Caribbean disturbance slow to develop; 5 EF-5 tornadoes this year confirmed

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:33 PM GMT on June 03, 2011

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The tropical disturbance (Invest 93L) that crossed over Florida on Wednesday, bringing welcome rains of 1 - 3 inches, is now a naked swirl of low clouds over the central Gulf of Mexico. The disturbance is embedded in a large area of dry air associated with an upper level low pressure system, and this dry air is discouraging development. 93L is also moving into a region of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and NHC is giving 93L a 0% chance of developing into a tropical depression before the storm makes landfall in Mexico south of Brownsville on Saturday. There are a few heavy thunderstorms trying to fire up near the center of 93L's fairly well-formed circulation, but I don't think this storm is going to bring more than 1 - 2 inches of rain to the coast on Saturday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance.

Central Caribbean disturbance 94L
Disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity continues in the region between Central America and Jamaica. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and is predicted to continue to fall over the next two days. This should allow the disturbance, dubbed Invest 94L by NHC on Friday afternoon, to increase in organization, though it will take many days for it to approach tropical depression status, since it is so large and poorly organized. The last two runs of the NOGAPS model have developed the disturbance into a tropical depression or storm by early next week, with the system moving northwards into Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and eastern Cuba. The other major models do not show the disturbance developing during the coming week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. A surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave may aid development when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Sunday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Residents of Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them today through Sunday.

Five EF-5 tornadoes confirmed in 2011
The National Weather Service in Oklahoma City announced Wednesday that the violent tornado that hit Binger, El Reno, Peidmont, and Guthrie, Oklahoma on May 24, killing nine people, was an EF-5 with winds greater than 210 mph. The rating was given based on measurements made by a University of Oklahoma portable "Doppler on wheels" radar. The long track, large wedge tornado caused extensive damage, with well built houses cleanly swept from their foundation and trees debarked. This tornado brings the total number of EF-5 tornadoes this year to five, tying 2011 with 1953 for 2nd place for greatest number of these top-end tornadoes in one year. Only 1974 (six) had more. The EF-5 tornadoes of 2011:

1) The April 27, 2011 Neshoba/Kemper/Winston/Noxubee Counties, Mississippi tornado (3 killed, 29 mile path length.)

2) The April 27, 2011 Smithville, Mississippi tornado (22 killed, 15 mile path length.)

3) The April 27, 2011 Hackleburg, Alabama tornado (71 killed, 25 mile path length.)

4) The May 22, 2011 Joplin Missouri tornado (138 killed, 14 mile path length.)

5) The May 24, 2011 Binger-El Reno-Peidmont-Guthrie, Oklahoma tornado. (9 killed, 75 mile path length.)


Figure 2. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.

A few other remarkable statistics on the tornado season of 2011, compiled from NOAA's official press release and Wikipedia's excellent tornado pages:

- The April 25 - 28 tornado outbreak, with 330 tornadoes, was the largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record. The previous record was 148 tornadoes, set during the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak.

- For April 27, 186 tornadoes have been confirmed. This is the largest 1-day tornado total on record, beating the 148 recorded in 24 hours on April 3 - 4, 1974.

- The April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak, with 162 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the fourth largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record.

- The May 21 - 26 tornado outbreak, with 158 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the 5th largest 6-day or shorter tornado outbreak on record. A May 2003 6-day outbreak had 289 tornadoes, and a May 2004 6-day outbreak had 229 tornadoes. The year 2011 now has three of the top five tornado outbreaks on record.

- April confirmed tornado total was 683, making it the busiest tornado month on record. The previous record was 542 tornadoes, set in May 2003. The previous April record was 267 tornadoes, which occurred in April 1974. The 30-year average for April tornadoes is 135.

- If the three deaths in Massachusetts from Wednesday's tornadoes are confirmed, this year's tornado death toll will be 522, beating 1953 as the deadliest tornado year since modern tornado records began. That year, 519 people died, and three heavily populated cities received direct hits by violent tornadoes. Waco, Texas (114 killed), Flint, Michigan (115 killed), and Worcester, Massachusetts (90 killed) all were hit by violent F-4 or F-5 tornadoes. A similar bad tornado year occurred in 1936, when violent tornadoes hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.) During that time period, the tornado death rate per million people was 60 - 70 times as great as in the year 2000 (Figure 4), implying that this year's tornadoes would have killed many thousands of people had we not had our modern tornado modern warning system.

