Caribbean disturbance slow to develop; 5 EF-5 tornadoes this year confirmed

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:33 PM GMT on June 03, 2011

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The tropical disturbance (Invest 93L) that crossed over Florida on Wednesday, bringing welcome rains of 1 - 3 inches, is now a naked swirl of low clouds over the central Gulf of Mexico. The disturbance is embedded in a large area of dry air associated with an upper level low pressure system, and this dry air is discouraging development. 93L is also moving into a region of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and NHC is giving 93L a 0% chance of developing into a tropical depression before the storm makes landfall in Mexico south of Brownsville on Saturday. There are a few heavy thunderstorms trying to fire up near the center of 93L's fairly well-formed circulation, but I don't think this storm is going to bring more than 1 - 2 inches of rain to the coast on Saturday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance.

Central Caribbean disturbance 94L
Disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity continues in the region between Central America and Jamaica. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and is predicted to continue to fall over the next two days. This should allow the disturbance, dubbed Invest 94L by NHC on Friday afternoon, to increase in organization, though it will take many days for it to approach tropical depression status, since it is so large and poorly organized. The last two runs of the NOGAPS model have developed the disturbance into a tropical depression or storm by early next week, with the system moving northwards into Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and eastern Cuba. The other major models do not show the disturbance developing during the coming week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. A surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave may aid development when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Sunday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Residents of Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them today through Sunday.

Five EF-5 tornadoes confirmed in 2011
The National Weather Service in Oklahoma City announced Wednesday that the violent tornado that hit Binger, El Reno, Peidmont, and Guthrie, Oklahoma on May 24, killing nine people, was an EF-5 with winds greater than 210 mph. The rating was given based on measurements made by a University of Oklahoma portable "Doppler on wheels" radar. The long track, large wedge tornado caused extensive damage, with well built houses cleanly swept from their foundation and trees debarked. This tornado brings the total number of EF-5 tornadoes this year to five, tying 2011 with 1953 for 2nd place for greatest number of these top-end tornadoes in one year. Only 1974 (six) had more. The EF-5 tornadoes of 2011:

1) The April 27, 2011 Neshoba/Kemper/Winston/Noxubee Counties, Mississippi tornado (3 killed, 29 mile path length.)

2) The April 27, 2011 Smithville, Mississippi tornado (22 killed, 15 mile path length.)

3) The April 27, 2011 Hackleburg, Alabama tornado (71 killed, 25 mile path length.)

4) The May 22, 2011 Joplin Missouri tornado (138 killed, 14 mile path length.)

5) The May 24, 2011 Binger-El Reno-Peidmont-Guthrie, Oklahoma tornado. (9 killed, 75 mile path length.)


Figure 2. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.

A few other remarkable statistics on the tornado season of 2011, compiled from NOAA's official press release and Wikipedia's excellent tornado pages:

- The April 25 - 28 tornado outbreak, with 330 tornadoes, was the largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record. The previous record was 148 tornadoes, set during the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak.

- For April 27, 186 tornadoes have been confirmed. This is the largest 1-day tornado total on record, beating the 148 recorded in 24 hours on April 3 - 4, 1974.

- The April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak, with 162 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the fourth largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record.

- The May 21 - 26 tornado outbreak, with 158 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the 5th largest 6-day or shorter tornado outbreak on record. A May 2003 6-day outbreak had 289 tornadoes, and a May 2004 6-day outbreak had 229 tornadoes. The year 2011 now has three of the top five tornado outbreaks on record.

- April confirmed tornado total was 683, making it the busiest tornado month on record. The previous record was 542 tornadoes, set in May 2003. The previous April record was 267 tornadoes, which occurred in April 1974. The 30-year average for April tornadoes is 135.

