Caribbean disturbance slow to develop; 5 EF-5 tornadoes this year confirmed

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:33 PM GMT on June 03, 2011

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The tropical disturbance (Invest 93L) that crossed over Florida on Wednesday, bringing welcome rains of 1 - 3 inches, is now a naked swirl of low clouds over the central Gulf of Mexico. The disturbance is embedded in a large area of dry air associated with an upper level low pressure system, and this dry air is discouraging development. 93L is also moving into a region of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and NHC is giving 93L a 0% chance of developing into a tropical depression before the storm makes landfall in Mexico south of Brownsville on Saturday. There are a few heavy thunderstorms trying to fire up near the center of 93L's fairly well-formed circulation, but I don't think this storm is going to bring more than 1 - 2 inches of rain to the coast on Saturday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance.

Central Caribbean disturbance 94L
Disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity continues in the region between Central America and Jamaica. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and is predicted to continue to fall over the next two days. This should allow the disturbance, dubbed Invest 94L by NHC on Friday afternoon, to increase in organization, though it will take many days for it to approach tropical depression status, since it is so large and poorly organized. The last two runs of the NOGAPS model have developed the disturbance into a tropical depression or storm by early next week, with the system moving northwards into Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and eastern Cuba. The other major models do not show the disturbance developing during the coming week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. A surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave may aid development when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Sunday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Residents of Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them today through Sunday.

Five EF-5 tornadoes confirmed in 2011
The National Weather Service in Oklahoma City announced Wednesday that the violent tornado that hit Binger, El Reno, Peidmont, and Guthrie, Oklahoma on May 24, killing nine people, was an EF-5 with winds greater than 210 mph. The rating was given based on measurements made by a University of Oklahoma portable "Doppler on wheels" radar. The long track, large wedge tornado caused extensive damage, with well built houses cleanly swept from their foundation and trees debarked. This tornado brings the total number of EF-5 tornadoes this year to five, tying 2011 with 1953 for 2nd place for greatest number of these top-end tornadoes in one year. Only 1974 (six) had more. The EF-5 tornadoes of 2011:

1) The April 27, 2011 Neshoba/Kemper/Winston/Noxubee Counties, Mississippi tornado (3 killed, 29 mile path length.)

2) The April 27, 2011 Smithville, Mississippi tornado (22 killed, 15 mile path length.)

3) The April 27, 2011 Hackleburg, Alabama tornado (71 killed, 25 mile path length.)

4) The May 22, 2011 Joplin Missouri tornado (138 killed, 14 mile path length.)

5) The May 24, 2011 Binger-El Reno-Peidmont-Guthrie, Oklahoma tornado. (9 killed, 75 mile path length.)


Figure 2. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.

A few other remarkable statistics on the tornado season of 2011, compiled from NOAA's official press release and Wikipedia's excellent tornado pages:

- The April 25 - 28 tornado outbreak, with 330 tornadoes, was the largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record. The previous record was 148 tornadoes, set during the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak.

- For April 27, 186 tornadoes have been confirmed. This is the largest 1-day tornado total on record, beating the 148 recorded in 24 hours on April 3 - 4, 1974.

- The April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak, with 162 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the fourth largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record.

- The May 21 - 26 tornado outbreak, with 158 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the 5th largest 6-day or shorter tornado outbreak on record. A May 2003 6-day outbreak had 289 tornadoes, and a May 2004 6-day outbreak had 229 tornadoes. The year 2011 now has three of the top five tornado outbreaks on record.

- April confirmed tornado total was 683, making it the busiest tornado month on record. The previous record was 542 tornadoes, set in May 2003. The previous April record was 267 tornadoes, which occurred in April 1974. The 30-year average for April tornadoes is 135.

