Caribbean disturbance slow to develop; 5 EF-5 tornadoes this year confirmed

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:33 PM GMT on June 03, 2011

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The tropical disturbance (Invest 93L) that crossed over Florida on Wednesday, bringing welcome rains of 1 - 3 inches, is now a naked swirl of low clouds over the central Gulf of Mexico. The disturbance is embedded in a large area of dry air associated with an upper level low pressure system, and this dry air is discouraging development. 93L is also moving into a region of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and NHC is giving 93L a 0% chance of developing into a tropical depression before the storm makes landfall in Mexico south of Brownsville on Saturday. There are a few heavy thunderstorms trying to fire up near the center of 93L's fairly well-formed circulation, but I don't think this storm is going to bring more than 1 - 2 inches of rain to the coast on Saturday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance.

Central Caribbean disturbance 94L
Disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity continues in the region between Central America and Jamaica. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and is predicted to continue to fall over the next two days. This should allow the disturbance, dubbed Invest 94L by NHC on Friday afternoon, to increase in organization, though it will take many days for it to approach tropical depression status, since it is so large and poorly organized. The last two runs of the NOGAPS model have developed the disturbance into a tropical depression or storm by early next week, with the system moving northwards into Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and eastern Cuba. The other major models do not show the disturbance developing during the coming week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. A surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave may aid development when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Sunday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Residents of Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them today through Sunday.

Five EF-5 tornadoes confirmed in 2011
The National Weather Service in Oklahoma City announced Wednesday that the violent tornado that hit Binger, El Reno, Peidmont, and Guthrie, Oklahoma on May 24, killing nine people, was an EF-5 with winds greater than 210 mph. The rating was given based on measurements made by a University of Oklahoma portable "Doppler on wheels" radar. The long track, large wedge tornado caused extensive damage, with well built houses cleanly swept from their foundation and trees debarked. This tornado brings the total number of EF-5 tornadoes this year to five, tying 2011 with 1953 for 2nd place for greatest number of these top-end tornadoes in one year. Only 1974 (six) had more. The EF-5 tornadoes of 2011:

1) The April 27, 2011 Neshoba/Kemper/Winston/Noxubee Counties, Mississippi tornado (3 killed, 29 mile path length.)

2) The April 27, 2011 Smithville, Mississippi tornado (22 killed, 15 mile path length.)

3) The April 27, 2011 Hackleburg, Alabama tornado (71 killed, 25 mile path length.)

4) The May 22, 2011 Joplin Missouri tornado (138 killed, 14 mile path length.)

5) The May 24, 2011 Binger-El Reno-Peidmont-Guthrie, Oklahoma tornado. (9 killed, 75 mile path length.)


Figure 2. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.

A few other remarkable statistics on the tornado season of 2011, compiled from NOAA's official press release and Wikipedia's excellent tornado pages:

- The April 25 - 28 tornado outbreak, with 330 tornadoes, was the largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record. The previous record was 148 tornadoes, set during the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak.

- For April 27, 186 tornadoes have been confirmed. This is the largest 1-day tornado total on record, beating the 148 recorded in 24 hours on April 3 - 4, 1974.

- The April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak, with 162 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the fourth largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record.

- The May 21 - 26 tornado outbreak, with 158 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the 5th largest 6-day or shorter tornado outbreak on record. A May 2003 6-day outbreak had 289 tornadoes, and a May 2004 6-day outbreak had 229 tornadoes. The year 2011 now has three of the top five tornado outbreaks on record.

- April confirmed tornado total was 683, making it the busiest tornado month on record. The previous record was 542 tornadoes, set in May 2003. The previous April record was 267 tornadoes, which occurred in April 1974. The 30-year average for April tornadoes is 135.

- If the three deaths in Massachusetts from Wednesday's tornadoes are confirmed, this year's tornado death toll will be 522, beating 1953 as the deadliest tornado year since modern tornado records began. That year, 519 people died, and three heavily populated cities received direct hits by violent tornadoes. Waco, Texas (114 killed), Flint, Michigan (115 killed), and Worcester, Massachusetts (90 killed) all were hit by violent F-4 or F-5 tornadoes. A similar bad tornado year occurred in 1936, when violent tornadoes hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.) During that time period, the tornado death rate per million people was 60 - 70 times as great as in the year 2000 (Figure 4), implying that this year's tornadoes would have killed many thousands of people had we not had our modern tornado modern warning system.

- The May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado killed 138 people and injured 1150, making it the deadliest U.S. tornado since 1947, and 8th deadliest in history. The $1 - $3 billion estimate of insured damage makes it the most expensive tornado in history.

- Damage from the April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak was estimated at $3.5 - $6 billion, making it the most expensive tornado outbreak of all-time.

- The tornado that hit Springfield, Massachusetts on June 1 was at least an EF-3 with 136 - 165 mph winds. It was only the 9th EF-3 or stronger tornado to hit Massachusetts since 1950, and the third deadliest, with three deaths.

- The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965 for highest number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4, and EF-5 tornadoes (Figure 3.)


