Caribbean disturbance slow to develop; 5 EF-5 tornadoes this year confirmed

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:33 PM GMT on June 03, 2011

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The tropical disturbance (Invest 93L) that crossed over Florida on Wednesday, bringing welcome rains of 1 - 3 inches, is now a naked swirl of low clouds over the central Gulf of Mexico. The disturbance is embedded in a large area of dry air associated with an upper level low pressure system, and this dry air is discouraging development. 93L is also moving into a region of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and NHC is giving 93L a 0% chance of developing into a tropical depression before the storm makes landfall in Mexico south of Brownsville on Saturday. There are a few heavy thunderstorms trying to fire up near the center of 93L's fairly well-formed circulation, but I don't think this storm is going to bring more than 1 - 2 inches of rain to the coast on Saturday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance.

Central Caribbean disturbance 94L
Disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity continues in the region between Central America and Jamaica. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and is predicted to continue to fall over the next two days. This should allow the disturbance, dubbed Invest 94L by NHC on Friday afternoon, to increase in organization, though it will take many days for it to approach tropical depression status, since it is so large and poorly organized. The last two runs of the NOGAPS model have developed the disturbance into a tropical depression or storm by early next week, with the system moving northwards into Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and eastern Cuba. The other major models do not show the disturbance developing during the coming week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. A surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave may aid development when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Sunday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Residents of Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them today through Sunday.

Five EF-5 tornadoes confirmed in 2011
The National Weather Service in Oklahoma City announced Wednesday that the violent tornado that hit Binger, El Reno, Peidmont, and Guthrie, Oklahoma on May 24, killing nine people, was an EF-5 with winds greater than 210 mph. The rating was given based on measurements made by a University of Oklahoma portable "Doppler on wheels" radar. The long track, large wedge tornado caused extensive damage, with well built houses cleanly swept from their foundation and trees debarked. This tornado brings the total number of EF-5 tornadoes this year to five, tying 2011 with 1953 for 2nd place for greatest number of these top-end tornadoes in one year. Only 1974 (six) had more. The EF-5 tornadoes of 2011:

1) The April 27, 2011 Neshoba/Kemper/Winston/Noxubee Counties, Mississippi tornado (3 killed, 29 mile path length.)

2) The April 27, 2011 Smithville, Mississippi tornado (22 killed, 15 mile path length.)

3) The April 27, 2011 Hackleburg, Alabama tornado (71 killed, 25 mile path length.)

4) The May 22, 2011 Joplin Missouri tornado (138 killed, 14 mile path length.)

5) The May 24, 2011 Binger-El Reno-Peidmont-Guthrie, Oklahoma tornado. (9 killed, 75 mile path length.)


Figure 2. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.

A few other remarkable statistics on the tornado season of 2011, compiled from NOAA's official press release and Wikipedia's excellent tornado pages:

- The April 25 - 28 tornado outbreak, with 330 tornadoes, was the largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record. The previous record was 148 tornadoes, set during the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak.

- For April 27, 186 tornadoes have been confirmed. This is the largest 1-day tornado total on record, beating the 148 recorded in 24 hours on April 3 - 4, 1974.

- The April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak, with 162 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the fourth largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record.

- The May 21 - 26 tornado outbreak, with 158 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the 5th largest 6-day or shorter tornado outbreak on record. A May 2003 6-day outbreak had 289 tornadoes, and a May 2004 6-day outbreak had 229 tornadoes. The year 2011 now has three of the top five tornado outbreaks on record.

- April confirmed tornado total was 683, making it the busiest tornado month on record. The previous record was 542 tornadoes, set in May 2003. The previous April record was 267 tornadoes, which occurred in April 1974. The 30-year average for April tornadoes is 135.

- If the three deaths in Massachusetts from Wednesday's tornadoes are confirmed, this year's tornado death toll will be 522, beating 1953 as the deadliest tornado year since modern tornado records began. That year, 519 people died, and three heavily populated cities received direct hits by violent tornadoes. Waco, Texas (114 killed), Flint, Michigan (115 killed), and Worcester, Massachusetts (90 killed) all were hit by violent F-4 or F-5 tornadoes. A similar bad tornado year occurred in 1936, when violent tornadoes hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.) During that time period, the tornado death rate per million people was 60 - 70 times as great as in the year 2000 (Figure 4), implying that this year's tornadoes would have killed many thousands of people had we not had our modern tornado modern warning system.

