Caribbean disturbance slow to develop; 5 EF-5 tornadoes this year confirmed

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:33 PM GMT on June 03, 2011

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The tropical disturbance (Invest 93L) that crossed over Florida on Wednesday, bringing welcome rains of 1 - 3 inches, is now a naked swirl of low clouds over the central Gulf of Mexico. The disturbance is embedded in a large area of dry air associated with an upper level low pressure system, and this dry air is discouraging development. 93L is also moving into a region of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and NHC is giving 93L a 0% chance of developing into a tropical depression before the storm makes landfall in Mexico south of Brownsville on Saturday. There are a few heavy thunderstorms trying to fire up near the center of 93L's fairly well-formed circulation, but I don't think this storm is going to bring more than 1 - 2 inches of rain to the coast on Saturday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance.

Central Caribbean disturbance 94L
Disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity continues in the region between Central America and Jamaica. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and is predicted to continue to fall over the next two days. This should allow the disturbance, dubbed Invest 94L by NHC on Friday afternoon, to increase in organization, though it will take many days for it to approach tropical depression status, since it is so large and poorly organized. The last two runs of the NOGAPS model have developed the disturbance into a tropical depression or storm by early next week, with the system moving northwards into Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and eastern Cuba. The other major models do not show the disturbance developing during the coming week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. A surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave may aid development when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Sunday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Residents of Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them today through Sunday.

Five EF-5 tornadoes confirmed in 2011
The National Weather Service in Oklahoma City announced Wednesday that the violent tornado that hit Binger, El Reno, Peidmont, and Guthrie, Oklahoma on May 24, killing nine people, was an EF-5 with winds greater than 210 mph. The rating was given based on measurements made by a University of Oklahoma portable "Doppler on wheels" radar. The long track, large wedge tornado caused extensive damage, with well built houses cleanly swept from their foundation and trees debarked. This tornado brings the total number of EF-5 tornadoes this year to five, tying 2011 with 1953 for 2nd place for greatest number of these top-end tornadoes in one year. Only 1974 (six) had more. The EF-5 tornadoes of 2011:

1) The April 27, 2011 Neshoba/Kemper/Winston/Noxubee Counties, Mississippi tornado (3 killed, 29 mile path length.)

2) The April 27, 2011 Smithville, Mississippi tornado (22 killed, 15 mile path length.)

3) The April 27, 2011 Hackleburg, Alabama tornado (71 killed, 25 mile path length.)

4) The May 22, 2011 Joplin Missouri tornado (138 killed, 14 mile path length.)

5) The May 24, 2011 Binger-El Reno-Peidmont-Guthrie, Oklahoma tornado. (9 killed, 75 mile path length.)


Figure 2. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.

A few other remarkable statistics on the tornado season of 2011, compiled from NOAA's official press release and Wikipedia's excellent tornado pages:

- The April 25 - 28 tornado outbreak, with 330 tornadoes, was the largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record. The previous record was 148 tornadoes, set during the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak.

- For April 27, 186 tornadoes have been confirmed. This is the largest 1-day tornado total on record, beating the 148 recorded in 24 hours on April 3 - 4, 1974.

- The April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak, with 162 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the fourth largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record.

- The May 21 - 26 tornado outbreak, with 158 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the 5th largest 6-day or shorter tornado outbreak on record. A May 2003 6-day outbreak had 289 tornadoes, and a May 2004 6-day outbreak had 229 tornadoes. The year 2011 now has three of the top five tornado outbreaks on record.

- April confirmed tornado total was 683, making it the busiest tornado month on record. The previous record was 542 tornadoes, set in May 2003. The previous April record was 267 tornadoes, which occurred in April 1974. The 30-year average for April tornadoes is 135.

- If the three deaths in Massachusetts from Wednesday's tornadoes are confirmed, this year's tornado death toll will be 522, beating 1953 as the deadliest tornado year since modern tornado records began. That year, 519 people died, and three heavily populated cities received direct hits by violent tornadoes. Waco, Texas (114 killed), Flint, Michigan (115 killed), and Worcester, Massachusetts (90 killed) all were hit by violent F-4 or F-5 tornadoes. A similar bad tornado year occurred in 1936, when violent tornadoes hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.) During that time period, the tornado death rate per million people was 60 - 70 times as great as in the year 2000 (Figure 4), implying that this year's tornadoes would have killed many thousands of people had we not had our modern tornado modern warning system.

