Caribbean disturbance slow to develop; 5 EF-5 tornadoes this year confirmed

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:33 PM GMT on June 03, 2011

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The tropical disturbance (Invest 93L) that crossed over Florida on Wednesday, bringing welcome rains of 1 - 3 inches, is now a naked swirl of low clouds over the central Gulf of Mexico. The disturbance is embedded in a large area of dry air associated with an upper level low pressure system, and this dry air is discouraging development. 93L is also moving into a region of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and NHC is giving 93L a 0% chance of developing into a tropical depression before the storm makes landfall in Mexico south of Brownsville on Saturday. There are a few heavy thunderstorms trying to fire up near the center of 93L's fairly well-formed circulation, but I don't think this storm is going to bring more than 1 - 2 inches of rain to the coast on Saturday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance.

Central Caribbean disturbance 94L
Disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity continues in the region between Central America and Jamaica. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and is predicted to continue to fall over the next two days. This should allow the disturbance, dubbed Invest 94L by NHC on Friday afternoon, to increase in organization, though it will take many days for it to approach tropical depression status, since it is so large and poorly organized. The last two runs of the NOGAPS model have developed the disturbance into a tropical depression or storm by early next week, with the system moving northwards into Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and eastern Cuba. The other major models do not show the disturbance developing during the coming week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. A surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave may aid development when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Sunday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Residents of Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them today through Sunday.

Five EF-5 tornadoes confirmed in 2011
The National Weather Service in Oklahoma City announced Wednesday that the violent tornado that hit Binger, El Reno, Peidmont, and Guthrie, Oklahoma on May 24, killing nine people, was an EF-5 with winds greater than 210 mph. The rating was given based on measurements made by a University of Oklahoma portable "Doppler on wheels" radar. The long track, large wedge tornado caused extensive damage, with well built houses cleanly swept from their foundation and trees debarked. This tornado brings the total number of EF-5 tornadoes this year to five, tying 2011 with 1953 for 2nd place for greatest number of these top-end tornadoes in one year. Only 1974 (six) had more. The EF-5 tornadoes of 2011:

1) The April 27, 2011 Neshoba/Kemper/Winston/Noxubee Counties, Mississippi tornado (3 killed, 29 mile path length.)

2) The April 27, 2011 Smithville, Mississippi tornado (22 killed, 15 mile path length.)

3) The April 27, 2011 Hackleburg, Alabama tornado (71 killed, 25 mile path length.)

4) The May 22, 2011 Joplin Missouri tornado (138 killed, 14 mile path length.)

5) The May 24, 2011 Binger-El Reno-Peidmont-Guthrie, Oklahoma tornado. (9 killed, 75 mile path length.)


Figure 2. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.

A few other remarkable statistics on the tornado season of 2011, compiled from NOAA's official press release and Wikipedia's excellent tornado pages:

- The April 25 - 28 tornado outbreak, with 330 tornadoes, was the largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record. The previous record was 148 tornadoes, set during the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak.

- For April 27, 186 tornadoes have been confirmed. This is the largest 1-day tornado total on record, beating the 148 recorded in 24 hours on April 3 - 4, 1974.

- The April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak, with 162 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the fourth largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record.

- The May 21 - 26 tornado outbreak, with 158 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the 5th largest 6-day or shorter tornado outbreak on record. A May 2003 6-day outbreak had 289 tornadoes, and a May 2004 6-day outbreak had 229 tornadoes. The year 2011 now has three of the top five tornado outbreaks on record.

- April confirmed tornado total was 683, making it the busiest tornado month on record. The previous record was 542 tornadoes, set in May 2003. The previous April record was 267 tornadoes, which occurred in April 1974. The 30-year average for April tornadoes is 135.

