Caribbean disturbance slow to develop; 5 EF-5 tornadoes this year confirmed

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:33 PM GMT on June 03, 2011

Share this Blog
8
+

The tropical disturbance (Invest 93L) that crossed over Florida on Wednesday, bringing welcome rains of 1 - 3 inches, is now a naked swirl of low clouds over the central Gulf of Mexico. The disturbance is embedded in a large area of dry air associated with an upper level low pressure system, and this dry air is discouraging development. 93L is also moving into a region of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and NHC is giving 93L a 0% chance of developing into a tropical depression before the storm makes landfall in Mexico south of Brownsville on Saturday. There are a few heavy thunderstorms trying to fire up near the center of 93L's fairly well-formed circulation, but I don't think this storm is going to bring more than 1 - 2 inches of rain to the coast on Saturday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance.

Central Caribbean disturbance 94L
Disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity continues in the region between Central America and Jamaica. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and is predicted to continue to fall over the next two days. This should allow the disturbance, dubbed Invest 94L by NHC on Friday afternoon, to increase in organization, though it will take many days for it to approach tropical depression status, since it is so large and poorly organized. The last two runs of the NOGAPS model have developed the disturbance into a tropical depression or storm by early next week, with the system moving northwards into Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and eastern Cuba. The other major models do not show the disturbance developing during the coming week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. A surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave may aid development when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Sunday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Residents of Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them today through Sunday.

Five EF-5 tornadoes confirmed in 2011
The National Weather Service in Oklahoma City announced Wednesday that the violent tornado that hit Binger, El Reno, Peidmont, and Guthrie, Oklahoma on May 24, killing nine people, was an EF-5 with winds greater than 210 mph. The rating was given based on measurements made by a University of Oklahoma portable "Doppler on wheels" radar. The long track, large wedge tornado caused extensive damage, with well built houses cleanly swept from their foundation and trees debarked. This tornado brings the total number of EF-5 tornadoes this year to five, tying 2011 with 1953 for 2nd place for greatest number of these top-end tornadoes in one year. Only 1974 (six) had more. The EF-5 tornadoes of 2011:

1) The April 27, 2011 Neshoba/Kemper/Winston/Noxubee Counties, Mississippi tornado (3 killed, 29 mile path length.)

2) The April 27, 2011 Smithville, Mississippi tornado (22 killed, 15 mile path length.)

3) The April 27, 2011 Hackleburg, Alabama tornado (71 killed, 25 mile path length.)

4) The May 22, 2011 Joplin Missouri tornado (138 killed, 14 mile path length.)

5) The May 24, 2011 Binger-El Reno-Peidmont-Guthrie, Oklahoma tornado. (9 killed, 75 mile path length.)


Figure 2. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.

A few other remarkable statistics on the tornado season of 2011, compiled from NOAA's official press release and Wikipedia's excellent tornado pages:

- The April 25 - 28 tornado outbreak, with 330 tornadoes, was the largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record. The previous record was 148 tornadoes, set during the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak.

- For April 27, 186 tornadoes have been confirmed. This is the largest 1-day tornado total on record, beating the 148 recorded in 24 hours on April 3 - 4, 1974.

- The April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak, with 162 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the fourth largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record.

- The May 21 - 26 tornado outbreak, with 158 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the 5th largest 6-day or shorter tornado outbreak on record. A May 2003 6-day outbreak had 289 tornadoes, and a May 2004 6-day outbreak had 229 tornadoes. The year 2011 now has three of the top five tornado outbreaks on record.

- April confirmed tornado total was 683, making it the busiest tornado month on record. The previous record was 542 tornadoes, set in May 2003. The previous April record was 267 tornadoes, which occurred in April 1974. The 30-year average for April tornadoes is 135.

- If the three deaths in Massachusetts from Wednesday's tornadoes are confirmed, this year's tornado death toll will be 522, beating 1953 as the deadliest tornado year since modern tornado records began. That year, 519 people died, and three heavily populated cities received direct hits by violent tornadoes. Waco, Texas (114 killed), Flint, Michigan (115 killed), and Worcester, Massachusetts (90 killed) all were hit by violent F-4 or F-5 tornadoes. A similar bad tornado year occurred in 1936, when violent tornadoes hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.) During that time period, the tornado death rate per million people was 60 - 70 times as great as in the year 2000 (Figure 4), implying that this year's tornadoes would have killed many thousands of people had we not had our modern tornado modern warning system.