- The May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado killed 138 people and injured 1150, making it the deadliest U.S. tornado since 1947, and 8th deadliest in history. The $1 - $3 billion estimate of insured damage makes it the most expensive tornado in history.

- Damage from the April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak was estimated at $3.5 - $6 billion, making it the most expensive tornado outbreak of all-time.

- The tornado that hit Springfield, Massachusetts on June 1 was at least an EF-3 with 136 - 165 mph winds. It was only the 9th EF-3 or stronger tornado to hit Massachusetts since 1950, and the third deadliest, with three deaths.

- The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965 for highest number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4, and EF-5 tornadoes (Figure 3.)


Figure 3. Number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of these most dangerous of tornadoes. Image credit: NOAA/National Climatic Data Center (updated using stats for 2008 - 2011 from Wikipedia.)


Figure 4. Death rate per million people per year in U.S., 1875-2000. Thin line with dots is raw rate, curved thick line is death rate, filtered by 3-point median and 5-point running mean filter, and straight solid lines are least squares fit to filtered death rate for 1875-1925 and 1925-2000. Dashed lines are estimates of 10th and 90th percentile death rates from 1925-2000. The death rate fell from 8 per million to .12 per million between 1940 and 2000. Image credit: A Brief History of Deaths from Tornadoes in the United States, Harold Brooks and Charles Doswell III.

Joplin tornado the 7th U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster of 2011
The Joplin tornado is the 7th U.S. weather disaster of 2011 costing more than a billion dollars. With a major flooding disaster coming on the Missouri River, and hurricane season still to come, 2011 has an excellent chance of beating 2008's record of nine billion-dollar weather disasters. The billion dollar weather disasters of 2011 so far:

1) 2011 Groundhog Day's blizzard ($1- $4 billion)
2) April 3 -5 Southeast U.S. severe weather outbreak ($2 billion)
3) April 8 - 11 severe weather outbreak ($2.25 billion)
4) April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak ($3.5 - $6 billion)
5) Mississippi River flood of 2011 ($9 billion)
6) Texas drought ($1.2 billion)
7) Joplin tornado ($1 - $3 billion)


Figure 5. River flood outlook for the U.S. Image credit: NOAA.

The next U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster: a Missouri River flood?
A great 100-year flood has arrived along the Missouri River and its tributaries from Montana to Nebraska. Record spring rains, combined with snow melt from record or near-record winter and spring snows, brought the Missouri River at Williston, North Dakota to 27.9' yesterday, just an inch short of the highest crest on record (28.0' on 4/01/1912.) Tributaries to the Missouri, such as the Souris River in North Dakota and the North Platte River in Nebraska, are already flooding at all-time record heights. With warm summer temperatures and additional rainfall expected over much of the area during the coming week, snow melt and rain runoff will swell area rivers even further, creating a damaging 100-year flood. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has the details in his latest post, and I will be writing more on this latest epic flood next week.

I'll have a new post on Monday, or earlier if the Caribbean disturbance shows significant development.

Jeff Masters

Joplin Tornado Damage (thebige)
Joplin Tornado Damage
And Bigger.... (weatherfanatic2010)
Here it is turning into a monster.
And Bigger....

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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ackee:
what will become of 94L ?

A TD
B TS
C Open wave
D Dssipate


B
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting tropicfreak:


That blob off NC and SC is blob #2 of the 2011 hurricane season.


yep. blob central..ripe for development..






Member Since: Posts: Comments:
871. ackee
what will become of 94L ?

