Caribbean disturbance slow to develop; 5 EF-5 tornadoes this year confirmed

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:33 PM GMT on June 03, 2011

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The tropical disturbance (Invest 93L) that crossed over Florida on Wednesday, bringing welcome rains of 1 - 3 inches, is now a naked swirl of low clouds over the central Gulf of Mexico. The disturbance is embedded in a large area of dry air associated with an upper level low pressure system, and this dry air is discouraging development. 93L is also moving into a region of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and NHC is giving 93L a 0% chance of developing into a tropical depression before the storm makes landfall in Mexico south of Brownsville on Saturday. There are a few heavy thunderstorms trying to fire up near the center of 93L's fairly well-formed circulation, but I don't think this storm is going to bring more than 1 - 2 inches of rain to the coast on Saturday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance.

Central Caribbean disturbance 94L
Disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity continues in the region between Central America and Jamaica. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and is predicted to continue to fall over the next two days. This should allow the disturbance, dubbed Invest 94L by NHC on Friday afternoon, to increase in organization, though it will take many days for it to approach tropical depression status, since it is so large and poorly organized. The last two runs of the NOGAPS model have developed the disturbance into a tropical depression or storm by early next week, with the system moving northwards into Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and eastern Cuba. The other major models do not show the disturbance developing during the coming week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. A surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave may aid development when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Sunday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Residents of Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them today through Sunday.

Five EF-5 tornadoes confirmed in 2011
The National Weather Service in Oklahoma City announced Wednesday that the violent tornado that hit Binger, El Reno, Peidmont, and Guthrie, Oklahoma on May 24, killing nine people, was an EF-5 with winds greater than 210 mph. The rating was given based on measurements made by a University of Oklahoma portable "Doppler on wheels" radar. The long track, large wedge tornado caused extensive damage, with well built houses cleanly swept from their foundation and trees debarked. This tornado brings the total number of EF-5 tornadoes this year to five, tying 2011 with 1953 for 2nd place for greatest number of these top-end tornadoes in one year. Only 1974 (six) had more. The EF-5 tornadoes of 2011:

1) The April 27, 2011 Neshoba/Kemper/Winston/Noxubee Counties, Mississippi tornado (3 killed, 29 mile path length.)

2) The April 27, 2011 Smithville, Mississippi tornado (22 killed, 15 mile path length.)

3) The April 27, 2011 Hackleburg, Alabama tornado (71 killed, 25 mile path length.)

4) The May 22, 2011 Joplin Missouri tornado (138 killed, 14 mile path length.)

5) The May 24, 2011 Binger-El Reno-Peidmont-Guthrie, Oklahoma tornado. (9 killed, 75 mile path length.)


Figure 2. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.

A few other remarkable statistics on the tornado season of 2011, compiled from NOAA's official press release and Wikipedia's excellent tornado pages:

- The April 25 - 28 tornado outbreak, with 330 tornadoes, was the largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record. The previous record was 148 tornadoes, set during the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak.

- For April 27, 186 tornadoes have been confirmed. This is the largest 1-day tornado total on record, beating the 148 recorded in 24 hours on April 3 - 4, 1974.

- The April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak, with 162 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the fourth largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record.

- The May 21 - 26 tornado outbreak, with 158 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the 5th largest 6-day or shorter tornado outbreak on record. A May 2003 6-day outbreak had 289 tornadoes, and a May 2004 6-day outbreak had 229 tornadoes. The year 2011 now has three of the top five tornado outbreaks on record.

- April confirmed tornado total was 683, making it the busiest tornado month on record. The previous record was 542 tornadoes, set in May 2003. The previous April record was 267 tornadoes, which occurred in April 1974. The 30-year average for April tornadoes is 135.

- If the three deaths in Massachusetts from Wednesday's tornadoes are confirmed, this year's tornado death toll will be 522, beating 1953 as the deadliest tornado year since modern tornado records began. That year, 519 people died, and three heavily populated cities received direct hits by violent tornadoes. Waco, Texas (114 killed), Flint, Michigan (115 killed), and Worcester, Massachusetts (90 killed) all were hit by violent F-4 or F-5 tornadoes. A similar bad tornado year occurred in 1936, when violent tornadoes hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.) During that time period, the tornado death rate per million people was 60 - 70 times as great as in the year 2000 (Figure 4), implying that this year's tornadoes would have killed many thousands of people had we not had our modern tornado modern warning system.

- The May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado killed 138 people and injured 1150, making it the deadliest U.S. tornado since 1947, and 8th deadliest in history. The $1 - $3 billion estimate of insured damage makes it the most expensive tornado in history.

