Caribbean disturbance slow to develop; 5 EF-5 tornadoes this year confirmed

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:33 PM GMT on June 03, 2011

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The tropical disturbance (Invest 93L) that crossed over Florida on Wednesday, bringing welcome rains of 1 - 3 inches, is now a naked swirl of low clouds over the central Gulf of Mexico. The disturbance is embedded in a large area of dry air associated with an upper level low pressure system, and this dry air is discouraging development. 93L is also moving into a region of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and NHC is giving 93L a 0% chance of developing into a tropical depression before the storm makes landfall in Mexico south of Brownsville on Saturday. There are a few heavy thunderstorms trying to fire up near the center of 93L's fairly well-formed circulation, but I don't think this storm is going to bring more than 1 - 2 inches of rain to the coast on Saturday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance.

Central Caribbean disturbance 94L
Disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity continues in the region between Central America and Jamaica. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and is predicted to continue to fall over the next two days. This should allow the disturbance, dubbed Invest 94L by NHC on Friday afternoon, to increase in organization, though it will take many days for it to approach tropical depression status, since it is so large and poorly organized. The last two runs of the NOGAPS model have developed the disturbance into a tropical depression or storm by early next week, with the system moving northwards into Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and eastern Cuba. The other major models do not show the disturbance developing during the coming week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. A surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave may aid development when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Sunday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Residents of Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them today through Sunday.

Five EF-5 tornadoes confirmed in 2011
The National Weather Service in Oklahoma City announced Wednesday that the violent tornado that hit Binger, El Reno, Peidmont, and Guthrie, Oklahoma on May 24, killing nine people, was an EF-5 with winds greater than 210 mph. The rating was given based on measurements made by a University of Oklahoma portable "Doppler on wheels" radar. The long track, large wedge tornado caused extensive damage, with well built houses cleanly swept from their foundation and trees debarked. This tornado brings the total number of EF-5 tornadoes this year to five, tying 2011 with 1953 for 2nd place for greatest number of these top-end tornadoes in one year. Only 1974 (six) had more. The EF-5 tornadoes of 2011:

1) The April 27, 2011 Neshoba/Kemper/Winston/Noxubee Counties, Mississippi tornado (3 killed, 29 mile path length.)

2) The April 27, 2011 Smithville, Mississippi tornado (22 killed, 15 mile path length.)

3) The April 27, 2011 Hackleburg, Alabama tornado (71 killed, 25 mile path length.)

4) The May 22, 2011 Joplin Missouri tornado (138 killed, 14 mile path length.)

5) The May 24, 2011 Binger-El Reno-Peidmont-Guthrie, Oklahoma tornado. (9 killed, 75 mile path length.)


Figure 2. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.

A few other remarkable statistics on the tornado season of 2011, compiled from NOAA's official press release and Wikipedia's excellent tornado pages:

- The April 25 - 28 tornado outbreak, with 330 tornadoes, was the largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record. The previous record was 148 tornadoes, set during the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak.

- For April 27, 186 tornadoes have been confirmed. This is the largest 1-day tornado total on record, beating the 148 recorded in 24 hours on April 3 - 4, 1974.

- The April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak, with 162 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the fourth largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record.

- The May 21 - 26 tornado outbreak, with 158 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the 5th largest 6-day or shorter tornado outbreak on record. A May 2003 6-day outbreak had 289 tornadoes, and a May 2004 6-day outbreak had 229 tornadoes. The year 2011 now has three of the top five tornado outbreaks on record.

- April confirmed tornado total was 683, making it the busiest tornado month on record. The previous record was 542 tornadoes, set in May 2003. The previous April record was 267 tornadoes, which occurred in April 1974. The 30-year average for April tornadoes is 135.

- If the three deaths in Massachusetts from Wednesday's tornadoes are confirmed, this year's tornado death toll will be 522, beating 1953 as the deadliest tornado year since modern tornado records began. That year, 519 people died, and three heavily populated cities received direct hits by violent tornadoes. Waco, Texas (114 killed), Flint, Michigan (115 killed), and Worcester, Massachusetts (90 killed) all were hit by violent F-4 or F-5 tornadoes. A similar bad tornado year occurred in 1936, when violent tornadoes hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.) During that time period, the tornado death rate per million people was 60 - 70 times as great as in the year 2000 (Figure 4), implying that this year's tornadoes would have killed many thousands of people had we not had our modern tornado modern warning system.

- The May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado killed 138 people and injured 1150, making it the deadliest U.S. tornado since 1947, and 8th deadliest in history. The $1 - $3 billion estimate of insured damage makes it the most expensive tornado in history.

