Caribbean disturbance slow to develop; 5 EF-5 tornadoes this year confirmed

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:33 PM GMT on June 03, 2011

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The tropical disturbance (Invest 93L) that crossed over Florida on Wednesday, bringing welcome rains of 1 - 3 inches, is now a naked swirl of low clouds over the central Gulf of Mexico. The disturbance is embedded in a large area of dry air associated with an upper level low pressure system, and this dry air is discouraging development. 93L is also moving into a region of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and NHC is giving 93L a 0% chance of developing into a tropical depression before the storm makes landfall in Mexico south of Brownsville on Saturday. There are a few heavy thunderstorms trying to fire up near the center of 93L's fairly well-formed circulation, but I don't think this storm is going to bring more than 1 - 2 inches of rain to the coast on Saturday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance.

Central Caribbean disturbance 94L
Disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity continues in the region between Central America and Jamaica. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and is predicted to continue to fall over the next two days. This should allow the disturbance, dubbed Invest 94L by NHC on Friday afternoon, to increase in organization, though it will take many days for it to approach tropical depression status, since it is so large and poorly organized. The last two runs of the NOGAPS model have developed the disturbance into a tropical depression or storm by early next week, with the system moving northwards into Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and eastern Cuba. The other major models do not show the disturbance developing during the coming week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. A surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave may aid development when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Sunday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Residents of Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them today through Sunday.

Five EF-5 tornadoes confirmed in 2011
The National Weather Service in Oklahoma City announced Wednesday that the violent tornado that hit Binger, El Reno, Peidmont, and Guthrie, Oklahoma on May 24, killing nine people, was an EF-5 with winds greater than 210 mph. The rating was given based on measurements made by a University of Oklahoma portable "Doppler on wheels" radar. The long track, large wedge tornado caused extensive damage, with well built houses cleanly swept from their foundation and trees debarked. This tornado brings the total number of EF-5 tornadoes this year to five, tying 2011 with 1953 for 2nd place for greatest number of these top-end tornadoes in one year. Only 1974 (six) had more. The EF-5 tornadoes of 2011:

1) The April 27, 2011 Neshoba/Kemper/Winston/Noxubee Counties, Mississippi tornado (3 killed, 29 mile path length.)

2) The April 27, 2011 Smithville, Mississippi tornado (22 killed, 15 mile path length.)

3) The April 27, 2011 Hackleburg, Alabama tornado (71 killed, 25 mile path length.)

4) The May 22, 2011 Joplin Missouri tornado (138 killed, 14 mile path length.)

5) The May 24, 2011 Binger-El Reno-Peidmont-Guthrie, Oklahoma tornado. (9 killed, 75 mile path length.)


Figure 2. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.

A few other remarkable statistics on the tornado season of 2011, compiled from NOAA's official press release and Wikipedia's excellent tornado pages:

- The April 25 - 28 tornado outbreak, with 330 tornadoes, was the largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record. The previous record was 148 tornadoes, set during the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak.

- For April 27, 186 tornadoes have been confirmed. This is the largest 1-day tornado total on record, beating the 148 recorded in 24 hours on April 3 - 4, 1974.

- The April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak, with 162 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the fourth largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record.

- The May 21 - 26 tornado outbreak, with 158 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the 5th largest 6-day or shorter tornado outbreak on record. A May 2003 6-day outbreak had 289 tornadoes, and a May 2004 6-day outbreak had 229 tornadoes. The year 2011 now has three of the top five tornado outbreaks on record.

- April confirmed tornado total was 683, making it the busiest tornado month on record. The previous record was 542 tornadoes, set in May 2003. The previous April record was 267 tornadoes, which occurred in April 1974. The 30-year average for April tornadoes is 135.

- If the three deaths in Massachusetts from Wednesday's tornadoes are confirmed, this year's tornado death toll will be 522, beating 1953 as the deadliest tornado year since modern tornado records began. That year, 519 people died, and three heavily populated cities received direct hits by violent tornadoes. Waco, Texas (114 killed), Flint, Michigan (115 killed), and Worcester, Massachusetts (90 killed) all were hit by violent F-4 or F-5 tornadoes. A similar bad tornado year occurred in 1936, when violent tornadoes hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.) During that time period, the tornado death rate per million people was 60 - 70 times as great as in the year 2000 (Figure 4), implying that this year's tornadoes would have killed many thousands of people had we not had our modern tornado modern warning system.

