Caribbean disturbance slow to develop; 5 EF-5 tornadoes this year confirmed

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:33 PM GMT on June 03, 2011

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The tropical disturbance (Invest 93L) that crossed over Florida on Wednesday, bringing welcome rains of 1 - 3 inches, is now a naked swirl of low clouds over the central Gulf of Mexico. The disturbance is embedded in a large area of dry air associated with an upper level low pressure system, and this dry air is discouraging development. 93L is also moving into a region of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and NHC is giving 93L a 0% chance of developing into a tropical depression before the storm makes landfall in Mexico south of Brownsville on Saturday. There are a few heavy thunderstorms trying to fire up near the center of 93L's fairly well-formed circulation, but I don't think this storm is going to bring more than 1 - 2 inches of rain to the coast on Saturday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance.

Central Caribbean disturbance 94L
Disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity continues in the region between Central America and Jamaica. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and is predicted to continue to fall over the next two days. This should allow the disturbance, dubbed Invest 94L by NHC on Friday afternoon, to increase in organization, though it will take many days for it to approach tropical depression status, since it is so large and poorly organized. The last two runs of the NOGAPS model have developed the disturbance into a tropical depression or storm by early next week, with the system moving northwards into Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and eastern Cuba. The other major models do not show the disturbance developing during the coming week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. A surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave may aid development when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Sunday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Residents of Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them today through Sunday.

Five EF-5 tornadoes confirmed in 2011
The National Weather Service in Oklahoma City announced Wednesday that the violent tornado that hit Binger, El Reno, Peidmont, and Guthrie, Oklahoma on May 24, killing nine people, was an EF-5 with winds greater than 210 mph. The rating was given based on measurements made by a University of Oklahoma portable "Doppler on wheels" radar. The long track, large wedge tornado caused extensive damage, with well built houses cleanly swept from their foundation and trees debarked. This tornado brings the total number of EF-5 tornadoes this year to five, tying 2011 with 1953 for 2nd place for greatest number of these top-end tornadoes in one year. Only 1974 (six) had more. The EF-5 tornadoes of 2011:

1) The April 27, 2011 Neshoba/Kemper/Winston/Noxubee Counties, Mississippi tornado (3 killed, 29 mile path length.)

2) The April 27, 2011 Smithville, Mississippi tornado (22 killed, 15 mile path length.)

3) The April 27, 2011 Hackleburg, Alabama tornado (71 killed, 25 mile path length.)

4) The May 22, 2011 Joplin Missouri tornado (138 killed, 14 mile path length.)

5) The May 24, 2011 Binger-El Reno-Peidmont-Guthrie, Oklahoma tornado. (9 killed, 75 mile path length.)


Figure 2. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.

A few other remarkable statistics on the tornado season of 2011, compiled from NOAA's official press release and Wikipedia's excellent tornado pages:

- The April 25 - 28 tornado outbreak, with 330 tornadoes, was the largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record. The previous record was 148 tornadoes, set during the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak.

- For April 27, 186 tornadoes have been confirmed. This is the largest 1-day tornado total on record, beating the 148 recorded in 24 hours on April 3 - 4, 1974.

- The April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak, with 162 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the fourth largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record.

- The May 21 - 26 tornado outbreak, with 158 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the 5th largest 6-day or shorter tornado outbreak on record. A May 2003 6-day outbreak had 289 tornadoes, and a May 2004 6-day outbreak had 229 tornadoes. The year 2011 now has three of the top five tornado outbreaks on record.

- April confirmed tornado total was 683, making it the busiest tornado month on record. The previous record was 542 tornadoes, set in May 2003. The previous April record was 267 tornadoes, which occurred in April 1974. The 30-year average for April tornadoes is 135.

