Caribbean disturbance slow to develop; 5 EF-5 tornadoes this year confirmed

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:33 PM GMT on June 03, 2011

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The tropical disturbance (Invest 93L) that crossed over Florida on Wednesday, bringing welcome rains of 1 - 3 inches, is now a naked swirl of low clouds over the central Gulf of Mexico. The disturbance is embedded in a large area of dry air associated with an upper level low pressure system, and this dry air is discouraging development. 93L is also moving into a region of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and NHC is giving 93L a 0% chance of developing into a tropical depression before the storm makes landfall in Mexico south of Brownsville on Saturday. There are a few heavy thunderstorms trying to fire up near the center of 93L's fairly well-formed circulation, but I don't think this storm is going to bring more than 1 - 2 inches of rain to the coast on Saturday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance.

Central Caribbean disturbance 94L
Disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity continues in the region between Central America and Jamaica. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and is predicted to continue to fall over the next two days. This should allow the disturbance, dubbed Invest 94L by NHC on Friday afternoon, to increase in organization, though it will take many days for it to approach tropical depression status, since it is so large and poorly organized. The last two runs of the NOGAPS model have developed the disturbance into a tropical depression or storm by early next week, with the system moving northwards into Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and eastern Cuba. The other major models do not show the disturbance developing during the coming week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. A surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave may aid development when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Sunday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Residents of Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them today through Sunday.

Five EF-5 tornadoes confirmed in 2011
The National Weather Service in Oklahoma City announced Wednesday that the violent tornado that hit Binger, El Reno, Peidmont, and Guthrie, Oklahoma on May 24, killing nine people, was an EF-5 with winds greater than 210 mph. The rating was given based on measurements made by a University of Oklahoma portable "Doppler on wheels" radar. The long track, large wedge tornado caused extensive damage, with well built houses cleanly swept from their foundation and trees debarked. This tornado brings the total number of EF-5 tornadoes this year to five, tying 2011 with 1953 for 2nd place for greatest number of these top-end tornadoes in one year. Only 1974 (six) had more. The EF-5 tornadoes of 2011:

1) The April 27, 2011 Neshoba/Kemper/Winston/Noxubee Counties, Mississippi tornado (3 killed, 29 mile path length.)

2) The April 27, 2011 Smithville, Mississippi tornado (22 killed, 15 mile path length.)

3) The April 27, 2011 Hackleburg, Alabama tornado (71 killed, 25 mile path length.)

4) The May 22, 2011 Joplin Missouri tornado (138 killed, 14 mile path length.)

5) The May 24, 2011 Binger-El Reno-Peidmont-Guthrie, Oklahoma tornado. (9 killed, 75 mile path length.)


Figure 2. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.

A few other remarkable statistics on the tornado season of 2011, compiled from NOAA's official press release and Wikipedia's excellent tornado pages:

- The April 25 - 28 tornado outbreak, with 330 tornadoes, was the largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record. The previous record was 148 tornadoes, set during the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak.

- For April 27, 186 tornadoes have been confirmed. This is the largest 1-day tornado total on record, beating the 148 recorded in 24 hours on April 3 - 4, 1974.

- The April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak, with 162 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the fourth largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record.

- The May 21 - 26 tornado outbreak, with 158 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the 5th largest 6-day or shorter tornado outbreak on record. A May 2003 6-day outbreak had 289 tornadoes, and a May 2004 6-day outbreak had 229 tornadoes. The year 2011 now has three of the top five tornado outbreaks on record.

- April confirmed tornado total was 683, making it the busiest tornado month on record. The previous record was 542 tornadoes, set in May 2003. The previous April record was 267 tornadoes, which occurred in April 1974. The 30-year average for April tornadoes is 135.

- If the three deaths in Massachusetts from Wednesday's tornadoes are confirmed, this year's tornado death toll will be 522, beating 1953 as the deadliest tornado year since modern tornado records began. That year, 519 people died, and three heavily populated cities received direct hits by violent tornadoes. Waco, Texas (114 killed), Flint, Michigan (115 killed), and Worcester, Massachusetts (90 killed) all were hit by violent F-4 or F-5 tornadoes. A similar bad tornado year occurred in 1936, when violent tornadoes hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.) During that time period, the tornado death rate per million people was 60 - 70 times as great as in the year 2000 (Figure 4), implying that this year's tornadoes would have killed many thousands of people had we not had our modern tornado modern warning system.

- The May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado killed 138 people and injured 1150, making it the deadliest U.S. tornado since 1947, and 8th deadliest in history. The $1 - $3 billion estimate of insured damage makes it the most expensive tornado in history.

- Damage from the April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak was estimated at $3.5 - $6 billion, making it the most expensive tornado outbreak of all-time.