- The May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado killed 138 people and injured 1150, making it the deadliest U.S. tornado since 1947, and 8th deadliest in history. The $1 - $3 billion estimate of insured damage makes it the most expensive tornado in history.

- Damage from the April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak was estimated at $3.5 - $6 billion, making it the most expensive tornado outbreak of all-time.

- The tornado that hit Springfield, Massachusetts on June 1 was at least an EF-3 with 136 - 165 mph winds. It was only the 9th EF-3 or stronger tornado to hit Massachusetts since 1950, and the third deadliest, with three deaths.

- The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965 for highest number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4, and EF-5 tornadoes (Figure 3.)


Figure 3. Number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of these most dangerous of tornadoes. Image credit: NOAA/National Climatic Data Center (updated using stats for 2008 - 2011 from Wikipedia.)


Figure 4. Death rate per million people per year in U.S., 1875-2000. Thin line with dots is raw rate, curved thick line is death rate, filtered by 3-point median and 5-point running mean filter, and straight solid lines are least squares fit to filtered death rate for 1875-1925 and 1925-2000. Dashed lines are estimates of 10th and 90th percentile death rates from 1925-2000. The death rate fell from 8 per million to .12 per million between 1940 and 2000. Image credit: A Brief History of Deaths from Tornadoes in the United States, Harold Brooks and Charles Doswell III.

Joplin tornado the 7th U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster of 2011
The Joplin tornado is the 7th U.S. weather disaster of 2011 costing more than a billion dollars. With a major flooding disaster coming on the Missouri River, and hurricane season still to come, 2011 has an excellent chance of beating 2008's record of nine billion-dollar weather disasters. The billion dollar weather disasters of 2011 so far:

1) 2011 Groundhog Day's blizzard ($1- $4 billion)
2) April 3 -5 Southeast U.S. severe weather outbreak ($2 billion)
3) April 8 - 11 severe weather outbreak ($2.25 billion)
4) April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak ($3.5 - $6 billion)
5) Mississippi River flood of 2011 ($9 billion)
6) Texas drought ($1.2 billion)
7) Joplin tornado ($1 - $3 billion)


Figure 5. River flood outlook for the U.S. Image credit: NOAA.

The next U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster: a Missouri River flood?
A great 100-year flood has arrived along the Missouri River and its tributaries from Montana to Nebraska. Record spring rains, combined with snow melt from record or near-record winter and spring snows, brought the Missouri River at Williston, North Dakota to 27.9' yesterday, just an inch short of the highest crest on record (28.0' on 4/01/1912.) Tributaries to the Missouri, such as the Souris River in North Dakota and the North Platte River in Nebraska, are already flooding at all-time record heights. With warm summer temperatures and additional rainfall expected over much of the area during the coming week, snow melt and rain runoff will swell area rivers even further, creating a damaging 100-year flood. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has the details in his latest post, and I will be writing more on this latest epic flood next week.

I'll have a new post on Monday, or earlier if the Caribbean disturbance shows significant development.

Jeff Masters

Joplin Tornado Damage (thebige)
Joplin Tornado Damage
And Bigger.... (weatherfanatic2010)
Here it is turning into a monster.
And Bigger....

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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Please don't do that. Not everyone is perfect in English. We all understand him so leave it alone. His posts are valuable on here. Thanks. Grammer is actually spelled grammar.


I know, I know, nobody's perfect anyways.
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Quoting sunlinepr:




West winds yet? Lol!
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:
Invest 94L is looking like the first fish storm of the year.


Fish storm??? I don't think so. Maybe the first decent threat to land in the year but even if this skirts Cuba then races out to sea, this is not gonna be a fish-storm. Nasty rainfall and flooding is already occuring over Jamaica, SE Cuba and Haiti.
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471. j2008
Im thinking 94 will be TD 1 by tommorow at latest.
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470. beell
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
As divergence aloft increases, surface pressure in turn decreases. The atmosphere naturally responds to this increase in upper-level divergence with lower-level convergence. What lower-level convergence allows for is the enhancement of convective activity. Currently, upper-level divergence is very good with 94L, and the atmosphere is responding with some good lower-level convergence. Looking at surface observations in the area, pressures are currently reported to mainly be below 29.80in. 94L is definitely organizing, albeit not quickly.