- If the three deaths in Massachusetts from Wednesday's tornadoes are confirmed, this year's tornado death toll will be 522, beating 1953 as the deadliest tornado year since modern tornado records began. That year, 519 people died, and three heavily populated cities received direct hits by violent tornadoes. Waco, Texas (114 killed), Flint, Michigan (115 killed), and Worcester, Massachusetts (90 killed) all were hit by violent F-4 or F-5 tornadoes. A similar bad tornado year occurred in 1936, when violent tornadoes hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.) During that time period, the tornado death rate per million people was 60 - 70 times as great as in the year 2000 (Figure 4), implying that this year's tornadoes would have killed many thousands of people had we not had our modern tornado modern warning system.

- The May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado killed 138 people and injured 1150, making it the deadliest U.S. tornado since 1947, and 8th deadliest in history. The $1 - $3 billion estimate of insured damage makes it the most expensive tornado in history.

- Damage from the April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak was estimated at $3.5 - $6 billion, making it the most expensive tornado outbreak of all-time.

- The tornado that hit Springfield, Massachusetts on June 1 was at least an EF-3 with 136 - 165 mph winds. It was only the 9th EF-3 or stronger tornado to hit Massachusetts since 1950, and the third deadliest, with three deaths.

- The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965 for highest number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4, and EF-5 tornadoes (Figure 3.)


Figure 3. Number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of these most dangerous of tornadoes. Image credit: NOAA/National Climatic Data Center (updated using stats for 2008 - 2011 from Wikipedia.)


Figure 4. Death rate per million people per year in U.S., 1875-2000. Thin line with dots is raw rate, curved thick line is death rate, filtered by 3-point median and 5-point running mean filter, and straight solid lines are least squares fit to filtered death rate for 1875-1925 and 1925-2000. Dashed lines are estimates of 10th and 90th percentile death rates from 1925-2000. The death rate fell from 8 per million to .12 per million between 1940 and 2000. Image credit: A Brief History of Deaths from Tornadoes in the United States, Harold Brooks and Charles Doswell III.

Joplin tornado the 7th U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster of 2011
The Joplin tornado is the 7th U.S. weather disaster of 2011 costing more than a billion dollars. With a major flooding disaster coming on the Missouri River, and hurricane season still to come, 2011 has an excellent chance of beating 2008's record of nine billion-dollar weather disasters. The billion dollar weather disasters of 2011 so far:

1) 2011 Groundhog Day's blizzard ($1- $4 billion)
2) April 3 -5 Southeast U.S. severe weather outbreak ($2 billion)
3) April 8 - 11 severe weather outbreak ($2.25 billion)
4) April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak ($3.5 - $6 billion)
5) Mississippi River flood of 2011 ($9 billion)
6) Texas drought ($1.2 billion)
7) Joplin tornado ($1 - $3 billion)


Figure 5. River flood outlook for the U.S. Image credit: NOAA.

The next U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster: a Missouri River flood?
A great 100-year flood has arrived along the Missouri River and its tributaries from Montana to Nebraska. Record spring rains, combined with snow melt from record or near-record winter and spring snows, brought the Missouri River at Williston, North Dakota to 27.9' yesterday, just an inch short of the highest crest on record (28.0' on 4/01/1912.) Tributaries to the Missouri, such as the Souris River in North Dakota and the North Platte River in Nebraska, are already flooding at all-time record heights. With warm summer temperatures and additional rainfall expected over much of the area during the coming week, snow melt and rain runoff will swell area rivers even further, creating a damaging 100-year flood. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has the details in his latest post, and I will be writing more on this latest epic flood next week.

I'll have a new post on Monday, or earlier if the Caribbean disturbance shows significant development.

Jeff Masters

Joplin Tornado Damage (thebige)
Joplin Tornado Damage
And Bigger.... (weatherfanatic2010)
Here it is turning into a monster.
And Bigger....

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Quoting Grothar:
How do you like this?????




BAMM takes it straight over Lake Okechobee.
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2273. IKE

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2271. xcool
Grothar -i'm working on now
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2270. Grothar
How do you like this?????


