Caribbean disturbance slow to develop; 5 EF-5 tornadoes this year confirmed

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:33 PM GMT on June 03, 2011

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The tropical disturbance (Invest 93L) that crossed over Florida on Wednesday, bringing welcome rains of 1 - 3 inches, is now a naked swirl of low clouds over the central Gulf of Mexico. The disturbance is embedded in a large area of dry air associated with an upper level low pressure system, and this dry air is discouraging development. 93L is also moving into a region of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and NHC is giving 93L a 0% chance of developing into a tropical depression before the storm makes landfall in Mexico south of Brownsville on Saturday. There are a few heavy thunderstorms trying to fire up near the center of 93L's fairly well-formed circulation, but I don't think this storm is going to bring more than 1 - 2 inches of rain to the coast on Saturday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance.

Central Caribbean disturbance 94L
Disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity continues in the region between Central America and Jamaica. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and is predicted to continue to fall over the next two days. This should allow the disturbance, dubbed Invest 94L by NHC on Friday afternoon, to increase in organization, though it will take many days for it to approach tropical depression status, since it is so large and poorly organized. The last two runs of the NOGAPS model have developed the disturbance into a tropical depression or storm by early next week, with the system moving northwards into Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and eastern Cuba. The other major models do not show the disturbance developing during the coming week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. A surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave may aid development when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Sunday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Residents of Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them today through Sunday.

Five EF-5 tornadoes confirmed in 2011
The National Weather Service in Oklahoma City announced Wednesday that the violent tornado that hit Binger, El Reno, Peidmont, and Guthrie, Oklahoma on May 24, killing nine people, was an EF-5 with winds greater than 210 mph. The rating was given based on measurements made by a University of Oklahoma portable "Doppler on wheels" radar. The long track, large wedge tornado caused extensive damage, with well built houses cleanly swept from their foundation and trees debarked. This tornado brings the total number of EF-5 tornadoes this year to five, tying 2011 with 1953 for 2nd place for greatest number of these top-end tornadoes in one year. Only 1974 (six) had more. The EF-5 tornadoes of 2011:

1) The April 27, 2011 Neshoba/Kemper/Winston/Noxubee Counties, Mississippi tornado (3 killed, 29 mile path length.)

2) The April 27, 2011 Smithville, Mississippi tornado (22 killed, 15 mile path length.)

3) The April 27, 2011 Hackleburg, Alabama tornado (71 killed, 25 mile path length.)

4) The May 22, 2011 Joplin Missouri tornado (138 killed, 14 mile path length.)

5) The May 24, 2011 Binger-El Reno-Peidmont-Guthrie, Oklahoma tornado. (9 killed, 75 mile path length.)


Figure 2. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.

A few other remarkable statistics on the tornado season of 2011, compiled from NOAA's official press release and Wikipedia's excellent tornado pages:

- The April 25 - 28 tornado outbreak, with 330 tornadoes, was the largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record. The previous record was 148 tornadoes, set during the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak.

- For April 27, 186 tornadoes have been confirmed. This is the largest 1-day tornado total on record, beating the 148 recorded in 24 hours on April 3 - 4, 1974.

- The April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak, with 162 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the fourth largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record.

- The May 21 - 26 tornado outbreak, with 158 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the 5th largest 6-day or shorter tornado outbreak on record. A May 2003 6-day outbreak had 289 tornadoes, and a May 2004 6-day outbreak had 229 tornadoes. The year 2011 now has three of the top five tornado outbreaks on record.

- April confirmed tornado total was 683, making it the busiest tornado month on record. The previous record was 542 tornadoes, set in May 2003. The previous April record was 267 tornadoes, which occurred in April 1974. The 30-year average for April tornadoes is 135.

- If the three deaths in Massachusetts from Wednesday's tornadoes are confirmed, this year's tornado death toll will be 522, beating 1953 as the deadliest tornado year since modern tornado records began. That year, 519 people died, and three heavily populated cities received direct hits by violent tornadoes. Waco, Texas (114 killed), Flint, Michigan (115 killed), and Worcester, Massachusetts (90 killed) all were hit by violent F-4 or F-5 tornadoes. A similar bad tornado year occurred in 1936, when violent tornadoes hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.) During that time period, the tornado death rate per million people was 60 - 70 times as great as in the year 2000 (Figure 4), implying that this year's tornadoes would have killed many thousands of people had we not had our modern tornado modern warning system.

- The May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado killed 138 people and injured 1150, making it the deadliest U.S. tornado since 1947, and 8th deadliest in history. The $1 - $3 billion estimate of insured damage makes it the most expensive tornado in history.

- Damage from the April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak was estimated at $3.5 - $6 billion, making it the most expensive tornado outbreak of all-time.

- The tornado that hit Springfield, Massachusetts on June 1 was at least an EF-3 with 136 - 165 mph winds. It was only the 9th EF-3 or stronger tornado to hit Massachusetts since 1950, and the third deadliest, with three deaths.

