Caribbean disturbance slow to develop; 5 EF-5 tornadoes this year confirmed

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:33 PM GMT on June 03, 2011

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The tropical disturbance (Invest 93L) that crossed over Florida on Wednesday, bringing welcome rains of 1 - 3 inches, is now a naked swirl of low clouds over the central Gulf of Mexico. The disturbance is embedded in a large area of dry air associated with an upper level low pressure system, and this dry air is discouraging development. 93L is also moving into a region of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and NHC is giving 93L a 0% chance of developing into a tropical depression before the storm makes landfall in Mexico south of Brownsville on Saturday. There are a few heavy thunderstorms trying to fire up near the center of 93L's fairly well-formed circulation, but I don't think this storm is going to bring more than 1 - 2 inches of rain to the coast on Saturday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance.

Central Caribbean disturbance 94L
Disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity continues in the region between Central America and Jamaica. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and is predicted to continue to fall over the next two days. This should allow the disturbance, dubbed Invest 94L by NHC on Friday afternoon, to increase in organization, though it will take many days for it to approach tropical depression status, since it is so large and poorly organized. The last two runs of the NOGAPS model have developed the disturbance into a tropical depression or storm by early next week, with the system moving northwards into Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and eastern Cuba. The other major models do not show the disturbance developing during the coming week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. A surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave may aid development when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Sunday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Residents of Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them today through Sunday.

Five EF-5 tornadoes confirmed in 2011
The National Weather Service in Oklahoma City announced Wednesday that the violent tornado that hit Binger, El Reno, Peidmont, and Guthrie, Oklahoma on May 24, killing nine people, was an EF-5 with winds greater than 210 mph. The rating was given based on measurements made by a University of Oklahoma portable "Doppler on wheels" radar. The long track, large wedge tornado caused extensive damage, with well built houses cleanly swept from their foundation and trees debarked. This tornado brings the total number of EF-5 tornadoes this year to five, tying 2011 with 1953 for 2nd place for greatest number of these top-end tornadoes in one year. Only 1974 (six) had more. The EF-5 tornadoes of 2011:

1) The April 27, 2011 Neshoba/Kemper/Winston/Noxubee Counties, Mississippi tornado (3 killed, 29 mile path length.)

2) The April 27, 2011 Smithville, Mississippi tornado (22 killed, 15 mile path length.)

3) The April 27, 2011 Hackleburg, Alabama tornado (71 killed, 25 mile path length.)

4) The May 22, 2011 Joplin Missouri tornado (138 killed, 14 mile path length.)

5) The May 24, 2011 Binger-El Reno-Peidmont-Guthrie, Oklahoma tornado. (9 killed, 75 mile path length.)


Figure 2. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.

A few other remarkable statistics on the tornado season of 2011, compiled from NOAA's official press release and Wikipedia's excellent tornado pages:

- The April 25 - 28 tornado outbreak, with 330 tornadoes, was the largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record. The previous record was 148 tornadoes, set during the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak.

- For April 27, 186 tornadoes have been confirmed. This is the largest 1-day tornado total on record, beating the 148 recorded in 24 hours on April 3 - 4, 1974.

- The April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak, with 162 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the fourth largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record.

- The May 21 - 26 tornado outbreak, with 158 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the 5th largest 6-day or shorter tornado outbreak on record. A May 2003 6-day outbreak had 289 tornadoes, and a May 2004 6-day outbreak had 229 tornadoes. The year 2011 now has three of the top five tornado outbreaks on record.

- April confirmed tornado total was 683, making it the busiest tornado month on record. The previous record was 542 tornadoes, set in May 2003. The previous April record was 267 tornadoes, which occurred in April 1974. The 30-year average for April tornadoes is 135.

