Caribbean disturbance slow to develop; 5 EF-5 tornadoes this year confirmed

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:33 PM GMT on June 03, 2011

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The tropical disturbance (Invest 93L) that crossed over Florida on Wednesday, bringing welcome rains of 1 - 3 inches, is now a naked swirl of low clouds over the central Gulf of Mexico. The disturbance is embedded in a large area of dry air associated with an upper level low pressure system, and this dry air is discouraging development. 93L is also moving into a region of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and NHC is giving 93L a 0% chance of developing into a tropical depression before the storm makes landfall in Mexico south of Brownsville on Saturday. There are a few heavy thunderstorms trying to fire up near the center of 93L's fairly well-formed circulation, but I don't think this storm is going to bring more than 1 - 2 inches of rain to the coast on Saturday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance.

Central Caribbean disturbance 94L
Disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity continues in the region between Central America and Jamaica. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and is predicted to continue to fall over the next two days. This should allow the disturbance, dubbed Invest 94L by NHC on Friday afternoon, to increase in organization, though it will take many days for it to approach tropical depression status, since it is so large and poorly organized. The last two runs of the NOGAPS model have developed the disturbance into a tropical depression or storm by early next week, with the system moving northwards into Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and eastern Cuba. The other major models do not show the disturbance developing during the coming week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. A surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave may aid development when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Sunday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Residents of Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them today through Sunday.

Five EF-5 tornadoes confirmed in 2011
The National Weather Service in Oklahoma City announced Wednesday that the violent tornado that hit Binger, El Reno, Peidmont, and Guthrie, Oklahoma on May 24, killing nine people, was an EF-5 with winds greater than 210 mph. The rating was given based on measurements made by a University of Oklahoma portable "Doppler on wheels" radar. The long track, large wedge tornado caused extensive damage, with well built houses cleanly swept from their foundation and trees debarked. This tornado brings the total number of EF-5 tornadoes this year to five, tying 2011 with 1953 for 2nd place for greatest number of these top-end tornadoes in one year. Only 1974 (six) had more. The EF-5 tornadoes of 2011:

1) The April 27, 2011 Neshoba/Kemper/Winston/Noxubee Counties, Mississippi tornado (3 killed, 29 mile path length.)

2) The April 27, 2011 Smithville, Mississippi tornado (22 killed, 15 mile path length.)

3) The April 27, 2011 Hackleburg, Alabama tornado (71 killed, 25 mile path length.)

4) The May 22, 2011 Joplin Missouri tornado (138 killed, 14 mile path length.)

5) The May 24, 2011 Binger-El Reno-Peidmont-Guthrie, Oklahoma tornado. (9 killed, 75 mile path length.)


Figure 2. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.

A few other remarkable statistics on the tornado season of 2011, compiled from NOAA's official press release and Wikipedia's excellent tornado pages:

- The April 25 - 28 tornado outbreak, with 330 tornadoes, was the largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record. The previous record was 148 tornadoes, set during the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak.

- For April 27, 186 tornadoes have been confirmed. This is the largest 1-day tornado total on record, beating the 148 recorded in 24 hours on April 3 - 4, 1974.

- The April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak, with 162 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the fourth largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record.

- The May 21 - 26 tornado outbreak, with 158 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the 5th largest 6-day or shorter tornado outbreak on record. A May 2003 6-day outbreak had 289 tornadoes, and a May 2004 6-day outbreak had 229 tornadoes. The year 2011 now has three of the top five tornado outbreaks on record.

- April confirmed tornado total was 683, making it the busiest tornado month on record. The previous record was 542 tornadoes, set in May 2003. The previous April record was 267 tornadoes, which occurred in April 1974. The 30-year average for April tornadoes is 135.

- If the three deaths in Massachusetts from Wednesday's tornadoes are confirmed, this year's tornado death toll will be 522, beating 1953 as the deadliest tornado year since modern tornado records began. That year, 519 people died, and three heavily populated cities received direct hits by violent tornadoes. Waco, Texas (114 killed), Flint, Michigan (115 killed), and Worcester, Massachusetts (90 killed) all were hit by violent F-4 or F-5 tornadoes. A similar bad tornado year occurred in 1936, when violent tornadoes hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.) During that time period, the tornado death rate per million people was 60 - 70 times as great as in the year 2000 (Figure 4), implying that this year's tornadoes would have killed many thousands of people had we not had our modern tornado modern warning system.

