Caribbean disturbance slow to develop; 5 EF-5 tornadoes this year confirmed

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:33 PM GMT on June 03, 2011

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The tropical disturbance (Invest 93L) that crossed over Florida on Wednesday, bringing welcome rains of 1 - 3 inches, is now a naked swirl of low clouds over the central Gulf of Mexico. The disturbance is embedded in a large area of dry air associated with an upper level low pressure system, and this dry air is discouraging development. 93L is also moving into a region of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and NHC is giving 93L a 0% chance of developing into a tropical depression before the storm makes landfall in Mexico south of Brownsville on Saturday. There are a few heavy thunderstorms trying to fire up near the center of 93L's fairly well-formed circulation, but I don't think this storm is going to bring more than 1 - 2 inches of rain to the coast on Saturday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance.

Central Caribbean disturbance 94L
Disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity continues in the region between Central America and Jamaica. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and is predicted to continue to fall over the next two days. This should allow the disturbance, dubbed Invest 94L by NHC on Friday afternoon, to increase in organization, though it will take many days for it to approach tropical depression status, since it is so large and poorly organized. The last two runs of the NOGAPS model have developed the disturbance into a tropical depression or storm by early next week, with the system moving northwards into Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and eastern Cuba. The other major models do not show the disturbance developing during the coming week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. A surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave may aid development when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Sunday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Residents of Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them today through Sunday.

Five EF-5 tornadoes confirmed in 2011
The National Weather Service in Oklahoma City announced Wednesday that the violent tornado that hit Binger, El Reno, Peidmont, and Guthrie, Oklahoma on May 24, killing nine people, was an EF-5 with winds greater than 210 mph. The rating was given based on measurements made by a University of Oklahoma portable "Doppler on wheels" radar. The long track, large wedge tornado caused extensive damage, with well built houses cleanly swept from their foundation and trees debarked. This tornado brings the total number of EF-5 tornadoes this year to five, tying 2011 with 1953 for 2nd place for greatest number of these top-end tornadoes in one year. Only 1974 (six) had more. The EF-5 tornadoes of 2011:

1) The April 27, 2011 Neshoba/Kemper/Winston/Noxubee Counties, Mississippi tornado (3 killed, 29 mile path length.)

2) The April 27, 2011 Smithville, Mississippi tornado (22 killed, 15 mile path length.)

3) The April 27, 2011 Hackleburg, Alabama tornado (71 killed, 25 mile path length.)

4) The May 22, 2011 Joplin Missouri tornado (138 killed, 14 mile path length.)

5) The May 24, 2011 Binger-El Reno-Peidmont-Guthrie, Oklahoma tornado. (9 killed, 75 mile path length.)


Figure 2. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.

A few other remarkable statistics on the tornado season of 2011, compiled from NOAA's official press release and Wikipedia's excellent tornado pages:

- The April 25 - 28 tornado outbreak, with 330 tornadoes, was the largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record. The previous record was 148 tornadoes, set during the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak.

- For April 27, 186 tornadoes have been confirmed. This is the largest 1-day tornado total on record, beating the 148 recorded in 24 hours on April 3 - 4, 1974.

- The April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak, with 162 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the fourth largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record.

- The May 21 - 26 tornado outbreak, with 158 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the 5th largest 6-day or shorter tornado outbreak on record. A May 2003 6-day outbreak had 289 tornadoes, and a May 2004 6-day outbreak had 229 tornadoes. The year 2011 now has three of the top five tornado outbreaks on record.

- April confirmed tornado total was 683, making it the busiest tornado month on record. The previous record was 542 tornadoes, set in May 2003. The previous April record was 267 tornadoes, which occurred in April 1974. The 30-year average for April tornadoes is 135.

- If the three deaths in Massachusetts from Wednesday's tornadoes are confirmed, this year's tornado death toll will be 522, beating 1953 as the deadliest tornado year since modern tornado records began. That year, 519 people died, and three heavily populated cities received direct hits by violent tornadoes. Waco, Texas (114 killed), Flint, Michigan (115 killed), and Worcester, Massachusetts (90 killed) all were hit by violent F-4 or F-5 tornadoes. A similar bad tornado year occurred in 1936, when violent tornadoes hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.) During that time period, the tornado death rate per million people was 60 - 70 times as great as in the year 2000 (Figure 4), implying that this year's tornadoes would have killed many thousands of people had we not had our modern tornado modern warning system.

- The May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado killed 138 people and injured 1150, making it the deadliest U.S. tornado since 1947, and 8th deadliest in history. The $1 - $3 billion estimate of insured damage makes it the most expensive tornado in history.