- The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965 for highest number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4, and EF-5 tornadoes (Figure 3.)


Figure 3. Number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of these most dangerous of tornadoes. Image credit: NOAA/National Climatic Data Center (updated using stats for 2008 - 2011 from Wikipedia.)


Figure 4. Death rate per million people per year in U.S., 1875-2000. Thin line with dots is raw rate, curved thick line is death rate, filtered by 3-point median and 5-point running mean filter, and straight solid lines are least squares fit to filtered death rate for 1875-1925 and 1925-2000. Dashed lines are estimates of 10th and 90th percentile death rates from 1925-2000. The death rate fell from 8 per million to .12 per million between 1940 and 2000. Image credit: A Brief History of Deaths from Tornadoes in the United States, Harold Brooks and Charles Doswell III.

Joplin tornado the 7th U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster of 2011
The Joplin tornado is the 7th U.S. weather disaster of 2011 costing more than a billion dollars. With a major flooding disaster coming on the Missouri River, and hurricane season still to come, 2011 has an excellent chance of beating 2008's record of nine billion-dollar weather disasters. The billion dollar weather disasters of 2011 so far:

1) 2011 Groundhog Day's blizzard ($1- $4 billion)
2) April 3 -5 Southeast U.S. severe weather outbreak ($2 billion)
3) April 8 - 11 severe weather outbreak ($2.25 billion)
4) April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak ($3.5 - $6 billion)
5) Mississippi River flood of 2011 ($9 billion)
6) Texas drought ($1.2 billion)
7) Joplin tornado ($1 - $3 billion)


Figure 5. River flood outlook for the U.S. Image credit: NOAA.

The next U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster: a Missouri River flood?
A great 100-year flood has arrived along the Missouri River and its tributaries from Montana to Nebraska. Record spring rains, combined with snow melt from record or near-record winter and spring snows, brought the Missouri River at Williston, North Dakota to 27.9' yesterday, just an inch short of the highest crest on record (28.0' on 4/01/1912.) Tributaries to the Missouri, such as the Souris River in North Dakota and the North Platte River in Nebraska, are already flooding at all-time record heights. With warm summer temperatures and additional rainfall expected over much of the area during the coming week, snow melt and rain runoff will swell area rivers even further, creating a damaging 100-year flood. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has the details in his latest post, and I will be writing more on this latest epic flood next week.

I'll have a new post on Monday, or earlier if the Caribbean disturbance shows significant development.

Jeff Masters

Joplin Tornado Damage (thebige)
Joplin Tornado Damage
And Bigger.... (weatherfanatic2010)
Here it is turning into a monster.
And Bigger....

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Quoting skook:



or just ignore the user, and eventually, when people stop falling for his "troll posts" he won't come back, because he knows people won't throw a hissy fit over his postings.


I'll be reporting him,i want him to be banned
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Means of Action

Problems in the blog will be handled in the following ways.

Ignore - Having your blog removed from the directory, removing easy access to it. This is more like a warning and typically lasts 7 days, if there are no further problems.
Ban - This is strong action, as it removes your member handle from the blogs completely, blocking access to all entries. The length of a ban is dependent upon the severity of the violation.
IP Ban - People who repeatedly circumvent bans will be the recipients of an IP ban, which blocks access to the entire site.
Troll Wipe - This is the most extreme action an Admin can take, and it is reserved for flagrant, repetitive violations of the Terms of Service. This will remove the user completely, making it impossible for them to access that member handle again
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114649
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Quoting PolishHurrMaster:
Maybe let's report all posts of Goldenpanther,if we'll do that he will be banned faster.


May I refer you to afore-mentioned "-" button, which is instantaneous in effect. I deem instantaneous superior to "faster".

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Quoting GoldenPanther2011:
:0, why aussie, why did you jsut do that to me? =(. i thought that youw ere taking a neutral stance here, between thsi dispute between taz and msyelf. did you really justs ent him the spanish memo that i had wrote him, in english so that he could now send it off to the admin, did you really? OUCH, =(.

Sorry mate but that sort of language doesn't belong here, in ANY language. Play nice or don't play at all.
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This is pathetic. Why do you guys let trolls run this place????

Report and - and move on already. The more you talk, quote, engage, or acknowledge a troll the more off topic the blog gets and the more the troll wants to keep trolling.

Also, I wish this blog had better moderation, some people get banned for poor reasons, others don't get banned for doing worse, and additionally, better moderation would cut down on the drama, trolling, and immaturity which has driven away many of our best posters.


Truly is upsetting.
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Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Agreed, but WU doesn't do IP bans.




they sould it will keep JFV off the blogs
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114649
Quoting GoldenPanther2011:
:0, why aussie, why did you jsut do that to me? =(. i thought that youw ere taking a neutral stance here, between thsi dispute between taz and msyelf. did you really justs ent him the spanish memo that i had wrote him, in english so that he could now send it off to the admin, did you really? OUCH, =(.




i dont read spanish
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114649
1263. skook
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:
Maybe let's report all posts of Goldenpanther,if we'll do that he will be banned faster.



or just ignore the user, and eventually, when people stop falling for his "troll posts" he won't come back, because he knows people won't throw a hissy fit over his postings.