- If the three deaths in Massachusetts from Wednesday's tornadoes are confirmed, this year's tornado death toll will be 522, beating 1953 as the deadliest tornado year since modern tornado records began. That year, 519 people died, and three heavily populated cities received direct hits by violent tornadoes. Waco, Texas (114 killed), Flint, Michigan (115 killed), and Worcester, Massachusetts (90 killed) all were hit by violent F-4 or F-5 tornadoes. A similar bad tornado year occurred in 1936, when violent tornadoes hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.) During that time period, the tornado death rate per million people was 60 - 70 times as great as in the year 2000 (Figure 4), implying that this year's tornadoes would have killed many thousands of people had we not had our modern tornado modern warning system.

- The May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado killed 138 people and injured 1150, making it the deadliest U.S. tornado since 1947, and 8th deadliest in history. The $1 - $3 billion estimate of insured damage makes it the most expensive tornado in history.

- Damage from the April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak was estimated at $3.5 - $6 billion, making it the most expensive tornado outbreak of all-time.

- The tornado that hit Springfield, Massachusetts on June 1 was at least an EF-3 with 136 - 165 mph winds. It was only the 9th EF-3 or stronger tornado to hit Massachusetts since 1950, and the third deadliest, with three deaths.

- The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965 for highest number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4, and EF-5 tornadoes (Figure 3.)


Figure 3. Number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of these most dangerous of tornadoes. Image credit: NOAA/National Climatic Data Center (updated using stats for 2008 - 2011 from Wikipedia.)


Figure 4. Death rate per million people per year in U.S., 1875-2000. Thin line with dots is raw rate, curved thick line is death rate, filtered by 3-point median and 5-point running mean filter, and straight solid lines are least squares fit to filtered death rate for 1875-1925 and 1925-2000. Dashed lines are estimates of 10th and 90th percentile death rates from 1925-2000. The death rate fell from 8 per million to .12 per million between 1940 and 2000. Image credit: A Brief History of Deaths from Tornadoes in the United States, Harold Brooks and Charles Doswell III.

Joplin tornado the 7th U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster of 2011
The Joplin tornado is the 7th U.S. weather disaster of 2011 costing more than a billion dollars. With a major flooding disaster coming on the Missouri River, and hurricane season still to come, 2011 has an excellent chance of beating 2008's record of nine billion-dollar weather disasters. The billion dollar weather disasters of 2011 so far:

1) 2011 Groundhog Day's blizzard ($1- $4 billion)
2) April 3 -5 Southeast U.S. severe weather outbreak ($2 billion)
3) April 8 - 11 severe weather outbreak ($2.25 billion)
4) April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak ($3.5 - $6 billion)
5) Mississippi River flood of 2011 ($9 billion)
6) Texas drought ($1.2 billion)
7) Joplin tornado ($1 - $3 billion)


Figure 5. River flood outlook for the U.S. Image credit: NOAA.

The next U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster: a Missouri River flood?
A great 100-year flood has arrived along the Missouri River and its tributaries from Montana to Nebraska. Record spring rains, combined with snow melt from record or near-record winter and spring snows, brought the Missouri River at Williston, North Dakota to 27.9' yesterday, just an inch short of the highest crest on record (28.0' on 4/01/1912.) Tributaries to the Missouri, such as the Souris River in North Dakota and the North Platte River in Nebraska, are already flooding at all-time record heights. With warm summer temperatures and additional rainfall expected over much of the area during the coming week, snow melt and rain runoff will swell area rivers even further, creating a damaging 100-year flood. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has the details in his latest post, and I will be writing more on this latest epic flood next week.

I'll have a new post on Monday, or earlier if the Caribbean disturbance shows significant development.

Jeff Masters

Joplin Tornado Damage (thebige)
Joplin Tornado Damage
And Bigger.... (weatherfanatic2010)
Here it is turning into a monster.
And Bigger....

