Caribbean disturbance slow to develop; 5 EF-5 tornadoes this year confirmed

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:33 PM GMT on June 03, 2011

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The tropical disturbance (Invest 93L) that crossed over Florida on Wednesday, bringing welcome rains of 1 - 3 inches, is now a naked swirl of low clouds over the central Gulf of Mexico. The disturbance is embedded in a large area of dry air associated with an upper level low pressure system, and this dry air is discouraging development. 93L is also moving into a region of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and NHC is giving 93L a 0% chance of developing into a tropical depression before the storm makes landfall in Mexico south of Brownsville on Saturday. There are a few heavy thunderstorms trying to fire up near the center of 93L's fairly well-formed circulation, but I don't think this storm is going to bring more than 1 - 2 inches of rain to the coast on Saturday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance.

Central Caribbean disturbance 94L
Disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity continues in the region between Central America and Jamaica. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and is predicted to continue to fall over the next two days. This should allow the disturbance, dubbed Invest 94L by NHC on Friday afternoon, to increase in organization, though it will take many days for it to approach tropical depression status, since it is so large and poorly organized. The last two runs of the NOGAPS model have developed the disturbance into a tropical depression or storm by early next week, with the system moving northwards into Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and eastern Cuba. The other major models do not show the disturbance developing during the coming week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. A surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave may aid development when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Sunday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Residents of Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them today through Sunday.

Five EF-5 tornadoes confirmed in 2011
The National Weather Service in Oklahoma City announced Wednesday that the violent tornado that hit Binger, El Reno, Peidmont, and Guthrie, Oklahoma on May 24, killing nine people, was an EF-5 with winds greater than 210 mph. The rating was given based on measurements made by a University of Oklahoma portable "Doppler on wheels" radar. The long track, large wedge tornado caused extensive damage, with well built houses cleanly swept from their foundation and trees debarked. This tornado brings the total number of EF-5 tornadoes this year to five, tying 2011 with 1953 for 2nd place for greatest number of these top-end tornadoes in one year. Only 1974 (six) had more. The EF-5 tornadoes of 2011:

1) The April 27, 2011 Neshoba/Kemper/Winston/Noxubee Counties, Mississippi tornado (3 killed, 29 mile path length.)

2) The April 27, 2011 Smithville, Mississippi tornado (22 killed, 15 mile path length.)

3) The April 27, 2011 Hackleburg, Alabama tornado (71 killed, 25 mile path length.)

4) The May 22, 2011 Joplin Missouri tornado (138 killed, 14 mile path length.)

5) The May 24, 2011 Binger-El Reno-Peidmont-Guthrie, Oklahoma tornado. (9 killed, 75 mile path length.)


Figure 2. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.

A few other remarkable statistics on the tornado season of 2011, compiled from NOAA's official press release and Wikipedia's excellent tornado pages:

- The April 25 - 28 tornado outbreak, with 330 tornadoes, was the largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record. The previous record was 148 tornadoes, set during the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak.

- For April 27, 186 tornadoes have been confirmed. This is the largest 1-day tornado total on record, beating the 148 recorded in 24 hours on April 3 - 4, 1974.

- The April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak, with 162 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the fourth largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record.

- The May 21 - 26 tornado outbreak, with 158 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the 5th largest 6-day or shorter tornado outbreak on record. A May 2003 6-day outbreak had 289 tornadoes, and a May 2004 6-day outbreak had 229 tornadoes. The year 2011 now has three of the top five tornado outbreaks on record.

- April confirmed tornado total was 683, making it the busiest tornado month on record. The previous record was 542 tornadoes, set in May 2003. The previous April record was 267 tornadoes, which occurred in April 1974. The 30-year average for April tornadoes is 135.

- If the three deaths in Massachusetts from Wednesday's tornadoes are confirmed, this year's tornado death toll will be 522, beating 1953 as the deadliest tornado year since modern tornado records began. That year, 519 people died, and three heavily populated cities received direct hits by violent tornadoes. Waco, Texas (114 killed), Flint, Michigan (115 killed), and Worcester, Massachusetts (90 killed) all were hit by violent F-4 or F-5 tornadoes. A similar bad tornado year occurred in 1936, when violent tornadoes hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.) During that time period, the tornado death rate per million people was 60 - 70 times as great as in the year 2000 (Figure 4), implying that this year's tornadoes would have killed many thousands of people had we not had our modern tornado modern warning system.

