Caribbean disturbance slow to develop; 5 EF-5 tornadoes this year confirmed

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:33 PM GMT on June 03, 2011

Share this Blog
8
+

The tropical disturbance (Invest 93L) that crossed over Florida on Wednesday, bringing welcome rains of 1 - 3 inches, is now a naked swirl of low clouds over the central Gulf of Mexico. The disturbance is embedded in a large area of dry air associated with an upper level low pressure system, and this dry air is discouraging development. 93L is also moving into a region of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and NHC is giving 93L a 0% chance of developing into a tropical depression before the storm makes landfall in Mexico south of Brownsville on Saturday. There are a few heavy thunderstorms trying to fire up near the center of 93L's fairly well-formed circulation, but I don't think this storm is going to bring more than 1 - 2 inches of rain to the coast on Saturday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance.

Central Caribbean disturbance 94L
Disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity continues in the region between Central America and Jamaica. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and is predicted to continue to fall over the next two days. This should allow the disturbance, dubbed Invest 94L by NHC on Friday afternoon, to increase in organization, though it will take many days for it to approach tropical depression status, since it is so large and poorly organized. The last two runs of the NOGAPS model have developed the disturbance into a tropical depression or storm by early next week, with the system moving northwards into Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and eastern Cuba. The other major models do not show the disturbance developing during the coming week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. A surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave may aid development when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Sunday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Residents of Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them today through Sunday.

Five EF-5 tornadoes confirmed in 2011
The National Weather Service in Oklahoma City announced Wednesday that the violent tornado that hit Binger, El Reno, Peidmont, and Guthrie, Oklahoma on May 24, killing nine people, was an EF-5 with winds greater than 210 mph. The rating was given based on measurements made by a University of Oklahoma portable "Doppler on wheels" radar. The long track, large wedge tornado caused extensive damage, with well built houses cleanly swept from their foundation and trees debarked. This tornado brings the total number of EF-5 tornadoes this year to five, tying 2011 with 1953 for 2nd place for greatest number of these top-end tornadoes in one year. Only 1974 (six) had more. The EF-5 tornadoes of 2011:

1) The April 27, 2011 Neshoba/Kemper/Winston/Noxubee Counties, Mississippi tornado (3 killed, 29 mile path length.)

2) The April 27, 2011 Smithville, Mississippi tornado (22 killed, 15 mile path length.)

3) The April 27, 2011 Hackleburg, Alabama tornado (71 killed, 25 mile path length.)

4) The May 22, 2011 Joplin Missouri tornado (138 killed, 14 mile path length.)

5) The May 24, 2011 Binger-El Reno-Peidmont-Guthrie, Oklahoma tornado. (9 killed, 75 mile path length.)


Figure 2. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.

A few other remarkable statistics on the tornado season of 2011, compiled from NOAA's official press release and Wikipedia's excellent tornado pages:

- The April 25 - 28 tornado outbreak, with 330 tornadoes, was the largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record. The previous record was 148 tornadoes, set during the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak.

- For April 27, 186 tornadoes have been confirmed. This is the largest 1-day tornado total on record, beating the 148 recorded in 24 hours on April 3 - 4, 1974.

- The April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak, with 162 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the fourth largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record.

- The May 21 - 26 tornado outbreak, with 158 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the 5th largest 6-day or shorter tornado outbreak on record. A May 2003 6-day outbreak had 289 tornadoes, and a May 2004 6-day outbreak had 229 tornadoes. The year 2011 now has three of the top five tornado outbreaks on record.

- April confirmed tornado total was 683, making it the busiest tornado month on record. The previous record was 542 tornadoes, set in May 2003. The previous April record was 267 tornadoes, which occurred in April 1974. The 30-year average for April tornadoes is 135.

- If the three deaths in Massachusetts from Wednesday's tornadoes are confirmed, this year's tornado death toll will be 522, beating 1953 as the deadliest tornado year since modern tornado records began. That year, 519 people died, and three heavily populated cities received direct hits by violent tornadoes. Waco, Texas (114 killed), Flint, Michigan (115 killed), and Worcester, Massachusetts (90 killed) all were hit by violent F-4 or F-5 tornadoes. A similar bad tornado year occurred in 1936, when violent tornadoes hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.) During that time period, the tornado death rate per million people was 60 - 70 times as great as in the year 2000 (Figure 4), implying that this year's tornadoes would have killed many thousands of people had we not had our modern tornado modern warning system.