- The May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado killed 138 people and injured 1150, making it the deadliest U.S. tornado since 1947, and 8th deadliest in history. The $1 - $3 billion estimate of insured damage makes it the most expensive tornado in history.

- Damage from the April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak was estimated at $3.5 - $6 billion, making it the most expensive tornado outbreak of all-time.

- The tornado that hit Springfield, Massachusetts on June 1 was at least an EF-3 with 136 - 165 mph winds. It was only the 9th EF-3 or stronger tornado to hit Massachusetts since 1950, and the third deadliest, with three deaths.

- The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965 for highest number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4, and EF-5 tornadoes (Figure 3.)


Figure 3. Number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of these most dangerous of tornadoes. Image credit: NOAA/National Climatic Data Center (updated using stats for 2008 - 2011 from Wikipedia.)


Figure 4. Death rate per million people per year in U.S., 1875-2000. Thin line with dots is raw rate, curved thick line is death rate, filtered by 3-point median and 5-point running mean filter, and straight solid lines are least squares fit to filtered death rate for 1875-1925 and 1925-2000. Dashed lines are estimates of 10th and 90th percentile death rates from 1925-2000. The death rate fell from 8 per million to .12 per million between 1940 and 2000. Image credit: A Brief History of Deaths from Tornadoes in the United States, Harold Brooks and Charles Doswell III.

Joplin tornado the 7th U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster of 2011
The Joplin tornado is the 7th U.S. weather disaster of 2011 costing more than a billion dollars. With a major flooding disaster coming on the Missouri River, and hurricane season still to come, 2011 has an excellent chance of beating 2008's record of nine billion-dollar weather disasters. The billion dollar weather disasters of 2011 so far:

1) 2011 Groundhog Day's blizzard ($1- $4 billion)
2) April 3 -5 Southeast U.S. severe weather outbreak ($2 billion)
3) April 8 - 11 severe weather outbreak ($2.25 billion)
4) April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak ($3.5 - $6 billion)
5) Mississippi River flood of 2011 ($9 billion)
6) Texas drought ($1.2 billion)
7) Joplin tornado ($1 - $3 billion)


Figure 5. River flood outlook for the U.S. Image credit: NOAA.

The next U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster: a Missouri River flood?
A great 100-year flood has arrived along the Missouri River and its tributaries from Montana to Nebraska. Record spring rains, combined with snow melt from record or near-record winter and spring snows, brought the Missouri River at Williston, North Dakota to 27.9' yesterday, just an inch short of the highest crest on record (28.0' on 4/01/1912.) Tributaries to the Missouri, such as the Souris River in North Dakota and the North Platte River in Nebraska, are already flooding at all-time record heights. With warm summer temperatures and additional rainfall expected over much of the area during the coming week, snow melt and rain runoff will swell area rivers even further, creating a damaging 100-year flood. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has the details in his latest post, and I will be writing more on this latest epic flood next week.

I'll have a new post on Monday, or earlier if the Caribbean disturbance shows significant development.

Jeff Masters

Joplin Tornado Damage (thebige)
Joplin Tornado Damage
And Bigger.... (weatherfanatic2010)
Here it is turning into a monster.
And Bigger....

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Quoting MississippiWx:
94L looks 10x better than yesterday. Circulation is still a bit broad, but it is much better defined. It is bending the flow over a large area. Shear doesn't seem to be a problem, but as the NHC pointed out, dry air is impeding development on the west side of the system. I would imagine that it could overcome that dry air considering how moist the air is elsewhere. Anyway, it looks like it's in much better position to develop today than it was yesterday.


It is finally starting to get the "look" of a developing tropical cyclone.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
94L looks 10x better than yesterday. Circulation is still a bit broad, but it is much better defined. It is bending the flow over a large area. Shear doesn't seem to be a problem, but as the NHC pointed out, dry air is impeding development on the west side of the system. I would imagine that it could overcome that dry air considering how moist the air is elsewhere. Anyway, it looks like it's in much better position to develop today than it was yesterday.


May have a TD as early as early next week.
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322. 7544
well well another surprise didnt have to to wait till the weekend 94l is up next ? is where will it go go go
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With the current steering current, I still say NW or WNW as I have been saying for 4 days.