- Damage from the April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak was estimated at $3.5 - $6 billion, making it the most expensive tornado outbreak of all-time.

- The tornado that hit Springfield, Massachusetts on June 1 was at least an EF-3 with 136 - 165 mph winds. It was only the 9th EF-3 or stronger tornado to hit Massachusetts since 1950, and the third deadliest, with three deaths.

- The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965 for highest number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4, and EF-5 tornadoes (Figure 3.)


Figure 3. Number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of these most dangerous of tornadoes. Image credit: NOAA/National Climatic Data Center (updated using stats for 2008 - 2011 from Wikipedia.)


Figure 4. Death rate per million people per year in U.S., 1875-2000. Thin line with dots is raw rate, curved thick line is death rate, filtered by 3-point median and 5-point running mean filter, and straight solid lines are least squares fit to filtered death rate for 1875-1925 and 1925-2000. Dashed lines are estimates of 10th and 90th percentile death rates from 1925-2000. The death rate fell from 8 per million to .12 per million between 1940 and 2000. Image credit: A Brief History of Deaths from Tornadoes in the United States, Harold Brooks and Charles Doswell III.

Joplin tornado the 7th U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster of 2011
The Joplin tornado is the 7th U.S. weather disaster of 2011 costing more than a billion dollars. With a major flooding disaster coming on the Missouri River, and hurricane season still to come, 2011 has an excellent chance of beating 2008's record of nine billion-dollar weather disasters. The billion dollar weather disasters of 2011 so far:

1) 2011 Groundhog Day's blizzard ($1- $4 billion)
2) April 3 -5 Southeast U.S. severe weather outbreak ($2 billion)
3) April 8 - 11 severe weather outbreak ($2.25 billion)
4) April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak ($3.5 - $6 billion)
5) Mississippi River flood of 2011 ($9 billion)
6) Texas drought ($1.2 billion)
7) Joplin tornado ($1 - $3 billion)


Figure 5. River flood outlook for the U.S. Image credit: NOAA.

The next U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster: a Missouri River flood?
A great 100-year flood has arrived along the Missouri River and its tributaries from Montana to Nebraska. Record spring rains, combined with snow melt from record or near-record winter and spring snows, brought the Missouri River at Williston, North Dakota to 27.9' yesterday, just an inch short of the highest crest on record (28.0' on 4/01/1912.) Tributaries to the Missouri, such as the Souris River in North Dakota and the North Platte River in Nebraska, are already flooding at all-time record heights. With warm summer temperatures and additional rainfall expected over much of the area during the coming week, snow melt and rain runoff will swell area rivers even further, creating a damaging 100-year flood. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has the details in his latest post, and I will be writing more on this latest epic flood next week.

I'll have a new post on Monday, or earlier if the Caribbean disturbance shows significant development.

Jeff Masters

Joplin Tornado Damage (thebige)
Joplin Tornado Damage
And Bigger.... (weatherfanatic2010)
Here it is turning into a monster.
And Bigger....

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1974. HCW
94L model runs from the NHC

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looking at the wator vapor loops, Florida and Texas are contained in the same pattern of dry air that is causing 94l issues with its development. We will certainly need a pattern change for this to move up into the SE or Texas.
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1970. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
empty space created

removal complete
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1969. pottery
Quoting Tazmanian:



94L is not haveing the best of times down there



we could be loooking at other bust

GFS thinks so too...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24390
1968. Patrap
Shoulder a work in progress,,Rehab began yesterday,,lost a lot of Bicep mass,but the procedure was overall a success,,now I just have to keep up with the rehab sched.

Thanx for asking
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



94L is not haveing the best of times down there



we could be loooking at other bust


Don't be too quick to write it off.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Lotsa Bones,,but no meat on 94L as the Dry Air has it stymied for a spell still.







94L is not haveing the best of times down there



we could be loooking at other bust
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Pat - how is your shoulder? (or was it arm??)
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Quoting pottery:
This 94L thing is moving in Super Slo-Mo.
The s#%^ is very slowly moving toward the ceiling fan.
But when it gets there, I think we going to see a lot of unpleasant stuff flying around the room....
BOOM!

everything in the Basin and beyond is pointing in that general direction.



LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AllStar17:


Having a difficult time with dry air.



dran you dry air i wish i can banned dry air but you cant
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1960. pottery
Quoting Tazmanian:
hiw is 94L doing?

See post 1923.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24390
1958. Patrap
Lotsa Bones,,but no meat on 94L as the Dry Air has it stymied for a spell still.




