Caribbean disturbance slow to develop; 5 EF-5 tornadoes this year confirmed

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:33 PM GMT on June 03, 2011

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The tropical disturbance (Invest 93L) that crossed over Florida on Wednesday, bringing welcome rains of 1 - 3 inches, is now a naked swirl of low clouds over the central Gulf of Mexico. The disturbance is embedded in a large area of dry air associated with an upper level low pressure system, and this dry air is discouraging development. 93L is also moving into a region of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and NHC is giving 93L a 0% chance of developing into a tropical depression before the storm makes landfall in Mexico south of Brownsville on Saturday. There are a few heavy thunderstorms trying to fire up near the center of 93L's fairly well-formed circulation, but I don't think this storm is going to bring more than 1 - 2 inches of rain to the coast on Saturday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance.

Central Caribbean disturbance 94L
Disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity continues in the region between Central America and Jamaica. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and is predicted to continue to fall over the next two days. This should allow the disturbance, dubbed Invest 94L by NHC on Friday afternoon, to increase in organization, though it will take many days for it to approach tropical depression status, since it is so large and poorly organized. The last two runs of the NOGAPS model have developed the disturbance into a tropical depression or storm by early next week, with the system moving northwards into Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and eastern Cuba. The other major models do not show the disturbance developing during the coming week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. A surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave may aid development when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Sunday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Residents of Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them today through Sunday.

Five EF-5 tornadoes confirmed in 2011
The National Weather Service in Oklahoma City announced Wednesday that the violent tornado that hit Binger, El Reno, Peidmont, and Guthrie, Oklahoma on May 24, killing nine people, was an EF-5 with winds greater than 210 mph. The rating was given based on measurements made by a University of Oklahoma portable "Doppler on wheels" radar. The long track, large wedge tornado caused extensive damage, with well built houses cleanly swept from their foundation and trees debarked. This tornado brings the total number of EF-5 tornadoes this year to five, tying 2011 with 1953 for 2nd place for greatest number of these top-end tornadoes in one year. Only 1974 (six) had more. The EF-5 tornadoes of 2011:

1) The April 27, 2011 Neshoba/Kemper/Winston/Noxubee Counties, Mississippi tornado (3 killed, 29 mile path length.)

2) The April 27, 2011 Smithville, Mississippi tornado (22 killed, 15 mile path length.)

3) The April 27, 2011 Hackleburg, Alabama tornado (71 killed, 25 mile path length.)

4) The May 22, 2011 Joplin Missouri tornado (138 killed, 14 mile path length.)

5) The May 24, 2011 Binger-El Reno-Peidmont-Guthrie, Oklahoma tornado. (9 killed, 75 mile path length.)


Figure 2. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.

A few other remarkable statistics on the tornado season of 2011, compiled from NOAA's official press release and Wikipedia's excellent tornado pages:

- The April 25 - 28 tornado outbreak, with 330 tornadoes, was the largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record. The previous record was 148 tornadoes, set during the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak.

- For April 27, 186 tornadoes have been confirmed. This is the largest 1-day tornado total on record, beating the 148 recorded in 24 hours on April 3 - 4, 1974.

- The April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak, with 162 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the fourth largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record.

- The May 21 - 26 tornado outbreak, with 158 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the 5th largest 6-day or shorter tornado outbreak on record. A May 2003 6-day outbreak had 289 tornadoes, and a May 2004 6-day outbreak had 229 tornadoes. The year 2011 now has three of the top five tornado outbreaks on record.

- April confirmed tornado total was 683, making it the busiest tornado month on record. The previous record was 542 tornadoes, set in May 2003. The previous April record was 267 tornadoes, which occurred in April 1974. The 30-year average for April tornadoes is 135.