(Refer to post 450 for graphics).


Hey, Miami,
Covergence/Divergence is lining up pretty well. I beat ya by a few seconds on the graphics, lol.

Surface convergence is excellent.

Made the following graphic yesterday during a conversation with a blogger in Puerto Rico regarding his concern for potentially heavy rain. I think it illustrates the very good (better than "normal") surface convergence and very good upward motion as a result over the area. With the exhaust vent (anticyclone) overhead of course. We may even see this try to consolidate a bit to the NE in response.

Yesterday's 12Z GFS-Valid 00Z Saturday

Photobucket
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Quoting hurricaneben:


Funny, I have the same feeling. But improve the grammer a tad, please LOL.
Please don't do that. Not everyone is perfect in English. We all understand him so leave it alone. His posts are valuable on here. Thanks. Grammer is actually spelled grammar.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
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Quoting eyestalker:
I don't think it'll go out to sea at all, but most likely will eventually go through the Yucatan Channel, just give it time.


Does anyone have an idea on where this thing is going?
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Quoting xcool:
Does anyone feel like 2011 hurricaneseason about go kaboom i meaing bad bad for us i just have bad feeling about this year no clue why..


Funny, I have the same feeling. But improve the grammer a tad, please LOL.
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93L WunderMap®
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Quoting IKE:

Latest 18Z NAM does....




That was fast... thanks!
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Invest 94L is looking like the first fish storm of the year.
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462. IKE

Quoting galvestonhurricane:
Do any models besides NOGAPS develop 94?
Latest 18Z NAM does....


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Do any models besides NOGAPS develop 94?
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Surface observations and satellite imagery both reveal consolidating cyclonic rotation associated with 94L.
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457. xcool
Does anyone feel like 2011 hurricaneseason about go kaboom i meaing bad bad for us i just have bad feeling about this year no clue why..
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


You sure you want your Canadian buddy to add this to his got ya's?


After two days of this, he could put me on the "snow" list and I would be happy.
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As divergence aloft increases, surface pressure in turn decreases. The atmosphere naturally responds to this increase in upper-level divergence with lower-level convergence. What lower-level convergence allows for is the enhancement of convective activity. Currently, upper-level divergence is very good with 94L, and the atmosphere is responding with some good lower-level convergence. Looking at surface observations in the area, pressures are currently reported to mainly be below 29.80in. 94L is definitely organizing, albeit not quickly.

(Refer to post 450 for graphics).
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we've had it for 3 hours now.

AL942011 - INVEST


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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
Hey RTLSNK, now 104.1 in Macon with a 110-112 heat index. :(


Hey Swirl, I just saw that, would be a good day to cool off in the pond but I think I'll wait until the big hairy guy gets out first. :)
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452. JRRP
Quoting Levi32:
Checking in for lunch. It seems the main center of 94L has redeveloped at a more favorable location beneath the ridge. The current ENE movement could reverse back to the north or northwest for a time, but then it may be pulled back northeast out to sea. The only thing about the model runs is ACTF chose coordinates way too far west for 18z. Furthermore, the global models all have the low much farther west in this time frame than it currently is in reality, which may change some things. However, the route into the NW Caribbean is still open if the trough over the western Atlantic is not strong enough to whisk it out to sea fast enough.

that is what i thought
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450. beell
click graphics to open in new window



18Z 850-925mb Convergence



18Z 150-300mb Divergence
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we officaly have 94L

AL, 94, 2011060318, , BEST, 0, 161N, 773W, 20, 1007, DB,
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12712
94L will move WNW-NNW
slowly

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12712
447. xcool



nice
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446. IKE
QPF for the next 24 hours. Come on rain....


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I see this becoming a TD and moving into Haiti
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Quoting iamajeepmom:


That's funny you say that ...