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2269. IKE
Mobile,AL...

101 °F

Partly Cloudy
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I SEE, ITS REALLY GOOD


Caps please.
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2267. Grothar
Quoting xcool:
Grothar heyyyy


Hey xcool. Hope you are busy getting those maps out. Looks like a busy season.
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2266. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
XX/INV/94L
MARK
16.36n/78.88w

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2265. Grothar
Quoting sammywammybamy:



Grothar... Great Post.

So now three models have picked up on 94L hitting Westren Cuba and/or South Florida.

Still not sold.... need to see persistance and longevity...

Still very intresting...


Where have I heard that line before.
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2264. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
135

WHXX01 KMIA 041848

CHGE77

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1848 UTC SAT JUN 4 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP912011) 20110604 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110604 1800 110605 0600 110605 1800 110606 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 10.6N 98.2W 10.9N 99.0W 11.1N 100.0W 11.3N 101.1W

BAMD 10.6N 98.2W 10.8N 98.6W 11.1N 99.4W 11.4N 100.3W

BAMM 10.6N 98.2W 10.6N 98.6W 10.8N 99.5W 11.1N 100.3W

LBAR 10.6N 98.2W 10.8N 98.4W 11.5N 99.1W 12.7N 99.9W

SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 42KTS

DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 42KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110606 1800 110607 1800 110608 1800 110609 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 11.5N 102.1W 11.9N 103.2W 12.2N 103.6W 13.2N 103.9W

BAMD 11.9N 101.2W 12.8N 103.3W 13.7N 105.6W 14.1N 108.2W

BAMM 11.5N 101.0W 12.0N 102.7W 12.6N 104.1W 13.4N 105.5W

LBAR 14.4N 100.5W 19.4N 101.2W 23.6N 100.7W 24.8N 99.0W

SHIP 53KTS 72KTS 80KTS 81KTS

DSHP 53KTS 72KTS 80KTS 81KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 10.6N LONCUR = 98.2W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT

LATM12 = 10.3N LONM12 = 98.2W DIRM12 = 342DEG SPDM12 = 2KT

LATM24 = 10.0N LONM24 = 98.0W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
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Quoting cchsweatherman:


From this site: Allan Huffman's Weather

Its an excellent website to have as it shows all the computer models and has a wide variety of variables shown for each model.



I SEE, ITS REALLY GOOD
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


ok first off invests do not form, they are designated

second, this is invest 91E


THANKS PROFESSOR !
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


So Far on the South Florida/ Westren Cuba / North Florida Bandwagon:

GFS,NOGAPS,ECMWF...


Should be noted that all them show a pretty weak system.
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2260. Bitmap7
Quoting DocNDswamp:
Mid level dry air hindrance is certainly an issue for 94L's environment... Clearly evident in this mornings 12Z sounding / skew T readout from Owen Roberts Arpt, Grand Cayman... Check the columns of temp / dewpoint temp spread and RH values, particularly between 500-400 mb to find the dry slot...

Jamaica station

Owen roberts

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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC INVEST 90E IS FORMING...



No caps needed.
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Those links you smart folks provide to the site are outstanding, water vapour, dry air, model runs are all great, thank u it helps peeps learn alot that is for sure any other links that can be addded u can post for me if your not to tired of doing that by now lol.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC INVEST 90L IS FORMING...




ok first off invests do not form, they are designated

second, this is invest 91E
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Quoting hydrus:


*Scratches Head*
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Quoting JFVStalker:
CCH, do you see this as a potential trend starter?


Would rather wait and see how the next few runs go before saying definitively one way or another. Still have days to watch this system.

But I can say this. Based upon all the computer models I've seen thus far, it appears, regardless of development of Invest 94L, that a wetter weather pattern will build for South Florida mid to late next week and could bring about the long awaited start to the rainy season here.
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IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC INVEST 90E IS FORMING...