- If the three deaths in Massachusetts from Wednesday's tornadoes are confirmed, this year's tornado death toll will be 522, beating 1953 as the deadliest tornado year since modern tornado records began. That year, 519 people died, and three heavily populated cities received direct hits by violent tornadoes. Waco, Texas (114 killed), Flint, Michigan (115 killed), and Worcester, Massachusetts (90 killed) all were hit by violent F-4 or F-5 tornadoes. A similar bad tornado year occurred in 1936, when violent tornadoes hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.) During that time period, the tornado death rate per million people was 60 - 70 times as great as in the year 2000 (Figure 4), implying that this year's tornadoes would have killed many thousands of people had we not had our modern tornado modern warning system.

- The May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado killed 138 people and injured 1150, making it the deadliest U.S. tornado since 1947, and 8th deadliest in history. The $1 - $3 billion estimate of insured damage makes it the most expensive tornado in history.

- Damage from the April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak was estimated at $3.5 - $6 billion, making it the most expensive tornado outbreak of all-time.

- The tornado that hit Springfield, Massachusetts on June 1 was at least an EF-3 with 136 - 165 mph winds. It was only the 9th EF-3 or stronger tornado to hit Massachusetts since 1950, and the third deadliest, with three deaths.

- The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965 for highest number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4, and EF-5 tornadoes (Figure 3.)


Figure 3. Number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of these most dangerous of tornadoes. Image credit: NOAA/National Climatic Data Center (updated using stats for 2008 - 2011 from Wikipedia.)


Figure 4. Death rate per million people per year in U.S., 1875-2000. Thin line with dots is raw rate, curved thick line is death rate, filtered by 3-point median and 5-point running mean filter, and straight solid lines are least squares fit to filtered death rate for 1875-1925 and 1925-2000. Dashed lines are estimates of 10th and 90th percentile death rates from 1925-2000. The death rate fell from 8 per million to .12 per million between 1940 and 2000. Image credit: A Brief History of Deaths from Tornadoes in the United States, Harold Brooks and Charles Doswell III.

Joplin tornado the 7th U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster of 2011
The Joplin tornado is the 7th U.S. weather disaster of 2011 costing more than a billion dollars. With a major flooding disaster coming on the Missouri River, and hurricane season still to come, 2011 has an excellent chance of beating 2008's record of nine billion-dollar weather disasters. The billion dollar weather disasters of 2011 so far:

1) 2011 Groundhog Day's blizzard ($1- $4 billion)
2) April 3 -5 Southeast U.S. severe weather outbreak ($2 billion)
3) April 8 - 11 severe weather outbreak ($2.25 billion)
4) April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak ($3.5 - $6 billion)
5) Mississippi River flood of 2011 ($9 billion)
6) Texas drought ($1.2 billion)
7) Joplin tornado ($1 - $3 billion)


Figure 5. River flood outlook for the U.S. Image credit: NOAA.

The next U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster: a Missouri River flood?
A great 100-year flood has arrived along the Missouri River and its tributaries from Montana to Nebraska. Record spring rains, combined with snow melt from record or near-record winter and spring snows, brought the Missouri River at Williston, North Dakota to 27.9' yesterday, just an inch short of the highest crest on record (28.0' on 4/01/1912.) Tributaries to the Missouri, such as the Souris River in North Dakota and the North Platte River in Nebraska, are already flooding at all-time record heights. With warm summer temperatures and additional rainfall expected over much of the area during the coming week, snow melt and rain runoff will swell area rivers even further, creating a damaging 100-year flood. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has the details in his latest post, and I will be writing more on this latest epic flood next week.

I'll have a new post on Monday, or earlier if the Caribbean disturbance shows significant development.

Jeff Masters

Joplin Tornado Damage (thebige)
Joplin Tornado Damage
And Bigger.... (weatherfanatic2010)
Here it is turning into a monster.
And Bigger....

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Quoting CybrTeddy:


I was wrong - there is no TCFA for 94L I read the page wrong.

no worries mate! no harm done. I just like to keep the info on here truthful.