- The May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado killed 138 people and injured 1150, making it the deadliest U.S. tornado since 1947, and 8th deadliest in history. The $1 - $3 billion estimate of insured damage makes it the most expensive tornado in history.

- Damage from the April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak was estimated at $3.5 - $6 billion, making it the most expensive tornado outbreak of all-time.

- The tornado that hit Springfield, Massachusetts on June 1 was at least an EF-3 with 136 - 165 mph winds. It was only the 9th EF-3 or stronger tornado to hit Massachusetts since 1950, and the third deadliest, with three deaths.

- The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965 for highest number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4, and EF-5 tornadoes (Figure 3.)


Figure 3. Number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of these most dangerous of tornadoes. Image credit: NOAA/National Climatic Data Center (updated using stats for 2008 - 2011 from Wikipedia.)


Figure 4. Death rate per million people per year in U.S., 1875-2000. Thin line with dots is raw rate, curved thick line is death rate, filtered by 3-point median and 5-point running mean filter, and straight solid lines are least squares fit to filtered death rate for 1875-1925 and 1925-2000. Dashed lines are estimates of 10th and 90th percentile death rates from 1925-2000. The death rate fell from 8 per million to .12 per million between 1940 and 2000. Image credit: A Brief History of Deaths from Tornadoes in the United States, Harold Brooks and Charles Doswell III.

Joplin tornado the 7th U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster of 2011
The Joplin tornado is the 7th U.S. weather disaster of 2011 costing more than a billion dollars. With a major flooding disaster coming on the Missouri River, and hurricane season still to come, 2011 has an excellent chance of beating 2008's record of nine billion-dollar weather disasters. The billion dollar weather disasters of 2011 so far:

1) 2011 Groundhog Day's blizzard ($1- $4 billion)
2) April 3 -5 Southeast U.S. severe weather outbreak ($2 billion)
3) April 8 - 11 severe weather outbreak ($2.25 billion)
4) April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak ($3.5 - $6 billion)
5) Mississippi River flood of 2011 ($9 billion)
6) Texas drought ($1.2 billion)
7) Joplin tornado ($1 - $3 billion)


Figure 5. River flood outlook for the U.S. Image credit: NOAA.

The next U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster: a Missouri River flood?
A great 100-year flood has arrived along the Missouri River and its tributaries from Montana to Nebraska. Record spring rains, combined with snow melt from record or near-record winter and spring snows, brought the Missouri River at Williston, North Dakota to 27.9' yesterday, just an inch short of the highest crest on record (28.0' on 4/01/1912.) Tributaries to the Missouri, such as the Souris River in North Dakota and the North Platte River in Nebraska, are already flooding at all-time record heights. With warm summer temperatures and additional rainfall expected over much of the area during the coming week, snow melt and rain runoff will swell area rivers even further, creating a damaging 100-year flood. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has the details in his latest post, and I will be writing more on this latest epic flood next week.

I'll have a new post on Monday, or earlier if the Caribbean disturbance shows significant development.

Jeff Masters

Joplin Tornado Damage (thebige)
Joplin Tornado Damage
And Bigger.... (weatherfanatic2010)
Here it is turning into a monster.
And Bigger....

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Quoting pressureman:
The tropics are very quiet on the 3rd day of june im happy to report...I dont see anything that could give anyone problems for at least the next 10 days..So everyone can breathe a sigh of relief for the moment...I for one know BOB BRECK is very happy with this...BOB you are doing a find job keep up the good work you and your staff...

The AOI in the Caribbean CLEARLY has a chance for developing.Conditions maybe aren't good for now,but they're improving and I think in next week we'll se TD One somewhere in the Caribbean
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73. IKE

Quoting aquak9:
The Original StormTop was here before me. I was here, before most of ya'll.