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94L looks 10x better than yesterday. Circulation is still a bit broad, but it is much better defined. It is bending the flow over a large area. Shear doesn't seem to be a problem, but as the NHC pointed out, dry air is impeding development on the west side of the system. I would imagine that it could overcome that dry air considering how moist the air is elsewhere. Anyway, it looks like it's in much better position to develop today than it was yesterday.
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Quoting beell:
94L looks pretty good. There is too much surface convergence in this area to not result in a number and/or a name. Easterlies along 20N, southeasterlies curving into the area S of 20N as a result of lowered pressure associated with the monsoon, and the southwesterly flow also associated with the monsoon from the Pacific. Shear is low. Only one place for this surface convergence to go-up.

Moisture is high, upper high over the top. Dry air off to the west for now. Satellite presentation getting better and better. How can it fail?


I agree.
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317. JRRP

ya era hora
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RAAMB page 94AL


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315. beell
94L looks pretty good. There is too much surface convergence in this area to not result in a number and/or a name. Easterlies along 20N, southeasterlies curving into the area S of 20N as a result of lowered pressure associated with the monsoon, and the southwesterly flow also associated with the monsoon from the Pacific. Shear is low. Only one place for this surface convergence to go-up.

Moisture is high, upper high over the top. Dry air off to the west for now. Satellite presentation getting better and better. How can it fail? I think it's gonna go. And it might not be that slow to develop.
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Quoting aquak9:
we need more butterflies

tropicfreak- that is so sweet, us or Texas. But really, Texas needs it more than we do.


How about both? LOL
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313. xcool
i wait for more forecast model support .....like to seeing hwrf gfdl runn.
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Quoting NRAamy:
it is NOT Stormtop.....

it is JFV....


I'm kind of waiting for Jason and Janiel to team up and take the "JFViscoolman" handle. COOL!
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we need more butterflies

tropicfreak- that is so sweet, us or Texas. But really, Texas needs it more than we do.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 169 Comments: 26126
310. Hugo7
L93 has slowed westward movement and is gaining convection. still has a chance.
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Quoting xcool:
WHXX01 KWBC 031843
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1843 UTC FRI JUN 3 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942011) 20110603 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110603 1800 110604 0600 110604 1800 110605 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.1N 77.3W 16.7N 77.3W 17.2N 77.7W 17.1N 78.5W
BAMD 16.1N 77.3W 17.0N 76.1W 17.6N 75.1W 18.1N 74.1W
BAMM 16.1N 77.3W 16.8N 76.3W 17.4N 75.9W 17.7N 75.7W
LBAR 16.1N 77.3W 16.9N 76.3W 18.1N 75.6W 19.4N 74.2W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 28KTS 31KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 28KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110605 1800 110606 1800 110607 1800 110608 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.9N 79.4W 16.5N 80.1W 16.6N 80.5W 17.0N 82.1W
BAMD 18.6N 73.0W 19.9N 69.3W 22.8N 62.5W 28.3N 50.8W
BAMM 18.0N 75.9W 19.0N 76.1W 20.2N 75.3W 21.5N 74.3W
LBAR 20.8N 72.1W 23.1N 64.4W 30.7N 53.0W .0N .0W
SHIP 34KTS 38KTS 32KTS 21KTS
DSHP 34KTS 38KTS 30KTS 26KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.1N LONCUR = 77.3W DIRCUR = 70DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 15.8N LONM12 = 78.3W DIRM12 = 71DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 15.0N LONM24 = 80.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM




Given the forecast scheme from the SHIPS model and the current state of Invest 94L, the BAMS model seems to be the most reasonable and the one to track over the coming days as this disturbance slowly organizes.
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Does anyone has the 12z ECMWF?
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Not much to show yet...


Except that damm line going over Haiti....
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Hey watch, long time no see!!!


whats going on man...hows it going?
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Quoting xcool:
ECMWF,12z 240hrs head 94L into gom


that would be no bueno!
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Quoting blsealevel:


Dang Butterflys
maybe they can have a national stomp in the dust fair over on the coast of africa that would sent up and out alot of sal curb storm dev.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54630
An anticyclone appears to be building directly over 94L.
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Hello Once Again all.
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yesterday there were 4 brush fires were getting big near crestview.. I think was near atmore and flamaton FL.. Thats in the FL panhandle.. Im trying to check the latest news.. But fires r popping up more now.. Hope we can get the much needed rain from texas to fl..
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Quoting xcool:
ECMWF,12z 240hrs head 94L into gom


Uh-oh.
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299. xcool
ECMWF,12z 240hrs head 94L into gom
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Quoting Neapolitan:

;-)

A butterfly in eastern Kenya flapped his wings this morning, creating the small amount of turbulence that will become part of an updraft that will provide energy to help grow a small cumulus cloud that will drift westward and be drawn into a cluster of similar clouds that over time grow into a cumulonimbus that forms the basis for a nascent tropical wave that moves off the African coast next week that makes its way across the Atlantic and provides the impetus to fire off some sustained convection that creates a low pressure area beneath that begins ever-so-slightly spinning in response to the mild but insistent tug of the Coriolis force that eventually catches the attention of meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center who determine it's robust enough to deserve to be designated 95L.