- Damage from the April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak was estimated at $3.5 - $6 billion, making it the most expensive tornado outbreak of all-time.

- The tornado that hit Springfield, Massachusetts on June 1 was at least an EF-3 with 136 - 165 mph winds. It was only the 9th EF-3 or stronger tornado to hit Massachusetts since 1950, and the third deadliest, with three deaths.

- The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965 for highest number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4, and EF-5 tornadoes (Figure 3.)


Figure 3. Number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of these most dangerous of tornadoes. Image credit: NOAA/National Climatic Data Center (updated using stats for 2008 - 2011 from Wikipedia.)


Figure 4. Death rate per million people per year in U.S., 1875-2000. Thin line with dots is raw rate, curved thick line is death rate, filtered by 3-point median and 5-point running mean filter, and straight solid lines are least squares fit to filtered death rate for 1875-1925 and 1925-2000. Dashed lines are estimates of 10th and 90th percentile death rates from 1925-2000. The death rate fell from 8 per million to .12 per million between 1940 and 2000. Image credit: A Brief History of Deaths from Tornadoes in the United States, Harold Brooks and Charles Doswell III.

Joplin tornado the 7th U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster of 2011
The Joplin tornado is the 7th U.S. weather disaster of 2011 costing more than a billion dollars. With a major flooding disaster coming on the Missouri River, and hurricane season still to come, 2011 has an excellent chance of beating 2008's record of nine billion-dollar weather disasters. The billion dollar weather disasters of 2011 so far:

1) 2011 Groundhog Day's blizzard ($1- $4 billion)
2) April 3 -5 Southeast U.S. severe weather outbreak ($2 billion)
3) April 8 - 11 severe weather outbreak ($2.25 billion)
4) April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak ($3.5 - $6 billion)
5) Mississippi River flood of 2011 ($9 billion)
6) Texas drought ($1.2 billion)
7) Joplin tornado ($1 - $3 billion)


Figure 5. River flood outlook for the U.S. Image credit: NOAA.

The next U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster: a Missouri River flood?
A great 100-year flood has arrived along the Missouri River and its tributaries from Montana to Nebraska. Record spring rains, combined with snow melt from record or near-record winter and spring snows, brought the Missouri River at Williston, North Dakota to 27.9' yesterday, just an inch short of the highest crest on record (28.0' on 4/01/1912.) Tributaries to the Missouri, such as the Souris River in North Dakota and the North Platte River in Nebraska, are already flooding at all-time record heights. With warm summer temperatures and additional rainfall expected over much of the area during the coming week, snow melt and rain runoff will swell area rivers even further, creating a damaging 100-year flood. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has the details in his latest post, and I will be writing more on this latest epic flood next week.

I'll have a new post on Monday, or earlier if the Caribbean disturbance shows significant development.

Jeff Masters

Joplin Tornado Damage (thebige)
Joplin Tornado Damage
And Bigger.... (weatherfanatic2010)
Here it is turning into a monster.
And Bigger....

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3724. mikeylikesyouall
8:33 PM GMT on August 25, 2011
That guy on the news wanted to stay behind on that island in the outer banks of N Carolina cannot be wright in head.Look i can understand wanting to protect your property but that island may not even be there after Irene gets through there.Dam ill even apply for a working visa to the states hop on a plane get the scematics to the house and volunteeer to help rebuild it for free, but at least he would still be alive to fight another day geez. Sigh i don't understand some people.
Member Since: May 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 91
3723. Patrap
3:39 AM GMT on June 08, 2011
skyepony,

NEXSAT Night IR
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
3722. HurricaneHunterJoe
11:38 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
nice pic circulation seen nicely ssw of west jamaica looks like a little dry air on west side? and t storms on 3 sides
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5237
3721. HurricaneHunterJoe
11:33 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
good evening all
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5237
3720. Chicklit
10:50 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
COC 17N 77W?
LinkLoop

Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11389
3719. IKE
5:49 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
"""SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE
DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WINDS IN
THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BRIEFLY BECOME SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT.."""......

Good luck 94L....bring us some rain.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
3718. Sadek22
4:56 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
More detalis I want :PFree counters!Free counters!Free counters!Free counters!Free counters!Free counters!
free countersfree counters Free counters!

Free counters!Free counters!Free counters!Free counters!Free counters!Free counters!
Member Since: March 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 20
3717. hurricaneben
4:52 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
Quoting washingtonian115:
I knew this was gonna happen with some of the bloggers.I can't stress enough that these types of systems take days to develope.Remember Alex?.And their was a few other storms.