- The May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado killed 138 people and injured 1150, making it the deadliest U.S. tornado since 1947, and 8th deadliest in history. The $1 - $3 billion estimate of insured damage makes it the most expensive tornado in history.

- Damage from the April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak was estimated at $3.5 - $6 billion, making it the most expensive tornado outbreak of all-time.

- The tornado that hit Springfield, Massachusetts on June 1 was at least an EF-3 with 136 - 165 mph winds. It was only the 9th EF-3 or stronger tornado to hit Massachusetts since 1950, and the third deadliest, with three deaths.

- The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965 for highest number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4, and EF-5 tornadoes (Figure 3.)


Figure 3. Number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of these most dangerous of tornadoes. Image credit: NOAA/National Climatic Data Center (updated using stats for 2008 - 2011 from Wikipedia.)


Figure 4. Death rate per million people per year in U.S., 1875-2000. Thin line with dots is raw rate, curved thick line is death rate, filtered by 3-point median and 5-point running mean filter, and straight solid lines are least squares fit to filtered death rate for 1875-1925 and 1925-2000. Dashed lines are estimates of 10th and 90th percentile death rates from 1925-2000. The death rate fell from 8 per million to .12 per million between 1940 and 2000. Image credit: A Brief History of Deaths from Tornadoes in the United States, Harold Brooks and Charles Doswell III.

Joplin tornado the 7th U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster of 2011
The Joplin tornado is the 7th U.S. weather disaster of 2011 costing more than a billion dollars. With a major flooding disaster coming on the Missouri River, and hurricane season still to come, 2011 has an excellent chance of beating 2008's record of nine billion-dollar weather disasters. The billion dollar weather disasters of 2011 so far:

1) 2011 Groundhog Day's blizzard ($1- $4 billion)
2) April 3 -5 Southeast U.S. severe weather outbreak ($2 billion)
3) April 8 - 11 severe weather outbreak ($2.25 billion)
4) April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak ($3.5 - $6 billion)
5) Mississippi River flood of 2011 ($9 billion)
6) Texas drought ($1.2 billion)
7) Joplin tornado ($1 - $3 billion)


Figure 5. River flood outlook for the U.S. Image credit: NOAA.

The next U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster: a Missouri River flood?
A great 100-year flood has arrived along the Missouri River and its tributaries from Montana to Nebraska. Record spring rains, combined with snow melt from record or near-record winter and spring snows, brought the Missouri River at Williston, North Dakota to 27.9' yesterday, just an inch short of the highest crest on record (28.0' on 4/01/1912.) Tributaries to the Missouri, such as the Souris River in North Dakota and the North Platte River in Nebraska, are already flooding at all-time record heights. With warm summer temperatures and additional rainfall expected over much of the area during the coming week, snow melt and rain runoff will swell area rivers even further, creating a damaging 100-year flood. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has the details in his latest post, and I will be writing more on this latest epic flood next week.

I'll have a new post on Monday, or earlier if the Caribbean disturbance shows significant development.

Jeff Masters

Joplin Tornado Damage (thebige)
Joplin Tornado Damage
And Bigger.... (weatherfanatic2010)
Here it is turning into a monster.
And Bigger....

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Quoting Tazmanian:
its him i can tell the way he talks


Taz, ignore and move on please....
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1723. Grothar
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
just let it go friend let it go

it will pass just like the night turns into day


...as sand through the hourglass; so are the days of our lives!
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hey guys I am back

looks like that new blow up of convection is trying to reach for the LLC

Link
Link
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Quoting Tazmanian:
its him i can tell the way he talks


Taz.. the rest of us are not idiots.. we see it also. You are turning into a laughing stock by always harping on it... and... its getting to the point where people are putting you on ignore.

The next time you talk about it.. your going on ignore over here also.
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Quoting Cazador2011:


Thank you, sir, those are two reliable global models, so, that may pan out. You're not buying the track off towards the Northeast quite yet, then?