- If the three deaths in Massachusetts from Wednesday's tornadoes are confirmed, this year's tornado death toll will be 522, beating 1953 as the deadliest tornado year since modern tornado records began. That year, 519 people died, and three heavily populated cities received direct hits by violent tornadoes. Waco, Texas (114 killed), Flint, Michigan (115 killed), and Worcester, Massachusetts (90 killed) all were hit by violent F-4 or F-5 tornadoes. A similar bad tornado year occurred in 1936, when violent tornadoes hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.) During that time period, the tornado death rate per million people was 60 - 70 times as great as in the year 2000 (Figure 4), implying that this year's tornadoes would have killed many thousands of people had we not had our modern tornado modern warning system.

- The May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado killed 138 people and injured 1150, making it the deadliest U.S. tornado since 1947, and 8th deadliest in history. The $1 - $3 billion estimate of insured damage makes it the most expensive tornado in history.

- Damage from the April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak was estimated at $3.5 - $6 billion, making it the most expensive tornado outbreak of all-time.

- The tornado that hit Springfield, Massachusetts on June 1 was at least an EF-3 with 136 - 165 mph winds. It was only the 9th EF-3 or stronger tornado to hit Massachusetts since 1950, and the third deadliest, with three deaths.

- The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965 for highest number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4, and EF-5 tornadoes (Figure 3.)


Figure 3. Number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of these most dangerous of tornadoes. Image credit: NOAA/National Climatic Data Center (updated using stats for 2008 - 2011 from Wikipedia.)


Figure 4. Death rate per million people per year in U.S., 1875-2000. Thin line with dots is raw rate, curved thick line is death rate, filtered by 3-point median and 5-point running mean filter, and straight solid lines are least squares fit to filtered death rate for 1875-1925 and 1925-2000. Dashed lines are estimates of 10th and 90th percentile death rates from 1925-2000. The death rate fell from 8 per million to .12 per million between 1940 and 2000. Image credit: A Brief History of Deaths from Tornadoes in the United States, Harold Brooks and Charles Doswell III.

Joplin tornado the 7th U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster of 2011
The Joplin tornado is the 7th U.S. weather disaster of 2011 costing more than a billion dollars. With a major flooding disaster coming on the Missouri River, and hurricane season still to come, 2011 has an excellent chance of beating 2008's record of nine billion-dollar weather disasters. The billion dollar weather disasters of 2011 so far:

1) 2011 Groundhog Day's blizzard ($1- $4 billion)
2) April 3 -5 Southeast U.S. severe weather outbreak ($2 billion)
3) April 8 - 11 severe weather outbreak ($2.25 billion)
4) April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak ($3.5 - $6 billion)
5) Mississippi River flood of 2011 ($9 billion)
6) Texas drought ($1.2 billion)
7) Joplin tornado ($1 - $3 billion)


Figure 5. River flood outlook for the U.S. Image credit: NOAA.

The next U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster: a Missouri River flood?
A great 100-year flood has arrived along the Missouri River and its tributaries from Montana to Nebraska. Record spring rains, combined with snow melt from record or near-record winter and spring snows, brought the Missouri River at Williston, North Dakota to 27.9' yesterday, just an inch short of the highest crest on record (28.0' on 4/01/1912.) Tributaries to the Missouri, such as the Souris River in North Dakota and the North Platte River in Nebraska, are already flooding at all-time record heights. With warm summer temperatures and additional rainfall expected over much of the area during the coming week, snow melt and rain runoff will swell area rivers even further, creating a damaging 100-year flood. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has the details in his latest post, and I will be writing more on this latest epic flood next week.

I'll have a new post on Monday, or earlier if the Caribbean disturbance shows significant development.

Jeff Masters

Joplin Tornado Damage (thebige)
Joplin Tornado Damage
And Bigger.... (weatherfanatic2010)
Here it is turning into a monster.
And Bigger....

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so .... he gets insulted the retaliates in spanish.....


How ya been JFV?
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.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114071
1222. xcool
cchsweatherman-plus you can use Buoy Center.find wind
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xcool are you from the states?
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Quoting GoldenPanther2011:


How could you tell?