A TD
B TS
C Open wave
D Dssipate
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
LOL at 18z HWRF for 94L
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
869. SLU
582

WHXX01 KWBC 040017

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0017 UTC SAT JUN 4 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942011) 20110604 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110604 0000 110604 1200 110605 0000 110605 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 16.3N 77.8W 16.8N 78.2W 16.9N 79.0W 17.0N 80.3W

BAMD 16.3N 77.8W 17.1N 77.7W 17.4N 77.9W 17.6N 78.4W

BAMM 16.3N 77.8W 16.8N 78.0W 16.9N 78.5W 16.9N 79.5W

LBAR 16.3N 77.8W 16.9N 77.8W 17.9N 77.7W 19.0N 77.2W

SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 36KTS 39KTS

DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 36KTS 39KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110606 0000 110607 0000 110608 0000 110609 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 16.9N 81.1W 16.5N 82.1W 16.4N 82.9W 16.6N 84.0W

BAMD 17.8N 79.0W 18.8N 79.9W 20.9N 77.8W 23.3N 73.1W

BAMM 17.0N 80.4W 17.2N 81.5W 17.6N 81.9W 18.6N 82.5W

LBAR 20.2N 75.9W 22.1N 70.5W 26.4N 60.9W .0N .0W

SHIP 43KTS 52KTS 47KTS 37KTS

DSHP 43KTS 52KTS 47KTS 37KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 16.3N LONCUR = 77.8W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT

LATM12 = 16.0N LONM12 = 77.7W DIRM12 = 50DEG SPDM12 = 3KT

LATM24 = 15.5N LONM24 = 79.2W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
94L Update:
Sustained Wind Estimates: 30 MPH
Direction: Stationary At: 0-1 MPH
Pressure: 1007 Millibars
Probability Of Development: 30% in the next 48 Hours
Notes:
94L is becoming more defined today. Organization has increased as well as convection with the center. The Circulation itself has became better defined today, and banding is beginning to occur. Depending on how organization continues the chance of 94L forming will increase.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
First time in a while, rain, now the biggest question is what is going to happen with this system. Whats the forecast for troughs right now?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Joanie38:


HI LEVI !!! :):):)


Hey Joanie :)
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Plenty of dry air to the west of the system (one of the reasons the system is lopsided with convection mainly to the east of the circulation).



But not the main reason, main reason is wind shear, and that has dropped some. I don't see a whole lot of dry air, if any being entrained into this thing
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting tropicfreak:


Levi, RPM has 94L moving very slowly west in the next 60 hours, is that reliable?


The GFS shows that as well. A slow drift west or northwest is likely once the low gets caught south of the ridge.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting tropicfreak:


94L is nowhere near dry air, closest area of dry air is in the gulf.
Plenty of dry air to the west of the system (one of the reasons the system is lopsided with convection mainly to the east of the circulation).

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting mikeylikesyouall:
I wonder how the Bermuda high is going to play on the cape verde systems this year , will they go out to sea into the northern caribean/gom or up the atlantic seaboard.What do u guys think, that familiar c recurvature is a nightmare for all on the east coast, i couldn't imagine some large city like New york or Boston getting creammed with a major hurricane as it begins to go even into its extra tropical transition in the higher latitudes.If it wasn't Earl last year getting alot of dry air sucked into that storm when it did we would have been ruined here where i live in Nova Scotia, that was a north east eyewall that passed over Halifax or what was left over of Earl
There's still a lot of room for speculation about the location and strength of the AB high, though IIRC it's supposed to be a bit beefier than last year according to forecasts. It's been a while since the coast between NJ and NH has had a hit from a major, and if the water stays warm enough up the coast we could see hurricane landfall before the extratropical transition even begins. However, there are a lot of different factors that need to fall into place before we see a scenario like that come together. Will it happen this year? Nobody knows...

Quoting FrankZapper:
I see no reason why this season should be a blockbuster. There will be less activity than last year. If we were to move into a weak El Nino, which is possible in these times of climate instability, then it will be even quieter. Don't fall for these predictions by Dr Gray.
Hmmm.... why do you sound so much like somebody I used to know who used to be around when there were some guys posting about tunnels and such????

Enquiring minds are reading about 94L, but the rest of us have a certain laconic curiousity thing going....

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good evening. Looks like we have some activity on the 2nd day of hurricane season.

Time for my annual hurricane forecast prediction.