- Damage from the April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak was estimated at $3.5 - $6 billion, making it the most expensive tornado outbreak of all-time.

- The tornado that hit Springfield, Massachusetts on June 1 was at least an EF-3 with 136 - 165 mph winds. It was only the 9th EF-3 or stronger tornado to hit Massachusetts since 1950, and the third deadliest, with three deaths.

- The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965 for highest number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4, and EF-5 tornadoes (Figure 3.)


Figure 3. Number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of these most dangerous of tornadoes. Image credit: NOAA/National Climatic Data Center (updated using stats for 2008 - 2011 from Wikipedia.)


Figure 4. Death rate per million people per year in U.S., 1875-2000. Thin line with dots is raw rate, curved thick line is death rate, filtered by 3-point median and 5-point running mean filter, and straight solid lines are least squares fit to filtered death rate for 1875-1925 and 1925-2000. Dashed lines are estimates of 10th and 90th percentile death rates from 1925-2000. The death rate fell from 8 per million to .12 per million between 1940 and 2000. Image credit: A Brief History of Deaths from Tornadoes in the United States, Harold Brooks and Charles Doswell III.

Joplin tornado the 7th U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster of 2011
The Joplin tornado is the 7th U.S. weather disaster of 2011 costing more than a billion dollars. With a major flooding disaster coming on the Missouri River, and hurricane season still to come, 2011 has an excellent chance of beating 2008's record of nine billion-dollar weather disasters. The billion dollar weather disasters of 2011 so far:

1) 2011 Groundhog Day's blizzard ($1- $4 billion)
2) April 3 -5 Southeast U.S. severe weather outbreak ($2 billion)
3) April 8 - 11 severe weather outbreak ($2.25 billion)
4) April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak ($3.5 - $6 billion)
5) Mississippi River flood of 2011 ($9 billion)
6) Texas drought ($1.2 billion)
7) Joplin tornado ($1 - $3 billion)


Figure 5. River flood outlook for the U.S. Image credit: NOAA.

The next U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster: a Missouri River flood?
A great 100-year flood has arrived along the Missouri River and its tributaries from Montana to Nebraska. Record spring rains, combined with snow melt from record or near-record winter and spring snows, brought the Missouri River at Williston, North Dakota to 27.9' yesterday, just an inch short of the highest crest on record (28.0' on 4/01/1912.) Tributaries to the Missouri, such as the Souris River in North Dakota and the North Platte River in Nebraska, are already flooding at all-time record heights. With warm summer temperatures and additional rainfall expected over much of the area during the coming week, snow melt and rain runoff will swell area rivers even further, creating a damaging 100-year flood. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has the details in his latest post, and I will be writing more on this latest epic flood next week.

I'll have a new post on Monday, or earlier if the Caribbean disturbance shows significant development.

Jeff Masters

Joplin Tornado Damage (thebige)
Joplin Tornado Damage
And Bigger.... (weatherfanatic2010)
Here it is turning into a monster.
And Bigger....

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1874. Tropicsweatherpr
4:02 PM GMT on June 04, 2011
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Here is the Link to the TCPOD for today. They corrected the origional since they had the flight tomorrow flying backwards in time:

E. 05/1745Z TO 04/2200Z

Still the recon for today was cancelled this morning at 1300Z.


Confusion is cleared. Thanks again.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14214
1873. kmanislander
4:02 PM GMT on June 04, 2011
Quoting miamiamiga:


Can you tell me why you think the dry air will mix out? There is a lot of dry air in that area. Just wondering what is happening that makes you think that things will moisten up. BTW: Not second guessing you, just want to know what your thinking is.

Thanks.


Sorry, had to step away for a bit. Run this WV loop and you will see that the moisture field is generally expanding, albeit slowly. In addition, the shear in the NW Caribbean that is being caused by 93L's motion into the SW GOM will relax soon as 93L moves ashore. This will allow the NW Caribbean to fill in and cut off the dry air into 94L.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15798
1872. tropicfreak
4:02 PM GMT on June 04, 2011
Quoting cat5hurricane:

The way I see it, while it is struggling now with what appears could be structural issues, I don't see any reason why this thing cannot become something. Vertical Shear remains low, while Relative Humidity levels in the mid-level sector are juicy. I think once it decides to designate a spot for the LLC and it can become closed off, then we could be talking about something in the near future.


That last frame looked very impressive, definitely some convection entering the western side of the COC.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6876
1870. AussieStorm
4:02 PM GMT on June 04, 2011
Quoting afj3:

Where is StormW? I haven't seen him in ages?

He left due to conflict. started up his own blog.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
1869. GeoffreyWPB
4:01 PM GMT on June 04, 2011
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL, Geoffrey didn't post the complete plan of the day, the flight is cancelled.