- If the three deaths in Massachusetts from Wednesday's tornadoes are confirmed, this year's tornado death toll will be 522, beating 1953 as the deadliest tornado year since modern tornado records began. That year, 519 people died, and three heavily populated cities received direct hits by violent tornadoes. Waco, Texas (114 killed), Flint, Michigan (115 killed), and Worcester, Massachusetts (90 killed) all were hit by violent F-4 or F-5 tornadoes. A similar bad tornado year occurred in 1936, when violent tornadoes hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.) During that time period, the tornado death rate per million people was 60 - 70 times as great as in the year 2000 (Figure 4), implying that this year's tornadoes would have killed many thousands of people had we not had our modern tornado modern warning system.

- The May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado killed 138 people and injured 1150, making it the deadliest U.S. tornado since 1947, and 8th deadliest in history. The $1 - $3 billion estimate of insured damage makes it the most expensive tornado in history.

- Damage from the April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak was estimated at $3.5 - $6 billion, making it the most expensive tornado outbreak of all-time.

- The tornado that hit Springfield, Massachusetts on June 1 was at least an EF-3 with 136 - 165 mph winds. It was only the 9th EF-3 or stronger tornado to hit Massachusetts since 1950, and the third deadliest, with three deaths.

- The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965 for highest number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4, and EF-5 tornadoes (Figure 3.)


Figure 3. Number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of these most dangerous of tornadoes. Image credit: NOAA/National Climatic Data Center (updated using stats for 2008 - 2011 from Wikipedia.)


Figure 4. Death rate per million people per year in U.S., 1875-2000. Thin line with dots is raw rate, curved thick line is death rate, filtered by 3-point median and 5-point running mean filter, and straight solid lines are least squares fit to filtered death rate for 1875-1925 and 1925-2000. Dashed lines are estimates of 10th and 90th percentile death rates from 1925-2000. The death rate fell from 8 per million to .12 per million between 1940 and 2000. Image credit: A Brief History of Deaths from Tornadoes in the United States, Harold Brooks and Charles Doswell III.

Joplin tornado the 7th U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster of 2011
The Joplin tornado is the 7th U.S. weather disaster of 2011 costing more than a billion dollars. With a major flooding disaster coming on the Missouri River, and hurricane season still to come, 2011 has an excellent chance of beating 2008's record of nine billion-dollar weather disasters. The billion dollar weather disasters of 2011 so far:

1) 2011 Groundhog Day's blizzard ($1- $4 billion)
2) April 3 -5 Southeast U.S. severe weather outbreak ($2 billion)
3) April 8 - 11 severe weather outbreak ($2.25 billion)
4) April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak ($3.5 - $6 billion)
5) Mississippi River flood of 2011 ($9 billion)
6) Texas drought ($1.2 billion)
7) Joplin tornado ($1 - $3 billion)


Figure 5. River flood outlook for the U.S. Image credit: NOAA.

The next U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster: a Missouri River flood?
A great 100-year flood has arrived along the Missouri River and its tributaries from Montana to Nebraska. Record spring rains, combined with snow melt from record or near-record winter and spring snows, brought the Missouri River at Williston, North Dakota to 27.9' yesterday, just an inch short of the highest crest on record (28.0' on 4/01/1912.) Tributaries to the Missouri, such as the Souris River in North Dakota and the North Platte River in Nebraska, are already flooding at all-time record heights. With warm summer temperatures and additional rainfall expected over much of the area during the coming week, snow melt and rain runoff will swell area rivers even further, creating a damaging 100-year flood. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has the details in his latest post, and I will be writing more on this latest epic flood next week.

I'll have a new post on Monday, or earlier if the Caribbean disturbance shows significant development.

Jeff Masters

Joplin Tornado Damage (thebige)
Joplin Tornado Damage
And Bigger.... (weatherfanatic2010)
Here it is turning into a monster.
And Bigger....

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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Invest 95L moving through the Great Lakes tonight.

I thought those Lakecanes usually happen in November?
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
2973. j2008
Quoting ncstorm:


Yeah some rains are beneficial but a tropical storm can dump up to over 20 inches of rain if conditions are right..people should be careful of what they are asking for..again not trying to start an argument..

