Caribbean disturbance slow to develop; 5 EF-5 tornadoes this year confirmed

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:33 PM GMT on June 03, 2011

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The tropical disturbance (Invest 93L) that crossed over Florida on Wednesday, bringing welcome rains of 1 - 3 inches, is now a naked swirl of low clouds over the central Gulf of Mexico. The disturbance is embedded in a large area of dry air associated with an upper level low pressure system, and this dry air is discouraging development. 93L is also moving into a region of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and NHC is giving 93L a 0% chance of developing into a tropical depression before the storm makes landfall in Mexico south of Brownsville on Saturday. There are a few heavy thunderstorms trying to fire up near the center of 93L's fairly well-formed circulation, but I don't think this storm is going to bring more than 1 - 2 inches of rain to the coast on Saturday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance.

Central Caribbean disturbance 94L
Disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity continues in the region between Central America and Jamaica. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and is predicted to continue to fall over the next two days. This should allow the disturbance, dubbed Invest 94L by NHC on Friday afternoon, to increase in organization, though it will take many days for it to approach tropical depression status, since it is so large and poorly organized. The last two runs of the NOGAPS model have developed the disturbance into a tropical depression or storm by early next week, with the system moving northwards into Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and eastern Cuba. The other major models do not show the disturbance developing during the coming week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. A surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave may aid development when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Sunday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Residents of Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them today through Sunday.

Five EF-5 tornadoes confirmed in 2011
The National Weather Service in Oklahoma City announced Wednesday that the violent tornado that hit Binger, El Reno, Peidmont, and Guthrie, Oklahoma on May 24, killing nine people, was an EF-5 with winds greater than 210 mph. The rating was given based on measurements made by a University of Oklahoma portable "Doppler on wheels" radar. The long track, large wedge tornado caused extensive damage, with well built houses cleanly swept from their foundation and trees debarked. This tornado brings the total number of EF-5 tornadoes this year to five, tying 2011 with 1953 for 2nd place for greatest number of these top-end tornadoes in one year. Only 1974 (six) had more. The EF-5 tornadoes of 2011:

1) The April 27, 2011 Neshoba/Kemper/Winston/Noxubee Counties, Mississippi tornado (3 killed, 29 mile path length.)

2) The April 27, 2011 Smithville, Mississippi tornado (22 killed, 15 mile path length.)

3) The April 27, 2011 Hackleburg, Alabama tornado (71 killed, 25 mile path length.)

4) The May 22, 2011 Joplin Missouri tornado (138 killed, 14 mile path length.)

5) The May 24, 2011 Binger-El Reno-Peidmont-Guthrie, Oklahoma tornado. (9 killed, 75 mile path length.)


Figure 2. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.

A few other remarkable statistics on the tornado season of 2011, compiled from NOAA's official press release and Wikipedia's excellent tornado pages:

- The April 25 - 28 tornado outbreak, with 330 tornadoes, was the largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record. The previous record was 148 tornadoes, set during the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak.

- For April 27, 186 tornadoes have been confirmed. This is the largest 1-day tornado total on record, beating the 148 recorded in 24 hours on April 3 - 4, 1974.

- The April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak, with 162 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the fourth largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record.

- The May 21 - 26 tornado outbreak, with 158 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the 5th largest 6-day or shorter tornado outbreak on record. A May 2003 6-day outbreak had 289 tornadoes, and a May 2004 6-day outbreak had 229 tornadoes. The year 2011 now has three of the top five tornado outbreaks on record.

- April confirmed tornado total was 683, making it the busiest tornado month on record. The previous record was 542 tornadoes, set in May 2003. The previous April record was 267 tornadoes, which occurred in April 1974. The 30-year average for April tornadoes is 135.