Whoops. Thanks. Sorry for the confustion.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11103
1868. jrweatherman
4:01 PM GMT on June 04, 2011
Quoting afj3:

Where is StormW? I haven't seen him in ages?


I believe he took a full time job at a foot massage parlor.
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 924
1867. pottery
4:01 PM GMT on June 04, 2011
Quoting afj3:

Where is StormW? I haven't seen him in ages?

He took his Pump and his Ridge, and moved out...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24235
1865. tropicfreak
4:00 PM GMT on June 04, 2011
Quoting afj3:

Where is StormW? I haven't seen him in ages?


He got banned.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6876
1864. nrtiwlnvragn
4:00 PM GMT on June 04, 2011
Here is the Link to the TCPOD for today. They corrected the origional since they had the flight tomorrow flying backwards in time:

E. 05/1745Z TO 04/2200Z

Still the recon for today was cancelled this morning at 1300Z.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11059
1862. tropicfreak
3:59 PM GMT on June 04, 2011
Convection definitely beginning to wrap around, especially from the SW end of 94L!


Also firing up some heavy convection on the eastern side, pretty cool cloud tops
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6876
1860. GeoffreyWPB
3:58 PM GMT on June 04, 2011
The two flights are for tomorrow and Monday. They just did some corrections:

TCPOD NUMBER.....11-004 CORRECTION
E. 05/1745Z TO 05/2200Z.........DATE CORRECTED.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11103
1859. afj3
3:57 PM GMT on June 04, 2011
Quoting AussieStorm:

Maybe updating it, Check back in a few minutes and there may be a TCFA with image and message to go with it. StormW gives 72hrs before condition deteriorate

Where is StormW? I haven't seen him in ages?
Member Since: June 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 347
1858. pottery
3:57 PM GMT on June 04, 2011
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL, Geoffrey didn't post the complete plan of the day, the flight is cancelled.

OK, Thanks. Whew!

Which brings me back to my earlier idea, that the NHC is NOT anticipating development in the short term.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24235
1857. MiamiHurricanes09
3:57 PM GMT on June 04, 2011
Quoting timswunderblog:
The mission with the aircraft is cancelled for today, and two missions have been scheduled for tomorrow.
Correct (for the second flight, they'll be arriving into the system very early Monday morning though).
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21109
1856. Tropicsweatherpr
3:57 PM GMT on June 04, 2011
As nrtiwlnvragn said earlier,aparently, they mixed up the times from yesterdays TCPOD and todays one and that may be the confusion.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14214
1855. AussieStorm
3:57 PM GMT on June 04, 2011
Quoting Cazador2011:


I wanan knwoa s well, Auz, Im confsued.

I'm not confuse,,,, i'm profused. lol
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
1853. timswunderblog
3:56 PM GMT on June 04, 2011
The mission with the aircraft is cancelled for today, and two missions have been scheduled for tomorrow.
Member Since: September 26, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 17
1851. MiamiHurricanes09
3:55 PM GMT on June 04, 2011
Quoting pottery:

Where is Patrap??
You guys are totally confusing me, man!
LOL, Geoffrey didn't post the complete plan of the day, the flight is cancelled.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21109
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Updated:

I know what I bolded wasn't updated, but thought it interesting.

1115 AM EDT SAT 04 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z JUNE 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-004 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 05/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 05/1430Z
D. 17.0N 78.0W
E. 05/1745Z TO 05/2200Z.........DATE CORRECTED.
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 06/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 06/0145Z
D. 17.0N 78.0W
E. 06/0500Z TO 06/0900Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES WHILE
SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The flight for today is still cancelled.

3. REMARK: LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION FOR 04/1800Z CANCELED
BY NHC AT 04/1300Z.

Is recon on or off????
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
1849. pottery
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The flight for today is still cancelled.

3. REMARK: LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION FOR 04/1800Z CANCELED
BY NHC AT 04/1300Z.

Where is Patrap??
You guys are totally confusing me, man!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24235
1848. JRRP
see you later
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cat5hurricane:

As it remains disorganized with it's structure, those cold cloud tops indicate it's potential for explosive development. No where near letting one's guard down by any means.


Agreed, the whole gulf coast, as well as FL, and the East Coast bears watching.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6876
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Updated:

The flight for today is still cancelled.

3. REMARK: LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION FOR 04/1800Z CANCELED
BY NHC AT 04/1300Z.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21109
1844. pottery
LMAO !
Recon is back on?
I agree with that move, if it's so.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24235
Updated:

I know what I bolded wasn't updated, but thought it interesting.