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3672. emcf30
Quoting AllStar17:
Is it an illusion or is there a spin in the thunderstorms?
Link


I would have to agree with you. Earlier this morning the swirl was West of the convection. Now it has thunderstorms starting to wrap in from the NNE. Something to keep a eye on.
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ike i think you been hitting the go go juice to much..
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yes, I see the spinning as well. As I commented above, looks like the LLC is just barely tucked into the westernmost convection.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
XX/INV/94L
MARK
16.79N/77.23W
It looks like a blowup of bread in the oven.Okay lets keep the jokes aside for now.
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3668. Patrap
Cross Section of a Mature Hurricane



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129909
Quoting IKE:

I see a spin too. I was just fixing to comment.


So there's 2 people who see it. I also see some inflow but I could be wrong.
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3666. Grothar
Quoting IKE:

I see a spin too. I was just fixing to comment.


Isn't that afixing?
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Quoting SouthALWX:
and outflow boundaries are lower level typically: you'll see them as a line of expanding cumulus. If you see that "feathering" that you are seeing now? That's good for it. In my opinion, 94L looks as good as it ever has, thought the LLC is just barely under the westernmost convection. If that outflow continues, expect alot of convection to fire further west very soon.


Looks to be tightening up. There is definite convergence of stronger winds today.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Remember guys.Storms don't form when we won't them to.They will form when nature allows them to.Keep that in mind.


Buzzkill!!
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Are those outflow boundaries? Some of the experienced members here said those would cause 93L's convection to dissipate afterward and they were right. Is this the same thing?
Not in this case. Lower-level outflow is the result of the divergence, or separation, of air within a downdraft when it crashes at the surface. Upper-level (cirrus) outflow has a wispy appearance to it as compared to lower-level outflow that looks like a boundary. Upper-level outflow is the result of air that has released its moisture, and is commonly referred to as the 'exhaust' of a tropical system.

Lower-level outflow is not cirrus outflow, because cirrus clouds are located in the upper-levels.
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3662. IKE

Quoting AllStar17:
Is it an illusion or is there a spin in the thunderstorms?
Link
I see a spin too. I was just fixing to comment.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
3661. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
XX/INV/94L
MARK
16.79N/77.23W
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Remember guys.Storms don't form when we won't them to.They will form when nature allows them to.Keep that in mind.
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starting to look overcast and breezy here in Grand Cayman
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The outflow channels are really becoming impressive.

The whole western quadrant around to the northeast has a great outflow. Looks like banding on the surface too on the south side on the visible.
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3657. IKE
GFS 12Z @ hour 126....


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
and outflow boundaries are lower level typically: you'll see them as a line of expanding cumulus. If you see that "feathering" that you are seeing now? That's good for it. In my opinion, 94L looks as good as it ever has, thought the LLC is just barely under the westernmost convection. If that outflow continues, expect alot of convection to fire further west very soon.
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Is it an illusion or is there a spin in the thunderstorms?
Link
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3653. Patrap
GOES East 1 km Infrared Hurricane Sector Pictures
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129909
3652. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
XX/INV/91E
MARK
11.55N/101.2W


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Quoting Hurricanes101:


the difference is that the cirrus outflow looks more like a fanning out of clouds

an outflow boundary is more straightline


Ah, now that I think about it I don't think 93L spat out rings, but a line of cirrus to the west. That would explain it. Thanks.
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Well how do you tell the difference between "good" or "bad" cirrus outflow then lol. It looks exactly the same as when 93L started spitting out rings of cirrus clouds around it once it got off of Florida.


the difference is that the cirrus outflow looks more like a fanning out of clouds

an outflow boundary is more straightline
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U guys realize that 91E is at 40%??? Can't say I'm surprised. The imagery jason posted looks pretty good....
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Quoting AllStar17:


Good. It acts as a "ventilation" system for the thunderstorms.