Yeah the last thing everybody would want is a flood problem to replace the dryness problems.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
People, the fate of a system is not convection waxing/ waning over a period of 3-6 hours.

I've been lurking forever and this is how it goes

Waning=POOF
Waxing=DOOM

give it time, an then make your observations
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Quoting Skyepony:


Today's hail winner, day after tomorrow's invest..



The mid-west wave train is kicking into full gear. Could see another long track Cape Cod Storm.
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Quoting Skyepony:
Hail winner for the day.

0205 200 1 W CHILLICOTHE ROSS OH 3934 8300 HAIL RANGING IN SIZE FROM 1/2 INCH TO 2 INCHES AT CENTRAL CENTER. (ILN)


Those storms are headed my way.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6874
Quoting tropicfreak:


Evening Miami.

Looks like 94L is already beginning to get some help, notice on the SE end it is sucking in some energy from northern South America, and the first wave of energy has just entered 94L, will be interesting to see what I wake up to.

Also another question, there has been much talk this afternoon and evening about a relocation of a COC, do you think there has been one, and if there is, where is it? Thanks.
I doubt a relocation has occurred, latest ASCAT revealed a broad area of low pressure south of Jamaica. What may of been observed are mid to lower-level vorticies located within or around the broader low-pressure area that could give it the satellite appearance of a relocation.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting keithneese:


I think the point is that people are wishing for a good soaking, not a cat 5 knocking at the door. To read the original post, you would think that we want death and destruction. We just would like some rain.


I wouldnt waste your breath arguing with people like this.

I think the ones who barge in here and either tell us what we can and cant talk about or completely misread our interest in the tropics as we want death and destruction are just as bad as the trolls.

This last week has been filled with good discussion with very very few people going overboard; yet we still get people who barge in here, read about 5 posts and claim we want a strong hurricane hitting our area.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Evening Miami.

Looks like 94L is already beginning to get some help, notice on the SE end it is sucking in some energy from northern South America, and the first wave of energy has just entered 94L, will be interesting to see what I wake up to.

Also another question, there has been much talk this afternoon and evening about a relocation of a COC, do you think there has been one, and if there is, where is it? Thanks.


There have been no indications, at least through satellite imagery and surface observations, that there has been a relocation or that one is currently occurring.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


You know something? Saying stupid stuff like that is the best way to get yourself on a lot of peoples bad side. I've been on here for 6 years nearly, I've seen wishcasting and there hasn't been any wishcasting. If anything, this thing developing will/would have been good and saved a lot of headaches because Florida needs rain and needs it fast because our rainy season isn't starting, period and its causing a lot of extra headaches for a lot of people in my area. Lordy son, LOL.
CT, I'm not pointing the finger at anyone in particular, but there were a few comments about a possible TS or greater in the GOM, which upset the NOLA natives. This caused Bob Breck to make his comments ( which you are probably aware because of the comments on this blog). There was unnecessary worry because nowadays all in The Big Easy are high-strung about the tropics. I'm not trying to get on anyone's BAD SIDE, just asking for moderation and sensitivity, as BB stated.
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
2965. ncstorm
Quoting CybrTeddy:


94L would have been nothing but a weak TS in the GOMEX. Barry and Alberto where like this and also brought much needed rains. Even Fay in 2008 had great benefits towards Florida.

I've been nailed by hurricanes, I don't want that on anyone but I was really hoping for a weak TS or at least the rainy season to kick off, mind you I could do without the lightning and the hail.


Yeah some rains are beneficial but a tropical storm can dump up to over 20 inches of rain if conditions are right..people should be careful of what they are asking for..again not trying to start an argument..
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Quoting ncstorm:


We have had ash in Eastern NC for over two months because of the wildfires in the outer banks and as much as severe drought we are in, I havent heard anyone from NC ask for a storm to make its way here..it is what it is..