1115 AM EDT SAT 04 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z JUNE 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-004 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 05/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 05/1430Z
D. 17.0N 78.0W
E. 05/1745Z TO 05/2200Z.........DATE CORRECTED.
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 06/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 06/0145Z
D. 17.0N 78.0W
E. 06/0500Z TO 06/0900Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES WHILE
SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11103
1839. pottery
Quoting pottery:

Agree with that, but I think maybe slower, 12 to 18 hrs.
The entire system is kind of benign.

...which will likely give the wave enough time to begin some inter-reaction.
Interesting situation.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24235
1836. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:


Center relocations are more often found in sheared systems where the deep convection is continously blown off to the NE. In time, the surface low is said to "relocate" underneath the deep convection but in reality what happens is that the heavy convection forces the surface pressure down and that area takes over as the area of lowest pressure.

What we have here is not so much a sheared system, although there was some mid level shear earlier today, but one that is suffering from dry air intrusion from the NW Caribbean. The deep convection is too close to the actual center now to compete for dominance IMO.

I therefore do not think we will see a relocation but more likely a filling in of the remainder of the circualtion during the course of the day and tonight.

Agree with that, but I think maybe slower, 12 to 18 hrs.
The entire system is kind of benign.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24235
Quoting kmanislander:
I have centered this image over the main circulation.
Watch for it to fill in from East to West over the next 6 to 12 hours as the dry air is mixed out.


Can you tell me why you think the dry air will mix out? There is a lot of dry air in that area. Just wondering what is happening that makes you think that things will moisten up. BTW: Not second guessing you, just want to know what your thinking is.

Thanks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


You are right, the mission for today was scheduled for 2000Z, however that was the only mission scheduled for today, so maybe just a mixup in the time designation on todays POD. Don't think they will be flying.

POD for today issued yesterday:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 032045 AMD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0445 PM EDT FRI 03 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z JUNE 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-003 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)..........ADDED:
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 04/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 04/1630Z
D. 16.0N 78.0W
E. 04/2000Z TO 04/2315Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. RESOURCES PERMITTING

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK............CHANGED:
BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES AT 05/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: INVEST FOR 03/1800Z CANCELED AT 03/1130Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
SEF



Thank you. See if you find more info.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14214
Entirely possible if they don't fly today because of what was stated for the plan today issued yesterday, if I'm understanding this correctly that is.

G. RESOURCES PERMITTING
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1831. pottery
Looks to me like the NHC is delaying the flight (and everything else) until 94L can decide what to do with the dry air....
Could be 12-18 hrs for that to become clear.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24235
Quoting 1992Andrew:


Thanks for clearing up the confusion earlier on a possible second COC forming nearer to the convective flare up, which is south of eastern Jamaica. Have any idea if there will be relocation?


Center relocations are more often found in sheared systems where the deep convection is continously blown off to the NE. In time, the surface low is said to "relocate" underneath the deep convection but in reality what happens is that the heavy convection forces the surface pressure down and that area takes over as the area of lowest pressure.

What we have here is not so much a sheared system, although there was some mid level shear earlier today, but one that is suffering from dry air intrusion from the NW Caribbean. The deep convection is too close to the actual center now to compete for dominance IMO.

I therefore do not think we will see a relocation but more likely a filling in of the remainder of the circualtion during the course of the day and tonight.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15798
So the hurricane hunters won't be flying today?
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6876
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Whats Worse is that Florida unlike Texas and Other areas Completely surronded by land have Rivers that drain into the Basin which would provide some relief and drinking water...

Here in Florida... We depend mostly on Rainfall and the Rainfall collector of Lake Okecchobe.... However that lake is 3 feet below normal...

We have no Salization Plants in Florida...


No, we have no Salization plants, but we do have Desalination. Tampa has one that I am sure of. Otherwise our aquifer would be useless.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


That mission canceled was for 94L or 93L? I ask because the time for todays mission to depart was 16:30z arriving around 20:00z.


You are right, the mission for today was scheduled for 2000Z, however that was the only mission scheduled for today, so maybe just a mixup in the time designation on todays POD. Don't think they will be flying.

POD for today issued yesterday:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 032045 AMD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0445 PM EDT FRI 03 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z JUNE 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-003 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)..........ADDED:
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 04/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 04/1630Z
D. 16.0N 78.0W
E. 04/2000Z TO 04/2315Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. RESOURCES PERMITTING

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK............CHANGED:
BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES AT 05/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: INVEST FOR 03/1800Z CANCELED AT 03/1130Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
SEF

Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11059
Quoting kmanislander:
I have centered this image over the main circulation.
Watch for it to fill in from East to West over the next 6 to 12 hours as the dry air is mixed out.



I agree.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6876

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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