- If the three deaths in Massachusetts from Wednesday's tornadoes are confirmed, this year's tornado death toll will be 522, beating 1953 as the deadliest tornado year since modern tornado records began. That year, 519 people died, and three heavily populated cities received direct hits by violent tornadoes. Waco, Texas (114 killed), Flint, Michigan (115 killed), and Worcester, Massachusetts (90 killed) all were hit by violent F-4 or F-5 tornadoes. A similar bad tornado year occurred in 1936, when violent tornadoes hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.) During that time period, the tornado death rate per million people was 60 - 70 times as great as in the year 2000 (Figure 4), implying that this year's tornadoes would have killed many thousands of people had we not had our modern tornado modern warning system.

- The May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado killed 138 people and injured 1150, making it the deadliest U.S. tornado since 1947, and 8th deadliest in history. The $1 - $3 billion estimate of insured damage makes it the most expensive tornado in history.

- Damage from the April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak was estimated at $3.5 - $6 billion, making it the most expensive tornado outbreak of all-time.

- The tornado that hit Springfield, Massachusetts on June 1 was at least an EF-3 with 136 - 165 mph winds. It was only the 9th EF-3 or stronger tornado to hit Massachusetts since 1950, and the third deadliest, with three deaths.

- The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965 for highest number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4, and EF-5 tornadoes (Figure 3.)


Figure 3. Number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of these most dangerous of tornadoes. Image credit: NOAA/National Climatic Data Center (updated using stats for 2008 - 2011 from Wikipedia.)


Figure 4. Death rate per million people per year in U.S., 1875-2000. Thin line with dots is raw rate, curved thick line is death rate, filtered by 3-point median and 5-point running mean filter, and straight solid lines are least squares fit to filtered death rate for 1875-1925 and 1925-2000. Dashed lines are estimates of 10th and 90th percentile death rates from 1925-2000. The death rate fell from 8 per million to .12 per million between 1940 and 2000. Image credit: A Brief History of Deaths from Tornadoes in the United States, Harold Brooks and Charles Doswell III.

Joplin tornado the 7th U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster of 2011
The Joplin tornado is the 7th U.S. weather disaster of 2011 costing more than a billion dollars. With a major flooding disaster coming on the Missouri River, and hurricane season still to come, 2011 has an excellent chance of beating 2008's record of nine billion-dollar weather disasters. The billion dollar weather disasters of 2011 so far:

1) 2011 Groundhog Day's blizzard ($1- $4 billion)
2) April 3 -5 Southeast U.S. severe weather outbreak ($2 billion)
3) April 8 - 11 severe weather outbreak ($2.25 billion)
4) April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak ($3.5 - $6 billion)
5) Mississippi River flood of 2011 ($9 billion)
6) Texas drought ($1.2 billion)
7) Joplin tornado ($1 - $3 billion)


Figure 5. River flood outlook for the U.S. Image credit: NOAA.

The next U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster: a Missouri River flood?
A great 100-year flood has arrived along the Missouri River and its tributaries from Montana to Nebraska. Record spring rains, combined with snow melt from record or near-record winter and spring snows, brought the Missouri River at Williston, North Dakota to 27.9' yesterday, just an inch short of the highest crest on record (28.0' on 4/01/1912.) Tributaries to the Missouri, such as the Souris River in North Dakota and the North Platte River in Nebraska, are already flooding at all-time record heights. With warm summer temperatures and additional rainfall expected over much of the area during the coming week, snow melt and rain runoff will swell area rivers even further, creating a damaging 100-year flood. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has the details in his latest post, and I will be writing more on this latest epic flood next week.

I'll have a new post on Monday, or earlier if the Caribbean disturbance shows significant development.

Jeff Masters

Joplin Tornado Damage (thebige)
Joplin Tornado Damage
And Bigger.... (weatherfanatic2010)
Here it is turning into a monster.
And Bigger....

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so in other words it takes a person that is the same as the other person to know and say what he is

my brain hurts.....
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Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI






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522. IKE

Quoting NRAamy:
don't just lurk, IKE


come on in! the water's fine!!!!!