Figure 3. Number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of these most dangerous of tornadoes. Image credit: NOAA/National Climatic Data Center (updated using stats for 2008 - 2011 from Wikipedia.)


Figure 4. Death rate per million people per year in U.S., 1875-2000. Thin line with dots is raw rate, curved thick line is death rate, filtered by 3-point median and 5-point running mean filter, and straight solid lines are least squares fit to filtered death rate for 1875-1925 and 1925-2000. Dashed lines are estimates of 10th and 90th percentile death rates from 1925-2000. The death rate fell from 8 per million to .12 per million between 1940 and 2000. Image credit: A Brief History of Deaths from Tornadoes in the United States, Harold Brooks and Charles Doswell III.

Joplin tornado the 7th U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster of 2011
The Joplin tornado is the 7th U.S. weather disaster of 2011 costing more than a billion dollars. With a major flooding disaster coming on the Missouri River, and hurricane season still to come, 2011 has an excellent chance of beating 2008's record of nine billion-dollar weather disasters. The billion dollar weather disasters of 2011 so far:

1) 2011 Groundhog Day's blizzard ($1- $4 billion)
2) April 3 -5 Southeast U.S. severe weather outbreak ($2 billion)
3) April 8 - 11 severe weather outbreak ($2.25 billion)
4) April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak ($3.5 - $6 billion)
5) Mississippi River flood of 2011 ($9 billion)
6) Texas drought ($1.2 billion)
7) Joplin tornado ($1 - $3 billion)


Figure 5. River flood outlook for the U.S. Image credit: NOAA.

The next U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster: a Missouri River flood?
A great 100-year flood has arrived along the Missouri River and its tributaries from Montana to Nebraska. Record spring rains, combined with snow melt from record or near-record winter and spring snows, brought the Missouri River at Williston, North Dakota to 27.9' yesterday, just an inch short of the highest crest on record (28.0' on 4/01/1912.) Tributaries to the Missouri, such as the Souris River in North Dakota and the North Platte River in Nebraska, are already flooding at all-time record heights. With warm summer temperatures and additional rainfall expected over much of the area during the coming week, snow melt and rain runoff will swell area rivers even further, creating a damaging 100-year flood. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has the details in his latest post, and I will be writing more on this latest epic flood next week.

I'll have a new post on Monday, or earlier if the Caribbean disturbance shows significant development.

Jeff Masters

Joplin Tornado Damage (thebige)
Joplin Tornado Damage
And Bigger.... (weatherfanatic2010)
Here it is turning into a monster.
And Bigger....

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Quoting GoldenPanther2011:


i will. thanks for the final shot, ok, back tot he tropics.

And keep it that way. or else goodbye.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
have a good night/day all, bedtime for me... Think of ways to make the blog more troll proof.... Something like input 2 emails in order to be a member or letting the new member participate for one day to be observed and receive the blog members approval through a poll or voting... or.... any ideas...
With 2 emails needed as reference for a new account, someone with 9 identities would have to open 18 email accounts... eventually will get tired of doing so...

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Quoting Orcasystems:
OK, its 2312 here.. I am off to bed..I am to old for this time of night ;)

only 2312? i've been on here sometimes till 0400. Go get a spoon full of cement and harden up mate!, lol, just joking.
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I have a friend who lives in the Portal/Rodeo area and I've been following the coverage of the Horseshoe 2 fire avidly. Bad year for Arizona this year. :(
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Quoting Tazmanian:



LOL am not sure
sorry, but I don't find it very funny watching the blog string off topic for a good hour and 150 or so posts.

In the future I'd appreciate it if you could learn to ignore him right from the beginning
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
1366. j2008
Quoting SherwoodSpirit:
So what are the chances that 93L is gonna do a complete circle and go back to where it started? Looks like it's heading that way to me. :)

That would be quite interesting to see. Well glad to see everyone got their conflicts worked out. I think im gonna get to bed, its just past 11 here in AZ where a little rain could help with these 7 wildfires. So if you happen to see any spare rain you are very welcome to send it here....
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The BAMS has 93L heading to Nebraska. haha
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Check my blog in a few minutes, just uploading photo's now.


OK, I will wait that long... then I am off to bed
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OK, its 2312 here.. I am off to bed..I am to old for this time of night ;)
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Its going to be worth something down there... 3 wins away from the cup...

Check my blog in a few minutes, just uploading photo's now.
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94L today name storm by next week?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114712
Quoting SherwoodSpirit:
So what are the chances that 93L is gonna do a complete circle and go back to where it started? Looks like it's heading that way to me. :)




its heading for a little trip too MX
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114712
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Now you're talking!



yup
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114712
Quoting AussieStorm:

doing ok mate, acute bronchitis and back pain just wish it was a little bit warmer. Btw, I will post a pic of me and my new hat you sent me soon. Thanks for that.


Its going to be worth something down there... 3 wins away from the cup...
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So what are the chances that 93L is gonna do a complete circle and go back to where it started? Looks like it's heading that way to me. :)
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Quoting TomTaylor:
why couldn't you have done this earlier before turning this into a 100+ post fiasco?