A friend of mine works for a car dealer in Houston. For Ike, they moved all their stock to a parking garage so they wouldn't get flooded. Unfortunately, a nearby high rise had one of those tar and gravel roof and apparently a lot of it was loose.
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‎"Tropical Storm Arlene" is finally developing in the Caribbean, I expect a TD by Sunday if not Saturday. Otherwise, I'm looking at code orange for the evening outlook. With an anticyclone over it, anything is possible.
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Quoting IKE:
Sea breeze front moving inland....




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Quoting Levi32:
There is some evidence of weak banding, indicating a more defined low pressure area. Visible RGB loop


Been noticing that for the past few hours. Surface observations are also showing a much more defined low pressure center than we have had the past several days. Seems to be tightening in time.
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439. 7544
Quoting JLPR2:
Will be interesting to see how 94L does tonight.


should blow up at dmax tonight
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Back to work. Later.
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437. JLPR2
Will be interesting to see how 94L does tonight.
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Link
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Quoting Gearsts:
IT just doesnt stop!!


It may continue until next tuesday,as met Ada Monzon said this morning on radio.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14775
434. IKE
Sea breeze front moving inland....


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Quoting Levi32:
Checking in for lunch. It seems the main center of 94L has redeveloped at a more favorable location beneath the ridge. The current ENE movement could reverse back to the north or northwest for a time, but then it may be pulled back northeast out to sea. The only thing about the model runs is ACTF chose coordinates way too far west for 18z. Furthermore, the global models all have the low much farther west in this time frame than it currently is in reality, which may change some things. However, the route into the NW Caribbean is still open if the trough over the western Atlantic is not strong enough to whisk it out to sea fast enough.
Hi Levi i forgot about lunch already . I hope the sytem moves west as we really need the rain . I think the rain gfs has for us wont hapen if it mowes east
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Quoting spathy:


Dookie
I think the delay in the rainy season is partly my fault.
I replaced my front lawn with a new type of grass.
Thus the delay in the rains.
Not to mention the water I put on the lawn is draining through the center of the earth and helping flood some other area of the World.


So you're the one!!!!! I knew it was somebody down here!!!! I've been trying to counteract you by washing my car hourly. That certainly attracts the birds, but not the rain yet.

And by the way...I'm thinking the neighbors might be a little more upset if my cactus goes flying as opposed to the small stones.
"Howdy neighbor...is that YOUR cactus impaled on the hood of my car" "Nope...must be someone else's"
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There is some evidence of weak banding, indicating a more defined low pressure area. Visible RGB loop
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Hey RTLSNK, now 104.1 in Macon with a 110-112 heat index. :(
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Quoting JLPR2:
It's raining here again. Bleh...
And to think the NE area of PR wasn't that far away from the start of a drought.
IT just doesnt stop!!
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Quoting iamajeepmom:


That's funny you say that ... after Wilma we had these little white and black pebble like rocks all over the place, in the pool, everywhere. They came from the flat roofs around us ... I don't think there are any shingles on those flat roofs, just that asphalt and rocky stuff ...

Also, remember that an object's kinetic energy is directly proportional to its speed AND its mass. Pebbles don't have a lot of energy until they start moving at fantastic speeds.
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Quoting StAugustineFL:


lol, I'll take the high road.......
Good choice, although I somehow missed that part... probably a good thing I did, though, since the moment has now passed.
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426. JLPR2
It's raining here again. Bleh...
And to think the NE area of PR wasn't that far away from the start of a drought.
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Quoting jeffs713:

Well, from what I've seen in storms, small rocks and such really aren't picked up, since they have a fairly low profile. The more something sticks out, the more it goes from "lawn ornament" to "through-your-window-ornament".


That's funny you say that ... after Wilma we had these little white and black pebble like rocks all over the place, in the pool, everywhere. They came from the flat roofs around us ... I don't think there are any shingles on those flat roofs, just that asphalt and rocky stuff ...
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Quoting RitaEvac:


get a tan with no shirt on instead of the farmers tan
Well yeah... although right now, you can tell one of my close relatives is Casper, the friendly ghost. ;)

(Gotta get a good tan before my late honeymoon to Hawaii...)

The thing with watering your grass in the middle of the day is that you lose half the water to evaporation - gets expensive on your water bill.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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