:)
Just popped a bag of microwave popcorn. Little salt.

Now I'm set.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
lurking has benefits! You can skip around, watch a little TV, then go back and hit the high points
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Quoting kmanislander:


That is certainly possible but conditions aloft would have to be much better than they are now over a much larger swath of the basin. 94L got going this afternoon because it drifted East into that pocket of very low shear that was just out of reach yesterday. The NW Caribbean in our area is still quite hostile.


I don't know where it is going but it does show shear decreasing in the NW Caribbean.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8266
515. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 9:22 PM GMT on June 03, 2011
models are meant to be used for guidance purposes only and donot depict final outcome to any one single event things can and will change.


please drive thru....
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

nope but what can I say when the same person calling me a wishcaster was just calling it a fish storm just remeber what yous say is what you are so in other words it takes a person that is the same as the other person to know and say what he is


you lost me at hello
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Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10967
don't just lurk, IKE


come on in! the water's fine!!!!!

:)
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models are meant to be used for guidance purposes only and donot depict final outcome to any one single event things can and will change.
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514. IKE
***Comedy hour on the blog***

I'm enjoying lurk mode:)
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Wishcasting?

nope but what can I say when the same person calling me a wishcaster was just calling it a fish storm just remeber what yous say is what you are so in other words it takes a person that is the same as the other person to know and say what he is
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 10909
So I see 94L is improving. It looks to see some favorable conditions for development, and if it is supposed to stay stationary that would improve it's chances further and change it's track dynamic. Could be an interesting start to the 2011 hurricane season.
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94L does not have banding features. It's still disorganized. What you see to the SW is a tail of convection associated with a surface trough.

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Quoting spathy:


Dookie
I think the delay in the rainy season is partly my fault.
I replaced my front lawn with a new type of grass.
Thus the delay in the rains.
Not to mention the water I put on the lawn is draining through the center of the earth and helping flood some other area of the World.


+1000
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Wishcasting?


Coming from the person that just said that 94L was a fish storm.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

they both show a WNW-NW movement and this direction of its movement seem to be more lets put it realistic


Wishcasting?
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Quoting kmanislander:


That is certainly possible but conditions aloft would have to be much better than they are now over a much larger swath of the basin. 94L got going this afternoon because it drifted East into that pocket of very low shear that was just out of reach yesterday. The NW Caribbean in our area is still quite hostile.

yeah I know but not for long
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 10909
Quoting spathy:


Dookie
I think the delay in the rainy season is partly my fault.
I replaced my front lawn with a new type of grass.
Thus the delay in the rains.
Not to mention the water I put on the lawn is draining through the center of the earth and helping flood some other area of the World.


Your joke was distasteful and ignorant therefore i award no points and may god have mercy on your soul.
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94L will likely be 40 or 50% due to lack of wind shear, better defined surface low, and circulation... and convectional organization + banding forming
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:


What do you mean?

they both show a WNW-NW movement and this direction of its movement seem to be more lets put it realistic
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 10909
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


yeah more so that steering shows a WNW-NW movement when it gets moving man we could be seeing a moderat to strong TS by mid to late week next week in the NW Caribbean


That is certainly possible but conditions aloft would have to be much better than they are now over a much larger swath of the basin. 94L got going this afternoon because it drifted East into that pocket of very low shear that was just out of reach yesterday. The NW Caribbean in our area is still quite hostile.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15707
Quoting 7544:


here u go Link


Thanks!
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Quoting kmanislander:


They won't mean much. With a system that will be essentially stationary for several days the models will be out to lunch until an established motion in a particular direction commences.


Thanks - I am fairly new to this.
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500. 7544
Quoting galvestonhurricane:
Could someone post the latest model runs? Sorry if they have already been posted.


here u go Link
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XX/INV/94L
MARK
16.34N/77.45W

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Quoting kmanislander:


That is not good, especially if the high overhead really becomes established.


yeah more so that steering shows a WNW-NW movement when it gets moving man we could be seeing a moderat to strong TS by mid to late week next week in the NW Caribbean
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 10909
Caribbean - Visible Loop
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:
Could someone post the latest model runs? Sorry if they have already been posted.