With a surface wind from the NW over Jamaica that was reported 15 minutes ago, a surface wind out to sea towards the west reporting from the NNE, and a surface wind from the south to the S to the southeast of Jamaica, it suggests the center of the circulation should be to the southwest of Jamaica.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5030
Quoting GoldenPanther2011:
Sorry about your ban, Aussie, that's crazy stuff, how dare the admin, lol, =(. At least you're back now. Hopefully that won't leave you with any resentment towards this site now, cause we really like having you here. You're like our meteorologist from Australia, =). Stick around, would ya?



you sould t even be talking about sorry about the ban you sound t even be posting here


has you keep bypassing bans
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114071
1216. xcool
im lol so hard rite now
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Quoting GoldenPanther2011:


Scott, may you please post the GFS? You simply cannot disregard the run, all because the model doesn't turn 94L into a mighty hurricane, I don't get the logic behind that, or lack thereof, better said, =).




you been reported too wuonderground admin for bypassong a bans
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114071
Quoting CatfishJones:


Have you ever put a CD on a dremel and pushed it off with a pencil or like object?


No.

Will someone please tell me what does it say?
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Current surface observations per WunderMap support the position of the low with Invest 94L shown by the most recent ASCAT pass. Expect a relocation of Invest 94L to the west by about 50 miles putting the low to the southwest of Jamaica, not south of Jamaica.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5030
1211. xcool
VAbeachhurricanes ohhh
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Quoting xcool:
GoldenPanther2011 do iknow you


its jfv
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1209. Bitmap7
Its something it does at cyclogenesis. I don't know what its problem is.
Member Since: May 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
1208. xcool
GoldenPanther2011 do iknow you
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Quoting msgambler:
Good evening, Water Puppy, Aussie, SouthAl, KOTG Gro....ohh heck too many to name hello everyone. And yes you are all a breed of your own. No pun intended Water Puppy

Good Afternoon, How's your little part of this little blue planet 3rd from the big fire ball. Weather nice i hope? Where ya from again?
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1205. xcool
;)~~~~~
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Look whos back
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1202. xcool
lmaoooo
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Quoting CatfishJones:


Have you ever put a CD on a dremel and pushed it off with a pencil or like object?


Haha, perfect way of explaining it.
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Quoting caneswatch:


What does it say?


Have you ever put a CD on a dremel and pushed it off with a pencil or like object?
Member Since: May 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 243
Good evening, Water Puppy, Aussie, SouthAl, KOTG Gro....ohh heck too many to name hello everyone. And yes you are all a breed of your own. No pun intended Water Puppy
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1198. JRRP
Link

i´m out
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Quoting xcool:
no need looking at GFS 00Z RUN


What does it say?
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1196. Walshy
Quoting xcool:
no need looking at GFS 00Z RUN



WOW
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Quoting AussieStorm:

So obviously people don't like getting info. Maybe I should just post a non-auto-play video next time.


That would be advisable. I could be called an infornographer, but even I found it annoying to have to pause a video that starts with ridiculous commercials every time I reload the page. That being said, I am undecided on whether it warranted a ban.

Member Since: May 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 243
1194. xcool
no need looking at GFS 00Z RUN
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1193. centex
Quoting snotly:
I don't hope to get banned but if I was I wonder if I would realize it. Sometimes my comments are more than 24 hrs apart.
Maybe they should ban you for your handle. It does not bring up good thoughts. Implies a negative attitude. But does not bother me. 24 hours would not bother me that much because this is days away from getting really interesting.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

well they did get removed. yet I guess they saw fit to give me a 24hr ban also. I guess people can swear on here and nothing happens yet i post an auto-play video and i get banned... something wrong with the standards there.
Aussie, watch what you say now. You don't want a permaband do you? Pretend you are in China.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i don't have a problem but rules of the road clearly state that if its to another site and is a disruption too the blog it is spam and could be removed or banned all together and thats what happenn i think you got hidden first by a lot and that lot added up too the auto ban

So obviously people don't like getting info. Maybe I should just post a non-auto-play video next time.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
found the low and it is fully closed