- If the three deaths in Massachusetts from Wednesday's tornadoes are confirmed, this year's tornado death toll will be 522, beating 1953 as the deadliest tornado year since modern tornado records began. That year, 519 people died, and three heavily populated cities received direct hits by violent tornadoes. Waco, Texas (114 killed), Flint, Michigan (115 killed), and Worcester, Massachusetts (90 killed) all were hit by violent F-4 or F-5 tornadoes. A similar bad tornado year occurred in 1936, when violent tornadoes hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.) During that time period, the tornado death rate per million people was 60 - 70 times as great as in the year 2000 (Figure 4), implying that this year's tornadoes would have killed many thousands of people had we not had our modern tornado modern warning system.

- The May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado killed 138 people and injured 1150, making it the deadliest U.S. tornado since 1947, and 8th deadliest in history. The $1 - $3 billion estimate of insured damage makes it the most expensive tornado in history.

- Damage from the April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak was estimated at $3.5 - $6 billion, making it the most expensive tornado outbreak of all-time.

- The tornado that hit Springfield, Massachusetts on June 1 was at least an EF-3 with 136 - 165 mph winds. It was only the 9th EF-3 or stronger tornado to hit Massachusetts since 1950, and the third deadliest, with three deaths.

- The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965 for highest number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4, and EF-5 tornadoes (Figure 3.)


Figure 3. Number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of these most dangerous of tornadoes. Image credit: NOAA/National Climatic Data Center (updated using stats for 2008 - 2011 from Wikipedia.)


Figure 4. Death rate per million people per year in U.S., 1875-2000. Thin line with dots is raw rate, curved thick line is death rate, filtered by 3-point median and 5-point running mean filter, and straight solid lines are least squares fit to filtered death rate for 1875-1925 and 1925-2000. Dashed lines are estimates of 10th and 90th percentile death rates from 1925-2000. The death rate fell from 8 per million to .12 per million between 1940 and 2000. Image credit: A Brief History of Deaths from Tornadoes in the United States, Harold Brooks and Charles Doswell III.

Joplin tornado the 7th U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster of 2011
The Joplin tornado is the 7th U.S. weather disaster of 2011 costing more than a billion dollars. With a major flooding disaster coming on the Missouri River, and hurricane season still to come, 2011 has an excellent chance of beating 2008's record of nine billion-dollar weather disasters. The billion dollar weather disasters of 2011 so far:

1) 2011 Groundhog Day's blizzard ($1- $4 billion)
2) April 3 -5 Southeast U.S. severe weather outbreak ($2 billion)
3) April 8 - 11 severe weather outbreak ($2.25 billion)
4) April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak ($3.5 - $6 billion)
5) Mississippi River flood of 2011 ($9 billion)
6) Texas drought ($1.2 billion)
7) Joplin tornado ($1 - $3 billion)


Figure 5. River flood outlook for the U.S. Image credit: NOAA.

The next U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster: a Missouri River flood?
A great 100-year flood has arrived along the Missouri River and its tributaries from Montana to Nebraska. Record spring rains, combined with snow melt from record or near-record winter and spring snows, brought the Missouri River at Williston, North Dakota to 27.9' yesterday, just an inch short of the highest crest on record (28.0' on 4/01/1912.) Tributaries to the Missouri, such as the Souris River in North Dakota and the North Platte River in Nebraska, are already flooding at all-time record heights. With warm summer temperatures and additional rainfall expected over much of the area during the coming week, snow melt and rain runoff will swell area rivers even further, creating a damaging 100-year flood. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has the details in his latest post, and I will be writing more on this latest epic flood next week.

I'll have a new post on Monday, or earlier if the Caribbean disturbance shows significant development.

Jeff Masters

Joplin Tornado Damage (thebige)
Joplin Tornado Damage
And Bigger.... (weatherfanatic2010)
Here it is turning into a monster.
And Bigger....