Well the drought in eastern NC isn't as bad as it is in FL and Texas, but still something to be reckoned with. Would like to see some tropical moisture to keep us at or ahead of the annual average rainfall, because we at least here in Richmond VA do tend to fall behind a lot during the summer.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6874
2963. WoodyFL
Quoting caneswatch:


He is. He accused me of being one the other night, and i've been on for over 2 1/2 years and he's been on for just days. Great justification for me being a troll. /sarcasm


Your one of the guys I talked about earlier. I guess your one of the younger guys here but your alwasy polite to every body. Dont pay attention to those others.
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Quoting ncstorm:


We have had ash in Eastern NC for over two months because of the wildfires in the outer banks and as much as severe drought we are in, I havent heard anyone from NC ask for a storm to make its way here..it is what it is..



I think the point is that people are wishing for a good soaking, not a cat 5 knocking at the door. To read the original post, you would think that we want death and destruction. We just would like some rain.
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Invest 95L moving through the Great Lakes tonight.

hahaha

Maybe they outta put the Main Development Region over the great lakes region
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Quoting Walshy:
A bit off topic, but never drink a Mango drink from Canada. Especially the Tropical Grove brand.
Yep only thing worse is that Mountain Side brand Maple Syrup from Florida.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That isn't 94L though, lol, this is:



Evening Miami.

Looks like 94L is already beginning to get some help, notice on the SE end it is sucking in some energy from northern South America, and the first wave of energy has just entered 94L, will be interesting to see what I wake up to.

Also another question, there has been much talk this afternoon and evening about a relocation of a COC, do you think there has been one, and if there is, where is it? Thanks.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6874
Quoting CybrTeddy:


You know something? Saying stupid stuff like that is the best way to get yourself on a lot of peoples bad side. I've been on here for 6 years nearly, I've seen wishcasting and there hasn't been any wishcasting. If anything, this thing developing will/would have been good and saved a lot of headaches because Florida needs rain and needs it fast because our rainy season isn't starting, period and its causing a lot of extra headaches for a lot of people in my area. Lordy son, LOL.

+1000
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2956. ncstorm
Quoting keithneese:


Rain excuse??? I've got a wildfire one city over and heading this way. It's not an excuse, it's a fact. If you don't like it, don't read the blog.


We have had ash in Eastern NC for over two months because of the wildfires in the outer banks and as much as severe drought we are in, I havent heard anyone from NC ask for a storm to make its way here..it is what it is..

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2955. WoodyFL
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Invest 95L moving through the Great Lakes tonight.



It would be funny if thats where our waves came this year. LOL
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2954. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Invest 95L moving through the Great Lakes tonight.



Today's hail winner, day after tomorrow's invest..
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2953. Skyepony (Mod)
Hail winner for the day.

0205 200 1 W CHILLICOTHE ROSS OH 3934 8300 HAIL RANGING IN SIZE FROM 1/2 INCH TO 2 INCHES AT CENTRAL CENTER. (ILN)
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Invest 95L moving through the Great Lakes tonight.

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2951. WoodyFL
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Interesting to note the development of lower level convergence over the NW Caribbean and the subsequent flaring of convection beginning off the Honduras/Nicaragua coast tonight. Could indicate that dry air may be lessening in the area.


You got good eyes. Most people didn't notice that. I think Chiclit may have seen it earlier too. Not saying that this will be a monster, but that is exactly what is happening. Think a lot of people missed this. That ridge to the north is strong though, but the flare-up of convection is starting.

Link
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Quoting ncstorm:


A lot of states are in a drought but they aint "wishing" for a hurricane to hit them..if that aint wishcasting,then what is..the "rain" excuse is getting very tired..just call it what it is..a lot of people like the thrill of the storm until the power wont come back on, heat kicking their butt and food scarce...not trying to start an argument eithier


Rain excuse??? I've got a wildfire one city over and heading this way. It's not an excuse, it's a fact. If you don't like it, don't read the blog.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


I think he's a troll teddy.