- The May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado killed 138 people and injured 1150, making it the deadliest U.S. tornado since 1947, and 8th deadliest in history. The $1 - $3 billion estimate of insured damage makes it the most expensive tornado in history.

- Damage from the April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak was estimated at $3.5 - $6 billion, making it the most expensive tornado outbreak of all-time.

- The tornado that hit Springfield, Massachusetts on June 1 was at least an EF-3 with 136 - 165 mph winds. It was only the 9th EF-3 or stronger tornado to hit Massachusetts since 1950, and the third deadliest, with three deaths.

- The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965 for highest number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4, and EF-5 tornadoes (Figure 3.)


Figure 3. Number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of these most dangerous of tornadoes. Image credit: NOAA/National Climatic Data Center (updated using stats for 2008 - 2011 from Wikipedia.)


Figure 4. Death rate per million people per year in U.S., 1875-2000. Thin line with dots is raw rate, curved thick line is death rate, filtered by 3-point median and 5-point running mean filter, and straight solid lines are least squares fit to filtered death rate for 1875-1925 and 1925-2000. Dashed lines are estimates of 10th and 90th percentile death rates from 1925-2000. The death rate fell from 8 per million to .12 per million between 1940 and 2000. Image credit: A Brief History of Deaths from Tornadoes in the United States, Harold Brooks and Charles Doswell III.

Joplin tornado the 7th U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster of 2011
The Joplin tornado is the 7th U.S. weather disaster of 2011 costing more than a billion dollars. With a major flooding disaster coming on the Missouri River, and hurricane season still to come, 2011 has an excellent chance of beating 2008's record of nine billion-dollar weather disasters. The billion dollar weather disasters of 2011 so far:

1) 2011 Groundhog Day's blizzard ($1- $4 billion)
2) April 3 -5 Southeast U.S. severe weather outbreak ($2 billion)
3) April 8 - 11 severe weather outbreak ($2.25 billion)
4) April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak ($3.5 - $6 billion)
5) Mississippi River flood of 2011 ($9 billion)
6) Texas drought ($1.2 billion)
7) Joplin tornado ($1 - $3 billion)


Figure 5. River flood outlook for the U.S. Image credit: NOAA.

The next U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster: a Missouri River flood?
A great 100-year flood has arrived along the Missouri River and its tributaries from Montana to Nebraska. Record spring rains, combined with snow melt from record or near-record winter and spring snows, brought the Missouri River at Williston, North Dakota to 27.9' yesterday, just an inch short of the highest crest on record (28.0' on 4/01/1912.) Tributaries to the Missouri, such as the Souris River in North Dakota and the North Platte River in Nebraska, are already flooding at all-time record heights. With warm summer temperatures and additional rainfall expected over much of the area during the coming week, snow melt and rain runoff will swell area rivers even further, creating a damaging 100-year flood. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has the details in his latest post, and I will be writing more on this latest epic flood next week.

I'll have a new post on Monday, or earlier if the Caribbean disturbance shows significant development.

Jeff Masters

Joplin Tornado Damage (thebige)
Joplin Tornado Damage
And Bigger.... (weatherfanatic2010)
Here it is turning into a monster.
And Bigger....

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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Scrubbed. Oh well.

Nothing too impressive anyway.




it looks way better than it did last night
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Scrubbed. Oh well.

Nothing too impressive anyway.


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waiting for the season is a bust idiots to start comment now

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0-0-0
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3570. pottery
Cancelled.
Well, why not?
Looking at the thing, there is no apparent advantage to flying into it.
Jamaica must be producing some good surface obs, and aircraft in and out of Kingston too.
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Low is back.
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Well, since Recon has been canceled, i'm off to bed.
Good Night all.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
3. REMARK: LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION FOR 05/1800Z AND FIX
MISSION FOR 06/0600Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 05/1100Z.