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2252. hydrus
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Cchsweatherman,

Have you Noticed that NOGAPS also shows this?

Here you go:

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2251. Levi32
Good morning all.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Saturday, June 4th, with Video
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


Convection is Wraping around to the South...

See Comment 2239.


I mentioned that a little while ago.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


where did you get that pic from?


From this site: Allan Huffman's Weather

Its an excellent website to have as it shows all the computer models and has a wide variety of variables shown for each model.

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2245. xcool
Grothar heyyyy
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2242. Grothar
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Is that to my whole question or just the bolded part lol. Is remote linking disabled on raleighWX?



I'm not having any trouble with raleighWX.

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Quoting JFVStalker:


Oh well, as a weak TD, at least it hits the conus, which is my desire. -_______-.


Sorry, but can you stop making those faces at the end of your comments, you have been doing that on every single comment you have posted, and it is getting quite bothersome.
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Slightly WSW


AL 94 2011060400 BEST 0 163N 778W 25 1007 DB
AL 94 2011060406 BEST 0 162N 778W 25 1007 DB
AL 94 2011060412 BEST 0 162N 778W 25 1007 DB
AL 94 2011060418 BEST 0 160N 782W 25 1007 DB
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Mid level dry air hindrance is certainly an issue for 94L's environment... Clearly evident in this mornings 12Z sounding / skew T readout from Owen Roberts Arpt, Grand Cayman... Check the columns of temp / dewpoint temp spread and RH values, particularly between 500-400 mb to find the dry slot...
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Thunderstorms beginning to pop up on the western side.
94L Floater Rainbow Loop
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
The 12Z ECMWF may be back on board with some slight development with Invest 94L. Out 168 hours, shows a 1007 mb low crossing over Western Cuba. Note the bullseye of lower heights out in the Central Gulf. This would indicate an upper level low ventilating the system and pumping moisture into the system as well from the southwest.




where did you get that pic from?
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


Cchsweatherman,

Have you Noticed that NOGAPS also shows this?

Here you go:



Yes I have. I'm paying attention to all the computer models. Past few runs from the NOGAPS have been pretty consistent with a weak tropical storm in the Western Cuba and South Florida area by late in the week. Will have to wait and see how exactly the upstream pattern evolves as to whether or not this will hold true.
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Quoting Bitmap7:
Now the ball gets rolling!

Convergence is really building as it should

Vort is in position

anticyclone in Position

It just needs to pump up some more thunderstorms to get rid of any mid level dry air.


20 kt shear needs to move out of the area.

But yeah, it really does look like it is getting going.
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2231. Bitmap7
Some good vort on that epac system.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Some people may not be so sure about that.
Goodnight all
Sleep well.
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2229. IKE
1010 mb's @ hour 192......


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting JFVStalker:


G'nite, man! Hit the hay, it's like 4 over there, right now.

Closer to 5am actually. Suppose i should go snuggle beside my lovely wife. Watching "trucks" go round and round does get a little boring after a while. And my feet are finally feeling cold. Goodnight


Parramatta, Sydney, Australia.
Now
53.4°F steady
Cloudy
Updated at 04:40 EST
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
Quoting AussieStorm:

I would retract that if I was you.
If it's not weather related i'll be giving it a "!". Sorry KOTG. Rules of the road my friend, we all got to abide by them.
***
Wink, Wink, Nudge Nudge (just kidding)
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
The 12Z ECMWF may be back on board with some slight development with Invest 94L. Out 168 hours, shows a 1007 mb low crossing over Western Cuba. Note the bullseye of lower heights out in the Central Gulf. This would indicate an upper level low ventilating the system and pumping moisture into the system as well from the southwest.




981 mb for 91E in the East Pacific. Geez, that one gets going according to the ECMWF. It's been so long since last season, it's weird to see a 980 show up on a model run again.
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2224. Bitmap7
Worried about convection though.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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