- The tornado that hit Springfield, Massachusetts on June 1 was at least an EF-3 with 136 - 165 mph winds. It was only the 9th EF-3 or stronger tornado to hit Massachusetts since 1950, and the third deadliest, with three deaths.

- The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965 for highest number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4, and EF-5 tornadoes (Figure 3.)


Figure 3. Number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of these most dangerous of tornadoes. Image credit: NOAA/National Climatic Data Center (updated using stats for 2008 - 2011 from Wikipedia.)


Figure 4. Death rate per million people per year in U.S., 1875-2000. Thin line with dots is raw rate, curved thick line is death rate, filtered by 3-point median and 5-point running mean filter, and straight solid lines are least squares fit to filtered death rate for 1875-1925 and 1925-2000. Dashed lines are estimates of 10th and 90th percentile death rates from 1925-2000. The death rate fell from 8 per million to .12 per million between 1940 and 2000. Image credit: A Brief History of Deaths from Tornadoes in the United States, Harold Brooks and Charles Doswell III.

Joplin tornado the 7th U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster of 2011
The Joplin tornado is the 7th U.S. weather disaster of 2011 costing more than a billion dollars. With a major flooding disaster coming on the Missouri River, and hurricane season still to come, 2011 has an excellent chance of beating 2008's record of nine billion-dollar weather disasters. The billion dollar weather disasters of 2011 so far:

1) 2011 Groundhog Day's blizzard ($1- $4 billion)
2) April 3 -5 Southeast U.S. severe weather outbreak ($2 billion)
3) April 8 - 11 severe weather outbreak ($2.25 billion)
4) April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak ($3.5 - $6 billion)
5) Mississippi River flood of 2011 ($9 billion)
6) Texas drought ($1.2 billion)
7) Joplin tornado ($1 - $3 billion)


Figure 5. River flood outlook for the U.S. Image credit: NOAA.

The next U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster: a Missouri River flood?
A great 100-year flood has arrived along the Missouri River and its tributaries from Montana to Nebraska. Record spring rains, combined with snow melt from record or near-record winter and spring snows, brought the Missouri River at Williston, North Dakota to 27.9' yesterday, just an inch short of the highest crest on record (28.0' on 4/01/1912.) Tributaries to the Missouri, such as the Souris River in North Dakota and the North Platte River in Nebraska, are already flooding at all-time record heights. With warm summer temperatures and additional rainfall expected over much of the area during the coming week, snow melt and rain runoff will swell area rivers even further, creating a damaging 100-year flood. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has the details in his latest post, and I will be writing more on this latest epic flood next week.

I'll have a new post on Monday, or earlier if the Caribbean disturbance shows significant development.

Jeff Masters

Joplin Tornado Damage (thebige)
Joplin Tornado Damage
And Bigger.... (weatherfanatic2010)
Here it is turning into a monster.
And Bigger....

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Quoting TomTaylor:
Taz, I'm considering reporting you.

You really need to learn how to ignore a troll...its not hard...at all.



how can you ignore some one if they are talking be hid your back and makeing new names?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114788
Quoting Tazmanian:



sorry but hes geting me mad and geting me too say thing i sould not be saying lol


Hey Taz, do you know how to put someone on ignore?
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Quoting Vincent4989:
Will you please stop talking about rules and trolls and start talking about what is going on with the weather and 94L?

Do you think 94L will suffer from stratospheric solar discontinuity?
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Quoting Orcasystems:


You.. are an idiot




LOL LOL LOL LOL



am with you %100 on that




that was funny
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114788
Quoting Tazmanian:





thats the best thing i hereed you said all night you are a idiot
Taz, I'm considering reporting you.

You really need to learn how to ignore a troll...its not hard...at all.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
Quoting GoldenPanther2011:


Amen, JP, also, remember that he cannot reason unliek the rest of us, cause he's mentally handicap, therefore, he lacks that type of comprehension, I would know, Im majoring in sociologist in college. I know how to deal with his type of social deviancy. he won't budge. it's a psychological deficiency which he suffers from. He's not rational like you and I.


You.. are an idiot
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Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





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Will you please stop talking about rules and trolls and start talking about what is going on with the weather and 94L?
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Quoting GoldenPanther2011:


wow, just sheer amazement, astoundingly unbelievable, oh well, at least i now know that one of your characteristics as a man, would include unmerciful, under the bus thrower. one comes around, goes around, Aussie, enough. take it from this Cuban, here in South Florida, to you over there, in Australia, nearly 24 hours away from me. I hope this sticks with you FOREVER.

Mate, don't start with me ok. I live in a beautiful country that is known world over as being kind hearted and forgiving. I have never put any of your names on ignore, all 20+ of them. so please just behave, cool your heals. Use your ignore button. Lets keep this blog civil. It's going to be a long season.
Oh, and it's raining here again. just in time for walking to church.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
I am amazed at how easily someone can troll this blog. Can't blame jfv for coming back, you guys are too easy.