- The May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado killed 138 people and injured 1150, making it the deadliest U.S. tornado since 1947, and 8th deadliest in history. The $1 - $3 billion estimate of insured damage makes it the most expensive tornado in history.

- Damage from the April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak was estimated at $3.5 - $6 billion, making it the most expensive tornado outbreak of all-time.

- The tornado that hit Springfield, Massachusetts on June 1 was at least an EF-3 with 136 - 165 mph winds. It was only the 9th EF-3 or stronger tornado to hit Massachusetts since 1950, and the third deadliest, with three deaths.

- The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965 for highest number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4, and EF-5 tornadoes (Figure 3.)


Figure 3. Number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of these most dangerous of tornadoes. Image credit: NOAA/National Climatic Data Center (updated using stats for 2008 - 2011 from Wikipedia.)


Figure 4. Death rate per million people per year in U.S., 1875-2000. Thin line with dots is raw rate, curved thick line is death rate, filtered by 3-point median and 5-point running mean filter, and straight solid lines are least squares fit to filtered death rate for 1875-1925 and 1925-2000. Dashed lines are estimates of 10th and 90th percentile death rates from 1925-2000. The death rate fell from 8 per million to .12 per million between 1940 and 2000. Image credit: A Brief History of Deaths from Tornadoes in the United States, Harold Brooks and Charles Doswell III.

Joplin tornado the 7th U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster of 2011
The Joplin tornado is the 7th U.S. weather disaster of 2011 costing more than a billion dollars. With a major flooding disaster coming on the Missouri River, and hurricane season still to come, 2011 has an excellent chance of beating 2008's record of nine billion-dollar weather disasters. The billion dollar weather disasters of 2011 so far:

1) 2011 Groundhog Day's blizzard ($1- $4 billion)
2) April 3 -5 Southeast U.S. severe weather outbreak ($2 billion)
3) April 8 - 11 severe weather outbreak ($2.25 billion)
4) April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak ($3.5 - $6 billion)
5) Mississippi River flood of 2011 ($9 billion)
6) Texas drought ($1.2 billion)
7) Joplin tornado ($1 - $3 billion)


Figure 5. River flood outlook for the U.S. Image credit: NOAA.

The next U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster: a Missouri River flood?
A great 100-year flood has arrived along the Missouri River and its tributaries from Montana to Nebraska. Record spring rains, combined with snow melt from record or near-record winter and spring snows, brought the Missouri River at Williston, North Dakota to 27.9' yesterday, just an inch short of the highest crest on record (28.0' on 4/01/1912.) Tributaries to the Missouri, such as the Souris River in North Dakota and the North Platte River in Nebraska, are already flooding at all-time record heights. With warm summer temperatures and additional rainfall expected over much of the area during the coming week, snow melt and rain runoff will swell area rivers even further, creating a damaging 100-year flood. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has the details in his latest post, and I will be writing more on this latest epic flood next week.

I'll have a new post on Monday, or earlier if the Caribbean disturbance shows significant development.

Jeff Masters

Joplin Tornado Damage (thebige)
Joplin Tornado Damage
And Bigger.... (weatherfanatic2010)
Here it is turning into a monster.
And Bigger....

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2324 - 2274

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75Blog Index

Quoting Hurricanes101:


ok first off invests do not form, they are designated

second, this is invest 91E


I said it was 91E all along as you can see

Was not wrong
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
...and...What, I wunder, is the numerical protocol for 'pre'invests?!?!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2320. Grothar
Quoting sammywammybamy:


North. (Southern Palm Beach County)

Gro...

As i have mentioned all day... The grass growing on the dry lake bed behind my house has died... Thats when you know things are bad....

If this Verifys:

This might be a drought cutter... It wont get rid of the drought... but it will cut into the defict..

-20+ Inches here...


Model support for Florida Drought Relief:

GFS
NOGAPS
BAMM
ECMWF
Etc


I am in Northern Broward. FLL. It really is the driest I have ever seen it. This is the God's honest truth. When I water some plants, the geckos actually come down and start drinking the water on the leaves. Never saw that in my life. Hope we get a soaker. P.S. The coastal areas are much drier. We haven't had a drop.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HCW:


They start at 90 and continue to 99. Any INVEST below 90 is a test invest


Grazi!