Hmm, no recon til tomorrow afternoon at earliest then.
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Dam its the mission has be scraped
sorry guys but anyhow I think they should have
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
3. REMARK: LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION FOR 05/1800Z AND FIX
MISSION FOR 06/0600Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 05/1100Z.
They are probably waiting to be sure the present trend continues.
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yes like i said cancelled the flight...im not surprised at all..
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Where would it go?? If 94L forms it's got nowhere to run for at least a few days except to drift around.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ carib/gfs/06/fp0_144.shtml
A surface ridge forms over the GOM-Bermuda over the next 5 days although it has a small weakness over FL and the upper air shows a mid level ridge all along the north edge of the Caribbean until next week and shear to the west...
This is why the models have it looping around etc..boxed in to the W and NW right now and if it moves much out of it's nest in the SW caribe it going to get sheared.
144 hours it gets an opening to the NE.
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Here's a before and after for ya'll, between last night and this morning:






Please, don't use imageshack. It only has an image of a frog in an ice cube instead of the before and after.
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Its cancelled
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3. REMARK: LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION FOR 05/1800Z AND FIX
MISSION FOR 06/0600Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 05/1100Z.
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Do Navy base runways have webcams?

Such a thing could possibly pose national security issues. ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13803
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SUN 05 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z JUNE 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-005

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 06/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 06/1430Z
D. 17.0N 79.5W
E. 06/1745Z TO 06/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 07/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 07/0215Z
D. 17.5N 80.0W
E. 07/0500Z TO 07/0900Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES WHILE
SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
3. REMARK: LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION FOR 05/1800Z AND FIX
MISSION FOR 06/0600Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 05/1100Z.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11557
i agree there was nothing to go down there f=or at least not a closed circulation...its going to take some time before it gets together
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:


I'm sorry, but this absolutely cannot be compared to Wilma in terms of atmospheric conditions. Completely different set-up, without the explosive potential Wilma had.


Once in a lifetime upper level set-up.
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yea I am starting to think it was cancelled

and when their new plan of the day comes out shortly, it will indicate that they did

the only other thing that makes sense is that they are either having issues with the decoder or relaying information or that they just decided not to turn it on yet. We have seen that before too
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I wasn't comparing the systems really - just saying how systems can look to be nothing then they can blow up, AND how some downcast systems that become Wilma. My comment was toward the general comment made earlier that this season is a bust :)
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thanks
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I am surprised that the 8am TWO did not have an Air Force Reconaissance Aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance later today, usually the NHC mentions that if they are sending recon. It was not there this morning.
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Here's a before and after for ya'll, between last night and this morning:





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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


That is from yesterday. Look at the date at the top,it says 4.


saw that after i posted sorry
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rainyeyes let me just say we are in early june not in the peak of the hurricane season like wilma was...no comparison here what so ever...
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Quoting RainyEyes:
IMHO, we can't tell what a storm is going to do. Let's reflect on Wilma. She was basically in the same position as invest 94L and sat there forever as a disturbance. Then poof, she blew up...and the rest is history.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/WILMA_graphi cs.shtml

I was a wunderground stalker back then, reading not posting, but everyone downcasted the system then.

Now, I don't believe in wishcasting either...but for people to talk about how this season is a bust etc. is just crazy. We may only get ONE storm, and that storm may be in September for all we know, but just ONE storm could be Katrina potential. Just saying :)

BTW - good morning everyone. I only stalk during hurricane season and it's nice to be back!


I'm sorry, but this absolutely cannot be compared to Wilma in terms of atmospheric conditions. Completely different set-up, without the explosive potential Wilma had.
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IMHO, we can't tell what a storm is going to do. Let's reflect on Wilma. She was basically in the same position as invest 94L and sat there forever as a disturbance. Then poof, she blew up...and the rest is history.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/WILMA_graphi cs.shtml

I was a wunderground stalker back then, reading not posting, but everyone downcasted the system then.

Now, I don't believe in wishcasting either...but for people to talk about how this season is a bust etc. is just crazy. We may only get ONE storm, and that storm may be in September for all we know, but just ONE storm could be Katrina potential. Just saying :)

BTW - good morning everyone. I only stalk during hurricane season and it's nice to be back!
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3546. pottery
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


That is from yesteday. Look at the date at the top,it says 4.

OH!!
No wonder....
DUHH ! to me.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


is that HH?


Decode of ATCF file
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Quoting Chicklit:


agree sailing. especially when you consider the shear map.