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Never mind, I looked it up
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yoda5150:
Off topic, but greetings from the Fairhope, AL. Long-time lurker, occasional poster here. Anyway, just wanted to wish everyone an active but non-productive hurricane season....and maybe a peaceful one, at least here on the blog. ;) Take care all. Back to the shadows.
Scared me there for a minute...didn't remember posting anything but saw myself
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 031752
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 3 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE SURFACE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF JAMAICA HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER DEFINED TODAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE
DIMINISHING OVER THE SYSTEM...BUT A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR IS BEING
DRAWN INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS COULD STILL CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...JAMAICA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WEST-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
ABOUT 275 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST BROWNSVILLE TEXAS IS PRODUCING
LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10
TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NRAamy:
I think there has been a Storm-JustAboutEverything by this point......


I have 7 in my Ignore list going back 5 years
Quoting HimacaneBrees:


Why Paw Paw? :-)


Cause mostly you youngsters are loud, brash and borderline troll...takes some schooling by the old hands to get you kicked up straight...LOL

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
AL, 94, 2011060318, 160N, 780W, 20,
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11424
www.solarham.com


K-indices of 5 or greater indicate storm-level geomagnetic activity around earth.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well, well, well, lookie here:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al942011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201106031758
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2011, DB, O, 2011060318, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL942011
AL, 94, 2011060318, , BEST, 0, 160N, 780W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13604
Quoting seflagamma:


I know, when I see new handles I immediate look at their "date"..this one only a few days old...

am I jaded that I am getting to the point of thinking all new handles are just old banned members who are coming back with a different handle??


been here only a few years, and feel about the same.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
166. OSMS
Actually I feel kinda of asine complaining about not having rain when you think about all the crap people in Mo, North MS, AL, etc are dealing with because of the weather related events
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Does anyone know what a K-Index of 4 means?
just caurious.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 1744
Issue Time: 2011 Jun 02 0731 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2011 Jun 02 0745 UTC
Valid To: 2011 Jun 02 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aquak9:
pressureman??



I know, when I see new h andles I immediate look at their "date"..this one only a few days old...

am I jaded that I am getting to the point of thinking all new handles are just old banned members who are coming back with a different handle??

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
163. IKE

Quoting MississippiWx:


Yep, it will be interesting to see if the tropical waves moving through the area can moisten the environment enough.
Something could develop...maybe patience is needed with this one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:

If it ain't one thing, it's another....




Yep, it will be interesting to see if the tropical waves moving through the area can moisten the environment enough.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
161. IKE

Quoting Grothar:
I know there was a Stormtop, but was there ever a Stormno? I seem to recall that, even before I was a member. Just wondering.
I remember that screen name.
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I think there has been a Storm-JustAboutEverything by this point......
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I know there was a Stormtop, but was there ever a Stormno? I seem to recall that, even before I was a member. Just wondering.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
158. IKE

Quoting MississippiWx:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE SURFACE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF JAMAICA HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER DEFINED TODAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE
DIMINISHING OVER THE SYSTEM...BUT A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR IS BEING
DRAWN INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS COULD STILL CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...JAMAICA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WEST-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
If it ain't one thing, it's another....


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
well anyway What ever is between 17N-12N and 81W-74W will be pulled to the NW-WNW

low level steering



Can't find my link to the upper level steering currents. Mind posting it if you have it?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
156. MTWX
Quoting OSMS:
That time of year to start checking the underground site. Just hope we get some type of rain making event here on the MS coast soon as long as it isn't too severe on the wind or surge. We are 20" behind.

If you guys get some, please sent some a little north of you! It's beginning to get a little crispy up here too!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Boy, I wake up from my nap and this is what I get. Insults and fighting as to who was here first. Does it really matter? All I know is Dr. Masters was the cutest baby I ever saw.


1960 was a very good year fer babies...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1138 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2011

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT...

.HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE DANGER LEVELS TODAY.

TEMPERATURE: SUCCESSIVE DAYS OF RECORD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES AND WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS HAVE RESULTED IN
HEAT STRESS ISSUES FOR MANY COMMUNITIES IN THE ADVISED AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON.