He is. He accused me of being one the other night, and i've been on for over 2 1/2 years and he's been on for just days. Great justification for me being a troll. /sarcasm
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Quoting ncstorm:


A lot of states are in a drought but they aint "wishing" for a hurricane to hit them..if that aint wishcasting,then what is..the "rain" excuse is getting very tired..just call it what it is..a lot of people like the thrill of the storm until the power wont come back on, heat kicking their butt and food scarce...not trying to start an argument eithier


94L would have been nothing but a weak TS in the GOMEX. Barry and Alberto where like this and also brought much needed rains. Even Fay in 2008 had great benefits towards Florida.

I've been nailed by hurricanes, I don't want that on anyone but I was really hoping for a weak TS or at least the rainy season to kick off, mind you I could do without the lightning and the hail.
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Quoting Bitmap7:


This has a 30% chance? It looks worse than 93l imo, and this is the higher color intensity ir image.
That isn't 94L though, lol, this is:

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
2946. ncstorm
Quoting CybrTeddy:


You know something? Saying stupid stuff like that is the best way to get yourself on a lot of peoples bad side. I've been on here for 6 years nearly, I've seen wishcasting and there hasn't been any wishcasting. If anything, this thing developing will/would have been good and saved a lot of headaches because Florida needs rain and needs it fast because our rainy season isn't starting, period and its causing a lot of extra headaches for a lot of people in my area.


A lot of states are in a drought but they aint "wishing" for a hurricane to hit them..if that aint wishcasting,then what is..the "rain" excuse is getting very tired..just call it what it is..a lot of people like the thrill of the storm until the power wont come back on, heat kicking their butt and food scarce...not trying to start an argument eithier
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Also am watching convection firing over and south of Jamaica tonight as well and appearing to try and co-locate with the surface low in association with Invest 94L. Will have to see if this trend continues and whether we get some persistence from this.

RGB Floater Imagery


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2944. Bitmap7


This has a 30% chance? It looks worse than 93l imo, and this is the higher color intensity ir image.
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2943. beell
Quoting houston144:
got a no-brainier here I think, but I maybe way off base but wouldn't what has "pop" just off the west of California's southern coast be an invest for a typhoon? and why isn't anyone seeing it -anywhere-? (Seeing as in talking about it, marine reports, advisory's..)

I see no life for 94, and 93 was just blatantly "strange". This jet stream coming across the Atlantic, did I catch the term "Subtropical Jet Stream" correctly, and just when do we see that changing course?

hey you guys are awesome btw, well most of you that is.

H.



HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
2345 UTC SAT JUN 04 2011

GALE WARNING
.LOW 37N126W 997 MB DRIFTING SE. WITHIN 120 NM NE...240 NM S AND
420 NM W QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 240 NM NE AND E SEMICIRCLES AND FROM 32N TO 46N BETWEEN
126W AND 136W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 35N126W 1010 MB. FROM 30N TO 37N BETWEEN
122W AND 136W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED WITH CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
555 PM PDT SAT JUN 4 2011


...DISCUSSION...A VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BOTTOMED OUT LAST
NIGHT AROUND 995 MB OFF THE CENTRAL COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND
RETROGRADED BACK UNDER ITS PARENT STATIONARY UPPER LOW. THE
SURFACE FEATURE IS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND IS
NEARLY STATIONARY AROUND 36.8N 126.4W. IT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST
SOUTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AND DISSIPATE. AT THE
SAME TIME THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL BE PICKED UP BY AN ADVANCING
TROUGH AND PULLED OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. VORTICITY PINWHEELING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER LOW WILL PULL OUT OF THE AREA
MONDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS TRIGGERED BY A QUICKLY
ADVANCING TROUGH FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST. MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LIMITED AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS SECOND UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING...
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Quoting FrankZapper:
94L becoming a TD or better is a classic example of start of the season wishcasting.
So if a tropical cyclone develops, mother nature is wishcasting? Am I getting that right?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting tropicfreak:


So you call what cchs said, wishcasting?
No. There was just some eagerness on the blog when climatologically the setup is not ripe. Like horses in the starting gate.
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting CybrTeddy:


You know something? Saying stupid stuff like that is the best way to get yourself on a lot of peoples bad side. I've been on here for 6 years nearly, I've seen wishcasting and there hasn't been any wishcasting. If anything, this thing developing will/would have been good and saved a lot of headaches because Florida needs rain and needs it fast because our rainy season isn't starting, period and its causing a lot of extra headaches for a lot of people in my area.