I don't think NE has been on the cards since late yesterday, at least not for the next few days. Eventually they all go to the NE in time.
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its him i can tell the way he talks
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Quoting Cazador2011:



Good Saturday morning there, Grothar! I hope all is well with you today, good sir? And yeah, you're right, I heard that he's up in FSU studying meteorology, ^_^. He's extraordinarily bright. Remember how between Levi and himself, they always sued to crash heads and made for some fascinating convos in here?


Tha's funny right there. Normally you get sued after doing that. LOL
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Back in a while
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1714. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Tazmanian:




jfv?
just let it go friend let it go

it will pass just like the night turns into day
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56050
Quoting Cazador2011:


KMan, thoughts on it's futuristic tracks?


Both the ECMWF and GFS take 94L into the NW Caribbean over the next several days. This is a real slow mover. Beyond that you have to wait and see as we then get into the long range steering which is not reliable.
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Quoting Tazmanian:




jfv?


Taz, don't start. Just ignore and move on...
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1708. Grothar
Quoting Cazador2011:
Good morning, all; has anyone heard from Drakoen as of yet?


No, was wondering about him myself. He is usually on by now when there is something that interesting.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Here we go again, hopefully everyone knows the drill by now...LOL.


And it's the first thing I see when I get on here. Geez...
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1706. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:


The new wave will bring some much needed moisture to the system and aid development. I just looked at Windsat and the low is 75% closed already. It remains open on the North side of the circulation but it would not take much for this to close off by tonight's pass.

Thanks.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24880
1705. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56050
Quoting pottery:

Still some relatively dry air to the west and north coming in.
How will the addition of another T-Wave (passing through 60w now) change the dynamic ?


The new wave will bring some much needed moisture to the system and aid development. I just looked at Windsat and the low is 75% closed already. It remains open on the North side of the circulation but it would not take much for this to close off by tonight's pass.
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Here we go again, hopefully everyone knows the drill by now...LOL.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1698. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
486

WHXX01 KWBC 041241

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1241 UTC SAT JUN 4 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942011) 20110604 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110604 1200 110605 0000 110605 1200 110606 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 16.2N 77.8W 16.8N 78.3W 17.2N 79.2W 17.5N 79.8W

BAMD 16.2N 77.8W 16.8N 77.9W 17.2N 78.2W 17.6N 78.7W

BAMM 16.2N 77.8W 16.7N 78.1W 17.0N 78.7W 17.4N 79.3W

LBAR 16.2N 77.8W 16.9N 77.8W 18.1N 77.5W 19.2N 76.5W

SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 33KTS

DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 33KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110606 1200 110607 1200 110608 1200 110609 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 17.7N 80.4W 17.9N 81.4W 18.1N 82.9W 18.1N 83.5W

BAMD 18.2N 79.0W 20.4N 78.1W 23.9N 75.3W 27.9N 72.9W

BAMM 17.7N 79.7W 18.6N 80.0W 20.0N 80.2W 22.4N 79.8W

LBAR 20.6N 74.6W 23.5N 67.7W 31.3N 55.0W .0N .0W

SHIP 37KTS 42KTS 32KTS 20KTS

DSHP 37KTS 42KTS 32KTS 23KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 16.2N LONCUR = 77.8W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT

LATM12 = 16.3N LONM12 = 77.8W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 0KT

LATM24 = 16.0N LONM24 = 77.7W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 120NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56050
Quoting iamajeepmom:

I think alot of us in SFL are secretly wishcasting this thing ... we so need the rain, last nights showers on the breeze didn't do much at all...


You got SHOWERS!

I am jealous. Are you a coastie or inlander?
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1695. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:


Thanks. 94L is still lopsided with very little convection on the West side of the low and is still presenting as a sheared system. There is still some embedded mid level shear that may account for this but in time this should diminish and allow for additional development to take place. Here is the mid level map.


Still some relatively dry air to the west and north coming in.
How will the addition of another T-Wave (passing through 60w now) change the dynamic ?
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24880
There is some dry air entrained in the circulation on the West but there is a swath of deeper moisture wrapping in from the NW which should help mix it out over the next 12 hours or so.