That's the weakness of Internet... you can open any account from different places (IPs) with any name, photo, age, sex, country etc.. It is really vulnerable...
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Quoting CatfishJones:
Don'tAnnoyMe, I apologize on behalf of those who do not understand.

If you do not ban him, he does not need a new handle. If you place him on your ignore list, and refrain from banning him of course, you avoid the ban circumvention altogether. If this does not compute then I shall admit that you all, rather the "troll", have defeated yourselves. I will not dignify this juvenile pugnacity with any further comment.


Unfortunately, as long as there are trolls, there will be enablers. Both must be ignored.
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1307. skook
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:
It's ludicrous to think that WU is IP banning people, given the implications. Perhaps they were able to do it in the distant past, when most people had static IPs.

It's also ludicrous to think that WU can stop people from circumventing permabans in any way, because they can't. All it takes is a new handle.

The bottom line is that we have to do the policing, and we need to do it gracefully.



speaks the truth. Just hit the ignore button and move on. You actually don't "need" a moderator, when you have so many tools to use to police the forum yourself.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ROUGHLY A HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF JAMAICA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER
PORTIONS OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...JAMAICA...AND EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5167
Don'tAnnoyMe, I apologize on behalf of those who do not understand.

If you do not ban him, he does not need a new handle. If you place him on your ignore list, and refrain from banning him of course, you avoid the ban circumvention altogether. If this does not compute then I shall admit that you all, rather than the "troll", have defeated yourselves. I will not dignify this juvenile pugnacity with any further comment.
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Thanks, I went back and found the anwser you had posted...





your welcome
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114788
It's ludicrous to think that WU is IP banning people, given the implications. Perhaps they were able to do it in the distant past, when most people had static IPs.

It's also ludicrous to think that WU can stop people from circumventing permabans in any way, because they can't. All it takes is a new handle.

The bottom line is that we have to do the policing, and we need to do it gracefully.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



thank you

Your welcome!
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Quoting Tazmanian:




yes it sould be ues


see this be low


IP Ban - People who repeatedly circumvent bans will be the recipients of an IP ban, which blocks access to the entire site.


and this is what JFV dos


Thanks, I went back and found the anwser you had posted...
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I am amazed at how easily someone can troll this blog. Can't blame jfv for coming back, you guys are too easy.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
where is wounderround Admin when you need him
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114788
1297. JLPR2
Taz, control... :\

Now less words and more images.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8532
Quoting GoldenPanther2011:


wow, just sheer amazement, astoundingly unbelievable, oh well, at least i now know that one of your characteristics as a man, would include unmerciful, under the bus thrower. one comes around, goes around, Aussie, enough. take it from this Cuban, here in South Florida, to you over there, in Australia, nearly 24 hours away from me. I hope this sticks with you FOREVER.



report for insult
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114788
1295. skook
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:
WunderBlogs - BanIP

Common Questions About IP Banning

Why can't you ban a troublemaker by IP?

IP addresses are a limited commodity. Because of this, many Internet Service Providers use a small number of external addresses to point to devices which then map to non-public address for individual computers. Thus, true IP cannot be tracked. Banning this external number could potentially ban an entire corporation, or a whole branch of an ISPs network, which would be intolerably unfair.

Most consumer IP addresses are NOT static. Most individuals have IP addresses that have been temporarily assigned to them by their service provider and that address can be changed, sometimes at will. Banning by that IP will have little or no effect.

What can you do?
Taking care of trolls is the responsibility of WunderBlogAdmin AND the member community of Weather Underground. Here's what you can do:

Flag!
All of our members are pretty adept at flagging junk content, and for that we are most pleased. Troll content on the featured blogs is flagged almost immediately, which kills two birds with one stone. For one, it makes it easier for WunderBlogAdmin to track down each unwanted piece of content and helps alert admin to developing problems. Another separate benefit is that flagging reduces the troll's karma significantly and quickly which flows directly into the next tool.

Filter!
Each blog member can select a filter level. Filtering allows you to automatically collapse comments that are made by members with a low karma. This is done by selecting a level in the box that appears at the top of the comments on any blog. A selection in any blog will apply to every blog.

Forget!
Okay it's really ignore, but one must always give way to alliteration. A link appears below each comment entitled "Ignore User". This link will take you directly to your ignore list, place the name of said troll into the next available text field, and wait for you to simply hit the button. Once you've submitted, and the system has processed your new list, you'll be troll free and living the good life.
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STOP QUOTING HIM FOR GODS SAKE!
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Quoting Vincent4989:

Reported for insult.



thank you
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114788
Quoting sunlinepr:


But, seems something isn't working. If a banned blogger can come in again with a new handle, new name, like seems it is happening, then a more extreme action should be taken. Is the IP blocking really being used?




yes it sould be ues


see this be low


IP Ban - People who repeatedly circumvent bans will be the recipients of an IP ban, which blocks access to the entire site.


and this is what JFV dos
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114788
Quoting GoldenPanther2011:




fine, have it your way, you despicable prick, just remember the following: ''I'll stop creating new handles into this site, the day that you learn how to write a complete sentence''. Just some food for thought, it's WAR, david thomas.