IMPACTS: THESE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH HUMIDITY
TO RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

"This makes for a very uncomfertable day"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE SURFACE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF JAMAICA HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER DEFINED TODAY
. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE
DIMINISHING OVER THE SYSTEM...BUT A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR IS BEING
DRAWN INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS COULD STILL CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...JAMAICA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WEST-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hard to believe it has been 6 yrs since i signed up. This place IMO has had great ebb and flow over the years....each year getting better as we all learn more. i would like to say thanks to all that make that happen. From Lefty420 all the way to patrap......it's been a wonderful learning/entertainment avenue.

For all of you wanting a storm today from our boy down south.... need to chill, its gonna be a slow ride!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Waltanater:
Anyone have any thoughts about the nasty blob coming off Africa now?


It is impressive, but very unusual for anything to form that far out this early in the season. It has happened, but very, very rarely. They are always good to watch, though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
150. OSMS
That time of year to start checking the underground site. Just hope we get some type of rain making event here on the MS coast soon as long as it isn't too severe on the wind or surge. We are 20" behind.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:

Spin I see is near 17N and 77.5W.


Agreed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
148. IKE
144 hour 12Z CMC....


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
147. IKE

Quoting IKE:
I'll say 20% on the next TWO in the Caribbean.
................................................. ..................................

SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
1130 AM EDT FRI JUN 03 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 15N80W IS ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD
LOW PRES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS SYSTEM WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUN BEFORE IT BEGINS TO DRIFT N. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM
NEAR 15N55W TO GUYANA WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SAT INTO
EARLY SUN BEFORE LIFTING N AS A TROUGH AXIS SUN NIGHT AND MON.
Spin I see is near 17N and 77.5W.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:



Uh huh!




I said starting to, lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
well anyway What ever is between 17N-12N and 81W-74W will be pulled to the NW-WNW

low level steering

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12423
Looks like a dominant area of low pressure is starting to develop south of the Eastern tip of Jamaica. Thunderstorms seem to be firing there and rotating in a counter-clockwise fashion.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
143. MTWX
Quoting watchingnva:
hmm, outta curiosity...how long have i been a member/lurker before that...lol...posts and looks down...lol



lurker since 2004, but couldnt remember when i ponyed up the bucks...lol

forgot the pasword to my old account so I had to create a new one in 09
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
142. IKE
I'll say 20% on the next TWO in the Caribbean.
................................................. ..................................

SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
1130 AM EDT FRI JUN 03 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 15N80W IS ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD
LOW PRES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS SYSTEM WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUN BEFORE IT BEGINS TO DRIFT N. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM
NEAR 15N55W TO GUYANA WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SAT INTO
EARLY SUN BEFORE LIFTING N AS A TROUGH AXIS SUN NIGHT AND MON.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Don't feel badly. Perhaps you may just have too much competition in that area.
Quoting Grothar:


Don't feel badly. Perhaps you may just have too much competition in that area.



yup maybe so.
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Anyone have any thoughts about the nasty blob coming off Africa now?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
You can also see the trough coming down that will buckle the sub-tropical jet and force all the convection to the Western Caribbean.
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It isn't a good solution, IMO, since it is highly situational, and not only is the construction cost excessively high, its maintenance cost would be prohibitively high, too.

Much cheaper to learn to live with whatever Ma Nature gives us, rather than trying to bend her to our will.


Also, if you did build a huge pipe that laid empty most of the time, you'd have other issues...

We learned in the Los Angeles Area last year what happens when you change the pressures in the pipes.

They made watering restrictions, and they did them all on the same day of the week! So the constant pressure changes in the pipe basically ruptured a water main in a different part of the system every week.

Thankfully, they realized that now and split the water restrictions up by days to stop changing the pressure so drastically.
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Mid-Shear starting to clear.




Uh huh!

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hmm, outta curiosity...how long have i been a member/lurker before that...lol...posts and looks down...lol



lurker since 2004, but couldnt remember when i ponyed up the bucks...lol
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Quoting HimacaneBrees:
Imho before a strong tropical system can form in the caribbean, the pseudo dynamic molecular vapor balance correlation must increase by a minimum of 400 psi. With this being said I'm sure, if you're still reading, by now you know I have no stinking clue what I'm talking about. Just wanted to see if I was able to get a laugh at my stupidity.