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Quoting AussieStorm:

That was worthy of an IP ban. foul language in any language should not be tolerated.


Agreed, but WU doesn't do IP bans.
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am a good boy



Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114649
1260. xcool
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Maybe let's report all posts of Goldenpanther,if we'll do that he will be banned faster.
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You know, the "-" is much more effective to make the comments "disappear". If you utilize it, you will find reactionists all too easy to predict. No reaction, no reactionist.
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Quoting GoldenPanther2011:


We, to your north and west are as well, JP. and Aussie, i would never behave like this in Bob's site, i respect tathat fine man too mcuh for that.

So why don't you respect Dr Jeff Masters then. We are his guests on his blog. Just like we are guests on Bob's site. Respect should be shown everywhere not in certain places. If you show people respect here, maybe they can begin to respect you back.
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1255. xcool
opps
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Quoting AussieStorm:

you have mail.



thank you i got it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114649
Quoting GoldenPanther2011:


I will, Aussie, =). Thank you, at least someoe is willing to give me a shot.



LOL you ran out of shots
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114649
1252. xcool
Tazmanian why ?
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1250. JLPR2
Quoting GoldenPanther2011:


my apologies, JP, es que el tipo me saca de quizio


Ah, next time open notepad and write it there instead of posting it. xD

But I guess it could have been much worse.
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i dont read spanish you guys LOL
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114649
Quoting Tazmanian:




what did it say so i can forword it too the admin in WU e mail

you have mail.
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1246. xcool
i really hate drama
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this report JFV you guys if you report him more then 5 times his commets will go a way
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114649
Quoting GoldenPanther2011:


Yes sir, from Hurricane Hollow, so, are you gonna stick around?

I'll stick around if you play nice here like you play nice on Hurricane Hollow.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

I no it's him, Pity he doesn't play as nice as he does in the other site I know him from.



ok
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114649
Quoting CatfishJones:


It says it will spin around in the same place for a bit and then zip off NNE at which point it will intensify and subsequently ker-pload. Refer to post 1198. where a gentleman was kind enough to post said model.


Haha, just saw it. Doubt that will happen.
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JFV I beg you please stop we don't need anymore crap if you want go and find a crap blog so you can put your there to and leave us this is the last warning
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Quoting AussieStorm:

That was worthy of an IP ban. foul language in any language should not be tolerated.




what did it say so i can forword it too the admin in WU e mail
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Quoting Tazmanian:
AussieStorm i sent you mail

I no it's him, Pity he doesn't play as nice as he does in the other site I know him from.
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1238. JLPR2
Well I was bored and decided to look up my chances for a hit this year.

This year it's 13 years since a hurricane hit PR.
And 4 years since the last TS, if you count Subtropical ones.

Statistically my area sees a hurricane every 13.90yrs and a TS every 3.66yrs, so I'm pretty much due. :\
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Guys,let's don't make a language chat.This blog is not for this
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Quoting Tazmanian:




not sure what you this said but you been reported for it

That was worthy of an IP ban. foul language in any language should not be tolerated.
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AussieStorm i sent you mail
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1234. JLPR2
Seriously guys, if it's bad don't quote. XD
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Quoting GoldenPanther2011:


Hazlo, singao hijo de puta, retardo mental, por eso es que ya tengo 50 cuenats establecidas y preparadas para cuando me vuelvan a votar de nuevo por tu culpa. Te avs a pasar el dia entero asi, porque HAMAS, HAMAS ME IRE DE ESTE LUGAR, para que lo sepas, ESTUPIDO.

I just translated that, If i was you, I would take it down. That is not needed on this website. Play nice or don't play at all.
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1229. JLPR2
Quoting Tazmanian:




not sure what you this said but you been reported for it


Please taz, delete that quote.

And JFV I actually don't care what you do, but watch the language.
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Quoting caneswatch:


No.

Will someone please tell me what does it say?


It says it will spin around in the same place for a bit and then zip off NNE at which point it will intensify and subsequently ker-pload. Refer to post 1198. where a gentleman was kind enough to post said model.
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Quoting GoldenPanther2011:
Sorry about your ban, Aussie, that's crazy stuff, how dare the admin, lol, =(. At least you're back now. Hopefully that won't leave you with any resentment towards this site now, cause we really like having you here. You're like our meteorologist from Australia, =). Stick around, would ya?

Sorry but who are you. Do I know you from another website that has a chatroom?
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1226. xcool
ElConando yes from new orleans why lol
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
Current surface observations per WunderMap support the position of the low with Invest 94L shown by the most recent ASCAT pass. Expect a relocation of Invest 94L to the west by about 50 miles putting the low to the southwest of Jamaica, not south of Jamaica.

Foreca products show the same:center is SSW of Jamaica
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so .... he gets insulted the retaliates in spanish.....


How ya been JFV?
Member Since: August 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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