JFV, Play nice or don't play at all. or take this to WUmail and not waste blog space.

Rules of the Road

Please do not carry on personal disputes in the blogs.
Threats, intimidation, especially that which extends into the real world will be dealt with by extreme action.
Foul language is not allowed.
Please avoid topics that would be considered adults only. Many children come to this site looking for information about the weather.
Do not circumvent administrative action by creating new users, etc.
No spam.
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Quoting GoldenPanther2011:




fine, have it your way, you despicable prick, just remember the following: ''I'll stop creating new handles into this site, the day that you learn how to write a complete sentence''. Just some food for thought, it's WAR, david thomas.

Reported for insult.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
Means of Action

...


But, seems something isn't working. If a banned blogger can come in again with a new handle, new name, like seems it is happening, then a more extreme action should be taken. Is the IP blocking really being used?
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Link



oh ok
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114788
Admin Notice: When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.
Rules of the Road — How to ignore a blogger

During active periods of hurricane season, these rules will be strictly enforced. Violations will be met with a minimum 24 hour ban.
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Sun, would you say that leans towards the GFS model?
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Quoting Tazmanian:




you welcome am not sure what but ok

Link
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Stop trollin' and start postin' weather topics!
Btw, 94L will become a TD or TS if it weren't for the significant move to the north.
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WunderBlogs - BanIP

Common Questions About IP Banning

Why can't you ban a troublemaker by IP?

IP addresses are a limited commodity. Because of this, many Internet Service Providers use a small number of external addresses to point to devices which then map to non-public address for individual computers. Thus, true IP cannot be tracked. Banning this external number could potentially ban an entire corporation, or a whole branch of an ISPs network, which would be intolerably unfair.

Most consumer IP addresses are NOT static. Most individuals have IP addresses that have been temporarily assigned to them by their service provider and that address can be changed, sometimes at will. Banning by that IP will have little or no effect.

What can you do?
Taking care of trolls is the responsibility of WunderBlogAdmin AND the member community of Weather Underground. Here's what you can do:

Flag!
All of our members are pretty adept at flagging junk content, and for that we are most pleased. Troll content on the featured blogs is flagged almost immediately, which kills two birds with one stone. For one, it makes it easier for WunderBlogAdmin to track down each unwanted piece of content and helps alert admin to developing problems. Another separate benefit is that flagging reduces the troll's karma significantly and quickly which flows directly into the next tool.

Filter!
Each blog member can select a filter level. Filtering allows you to automatically collapse comments that are made by members with a low karma. This is done by selecting a level in the box that appears at the top of the comments on any blog. A selection in any blog will apply to every blog.

Forget!
Okay it's really ignore, but one must always give way to alliteration. A link appears below each comment entitled "Ignore User". This link will take you directly to your ignore list, place the name of said troll into the next available text field, and wait for you to simply hit the button. Once you've submitted, and the system has processed your new list, you'll be troll free and living the good life.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Taz, you beat me.




you welcome am not sure what but ok
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114788
Quoting AussieStorm:

well they did get removed. yet I guess they saw fit to give me a 24hr ban also. I guess people can swear on here and nothing happens yet i post an auto-play video and i get banned... something wrong with the standards there.
The true season has started and they are going to be clamping down. I think just about all the honest folks here have served some ban time. Its the folks that really cause trouble that don't serve the time, they just roll out a new handle. You probably got it as much for how much "bandwidth" your post sucked up as for content. When things really get rolling the servers can get choked up and then folks get frantic
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Quoting GoldenPanther2011:


can we plz call it a truce, david? can we plz try to be friends for one final time? come on now, have a heart,w e all deserve a second chance



sorry you have bypass and bypass and bypass bans the admin make you dont even read the rules and your braking one one right now by posting here i been keeping track of the names that the admins bans i have 9 of them


you need too stop with this
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114788
Quoting Tazmanian:




they sould it will keep JFV off the blogs


No, it wouldn't. That's one reason they don't do it. People just use public proxy servers to get different IPs. The other reason is because they'd have to ban a whole range of IPs because of users getting IPs via DHCP.

+1 on using the - and ignore functions.
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Taz, you beat me.
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Quoting skook:



or just ignore the user, and eventually, when people stop falling for his "troll posts" he won't come back, because he knows people won't throw a hissy fit over his postings.


I'll be reporting him,i want him to be banned
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.