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1692. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting afj3:
Anyone know what the GFDL is up to? I realize it tends to miss on intensity but on forecast track it tends to be better. I can't really see what it wants to do with 94L....


322

WHXX04 KWBC 040541

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L



INITIAL TIME 0Z JUN 4



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 16.3 77.9 360./ .0

6 16.6 77.9 9./ 3.3

12 16.7 78.0 301./ 1.7

18 17.0 78.6 294./ 6.0

24 17.1 79.3 281./ 6.3



STORM DISSIPATED AT 24 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56050
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Please let it be. I am officially a wishcaster for 94L. Good chance for this to be rather weak with respect to the winds so bring it on.

I think alot of us in SFL are secretly wishcasting this thing ... we so need the rain, last nights showers on the breeze didn't do much at all...
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Quoting afj3:
Anyone know what the GFDL is up to? I realize it tends to miss on intensity but on forecast track it tends to be better. I can't really see what it wants to do with 94L....


There are two camps with the track and that is one of them. Climatology supports the NW track.
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IF 94 develops solo and soon it will most likely head along what is now it's shear trail( for lack of a better term)
NE over the Greater Antilles, LBAR model path, and maybe even further south over PR and it may not survive the trip.. but we don't need the rain so if it goes your way you are welcome to it!
Gotta get to work!

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Quoting Orcasystems:


)

You've got mail.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
Recent WINDSAT


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Now that upper-level winds have begun to become more favorable, it appears that the main detriment on the cyclogenesis of 94L is dry air to the west. Nevertheless, convective activity has begun to fire over the eastern quadrant of the broad low pressure area over the past few hours...rather similar to yesterday's structure.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1685. afj3
Anyone know what the GFDL is up to? I realize it tends to miss on intensity but on forecast track it tends to be better. I can't really see what it wants to do with 94L....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1684. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
XX/INV/94L
MARK
16.36w/78.88n

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56050
Quoting Orcasystems:


I figure if she would be happy with a TS/TD, she should be ecstatic if we send her something with a number :)

as long as you don't send her an STD. lol
Will send you some WUmail soon my friend.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
Quoting pottery:

Hmmm!
A man that is easily Persuaded by Pretty Girls often causes general mayhem....

(this is probably an ancient Chinese saying...)


I figure if she would be happy with a TS/TD, she should be ecstatic if we send her something with a number :)
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I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)..........ADDED:
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 04/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 04/1630Z
D. 16.0N 78.0W
E. 04/2000Z TO 04/2315Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. RESOURCES PERMITTING

Recon is go unless the above bold gets in the way.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
However, it may be prudent to gather some real atmospheric data for the models. 50/50
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Quoting pottery:
Morning, Kman.
Kudos. You saw it coming...


Thanks. 94L is still lopsided with very little convection on the West side of the low and is still presenting as a sheared system. There is still some embedded mid level shear that may account for this but in time this should diminish and allow for additional development to take place. Here is the mid level map.

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1678. IKE
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Not sure if they will, it's rather easy to see where then center is and it's current organizational state. The convective mass is a lot closer but, still displaced a good distance. I wouldn't go personally, save the funds.
I agree...I wouldn't go either.


I checked twitter...Bastardi...to see if he had anything to say about it. Nothing...but he said....


"""Joe Bastardi

Sometimes I think I am the dumbest person I know, and the worst athlete I know. Amazing how many dumb things I did in one day

10 hours ago

via web""".....

Guess he had a rough day...lol.....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
>The models have no idea they range from 270 to 090....anyone got any insight? looks like the GFS is a bit confused but I am guessing that is because it isnt a depression yet. Pottery I dont know where you live in cayman but you must be one of the few getting any consistent rain! We got a bit last night but based on the line that went through I was expecting way more.
my post 1635.
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Unexpected shower.
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Lovin the BAMM bringing it up the east coast. God do we need the rain.
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1674. pottery
Quoting 19N81W:
The models have no idea they range from 270 to 090....anyone got any insight? looks like the GFS is a bit confused but I am guessing that is because it isnt a depression yet. Pottery I dont know where you live in cayman but you must be one of the few getting any consistent rain! We got a bit last night but based on the line that went through I was expecting way more.

I'm in Trinidad, LOL!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24880

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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