ShenValleyFlyFish


Do tell...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2317. Grothar
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Arabic numerals


Shen!!!! Behave.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:


You said 90L. So both of you are wrong. Sheesh!

Can you not be cocky.


That's why I just erased that from my comment.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2315. Levi32
ASCAT shows a giant area of very light winds over much of the Caribbean. Such a large region of light winds implies very little surface convergence, or piling up of air, except for the directional convergence along the monsoon trough, which is where all of the convection currently lies. Without a focused area of convergence, it will be hard for 94L to gain significant convection around it, despite an otherwise semi-favorable atmospheric pattern.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting treehuggingsister:
I know you all have answered this a million times before, but please indulge: where do the invest numbers come from?

Thanks loads ahead of time.


For the Atlantic and East Pacific they come from NHC Miami, for the Central Pacific they come from the Hurricane Center in Hawaii and for the West Pacific they come from the JTWC. Number are from 90-99 and then recycled thru again and again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2313. Grothar
Quoting WoodyFL:
Soory to interupt. I dont blog much but I just wanted to say its really sad some people have to spoil this blog. I am not the brightest guy in the world but i know when to keep my mouth shut. Just wanted to say thers some really smart people on here and some young kids who have good manners. I just don't get what the ones who spoil it think they are doing. I reall feel sorry for them. Y'all go ahead now. I just couldnt hold back on that. I learn a lot from you people.


Hey, do not criticize yourself. I have seen a few of your posts on the weather, and if I remember correctly, they were quite accurate. Nice post by the way. I am sure many agree.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
I KNEW IT!!!

It's 91E, in the Eastern Pacific now.

Whoever told me it was 92E, was WRONG!!!




You said 90L. So both of you are wrong. Sheesh!

Can you not be cocky.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


It's 91E, in the Eastern Pacific now.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
93l finally coming ashore and is visible on the Brownsville radar



swirl can also be seen on the visible




here was 93l 6 days ago



quite an extraordinary journey
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
2307. HCW
Quoting treehuggingsister:
I know you all have answered this a million times before, but please indulge: where do the invest numbers come from?

Thanks loads ahead of time.


They start at 90 and continue to 99. Any INVEST below 90 is a test invest
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HCW:
Major shift in the models




All over the place....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cchsweatherman:


I did not see that. Note in the publication that it states:

" The start of this rainy season is quite a bit more uncertain than usual due to the peculiar nature of the weather patterns observed across South Florida since mid-April."


Their criteria is strictly technical, mine is when the daily thunderstorms start.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2304. Levi32
Quoting PalmBeachWeatherBoy:
is 94L stalled? I haven't seen much movement from it


It's been essentially stationary for the last 24 hours, moving very little.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2303. HCW
Major shift in the models


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I know you all have answered this a million times before, but please indulge: where do the invest numbers come from?

Thanks loads ahead of time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2301. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Fleet Weather Center Norfolk Tropical Feed
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (FWC-N CDO) from Fleet Weather Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on Sat, Jun 04, 2011.

As of Sat, 04 Jun 2011 19:15:01 GMT


2011 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
94L.INVEST
93L.INVEST (DEACTIVATED)

East Pacific
91E.INVEST

Central Pacific

West Pacific
92W.INVEST

Indian Ocean
98A.INVEST

Southern Hemisphere
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
is 94L stalled? I haven't seen much movement from it
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2299. Gearsts
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Saturday, June 4th, with Video
TY was waiting all day for this :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


You did not see? NWS Miami has already declared the start of the rainy season.


I did not see that. Note in the publication that it states:

" The start of this rainy season is quite a bit more uncertain than usual due to the peculiar nature of the weather patterns observed across South Florida since mid-April."
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5030
Quoting Bitmap7:


Until convection starts flaring its A or D despite the atmosphere becoming more favorable for development.


I agree.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2296. Bitmap7

Station LCIY2
Integrated Coral Observing Network (ICON)
Location: 19.699N 80.061W
Conditions as of:
Sat, 04 Jun 2011 18:00:00 UTC
Winds: ENE (70°) at 15.9 kt gusting to 20.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.83 in and falling
Air Temperature: 82.2 F
Dew Point: 75.6 F
Water Temperature: 83.5 F
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Three things to watch, probably...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2294. Grothar
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Takes it straight over both of our Houses....