Dang Butterflys
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
94L



...take your pick.


BAMS right now.
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..duplicate
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yes, unibrow..... which doesn't bother me.... my brow gets attention....

;)

I use mustache wax on it... gonna grow it out real long...enter it into the fair....
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already posted
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Curtain ALERT Level: Mauve
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GHCC loop for 94L
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Not much to show yet...

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94L looks to be consolidating directly to the south of Jamaica.
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Quoting jlp09550:


It's listed for me under the tropical RSS feed from WU. However, graphics haven't been generated yet it seems..

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at2 01194.html


And when will they have a floater up for 94L on the NHC satellite page?
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Well, I am thinking of you all in Florida, let's hope 94L brings you some much needed rain, with not a lot of wind and damage.
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Quoting seflagamma:
so when will the 94L indication go up on the WU tropical page?? it still just has 93L listed?


It's listed for me under the tropical RSS feed from WU. However, graphics haven't been generated yet it seems..

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at2 01194.html
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so when will the 94L indication go up on the WU tropical page?? it still just has 93L listed?
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Quoting StAugustineFL:


It sure is. I'm relatively new and don't know how everything works but I thought perhaps allowing only paid members participate in the blog would be helpful. Might deter one if they need to pay $10/day per handle.


noooo, cause then us college kids who are broke cant blog with the rest.
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Quoting jlp09550:


Ooooohhh..
The circulation is very evident to the south of Jamaica but looks pretty stationary.
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Quoting NRAamy:
it is NOT Stormtop.....

it is JFV....
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54630
281. xcool
WHXX01 KWBC 031843
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1843 UTC FRI JUN 3 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942011) 20110603 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110603 1800 110604 0600 110604 1800 110605 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.1N 77.3W 16.7N 77.3W 17.2N 77.7W 17.1N 78.5W
BAMD 16.1N 77.3W 17.0N 76.1W 17.6N 75.1W 18.1N 74.1W
BAMM 16.1N 77.3W 16.8N 76.3W 17.4N 75.9W 17.7N 75.7W
LBAR 16.1N 77.3W 16.9N 76.3W 18.1N 75.6W 19.4N 74.2W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 28KTS 31KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 28KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110605 1800 110606 1800 110607 1800 110608 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.9N 79.4W 16.5N 80.1W 16.6N 80.5W 17.0N 82.1W
BAMD 18.6N 73.0W 19.9N 69.3W 22.8N 62.5W 28.3N 50.8W
BAMM 18.0N 75.9W 19.0N 76.1W 20.2N 75.3W 21.5N 74.3W
LBAR 20.8N 72.1W 23.1N 64.4W 30.7N 53.0W .0N .0W
SHIP 34KTS 38KTS 32KTS 21KTS
DSHP 34KTS 38KTS 30KTS 26KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.1N LONCUR = 77.3W DIRCUR = 70DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 15.8N LONM12 = 78.3W DIRM12 = 71DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 15.0N LONM24 = 80.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


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Quoting tropicfreak:


He also wishcastes every storm to hit Florida.
Yes, but he has the best protection with the fish and my little pony shower curtains. Any thoughts from anyone on projected movement of 94L. It does seem to be getting slowly better organized and looks like a tropical system now.
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Ooooohhh.. 94L!
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INVEST 94 CLASSIFIED!!!

Caribbean disturbance now Invest 94L
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Sorry, I haven't been on here long enough to know what stormtop did.


And I never really been blaming everything on Stormtop, mostly JFV or stormkat.
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Quoting NRAamy:
How far North can you go in Florida and still be considered South Florida?



Palm Beach / Martin County line
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting aquak9:


No! Quit trying to blame everything on StormTop. He was never rude to anyone. Ya'll really have no idea about him.


Hi Aqua, I agree with you, StormTop was not a troll, he was just a very excited and pretty good weather blogger here..

Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 40920

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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