Here was my forecast from last year(you can check my blog if you don't believe me) actual season totals are in parentheses

Named Storms:19(19)
Hurricanes:11(12)
Major Hurricanes:6(5)


2011 Hurricane Season forecast

Named Storms:17
Hurricanes:9
Major Hurricanes:6

Key points of forecast
1. High SST's- above normal
2. Lower than average pressure expected over MDR during peak months
3. Weak La Nina/ Neutral Enso typically translate to active seasons
4.I strongly take into consideration NOAA and CSU predictions and add some independent thought
5.just an amateur take everything with grain of salt
6. I have a feeling most hurricanes this season will be majors
7. ITCZ farther north than climatalogical average
8. I expect at least one U.S. landfall this season: reasons including active tornado season and neutral ENSO increases landfall probablities

Everyone be prepared and stay safe!!!!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Levi, ive noticed the CMC jump back on... and the other models are sort of showing somewhat interest... The Ukmet shows a Broad low through out the run, Gfs has lost it, EMCWF has it for a while then drops it as a broad low, Nam has also joined the model train...
So models supporting 94L:
NOGAPS, CMC, NAM, GGEM(Global Model, Not Much Worth To supporting it)

Models Supporting Low to form North of Puerto Rico:
CMC, NOGAPS, GFS, GGEM(again, not worth much, but good to have a model not really in the main global models, i guess)


Honestly, the CMC showing two closed isobars means nothing. It has to show a 990mb storm for me to believe it's solidly onboard with development in this situation.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting j2008:
Huh....94 vs dry air, wonder how well 94 can deal with it.


94L is nowhere near dry air, closest area of dry air is in the gulf.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Most Models have brought 94L west and then recurving it at the very end just south of Florida or hitting South Florida.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
857. j2008
Huh....94 vs dry air, wonder how well 94 can deal with it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Good evening.


HI LEVI !!! :):):)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Winds are up:

AL, 94, 2011060400, , BEST, 0, 163N, 778W, 25, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 180, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
94L RGB to Night IR Loop
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FrankZapper:
Yes they all follow Gray's lead. Can anyone remember a year where any group differed significantly with him?
All forecasts tend to look at mainly the same factors (SSTs, ENSO, PDO, NAO, QBO, etc...) hence the reason that most forecasts are rather similar.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Levi, ive noticed the CMC jump back on... and the other models are sort of showing somewhat interest... The Ukmet shows a Broad low through out the run, Gfs has lost it, EMCWF has it for a while then drops it as a broad low, Nam has also joined the model train...
So models supporting 94L:
NOGAPS, CMC, NAM, GGEM(Global Model, Not Much Worth To supporting it)

Models Supporting Low to form North of Puerto Rico:
CMC, NOGAPS, GFS, GGEM(again, not worth much, but good to have a model not really in the main global models, i guess)


Levi, RPM has 94L moving very slowly west in the next 60 hours, is that reliable?
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting ncstorm:
We may see development off the NC/SC coast before 94L becomes a depression. The waters are very warm and it seems the littliest thunderstorms migrate into some type of tropical entity when they hit that gulf stream..GFS and Nogaps have been picking up some lows off both of those coasts..


That blob off NC and SC is blob #2 of the 2011 hurricane season.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting FrankZapper:
Yes they all follow Gray's lead. Can anyone remember a year where any group differed significantly with him?
Yeah, because everyone bases they're forecasts after him.

oh boy
Quoting Levi32:


If you read his final entry, he said he was leaving because of his new family and life in general.

darn. well, good for him at least.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
Levi, ive noticed the CMC jump back on... and the other models are sort of showing somewhat interest... The Ukmet shows a Broad low through out the run, Gfs has lost it, EMCWF has it for a while then drops it as a broad low, Nam has also joined the model train...
So models supporting 94L:
NOGAPS, CMC, NAM, GGEM(Global Model, Not Much Worth To supporting it)

Models Supporting Low to form North of Puerto Rico:
CMC, NOGAPS, GFS, GGEM(again, not worth much, but good to have a model not really in the main global models, i guess)
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
848. xcool
FLPandhandleJG cool
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We may see development off the NC/SC coast before 94L becomes a depression. The waters are very warm and it seems the littliest thunderstorms migrate into some type of tropical entity when they hit that gulf stream..GFS and Nogaps have been picking up some lows off both of those coasts..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TomTaylor:

evenin levi.

I heard you mention Weather456 this morning and I was wondering if you knew where he went by any chance


If you read his final entry, he said he was leaving because of his new family and life in general.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting TomTaylor:
CSU are not the only one's calling for those numbers...

