketing anywhere. There is only so much to talk about.
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1281. Bitmap7
I must admit tracking 94l is now becoming quite aggravating >(. What is it now two/three weeks of blowing up and sputtering. This might go down as the most frustrating system I have ever tracked. That behemoth, half baked excuse of an invest had better get its act together soon.
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Quoting Abacosurf:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html

Looks like a 14 year old with bad acne in the last frame....LOL
Going through that awkward adolescent phase...
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Quoting cg2916:
How do you tell what's feeding the MLC and what's feeding the LLC.
You look at their mother...how else??
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html

Looks like a 14 year old with bad acne in the last frame....LOL
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1275. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting PcolaDan:


Do you ever leave your house? :)

edit: or sleep for that matter lol
actually they are not mine one is for my son the other is for the wife and the phone is for me at work and desk top is for when iam not at work

o and my work is my home my home is my work

iam always home always at work

iam even at work right now on call for emer. only
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1274. cg2916
How do you tell what's feeding the MLC and what's feeding the LLC.
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Quoting KoritheMan:

Which is a big change from yesterday. It appears that the ambient dry air may finally be lessening.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

the LLC is becoming weaker and weaker soon to disipate and the MLC is becoming better and possibly a new LLC redeveloping underneath
The MLC is now SW of Jamaica. It has shifted west by 100 plus miles in the past 10 hours. Probably more.

It has caught the LLC. They are aligning as we speak.
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Convection is blowing up again S of jamaica
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1271. cg2916
Convection burst in the SE of 94L.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
cchs if motherboard is fried may as well get a brand new laptop

i just got a nice one toshiba with satellite pro c650/c650d internet connection with windows 7 and i have a second one coming this week in all i will have two laptops a desktop and a HTC HD7 windows smart phone as well


Do you ever leave your house? :)

edit: or sleep for that matter lol
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Humor impaired. Terrible affliction.


Seems a couple of people got up on the wrong side of the bed this morning, that grumpy side.

Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
gulfscout, nope
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

the LLC is becoming weaker and weaker soon to disipate and the MLC is becoming better and possibly a new LLC redeveloping underneath


A lot of interesting things will be happening tonight with 94L. With the new LLC forming, and the increase in organization, I wouldn't be surprised if I came home from school to TD 1 (I get home at 2pm)
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
1266. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
cchs if motherboard is fried may as well get a brand new laptop

i just got a nice one toshiba with satellite pro c650/c650d internet connection with windows 7 and i have a second one coming this week in all i will have two laptops a desktop and a HTC HD7 windows smart phone as well
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Quoting PcolaDan:
Blog police has a lot of reporting to do, some of them old timers too.
Humor impaired. Terrible affliction.
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1264. xcool
here come Blog police Blog police ooh boy
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Quoting DARPAsockpuppet:


Please stop posting random stuff that is off topic.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

I agree, have only looked at a still, but it seems that the MLC is becoming the main attraction.

the LLC is becoming weaker and weaker soon to disipate and the MLC is becoming better and possibly a new LLC redeveloping underneath
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Blog police has a lot of reporting to do, some of them old timers too.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting gulfscout:
does stormw still post here?


Banned, end of story.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Unfortunately my laptop died (had smoke come out from it earlier) so I will have less access to blogging than I had before.
Had a boss tell me once that once you let the smoke out of something, unless you caught it all, every little bit, and it wasn't going to work right again. That was after I told him there was smoke coming out of the motor of a machine I was supposed to be running. Then he asked I if I wanted to catch the smoke or have something else to do.

Sorry to hear about your computer. Always appreciate your posts.
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1256. cg2916
On the AVN, I can see two things.

1.

DMIN has affected 94L, but only a little.

2.

There is a spin going on.
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Quoting Abacosurf:
That new band on the NW quad is feeding into the LLC.

Which is a big change from yesterday. It appears that the ambient dry air may finally be lessening.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Both, or else I wouldn't be saying 100%. LOL

ok then thank you
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I just looked at it and that NW band is not feeding into the weak LLC near 80W its feeding into the MLC

I agree, have only looked at a still, but it seems that the MLC is becoming the main attraction.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
may be a faultly battery pak did ya take out the battery pac and check for cracks or leakage do not plug in laptop till you replace battery pak if its ruptured it may explode and cause a fire


Already went through that. Its the motherboard thats fried.
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Quoting Abacosurf:
That new band on the NW quad is feeding into the LLC. Even the MLC is drifting west trying to catch up now it appears.

6-10 hours from now should be telling.


I just looked at it and that NW band is not feeding into the weak LLC near 80W its feeding into the MLC
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19N81W, if you can notice the last images of the loop on 94L the convection is bursting again.
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does stormw still post here?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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