Wasn't Dolly also like that?
Member Since: May 15, 2009 Posts: 421 Comments: 679
3716. sammywammybamy
4:50 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
Quoting sammywammybamy:
NEW BLOG!!!! NEW BLOG!!!
Member Since: June 17, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 5010
3715. BahaHurican
4:49 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
Quoting Abacosurf:
Looks like the LLC is just south of west Jamaica not far from the new blowup of convection.

Nice outflow. Nice convergence. Minimal shear. High pressure aloft close to overhead. Dry air being replaced by more moist air from 3 quadrants....Geez what more do you want....lol
Rain???
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22563
3714. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:48 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
3713. SouthALWX
4:47 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
78.2W 17.5N would be my guess. Still a bit broad.
Member Since: August 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497
3712. Stormchaser2007
4:47 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
Any visible turning is in the mid-levels.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
3711. PcolaDan
4:47 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, it is. At least someone is taking me seriously on the weather instead of just laughing at my jokes. Thanks fm. LOL The main convectin will HAVE to occur to the SE of Jamaica, especially if the cirrus outflow is as strong as it appears. A circulation may be trying to form, but it appears to be very mid-level and not a surface low at this time.


FINE!!!!! Be that way. We won't laugh at your jokes any more.

;)
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
3710. AllStar17
4:47 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, it is. At least someone is taking me seriously on the weather instead of just laughing at my jokes. Thanks fm. LOL The main convectin will HAVE to occur to the SE of Jamaica, especially if the cirrus outflow is as strong as it appears. A circulation may be trying to form, but it appears to be very mid-level and not a surface low at this time.



Yes, but continued thunderstorm activity could bring it to the surface.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
3709. sammywammybamy
4:47 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
NEW BLOG!!!! NEW BLOG!!!
Member Since: June 17, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 5010
3708. washingtonian115
4:46 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
Quoting scott39:
For now I see a whop-sided Invest! 94L needs more time to Bake.
Was that a reference to my comment on "It looks like a big blowup of bread"
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17480
3707. ElConando
4:45 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Also depends what part of Florida. The further south geographically the more northern phonetically. East-west matters too. Probably ought to refer to the area as "The Floridas"


And in S Fla the abbreviated version "finna", is used more often.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3774
3706. Grothar
4:44 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
Quoting fmhurricane2009:


Gro, it looks like your right, see post 3680, I looked at the animation and it looks like an overshooting top, but it is growing in aerial coverage. Is that the burst you were talking about?
FM


Yes, it is. At least someone is taking me seriously on the weather instead of just laughing at my jokes. Thanks fm. LOL The main convectin will HAVE to occur to the SE of Jamaica, especially if the cirrus outflow is as strong as it appears. A circulation may be trying to form, but it appears to be very mid-level and not a surface low at this time.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26828
3705. PcolaDan
4:42 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
Ash from the volcano in Chile

Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
3704. stormpetrol
4:42 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
I think the LLC is at 17N/79W, clear spin on visible
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8001
3703. sammywammybamy
4:42 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
Quoting FLdewey:
*facepalm* for the Katrina reference.

I think I'll go do some yardwork... das blog should be a zoo tonight. I'll bring the popcorn - Aqua you bring the drinks.


What should i Bring?
Member Since: June 17, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 5010
3702. scott39
4:40 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
Quoting PcolaDan:


There's a joke in there somewhere.......
HeHe
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6886
3701. stormwatcherCI
4:40 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
Quoting PcolaDan:


I think this new Ike is an impostor. A yankee transplant to the South. ;)
:) I was beginning to think I was on the wrong blog.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8424
3700. ShenValleyFlyFish
4:40 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
Quoting presslord:
it's either fixin' or afixin'...no 'g'
Also depends what part of Florida. The further south geographically the more northern phonetically. East-west matters too. Probably ought to refer to the area as "The Floridas"
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
3699. sammywammybamy
4:40 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
Quoting emcf30:


Yep, once the low gets totally under the high,the thunderstorms will become more symmetrical around the low. We should then see a TD form. We will have a couple of days before the mid level shear starts to pick up.


40-50% at the Next TWO
Member Since: June 17, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 5010
3698. SouthALWX
4:39 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
most interesting to me, will be what happens when the wave south of Hispaniola crashes in.... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis-s.ht ml
Member Since: August 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497
3697. MiamiHurricanes09
4:39 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
That spin that we see within the convective mass appears to be in the mid-levels. The lower-level cloud deck is rotating further west. Notice on visible how there is no outflow going into the convective mass from the west to east.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
3696. aquak9
4:38 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
Quoting AllStar17:
Too bad there isn't any Hurricane Hunter data to give us the real story.