They won't mean much. With a system that will be essentially stationary for several days the models will be out to lunch until an established motion in a particular direction commences.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15707
I just got on, and it appears we now have 94L, as I'm sure all of you know. I like the models. They seem to say "Yes, it's going to go... in some direction. Maybe."
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493. JRRP
Quoting galvestonhurricane:
Invest 94L is looking like the first fish storm of the year.

fish????
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492. xcool
94L MOVEing nne
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For those of you who lost bookmarks or want more links to track the 94L and the rest of the tropics, check out this site.

I think 94L will be bumped up to 30% at the next TWO.
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Could someone post the latest model runs? Sorry if they have already been posted.
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94L Dvorak


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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
94L model run I will go with the BAMS and the CLP5


What do you mean?
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Quoting beell:


Hey, Miami,
Covergence/Divergence is lining up pretty well. I beat ya by a few seconds on the graphics, lol.

Surface convergence is excellent.

Made the following graphic yesterday during a conversation with a blogger in Puerto Rico regarding his concern for potentially heavy rain. I think it illustrates the very good (better than "normal") surface convergence and very good upward motion as a result over the area. With the exhaust vent (anticyclone) overhead of course. We may even see this try to consolidate a bit to the NE in response.

Yesterday's 12Z GFS-Valid 00Z Saturday

Photobucket
Hey beell! I agree, the circulation naturally will want to be under the convective activity, so a relocation further towards the northeast under the stronger convection and divergence/convergence is definitely possible. 21z CIMSS update should be coming out any minute, should be interesting where the anticyclone is and how divergence/convergence is doing.
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469. stormwatcherCI 8:58 PM GMT on June 03, 2011
Quoting hurricaneben:


Funny, I have the same feeling. But improve the grammer a tad, please LOL.




Please don't do that. Not everyone is perfect in English. We all understand him so leave it alone. His posts are valuable on here. Thanks. Grammer is actually spelled grammar.




+100
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Quoting IKE:
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 PM EDT FRI JUN 03 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 16N77W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM E CUBA SW THROUGH THE LOW TO W PANAMA WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A TROPICAL WAVE S OF 17N
ALONG 56W IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN
SAT AND SUN BEFORE LIFTING NE MON THROUGH WED.


That is not good, especially if the high overhead really becomes established.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15707
483. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 PM EDT FRI JUN 03 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 16N77W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM E CUBA SW THROUGH THE LOW TO W PANAMA WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A TROPICAL WAVE S OF 17N
ALONG 56W IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN
SAT AND SUN BEFORE LIFTING NE MON THROUGH WED.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting stormwatcherCI:


I agree with that movement. Stationary/meandering. I do not see it moving ENE.
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Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8266
Looking at the big picture, you can see this thing has the whole Caribbean rotating. It's pulling in low level clouds across the whole Caribbean Sea. Although it has a ways to go, I'm impressed with today's improvements.
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Well, within an hour or so of me saying this system was looking good for the first time it gets tagged LOL

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15707
94L model run I will go with the BAMS and the CLP5
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 10909
Quoting j2008:
Im thinking 94 will be TD 1 by tommorow at latest.


Hey, hey, hey, give it time.
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476. JLPR2
Quoting galvestonhurricane:
Invest 94L is looking like the first fish storm of the year.


Fish Storms 101:

1st rule: To be a fish storm a tropical system must develop and move out to sea without touching or affecting land areas.
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475. xcool
hurricaneben:
lmaooo
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Please don't do that. Not everyone is perfect in English. We all understand him so leave it alone. His posts are valuable on here. Thanks. Grammer is actually spelled grammar.


I know, I know, nobody's perfect anyways.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.