Guess ASCAT hit the money on this most recent pass. Definitely showing a weak, but defined closed low with Invest 94L. Surface observations for the most part also confirm this although not as well defined as with the ASCAT pass. Interesting to note that the low may be a little further west than the current coordinates place it based upon this pass.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5030
Quoting aquak9:
well aussie I am just glad you're back. Hope you don't get too upset and decide to leave for good.

ok, chocolate rain dreams for all- I'm really gone

I just wished they had better standards... swearing is allowed yet for what I did, I get banned,,, fair????
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1188. snotly
I don't hope to get banned but if I was I wonder if I would realize it. Sometimes my comments are more than 24 hrs apart.
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Aussie.
It's cuz you don't have an American name.
Sad but true, damn the bureaucracy!
;)
How's everyone faring tonight? Caribbean mischief seems to be moving on up.
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1186. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting AussieStorm:

Spamming,,, lol... i posted on 2 separate days for 2 separate shows. sorry for wanting to give more info on the blog.
i don't have a problem but rules of the road clearly state that if its to another site and is a disruption too the blog it is spam and could be removed or banned all together and thats what happenn i think you got hidden first by a lot and that lot added up too the auto ban
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1185. aquak9
well aussie I am just glad you're back. Hope you don't get too upset and decide to leave for good.

ok, chocolate rain dreams for all- I'm really gone
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25507
I dont know why they just dont remove it, no need to ban people
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Same thing happened to me Aussie, I was permanently banned for same thing you did, I managed to be able to get them to reconsider
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and the upper level anticyclone is right on top
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9595
Quoting aquak9:
aussie- I really think it was that live link that kept playing audio, it was pretty rough. But gee, they coulda just removed it, y'know? You're a great blogger here, classy, and it's cool to have someone form Australia.

eyes2sea- thank you. :)

Gotta hit the hay- I hope ya'll have happy playful dreams full of chocolate.

well they did get removed. yet I guess they saw fit to give me a 24hr ban also. I guess people can swear on here and nothing happens yet i post an auto-play video and i get banned... something wrong with the standards there.
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found the low and it is fully closed

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9595
1179. aquak9
aussie- I really think it was that live link that kept playing audio, it was pretty rough. But gee, they coulda just removed it, y'know? You're a great blogger here, classy, and it's cool to have someone form Australia.

eyes2sea- thank you. :)

Gotta hit the hay- I hope ya'll have happy playful dreams full of chocolate.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25507
1178. centex
I think navy post the data based on computer data when the the powers at be decide they need to adjust to watch a feature. When feature is kicking in they are early to notify, but same folks are slower to adjust to downgrades, less important.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
spamming the site with the vids that had an auto start may have been the problem don't post'em anymore and no problem

Spamming,,, lol... i posted on 2 separate days for 2 separate shows. sorry for wanting to give more info on the blog.
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1176. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting AussieStorm:
Hello all. Back after my 1st ever 24hr ban. no skin off my nose. was busy working and sleeping so I didn't miss much. Oh and sorry if I wanted to bring more infromation to this blog.
Any Idea why we still have 93L on the navy weather site? Are they worried it might blow up in the BOC or they just like keeping an eye on a almost naked swirl. Also noticed we finally have 94L. Has taken it a looong time to get going, finally we might get a track-able system out of it now.
spamming the site with the vids that had an auto start may have been the problem don't post'em anymore and no problem
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Quoting aquak9:
grothar- if all I had to do, was make people laugh, and cook them food? I would truly be a very happy person. Thank you my friend.

cosmic- a few feathers does not a duck make. :)


You're my kind of people, Aqua :)
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Quoting aquak9:
aussie!! you got banned?? musta been the video with the MTV commercial playing at the beginning. That was a simple mistake! geeez...guess I'll hafta post Recoon till I get banned too.

93L is gone from NHC, and a few feathers are growing on 94L.

Yeah little old me got banned. I guess the blog and admins didn't like me bringing in more info to the blog.
I guess it's ok to swear but not ok to bring more info onto the blog.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.