News Alert.... Volcano 60km north of Mexico City has blown it's top.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
Blog update!
94L in the Caribbean 6/4/11
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1622. Bitmap7
Member Since: May 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
I have a feeling this system will be a like Alex of last year. Not as in strength or direction, but in development. Alex took a long time as an orange circle before becoming red due to broad curculation. I have a feeling this...94L...will be do-ing the same thing.
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1620. pottery
The set-up with 94L looks pretty dread for Haiti right now.
What they dont need is flooding rains, with nearly a million people still in shelters....
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Quoting AussieStorm:

If you read back, you will find your wrong. CybrTeddy and Hurrykane both stated there was a TCFA. Until there is a image posted with a with a backward C and a big red circle. There is no TCFA. 93L also had a TCFA id.


I was wrong - there is no TCFA for 94L I read the page wrong.
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1618. Grothar
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1617. pottery
Quoting zoomiami:


Congrats for you -- so you can send some our way now?

Morning -- nice to see you today.

Coming right up!
But in the meantime, turn the shower curtain back-to-front.
That's what I did, and it worked fine!
:):))
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1616. Grothar
Quoting stormwatcherCI:


Looks like it is slooowly wrapping moisture in on the western side.


Hey, storm. Could you please let GeoffWPB post these Intellicast images. After all it is the only pleasure the poor guy has left. And besides, he animates them for us.
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1615. Bitmap7

Expansion Phase?

Should help to spread some clouds over the llc
Member Since: May 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
Quoting pottery:
OH!! This is SO SWEET!
For the first time in 23 years, my Cisterns are overflowing in the first week of June!
If this is the result of AGW, bring it ON, man!


Congrats for you -- so you can send some our way now?

Morning -- nice to see you today.
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1613. pottery
OH!! This is SO SWEET!
For the first time in 23 years, my Cisterns are overflowing in the first week of June!
If this is the result of AGW, bring it ON, man!
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Well, at least the models agree on where it's going...
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Hope this clears things up :)

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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


I think they said 'Poss TCFA', rather than an actual TCFA, though I could be wrong.

If you read back, you will find your wrong. CybrTeddy and Hurrykane both stated there was a TCFA. Until there is a image posted with a with a backward C and a big red circle. There is no TCFA. 93L also had a TCFA id.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


I'm not really sure to be honest. Generally you're right, GFS and ECMWF tend to be accurate ones, and neither of those have shown much development at all. But the other one's, particularly the NOGAPS and UKMET, have been consistent in showing some development. I tend to side with the consistent ones, but these have been consistently different. I can't see much reason as to why it wouldn't develop personally, shear is low, plenty of moisture from several tropical waves. My two cents would be on development, but it's hard to write off what several global models are saying.

But actually, The Weather Channel say it isn't going to develop, so it mustn't be.... Lol



Yeah, I'm not going to pretend as though I know what's going on. It is what you said, an amateur can still look at the variables and make educated guesses, along with using clues shown by computer models, shear, SAL, and other maps. From the shear maps I was looking at, it seems as though the storm is in a lucky hole. Shear is strong everywhere else in the caribbean except a pocket of low shear to the south of Jamaica. Judging from that map and the location of the LLC (if it even has one), it is barely on the edge of low / high shear. Including high shear the wave may encounter dry air too. This thing is facing lots of obstacles. A fighter, for sure.
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1608. IKE



Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Link

good morning, 94L looking better this a.m., plus more energy entering from stage right (front).
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


I'm not really sure to be honest. Generally you're right, GFS and ECMWF tend to be accurate ones, and neither of those have shown much development at all. But the other one's, particularly the NOGAPS and UKMET, have been consistent in showing some development. I tend to side with the consistent ones, but these have been consistently different. I can't see much reason as to why it wouldn't develop personally, shear is low, plenty of moisture from several tropical waves. My two cents would be on development, but it's hard to write off what several global models are saying.