LOL am not sure
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114712
Quoting sunlinepr:
These waves from SA ITCZ will feed 94L

That looks like the beginning of a WPAC system. And similar to Alex from last year.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



may be on sat 94L will go too %40
Now you're talking!
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For those of you asking.. you cannot IP ban someone.

very very few people have a static IP, the only way to ensure an IP ban, is to ban the entire block. So to block one IP, you may have to block 1024 people (IP's). Most IP providers have multiple blocks... so to properly do an IP block... you would have to block the entire IP section allocated to that ISP... literally 1000's.

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Quoting Tazmanian:





its been done
why couldn't you have done this earlier before turning this into a 100+ post fiasco?
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
1351. JRRP
Link

00z HWRF
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These waves from SA ITCZ will feed 94L
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Quoting GoldenPanther2011:


Plz dont, =(.

Well stop with this crap with taz and behave or I WILL join everyone else.
Put Taz on ignore and Taz put GoldenPanther2011 on ignore.
Let's stop taking up space and WUmail me.
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now we are back too are evere day bloging
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114712
Quoting Orcasystems:


Hey Aus, hows it going

doing ok mate, acute bronchitis and back pain just wish it was a little bit warmer. Btw, I will post a pic of me and my new hat you sent me soon. Thanks for that.
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Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Agreed, but WU doesn't do IP bans.
They don't really work. Plenty of dodges and if a troll gets fixated on a site they will be back.

If everyone, lurkers included would hit the ! and then the - the poster would disappear pretty quickly. They may reappear after a while but they can only do it by sitting and giving a + to every post to build back up their positive credit. So then the cycle starts over. Admin can't afford to monitor a blog 24/7 so until someone checks up on things the perp will skate free unless the blog polices itself. There is some cost to - to the one that gives it but you get it back by earning + for your posts and giving + to others. Some of us here can't truly ignore posts (I have a rather short ignore list) but the rest of us can take care of the blog if we decide to. It also pays to only tag the most obnoxious posts with a ! because then admin doesn't have to sort through to figure out the level of offense.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
you hit the - button and the ! button. The more attention you give him the more he comes back.

Have you ever had a younger brother? Brothers act no differently than a troll, they pester and annoy you for your attention. But if you learn to just ignore them, they will stop bugging you.

It's all very simple in reality. You just got to do it





its been done
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114712
Quoting Tazmanian:



how can you ignore some one if they are talking be hid your back and makeing new names?
you hit the - button and the ! button. The more attention you give him the more he comes back.

Have you ever had a younger brother? Brothers act no differently than a troll, they pester and annoy you for your attention. But if you learn to just ignore them, they will stop bugging you.

It's all very simple in reality. You just got to do it
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
1341. JLPR2
Quoting Tazmanian:



may be on sat 94L will go too %40


Yeah, maybe, seems 94L is still having a hard time organizing its convection.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



your right i had it with this



this do me one thing all this put him on ingore or report him for me


done.. now put it on ignore and move on.
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Stratospheric Solar Discontinuity? What is Stratospheric Solar Discontinuity?
Member Since: May 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 246
Quoting GoldenPanther2011:



Thank you and my apologies then, =). And yes, I know you do.

I would like you to just be normal please. If you have info, post it. If you have want to ask any questions ask, but please refrain from personal attacks, or i will join the rest and ignore you both here and on Hurricane Hollow.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Taz.. remember what I said last year.... mellow.. let admin handle him... put it on ignore.



your right i had it with this



this do me one thing all this put him on ingore or report him for me
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114712
Quoting JLPR2:
Knowing when you should answer and when not to is a rare gift in this blog. XD

Well...
Moving on, please!
94L was kept at 30%, really thought it was going to be at 40%.



may be on sat 94L will go too %40
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114712
Quoting Tazmanian:



how can you ignore some one if they are talking be hid your back and makeing new names?


Taz.. remember what I said last year.... mellow.. let admin handle him... put it on ignore.
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Convection here and there....


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So... two invests at the beginning of hurricane season and Taz & JFV are already at it. Ahhhh. Blog, sweet blog. :)
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1328. JLPR2
Knowing when you should answer and when not to is a rare gift in this blog. XD

Well...
Moving on, please!
94L was kept at 30%, really thought it was going to be at 40%.
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Quoting sunlinepr:


That's the weakness of Internet... you can open any account from different places (IPs) with any name, photo, age, sex, country etc.. It is really vulnerable...
yes, that is what moderation is for. If this blog had better moderation, trolling, drama, and other rule breaking would be much, MUCH, less of a problem.

Additionally, if people could learn how to ignore, not talk to, nor quote, a troll, this blog would be much more tolerable.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
Quoting AussieStorm:

Do you think 94L will suffer from stratospheric solar discontinuity?


Hey Aus, hows it going
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Taz, I'm considering reporting you.

You really need to learn how to ignore a troll...its not hard...at all.



how can you ignore some one if they are talking be hid your back and makeing new names?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114712

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.