NOAA 15-9-4.5
FSU 17-9-?
PSU 16-?-?
PSU new experimental run 19-?-?
TSR 14.2-7.6-3.6
UKMET 13-?-?

and CSU calls for 16-9-5, which is pretty much right in the middle
Yes they all follow Gray's lead. Can anyone remember a year where any group differed significantly with him?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CosmicEvents:
We have IKE wishcasting now!
Aye carumba. Has the world turned on it's axis?
It has been exceptionally dry in a lot of places. Lack of water can cause crazy talk......


True about the lack of water Cosmic, i don't blame Ike one bit for wanting rain, we want it here in the Cayman also!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting homewoodweather589:

thank you, also what are you thought on the path of this system or is it just too early to tell at this point


See #839. It will probably reverse its current motion and curve back to the northwest slowly over the next few days.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
everyone else has already posted links
do you want other links??

because i got a stockpile of links
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
Quoting xcool:
FLPandhandleJG college and working .u

same.. i try to get on here when i can.. just too busy.. have a few days off and I am relaxing.. lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ike, I appreciate all you do, all season long, year after year, to add some balance to the exuberance. In your way, it's perfect. Yet, when the situation calls for it, like IKE, you're all business. Keep it up, you're an MVP on this board.
.
.
.

.Unruly, and PSFL....I'm fine, and nice to see you both again. I try to keep the hi's and byes to a minimum on the main blog......it can clog the blog even though it has the best of intentions.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


you think this goes towards the GOM?


Well, given that it has waited this long, and the system should still be around next week, it is possible that the ridge will shift far enough east to open a window into the GOM, but it will remain a block for some time yet. By Wednesday next week and onward, the GOM may be open, but of course that will depend on where 94L is at that time as well, and if it's still around. It could also easily curve back northeast out to sea across Cuba, making that "S" path I talked about a couple days ago.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
everyone else has already posted links
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting eyestalker:

Everyone poof this troll. Please!!!
Son, you really have some problems. What is your take on the season Einstein?
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wow that was convient... LOL thanks
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Can someone give me the Link to Hwrf and/or Gfdl for 94L?
sure
Link #1

Link #2
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
Quoting FrankZapper:
I see no reason why this season should be a blockbuster. There will be less activity than last year. If we were to move into a weak El Nino, which is possible in these times of climate instability, then it will be even quieter. Don't fall for these predictions by Dr Gray.


Um there were 19 storms last year

most of the seasons would be less active than last year, does not mean it will not be active

and its landfalls that matter not number of storms

last year we had 19 storms and only 1 TS hit the US; this year we could only have 13 storms but 4 hit the US

Tell me then; which season would be worse?
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832. xcool
FLPandhandleJG college and working .u
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
94L could cause extensive damage to the greater antilles, Specially Jamaica, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, with lots amounts or rain in an already saturate terrain. The movement ENE will bring the system towards us, doesn't seem to be a threat to Florida as climatology would indicate.


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Quoting Levi32:
Good evening.

evenin levi.

I heard you mention Weather456 this morning and I was wondering if you knew where he went by any chance
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
Quoting xcool:
FLPandhandleJG lol hey pimp #@


hey scott.. whats up mane.. how u been..
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Quoting Levi32:


Thank you. I appreciate it.

94L looks more organized, but still broad and weighted to the eastern side. As upper ridging spreads northwest over the next 3 days I expect it will continue to gradually organize. I don't see any reason not to expect this to have a good shot at becoming a tropical depression eventually. The lack of model support is glaring, but it has happened before, and the model consensus is far from always right. The meteorology suggests this is a threat to slowly develop, and that is mainly what my opinion will be based on.


you think this goes towards the GOM?
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Can someone give me the Link to Hwrf and/or Gfdl for 94L?
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
18Z HWRF


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Quoting FrankZapper:
I see no reason why this season should be a blockbuster. There will be less activity than last year. If we were to move into a weak El Nino, which is possible in these times of climate instability, then it will be even quieter. Don't fall for these predictions by Dr Gray.
CSU are not the only one's calling for those numbers...

NOAA 15-9-4.5
FSU 17-9-?
PSU 16-?-?
PSU new experimental run 19-?-?
TSR 14.2-7.6-3.6
UKMET 13-?-?

and CSU calls for 16-9-5, which is pretty much right in the middle
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
HWRF forecasting Hurricane Alrene as it scoots off to the NE:

Link
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