I was here the moment he returned after Katrina.

I think I know him better than most anyone here right now. Still not sure yet.
If I'm wrong I'm sorry. Just seems like his style. No biggie. I think.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
The Original StormTop was here before me. I was here, before most of ya'll.

I was here the moment he returned after Katrina.

I think I know him better than most anyone here right now. Still not sure yet.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 165 Comments: 25867
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127949
69. IKE

Quoting aquak9:
I'm not convinced it's StormTop. It could go either way at this point.
Based on? The ridge pumping?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
...as the Blog Turns will return,...

after the monomania break,,

LoL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127949
Quoting NRAamy:
can't be stormtop.... it's not in all caps....
or quoting the FLUSH model.
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I'm not convinced it's StormTop. It could go either way at this point.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 165 Comments: 25867
65. IKE

Quoting NRAamy:
can't be stormtop.... it's not in all caps....
It's usually all lower case with no caps. There is another one that does post in all caps.

Welcome back tacoman.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
can't be stormtop.... it's not in all caps....
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So with the flood situation on the Missouri... What would it take to create a flood basin along the river (and the Miss.. too) which could attach to aqueducts leading to drought prone areas in the South and TX?
We are spending soooooo much money on god knows what these days... There has to be a way of logically harnessing this tremendously valuable resource (fresh water) before it hits the Gulf of Mexico..
Seeing all that water sitting just sitting around waiting to evaporate is ridiculous.. In a few years when water starts getting expensive we are gonna hate that we let all this go to waste..
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Under pressure
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127949
60. IKE
Quoting Hurrykane:


Stormtop?
Winner!

................................................. .................................................. ..

Day 6 GFS....


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Neapolitan:
With much of the mountain west expected to climb into the upper 80s this weekend, those record and near-record snowfalls are going to start melting PDQ, and that's--obviously--gonna make an ever bigger mess so far as Missouri flooding is concerned, as many areas still covered with 10 feet or more of packed and settled snow.

Yikes...
man o man i only wish we could save and store some of this water......what a waste of a finite resource
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56. IKE

Quoting aquak9:
pressureman??

Think he's from NO,LA....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Also pressureman, while you talk about nothing in the tropics bothering anyone, as you can see below, Jamaica as issued more flash flood watches due to the TROPICAL disturbance in the Caribbean.
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pressureman- I don't WANT to breathe a sigh of relief. No I do not want Katrina at my doorstep but we need rain so bad.

I can NOT breathe a sigh of relief until this horrid drought is over.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 165 Comments: 25867
Quoting atmoaggie:
Thanks, Doc.

What I find interesting about this plot (below) is that the trend remains and/or doesn't decrease with the advent of the WSR-88D (largely implemented in '88 and '89). This gave NWS offices a much better representation of tornadic cells and armed them with the ability to give better lead times with warnings. But no decrease in the already existing trend of reduced deaths, no step-change in the trend, nothing remarkable about the advent of the WSR-88D shows here...



Just because advanced tech can give better warnings, doesn't mean people are actually going to listen to them.
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The Meteorological Service of Jamaica has extended the Flash Flood Watch for low-lying and flood-prone areas of all parishes until 5 p.m. today.

The Flash Flood Watch has been effect since Wednesday afternoon.

A Flash Flood Watch means that flash flooding is possible and residents are advised to take precautionary measures, keep updated on the situation and be ready for quick action if flooding is observed or if a Warning is issued.

The Met office said a second Tropical Wave has merged with an Area of Low Pressure over the Caribbean Sea, south of Jamaica.

It said the low pressure area intensified even further during the course of yesterday, with the major area of activity being east of Jamaica.

The forecast remains for periods of showers and thunderstorms to continue affecting most parishes into the weekend.

Fishers and other marine interests are being advised to exercise caution, as strong winds and rough sea conditions are expected in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms, especially east of Jamaica.
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pressureman??

Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 165 Comments: 25867
Quoting pressureman:
The tropics are very quiet on the 3rd day of june im happy to report...I dont see anything that could give anyone problems for at least the next 10 days..So everyone can breathe a sigh of relief for the moment...I for one know BOB BRECK is very happy with this...BOB you are doing a find job keep up the good work you and your staff...