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
so where do mode runs take 94L?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting farhaonhebrew:
94L is dying?

No, and you won't be visible for long if you keep talking like that.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
Quoting Tazmanian:
hiw is 94L doing?


Having a difficult time with dry air.
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Quoting Patrap:



That's tomorrow ,,sport.....5 June begins @ 7pm CDT tonight


OK. Thank you! I'm not the best reader of the Recon. plans.
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hiw is 94L doing?
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Yes. That's why I'm screaming at the sky.


Lol! Yeah, one could react that way after what we have been thru. I really hope it doesn't verifie.
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Quoting AllStar17:
Then what's this?
E. 05/1745Z TO 05/2200Z.........DATE CORRECTED.
Tomorrow's scheduled recon mission into 94L.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting pottery:

He took his Pump and his Ridge, and moved out...


LOL -- he did move out.
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1948. Patrap
Quoting AllStar17:
Then what's this?
E. 05/1745Z TO 05/2200Z.........DATE CORRECTED.



That's tomorrow ,,sport.....5 June begins @ 7pm CDT tonight
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Quoting AllStar17:
Then what's this?
E. 05/1745Z TO 05/2200Z.........DATE CORRECTED.




not sure amm mix up



so is the HH flying for the 1st time?
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1946. Patrap
94L RAAMB page, Model Data
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


You didn't see the GFS 66 hour graphic I posted?

Yes. That's why I'm screaming at the sky.
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Then what's this?
E. 05/1745Z TO 05/2200Z.........DATE CORRECTED.
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1942. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Cazador2011:
That GFS is always out to lunch.
just like yourself
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1941. Patrap
RECON was sched for today but was canceled and they set a New POD for tomorrow,

Its easy to find on the NHC page Menu
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1940. pottery
Quoting IKE:
A week from now on the latest GFS...



Well, that shows a COMPLETE change from the present set-up.
Incredible!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24390
I don't believe recon. was ever scheduled to go in today. I think the NHC screwed up the date.
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1938. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting IKE:
A week from now on the latest GFS...


nice little system in epac at that time i see
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Quoting afj3:

Was the recon flight canceled?


Yes. There's one scheduled for tomorrow however.

There obviously isn't much to find out there yet.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24181
Quoting Cazador2011:


That's right, so as they say in real-state then, it's all a matter of location, location, location?


Pretty much.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

AAAAAHHH!! Why?!


You didn't see the GFS 66 hour graphic I posted?
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1934. IKE

Quoting afj3:

Was the recon flight canceled?
For today...yes.

Tentative for tomorrow.
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1932. IKE
A week from now on the latest GFS...


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1931. afj3
Quoting CybrTeddy:


No.

Was the recon flight canceled?
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
We cant absorbe more water here in Puerto Rico after all the rain that has fallen in the last 4 weeks. If GFS verifies, I would be or swimming or in a boat!


AAAAAHHH!! Why?!
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1929. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
CHANGED:

BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES AT 05/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

3. REMARK: INVEST FOR 03/1800Z CANCELED AT 03/1130Z.


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1928. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
196

NOUS42 KNHC 041515 COR

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

1115 AM EDT SAT 04 JUNE 2011

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z JUNE 2011

TCPOD NUMBER.....11-004 CORRECTION



I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70

A. 05/1800Z

B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST

C. 05/1430Z

D. 17.0N 78.0W

E. 05/1745Z TO 05/2200Z.........DATE CORRECTED.

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT



FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71

A. 06/0600Z

B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE

C. 06/0145Z

D. 17.0N 78.0W

E. 06/0500Z TO 06/0900Z

F. SFC TO 15,000 FT



2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES WHILE

SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

3. REMARK: LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION FOR 04/1800Z CANCELED

BY NHC AT 04/1300Z.



II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS

1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

SEF
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We cant absorbe more water here in Puerto Rico after all the rain that has fallen in the last 4 weeks. If GFS verifies, I would be or swimming or in a boat!

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1926. IKE
This was probably posted earlier but....

3. REMARK: LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION FOR 04/1800Z CANCELED
BY NHC AT 04/1300Z.


................................................. .................................................. ................

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT SAT 04 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z JUNE 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-004 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 05/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 05/1430Z
D. 17.0N 78.0W
E. 05/1745Z TO 05/2200Z.........DATE CORRECTED.
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 06/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 06/0145Z
D. 17.0N 78.0W
E. 06/0500Z TO 06/0900Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES WHILE
SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
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Quoting farhaonhebrew:
94L is dying?


No.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24181

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.