Looks like it could do it. With the continuous model agreement and slightly raised intensity scale, not out of the question. Are you North of me or South? I forget.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ok so, 94L, 92E and...
95L too???

http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/WTVT/custom /models/gfs/gfs_car_012.jpg
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2292. Bitmap7
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Invest 94L forecast

Next update from NHC at 8 PM EDT.
TCF 30% now.

a. still 30%
b. 40-50%
c. 50%
d. 60%
e. lower than 30%

Think it could be (b)


Until convection starts flaring its A or D despite the atmosphere becoming more favorable for development.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041747
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT JUN 4 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROW
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2290. txjac
Quoting WoodyFL:
Soory to interupt. I dont blog much but I just wanted to say its really sad some people have to spoil this blog. I am not the brightest guy in the world but i know when to keep my mouth shut. Just wanted to say thers some really smart people on here and some young kids who have good manners. I just don't get what the ones who spoil it think they are doing. I reall feel sorry for them. Y'all go ahead now. I just couldnt hold back on that. I learn a lot from you people.


Couldnt have said it better and am in total agreeance.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
135

WHXX01 KMIA 041848

CHGE77

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1848 UTC SAT JUN 4 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP912011) 20110604 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110604 1800 110605 0600 110605 1800 110606 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 10.6N 98.2W 10.9N 99.0W 11.1N 100.0W 11.3N 101.1W

BAMD 10.6N 98.2W 10.8N 98.6W 11.1N 99.4W 11.4N 100.3W

BAMM 10.6N 98.2W 10.6N 98.6W 10.8N 99.5W 11.1N 100.3W

LBAR 10.6N 98.2W 10.8N 98.4W 11.5N 99.1W 12.7N 99.9W

SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 42KTS

DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 42KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110606 1800 110607 1800 110608 1800 110609 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 11.5N 102.1W 11.9N 103.2W 12.2N 103.6W 13.2N 103.9W

BAMD 11.9N 101.2W 12.8N 103.3W 13.7N 105.6W 14.1N 108.2W

BAMM 11.5N 101.0W 12.0N 102.7W 12.6N 104.1W 13.4N 105.5W

LBAR 14.4N 100.5W 19.4N 101.2W 23.6N 100.7W 24.8N 99.0W

SHIP 53KTS 72KTS 80KTS 81KTS

DSHP 53KTS 72KTS 80KTS 81KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 10.6N LONCUR = 98.2W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT

LATM12 = 10.3N LONM12 = 98.2W DIRM12 = 342DEG SPDM12 = 2KT

LATM24 = 10.0N LONM24 = 98.0W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN



1st name storm?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Invest 94L forecast

Next update from NHC at 8 PM EDT.
TCF 30% now.

a. still 30%
b. 40-50%
c. 50%
d. 60%
e. lower than 30%

Think it could be (b)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2286. Grothar
Quoting JFVStalker:


Groth, porque me ignoras? =(.


Quien es?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2285. WoodyFL
Soory to interupt. I dont blog much but I just wanted to say its really sad some people have to spoil this blog. I am not the brightest guy in the world but i know when to keep my mouth shut. Just wanted to say thers some really smart people on here and some young kids who have good manners. I just don't get what the ones who spoil it think they are doing. I reall feel sorry for them. Y'all go ahead now. I just couldnt hold back on that. I learn a lot from you people.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Where have I heard that line before.


now that's funny
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Would rather wait and see how the next few runs go before saying definitively one way or another. Still have days to watch this system.

But I can say this. Based upon all the computer models I've seen thus far, it appears, regardless of development of Invest 94L, that a wetter weather pattern will build for South Florida mid to late next week and could bring about the long awaited start to the rainy season here.


You did not see? NWS Miami has already declared the start of the rainy season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2281. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
XX/INV/91E
MARK
11.53n/102.38w

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2280. wpb
maybe hmrf has it correct ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2279. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
2277. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Yes, I should have added "in the short term", on the mid level dry air limitation lying to the west of 94L... The 12Z GFS forecast over next 48 hrs at 450 mb shows the dry air slowly mixing out / moisture returning...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
How do you like this?????




BAMM takes it straight over Lake Okechobee.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 2324 - 2274

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.