Don't feel badly. Perhaps you may just have too much competition in that area.
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Quoting Grothar:
Getting a little more active.



Mid-Shear starting to clear.

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Getting a little more active.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Imho before a strong tropical system can form in the caribbean, the pseudo dynamic molecular vapor balance correlation must increase by a minimum of 400 psi. With this being said I'm sure, if you're still reading, by now you know I have no stinking clue what I'm talking about. Just wanted to see if I was able to get a laugh at my stupidity.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
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Quoting iahishome:
I remember StormTop... It was interesting, and I don't really remember him being too disrespectful like some other infamous people...

He just said the NHC got every storm wrong and it was going to hit NOLA as a monster.

I think he used this map:

Troll Hurricane Forecast Map

Keeping one eye on the Caribbean... though not as well as DestinJeff I suspect.


WE PASSED A LAW IN 2006 IN NOLA. NO TROPICAL WEATHER SYSTEMS WITH WINDS OF OVER 39MPH ALLOWED IN ORLEANS PARISH .... :) :)

LYNN IN NOLA
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129. MTWX
Quoting aquak9:
The Original StormTop was here before me. I was here, before most of ya'll.

I was here the moment he returned after Katrina.

I think I know him better than most anyone here right now. Still not sure yet.

I've been around since about may of '05, became a member then, but usually don't post too much... even now.
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Quoting wildheron:


I agree, it would be a huge undertaking, but I'm just curious, would the cost of creating a pipeline be offset by the millions (billions?) spent on flood control, flood damages, dredging the silt so the rivers can still be navigated, lost crops, insurance, etc. Plus the benefits of having the water available to help prevent the crop losses from drought? and all the losses from the wildfires?

But on the other hand, man has interfered with Ma Nature to much already!
Well, cost savings would likely be marginal. You would still have to dredge the river channels (maybe even more so, since the flow will be slower, allowing sediment to drop more easily), and you have to bear in mind maintenance of the new aqueduct. While having the water available could prevent some crop losses from drought, what happens when you have a regional drought that hits on the headwater side of the pipeline? Or in both areas? You would still have drought losses. Or what about if you have flooding issues on both ends of the pipeline?

It isn't a good solution, IMO, since it is highly situational, and not only is the construction cost excessively high, its maintenance cost would be prohibitively high, too.

Much cheaper to learn to live with whatever Ma Nature gives us, rather than trying to bend her to our will.
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Off topic, but greetings from the Fairhope, AL. Long-time lurker, occasional poster here. Anyway, just wanted to wish everyone an active but non-productive hurricane season....and maybe a peaceful one, at least here on the blog. ;) Take care all. Back to the shadows.
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Quoting jeffs713:

Aqueducts is one thing. Moving tens of thousands of cubic feet of water per second across a thousand miles is another. To put it in perspective, moving 50,000 cfs of water is the equivalent of moving half of Niagara Falls... every second. That is a HUGE amount of water. And if just moving it is rough, think of the distribution network that would be needed.


I agree, it would be a huge undertaking, but I'm just curious, would the cost of creating a pipeline be offset by the millions (billions?) spent on flood control, flood damages, dredging the silt so the rivers can still be navigated, lost crops, insurance, etc. Plus the benefits of having the water available to help prevent the crop losses from drought? and all the losses from the wildfires?

But on the other hand, man has interfered with Ma Nature to much already!
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Quoting Grothar:


Boy, I wake up from my nap and this is what I get. Insults and fighting as to who was here first. Does it really matter? All I know is Dr. Masters was the cutest baby I ever saw.
wow. Just wow.
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Quoting jeffs713:
lol.

One of these days, Grothar is going to snap. Half of us will be stunned senseless, and the other half will be his targets.

(that said, Grothar, I am VERY thankful you have a good sense of humor)


LOL. No worry jeffs.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.