But actually, The Weather Channel say it isn't going to develop, so it mustn't be.... Lol


For some reason, whenever the GFS and ECMWF dropped a system they where consistent on last year that system developed regardless of those models as long as the UKMET, CMC and NOGAPS also where onboard. Its almost like the GFS and ECMWF get stage fright once show time comes up. I tend to stick with the models with consistent development even if they're not the GFS and ECMWF.
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Looks like it is slooowly wrapping moisture in on the western side.
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Click caribbean rain rate
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Dvorak, 1.0 from both agencies


AL 94 201106041145 DVTS CI 1590N 7770W 25 SAB 1010 ///// T DT=1.0 BO CBND MET=1.0 PT=1.0 FTBO DT PA=40 NMI
AL 94 201106041145 DVTS CI 1700N 7670W 25 TAFB 1010 ///// T llcc mostly exposed to nw of cnvtv bands and remains
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11346
Quoting AussieStorm:

They had one for 93L also.


I think they said 'Poss TCFA', rather than an actual TCFA, though I could be wrong.
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Quoting 1992Andrew:


Thanks for the clarification. A question: Do you agree with the GFS or the less reliable models ? Always been my impression that these models supporting development are not as reliable as the GFS. Perhaps the GFS has a tendency to be conservative in the beginning?


I'm not really sure to be honest. Generally you're right, GFS and ECMWF tend to be accurate ones, and neither of those have shown much development at all. But the other one's, particularly the NOGAPS and UKMET, have been consistent in showing some development. I tend to side with the consistent ones, but these have been consistently different. I can't see much reason as to why it wouldn't develop personally, shear is low, plenty of moisture from several tropical waves. My two cents would be on development, but it's hard to write off what several global models are saying.

But actually, The Weather Channel say it isn't going to develop, so it mustn't be.... Lol
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Link
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Quoting Neapolitan:
A bit more about the Fukushima situation:
To summarize, then: nearly three months in, and only weeks before TEPCO promised to have things stabilized and under control, the highest radiation levels since the catastrophe started have been detected at the plant. Hmmm. Call me a pessimist, but I'm doubting the mid-summer deadline... :-\
I agree and this is a very sad situation. Generations will suffer the consequences of this.
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:




storm id: al942011
1. tcfa message


storm id: io982011
1. tcfa message


storm id: wp922011
1. tcfa message

They had one for 93L also.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
1596. Bitmap7
Quoting 1992Andrew:


Thanks for the clarification. A question: Do you agree with the GFS or the less reliable models ? Always been my impression that these models supporting development are not as reliable as the GFS. Perhaps the GFS has a tendency to be conservative in the beginning?


No it has a tendency to be conservative at cyclogenisis. It and the ecmwf.
Member Since: May 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 429
Quoting stormpetrol:


oops my bad, you're right, did you get any rain last night?
Lots. Just had a nice rain a few minutes ago again. I feel blessed . Any in town ? They robbed Joses last night around 8:30.
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A bit more about the Fukushima situation:
Tepco said Saturday it has detected radiation of up to 4,000 millisieverts per hour at the building housing the No. 1 reactor at the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear plant.

The radiation reading, which was taken when Tokyo Electric Power Co. sent a robot into the No. 1 reactor building on Friday, is believed to be the largest detected in the air at the plant so far.
To summarize, then: nearly three months in, and only weeks before TEPCO promised to have things stabilized and under control, the highest radiation levels since the catastrophe started have been detected at the plant. Hmmm. Call me a pessimist, but I'm doubting the mid-summer deadline... :-\
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Still a disturbance, stationary last 18 hours