Thanks. I'm not really smart at these things, even if I'm a Weather Nerd.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


looks more like the good kind of outflow for a storm


Well how do you tell the difference between "good" or "bad" cirrus outflow then lol. It looks exactly the same as when 93L started spitting out rings of cirrus clouds around it once it got off of Florida.
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3646. Grothar
Quoting emcf30:


Coffee has seemed to be taking it the chin today..LOL
Its going to be a long week watching this mess in the Caribbean


We have to watch something.
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3645. Patrap
Jamaica's Doppler is Down
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129909
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
missions for today cancelled
Great. :o(

I think I will check Randy's blog anyway to see if he's posted anything about 94L and anything else interesting....

Meanwhile, I hate to admit it, but watching 94L get its act together is strangely like watching paint dry....
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Kind of a dumb question, but is that good or bad for 94L?


Good. It acts as a "ventilation" system for the thunderstorms.
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3642. Patrap
To whomever left the case of Fresca on my porch overnight along with a Cane Tracking Map.


A hearty TYVM.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129909
Quoting AllStar17:


No, you may be looking at the cirrus outflow.

Kind of a dumb question, but is that good or bad for 94L?
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Are those outflow boundaries? Some of the experienced members here said those would cause 93L's convection to dissipate afterward and they were right. Is this the same thing?


looks more like the good kind of outflow for a storm
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3639. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Grothar:


Calm down and stop drinking that coffee. You know that when they post new information, they drop the old info sometimes. The CIMSS is famous for that and so is the Navy site.
how did you know i was drinking a coffee timmys too mmmm

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I knew this was gonna happen with some of the bloggers.I can't stress enough that these types of systems take days to develope.Remember Alex?.And their was a few other storms.
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Are those outflow boundaries? Some of the experienced members here said those would cause 93L's convection to dissipate afterward and they were right. Is this the same thing?


No, you may be looking at the cirrus outflow.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
xx/INV/94L
MARK
16.79N/77.23W


Are those outflow boundaries? Some of the experienced members here said those would cause 93L's convection to dissipate afterward and they were right. Is this the same thing?
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3634. IKE
Another flight bites the dust.....0-0-0.


3. REMARK: LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION FOR 05/1800Z AND FIX
MISSION FOR 06/0600Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 05/1100Z.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Don't know if this has been posted, but the Recon missions that were scheduled for this afternoon and tonight have been canceled by the NHC:

3. REMARK: LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION FOR 05/1800Z AND FIX MISSION FOR 06/0600Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 05/1100Z.


I think they may be waiting for some persistence from 94L before sending a flight out there.
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3632. emcf30
Quoting Grothar:


Calm down and stop drinking that coffee. You know that when they post new information, they drop the old info sometimes. The CIMSS is famous for that and so is the Navy site.


Coffee has seemed to be taking it the chin today..LOL
Its going to be a long week watching this mess in the Caribbean
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Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
look at 91e!!
Thanks for the imagery, jason. One thing: the fact that this system seems to be developing per schedule seems to suggest that we will see eventually SOMEthing from 94L...
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The models range from 94L making landfall in Belize to crossing extreme eastern Cuba and racing northeast. Talk about uncertainty.
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Don't know if this has been posted, but the Recon missions that were scheduled for this afternoon and tonight have been canceled by the NHC:

3. REMARK: LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION FOR 05/1800Z AND FIX MISSION FOR 06/0600Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 05/1100Z.
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3628. Grothar
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ok so now its back up on the graphic somebody make up there mind will they


Calm down and stop drinking that coffee. You know that when they post new information, they drop the old info sometimes. The CIMSS is famous for that and so is the Navy site.
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Good morning. 94L looks good-ish.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ok so now its back up on the graphic somebody make up there mind will they
:) The one you posted was 0900 and the one I posted is 1500.
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From what I've heard, the powers that be are just being careful about money. They don't want to find themselves standing in D.C. in front of a roomful of grandstanding Congress members six months from now explaining why they "wasted taxpayer dollars sending an airplane full of government employees on a sightseeing flight all over the Caribbean to look at a bunch of harmless little clouds".

Welcome to the New American Age of austerity-as-theater. :-\
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3624. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
ok so now its back up on the graphic somebody make up there mind will they
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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