I think he's a troll teddy.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6874
Quoting FrankZapper:
94L becoming a TD or better is a classic example of start of the season wishcasting.


You know something? Saying stupid stuff like that is the best way to get yourself on a lot of peoples bad side. I've been on here for 6 years nearly, I've seen wishcasting and there hasn't been any wishcasting. If anything, this thing developing will/would have been good and saved a lot of headaches because Florida needs rain and needs it fast because our rainy season isn't starting, period and its causing a lot of extra headaches for a lot of people in my area. Lordy son, LOL.
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Quoting WoodyFL:


Didn't know mangoes grew that far north.

Maybe that's the reason why one shouldn't drink mango juice from Canada. I have a big glass of OJ in front of me. Australian grown of course.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



hi JFV how are you this find day or sould i say night we pick up .87" of rain from today wish is a little odd for june if i say so


oh me and JFV kiss and made up LOL



LOL!!!! LMAO!!!!! ROTFL!!
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6874
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Big alien fly? You talking about where the bracket hooks in at the north pole keeps us from spinning out of orbit?

lol
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Quoting Tazmanian:



hi JFV how are you this find day or sould i say night we pick up .87" of rain from today wish is a little odd for june if i say so


oh me and JFV kiss and made up LOL

Congrats, Let's keep it this way. Going for a little walk to stretch my back and soak up some of this winter sun.
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Quoting FrankZapper:
94L becoming a TD or better is a classic example of start of the season wishcasting.


So you call what cchs said, wishcasting?
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6874
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Interesting to note the development of lower level convergence over the NW Caribbean and the subsequent flaring of convection beginning off the Honduras/Nicaragua coast tonight. Could indicate that dry air may be lessening in the area.


Not to mention it is sucking in some energy from South America. Folks, this thing is nowhere near done yet.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6874
94L becoming a TD or better is a classic example of start of the season wishcasting.
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting WoodyFL:


I don't know if the convergence model will show on this, but the energy fueling this appears to be coming from the South, but it is due to the upper atmospheric conditions in the North. Even though this is not a well-formed system, it is typical of early season storms. If you can see where the invest I is, the main flare-up should be the Northeast of this tonight. We will have to see.



Interesting to note the development of lower level convergence over the NW Caribbean and the subsequent flaring of convection beginning off the Honduras/Nicaragua coast tonight. Could indicate that dry air may be lessening in the area.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

I wish that big alien fly would move out of the way.
Big alien fly? You talking about where the bracket hooks in at the north pole keeps us from spinning out of orbit?
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
Quoting Walshy:
A bit off topic, but never drink a Mango drink from Canada. Especially the Tropical Grove brand.
lol
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got a no-brainier here I think, but I maybe way off base but wouldn't what has "pop" just off the west of California's southern coast be an invest for a typhoon? and why isn't anyone seeing it -anywhere-? (Seeing as in talking about it, marine reports, advisory's..)

I see no life for 94, and 93 was just blatantly "strange". This jet stream coming across the Atlantic, did I catch the term "Subtropical Jet Stream" correctly, and just when do we see that changing course?

hey you guys are awesome btw, well most of you that is.

H.
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Quoting SouthBeach:


Palm Beach, FL.



hi JFV how are you this find day or sould i say night we pick up .87" of rain from today wish is a little odd for june if i say so


oh me and JFV kiss and made up LOL
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2926. WoodyFL
Quoting Walshy:
A bit off topic, but never drink a Mango drink from Canada. Especially the Tropical Grove brand.


Didn't know mangoes grew that far north.
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2925. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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2924. Walshy
A bit off topic, but never drink a Mango drink from Canada. Especially the Tropical Grove brand.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.