AL 94 2011060218 BEST 0 150N 803W 20 1008 DB
AL 94 2011060300 BEST 0 155N 792W 20 1008 DB
AL 94 2011060306 BEST 0 158N 783W 20 1008 DB
AL 94 2011060312 BEST 0 160N 777W 20 1008 DB
AL 94 2011060318 BEST 0 162N 778W 20 1007 DB
AL 94 2011060400 BEST 0 163N 778W 25 1007 DB
AL 94 2011060406 BEST 0 162N 778W 25 1007 DB
AL 94 2011060412 BEST 0 162N 778W 25 1007 DB
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11346
The T-Wave in the central Atlantic looks more like a rejected piece of 94L's tail.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Can you post what you get please.




storm id: al942011
1. tcfa message


storm id: io982011
1. tcfa message


storm id: wp922011
1. tcfa message
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


It's not a tropical wave. It came up from the ITCZ across northern South America. Got helped out with moisture by a tropical wave though.


Thanks for the clarification. A question: Do you agree with the GFS or the less reliable models ? Always been my impression that these models supporting development are not as reliable as the GFS. Perhaps the GFS has a tendency to be conservative in the beginning?
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:


but NOW IT HAS, SO STOP TRYING TO CONFUSE PEOPLE


I'm not trying to confuse people, I was trying to respond to your inquiry about what I'd said.
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


That page shows a TCFA for storm id: al942011, for me anyway.

There is no message and no image. just an id number, there is also an id number for both the WPAC and Indian ocean systems
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
No SP, it is 10:05 our time last night. :)


oops my bad, you're right, did you get any rain last night?
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


It was set for tomorrow, as in the 5th, the day after today..... yesterday, as in the 3rd, the day before today. So it originally hadn't been set for today.


but NOW IT HAS, SO STOP TRYING TO CONFUSE PEOPLE
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12719
Quoting Hurricanes12:


Converting timezones can be confusing, and I bet it's Sunday or nearing Sunday for him. I understood what he wrote anyways.


It's only 13:40 on Saturday here lol, just using tomorrows and yesterdays for different days gets confusing :P
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:


why can't you just say yes it's going in today not sure if it has been changed and done huh


What he previously wrote lol.
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ok here is the link to the TCFA
but just to warn you when you click it it will return you bact to the same page because there is nothing there yet
Link
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12719
Quoting AussieStorm:

this is what i get.....


That page shows a TCFA for storm id: al942011, for me anyway.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:


why can't you just say yes it's going in today not sure if it has been changed and done huh


It was set for tomorrow, as in the 5th, the day after today..... yesterday, as in the 3rd, the day before today. So it originally hadn't been set for today.
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


This was posted just down the page, but I'll post again.

Link

this is what i get.....

Nothing
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
Quoting 1992Andrew:
. It is, for sure, a strong tropical wave.


It's not a tropical wave. It came up from the ITCZ across northern South America. Got helped out with moisture by a tropical wave though.
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


The first mission had been set for tomorrow yesterday (if that makes sense...). Not sure if that's been changed.


why can't you just say yes it's going in today not sure if it has been changed and done huh
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12719
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I'm probally looking in the wrong place...

No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico

By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (FWC-N CDO) from Fleet Weather Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on Sat, Jun 04, 2011.
As of Sat, 04 Jun 2011 12:15:02 GMT

No you are looking correctly. Not sure where this TCFA is located. Maybe CybrTeddy can post it.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
Quoting Hurricanes12:
94L will be checked out by an aircraft today, correct?



I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)..........ADDED:
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 04/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 04/1630Z
D. 16.0N 78.0W
E. 04/2000Z TO 04/2315Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. RESOURCES PERMITTING


2000Z is 4pmEST take off is @ 12:30pm
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Quoting Hurricanes12:
94L will be checked out by an aircraft today, correct?


000
NOUS42 KNHC 032045 AMD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0445 PM EDT FRI 03 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z JUNE 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-003 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)..........ADDED:
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 04/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 04/1630Z
D. 16.0N 78.0W
E. 04/2000Z TO 04/2315Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. RESOURCES PERMITTING

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK............CHANGED:
BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES AT 05/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: INVEST FOR 03/1800Z CANCELED AT 03/1130Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
SEF
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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