+1000!!
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 171 Comments: 26253
3695. PcolaDan
4:38 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
Quoting scott39:
For now I see a whop-sided Invest! 94L needs more time to Bake.


There's a joke in there somewhere.......
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
3694. IKE
4:38 PM GMT on June 05, 2011

Quoting Grothar:


Isn't that afixing?
lol
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
3693. FLdewey
4:37 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
*facepalm* for the Katrina reference.

I think I'll go do some yardwork... das blog should be a zoo tonight. I'll bring the popcorn - Aqua you bring the drinks.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 42 Comments: 6269
3692. WeatherNerdPR
4:37 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
Quoting Stormchaser2007:

94L is looking great!
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
3691. PcolaDan
4:37 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
Quoting presslord:
it's either fixin' or afixin'...no 'g'


I think this new Ike is an impostor. A yankee transplant to the South. ;)
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
3690. fmhurricane2009
4:36 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
Quoting Grothar:


If there is a spin, that would indicate that the main ball of convection we now see will start to split apart. As energy starts pulling in one direction, it removes the energy on the weakest part. I would not be surprise to see two separate areas starting. However, I still maintain that the main burst will occur to the immediate SE of Jamaica.


Gro, it looks like your right, see post 3680, I looked at the animation and it looks like an overshooting top, but it is growing in aerial coverage. Is that the burst you were talking about?
FM
Member Since: August 15, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 220
3689. FLdewey
4:36 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
It's starting to take on the general shape of a tropical system... cue the experts.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 42 Comments: 6269
3688. scott39
4:36 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
For now I see a whop-sided Invest! 94L needs more time to Bake.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6886
3687. emcf30
4:36 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
Quoting Abacosurf:
Looks like the LLC is just south of west Jamaica not far from the new blowup of convection.

Nice outflow. Nice convergence. Minimal shear. High pressure aloft close to overhead. Dry air being replaced by more moist air from 3 quadrants....Geez what more do you want....lol


Yep, once the low gets totally under the high,the thunderstorms will become more symmetrical around the low. We should then see a TD form. We will have a couple of days before the mid level shear starts to pick up.
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1951
3686. Waltanater
4:35 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
Quoting AllStar17:
Is it an illusion or is there a spin in the thunderstorms?
Link
There is definite spin! This thing 'wants' to get its act together. Reminds me of how Hurr. Katrina first formed.
Member Since: May 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1472
3685. SouthALWX
4:35 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
well, I don't think a new LLC makes sense here. The current one, wherever it actually is ( I think on the western edge of convection) , will be dominant as you can see the curvature of the low clouds indicating that the current LLC has significantly lower pressures than anywhere else. Low cumulus on visible is really giving us a good look at this, especially on the SW quadrant.
Member Since: August 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497
3684. AllStar17
4:35 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
Too bad there isn't any Hurricane Hunter data to give us the real story.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
3683. Stormchaser2007
4:35 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
3682. Patrap
4:34 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
94L Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
3681. FLdewey
4:33 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
Quoting aquak9:


why can't we just have a normal day, huh??

As Ralph Wiggum would say... it's unpossible.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 42 Comments: 6269
3680. Patrap
4:32 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
3679. aquak9
4:32 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
Quoting FLdewey:
Dun duh DUNNNNNN....


why can't we just have a normal day, huh??
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 171 Comments: 26253
3678. Grothar
4:32 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
Quoting IKE:

I see a spin too. I was just fixing to comment.


If there is a spin, that would indicate that the main ball of convection we now see will start to split apart. As energy starts pulling in one direction, it removes the energy on the weakest part. I would not be surprise to see two separate areas starting. However, I still maintain that the main burst will occur to the immediate SE of Jamaica.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26828
3677. Abacosurf
4:31 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
Looks like the LLC is just south of west Jamaica not far from the new blowup of convection.

Nice outflow. Nice convergence. Minimal shear. High pressure aloft close to overhead. Dry air being replaced by more moist air from 3 quadrants....Geez what more do you want....lol
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 469
3676. presslord
4:30 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
it's either fixin' or afixin'...no 'g'
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
3675. washingtonian115
4:30 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
Quoting SouthALWX:
yes, I see the spinning as well. As I commented above, looks like the LLC is just barely tucked into the westernmost convection.
Their is a possibility that another low could form under that convection.Just say'in....it IS a possibility.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17480
3674. Sadek22
4:30 PM GMT on June 05, 2011
I like it :PFree counters!Free counters!Free counters!Free counters!Free counters!Free counters!
free countersfree counters Free counters!

Free counters!Free counters!Free counters!Free counters!Free counters!Free counters!
Member Since: March 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 20

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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