I think we've all had enough of the Bob Breck talk, so if you wouldn't mind just being quiet about it, that'd be great.
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The tropics are very quiet on the 3rd day of june im happy to report...I dont see anything that could give anyone problems for at least the next 10 days..So everyone can breathe a sigh of relief for the moment...I for one know BOB BRECK is very happy with this...BOB you are doing a find job keep up the good work you and your staff...
Member Since: May 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 81
With much of the mountain west expected to climb into the upper 80s this weekend, those record and near-record snowfalls are going to start melting PDQ, and that's--obviously--gonna make an ever bigger mess so far as Missouri flooding is concerned, as many areas still covered with 10 feet or more of packed and settled snow.

Yikes...
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sooo 93 gonna spritz on the mexican fishing villages and our little low gonna wait for a wave sunday or monday to jumpstart it huh?
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Quoting Patrap:
No more Block,,just a sling and rehab,,slow stuff Floodman,,Lost a lotta Bicep mass,and cant reach out yet to like open a door,so patience is a learned thing sometimes.

Hope you and yours are well.


We've been better, but then we;ve been worse, so pretty much status quo...

Patience on the rehab, brother...
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seems likes we have had 2 trofs a week digging down the west coast for the last month
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we get rid of this trof out here in cali, you guuys get rid of that high in the southeast hopefully
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43. IKE
Hour 114...not much there in the Caribbean....


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Thanks Dr. Masters, for the summary.

However, I believe the path length given for the Hackleburg tornado is only that which occurred within the Birmingham NWS region. It travelled a further 106.9 miles within the Huntsville region, for a total of 132.1 miles!
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from omega blocked and general troffiness on the cool side of temps in soooo cal
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good morning all
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good read doc have a nice weekend
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53624
Lawdy,,Im glad she wasnt my wife tkeith,,LoL

I know Tommy Drago real well and will get the Char grilled un's.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127949
Quoting Patrap:
Bi-valve Banzai Bazaar in da Quarter?

Ill be dere...!!!
I dont think I'll be gettin in on the oyster eating contest though. Last year the girl that won, ate 39 dozen in 8 minutes...
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Quoting NRAamy:
13. TomTaylor 3:50 PM GMT on June 03, 2011
Quoting Levi32:
I agree....Weather456 is greatly missed.


What happened to him??



he is in hiding.... because 7 8 9.....


ROFL
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Quoting Grothar:
Disturbing images, Doc. But thanks for the update. Guess we have to wait a little for the Caribbean disturbance to make up its mind.


Wow, I'm in agreement -- disturbing images, and so surreal. I'm thankful we're just in a drought and my prayers are with all the people affected by the tornadoes and storms.
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Bi-valve Banzai Bazaar in da Quarter?

Ill be dere...!!!


New Orleans Oyster Festival celebrates the Louisiana bivalve
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127949
Meet me in the Quarter this weekend for some oysters Pat.
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13. TomTaylor 3:50 PM GMT on June 03, 2011
Quoting Levi32:
I agree....Weather456 is greatly missed.


What happened to him??



he is in hiding.... because 7 8 9.....
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Seems like most of the moisture is blowing off to the NE....same old story here in GCM with very little east to west movement...here is hoping!
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Hurricane Prep 2011
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127949
Quoting IKE:
Here's the 60 hour 12Z GFS....




there's a light green speck on your house and mine in this run....I hope this model verifies :)
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Joplin tornado damage, when from air, looks like it's been Katrina'd.
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26. IKE
Here's the 60 hour 12Z GFS....


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Thanks, Doc.

What I find interesting about this plot (below) is that the trend remains and/or doesn't decrease with the advent of the WSR-88D (largely implemented in '88 and '89). This gave NWS offices a much better representation of tornadic cells and armed them with the ability to give better lead times with warnings. But no decrease in the already existing trend of reduced deaths, no step-change in the trend, nothing remarkable about the advent of the WSR-88D shows here...

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Thanks cyclone....
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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