Ditto..it is stacking and that westerly shear is about gone
And the latest RGB is showing a nice upper level outflow into the NW quadrant developing along with a more solid inflow of SA hot moist air..
looking better and better
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3543. pottery
Post 3536.
Now, THAT is an interesting graphic.
Who would have thought the heaviest stuff would be that far east? Not me!
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


is that HH?

Nope, that's info on 94L.
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Quoting blsealevel:
Link


That is from yesterday. Look at the date at the top,it says 4.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Date:Jun. 5, 2011 12:00 Z (Sunday)
Coordinates:16.2N 79.3W
Pressure (MSLP):1007 mb (29.74 inHg | 1007 hPa)
Wind speed (1 min. avg.):25 knots (29 mph | 13 m/s | 46 km/h)
Location:207 statue miles (333 km) to the SW (233°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
Isobar details: The last closed isobar has a pressure of 1010 mb. (29.83 inHg | 1010 hPa) The radius of the last closed isobar is 250 nautical miles (288 miles | 463 kilometers).
Radius of Max Winds:175 nautical miles (201 miles | 324 kilometers)
System Depth:Medium


is that HH?
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6705
Quoting sailingallover:

Low Level Center is at 16.5N 78.5W just to the SE of the Convection..

Date:Jun. 5, 2011 12:00 Z (Sunday)
Coordinates:16.2N 79.3W
Pressure (MSLP):1007 mb (29.74 inHg | 1007 hPa)
Wind speed (1 min. avg.):25 knots (29 mph | 13 m/s | 46 km/h)
Location:207 statue miles (333 km) to the SW (233°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
Isobar details: The last closed isobar has a pressure of 1010 mb. (29.83 inHg | 1010 hPa) The radius of the last closed isobar is 250 nautical miles (288 miles | 463 kilometers).
Radius of Max Winds:175 nautical miles (201 miles | 324 kilometers)
System Depth:Medium
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Link
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
3535. pottery
Quoting Grothar:


Life doesn't work that way, does it?

Life, the Universe and Everything.
It's all a Cosmic Conspiracy directed at me personally.
I'm dealing with it.
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Quoting ackee:
where do u think recon will find 94L centre ?



A SW
B NW
C west
D EAST


C, not far from convection.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Supposedly took off 10 minutes ago.

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 05/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 05/1430Z
D. 17.0N 78.0W
E. 05/1745Z TO 05/2200Z.........DATE CORRECTED.
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


interesting, lets see what happens in the next 15 mins
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6705
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Supposedly took off 10 minutes ago.

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 05/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 05/1430Z
D. 17.0N 78.0W
E. 05/1745Z TO 05/2200Z.........DATE CORRECTED.
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


ok that means we will be getting our first obs in about 10-20 minutes
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3531. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
902

URNT10 KNHC 041613

97779 15594 70302 89000 08700 04011 23664 /9880

49905

RMK AF308 WXWXA 110604141921308 OB 05
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Supposedly took off 10 minutes ago.

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 05/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 05/1430Z
D. 17.0N 78.0W
E. 05/1745Z TO 05/2200Z.........DATE CORRECTED.
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


Do Navy base runways have webcams?
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Quoting ackee:
where do u think recon will find 94L centre ?



A SW
B NW
C west
D EAST

Low Level Center is at 16.5N 78.5W just to the SE of the Convection..
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OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE SW AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN SEA

Excerpt:

SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
1130 AM EDT SUN JUN 05 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A NEARLY STATIONARY 1007 MB LOW IS NEAR 16N79W
REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS SW ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THIS LOW TO GRADUALLY
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST
ENTERING THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THIS WAVE WILL SHIFT NW AND
GET ABSORBED INTO BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS IN THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
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Sorry about the double post. In the meantime let's look at this shrimp-look-a-like invest.

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Quoting pottery:

I hope that is not what's happening.
Tur-balance can really make your head spin....


yes it can I am even feeling it now I will be back in a minute I am going to eat my breakfast
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
They planning to take off at 11?
Supposedly took off 10 minutes ago.

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 05/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 05/1430Z
D. 17.0N 78.0W
E. 05/1745Z TO 05/2200Z.........DATE CORRECTED.
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
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StormPulse says the pressure is at 1007, but I'm not sure how reliable that is....

Ready for another drama filled, ignore-button pushing, troll cleansing season :-)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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