- The May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado killed 138 people and injured 1150, making it the deadliest U.S. tornado since 1947, and 8th deadliest in history. The $1 - $3 billion estimate of insured damage makes it the most expensive tornado in history.

- Damage from the April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak was estimated at $3.5 - $6 billion, making it the most expensive tornado outbreak of all-time.

- The tornado that hit Springfield, Massachusetts on June 1 was at least an EF-3 with 136 - 165 mph winds. It was only the 9th EF-3 or stronger tornado to hit Massachusetts since 1950, and the third deadliest, with three deaths.

- The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965 for highest number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4, and EF-5 tornadoes (Figure 3.)


Figure 3. Number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of these most dangerous of tornadoes. Image credit: NOAA/National Climatic Data Center (updated using stats for 2008 - 2011 from Wikipedia.)


Figure 4. Death rate per million people per year in U.S., 1875-2000. Thin line with dots is raw rate, curved thick line is death rate, filtered by 3-point median and 5-point running mean filter, and straight solid lines are least squares fit to filtered death rate for 1875-1925 and 1925-2000. Dashed lines are estimates of 10th and 90th percentile death rates from 1925-2000. The death rate fell from 8 per million to .12 per million between 1940 and 2000. Image credit: A Brief History of Deaths from Tornadoes in the United States, Harold Brooks and Charles Doswell III.

Joplin tornado the 7th U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster of 2011
The Joplin tornado is the 7th U.S. weather disaster of 2011 costing more than a billion dollars. With a major flooding disaster coming on the Missouri River, and hurricane season still to come, 2011 has an excellent chance of beating 2008's record of nine billion-dollar weather disasters. The billion dollar weather disasters of 2011 so far:

1) 2011 Groundhog Day's blizzard ($1- $4 billion)
2) April 3 -5 Southeast U.S. severe weather outbreak ($2 billion)
3) April 8 - 11 severe weather outbreak ($2.25 billion)
4) April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak ($3.5 - $6 billion)
5) Mississippi River flood of 2011 ($9 billion)
6) Texas drought ($1.2 billion)
7) Joplin tornado ($1 - $3 billion)


Figure 5. River flood outlook for the U.S. Image credit: NOAA.

The next U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster: a Missouri River flood?
A great 100-year flood has arrived along the Missouri River and its tributaries from Montana to Nebraska. Record spring rains, combined with snow melt from record or near-record winter and spring snows, brought the Missouri River at Williston, North Dakota to 27.9' yesterday, just an inch short of the highest crest on record (28.0' on 4/01/1912.) Tributaries to the Missouri, such as the Souris River in North Dakota and the North Platte River in Nebraska, are already flooding at all-time record heights. With warm summer temperatures and additional rainfall expected over much of the area during the coming week, snow melt and rain runoff will swell area rivers even further, creating a damaging 100-year flood. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has the details in his latest post, and I will be writing more on this latest epic flood next week.

I'll have a new post on Monday, or earlier if the Caribbean disturbance shows significant development.

Jeff Masters

Joplin Tornado Damage (thebige)
Joplin Tornado Damage
And Bigger.... (weatherfanatic2010)
Here it is turning into a monster.
And Bigger....

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 3274 - 3224

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75Blog Index

Quoting FLdewey:
NWS MLB

INTERSTING FORECAST SHAPING UP FOR WEEKEND AS MODELS FLIRT WITH
DRAWING SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS CUBA TOWARD THE
SOUTH PNSLA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINITY BUT DOES REPRESENT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WITHIN THE 7-DAY FORECAST. HOWEVER...KEEPING
CHANCES SLIGHT FOR NOW.

Another dry week is forecast ahead for the Florida peninsula, so this would be nice. At least we get the sea breeze back this week. A 20% chance is better than 0%.


I'll believe a 20% when I see it, rain chances keep going down for this week as the days go by.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
All night rain after a rainy Saturday but no reports of flooding so far here in St. Andrew, Jamaica (Barbican area). If this continues for all of today we might not be so lucky.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
I think we need to decide on one person who will post the TWO when it is released rather than having 5 or 6 posts all at once. Its not like we're not all reading it on the NHC's website anyway...

I generally try to read back a bit to see see whether something has been posted before I do so myself. Sometimes I'll find that I've cross-posted, and if I have I'll blank out my entry to help keep the place looking tidier. But, yes, as someone else said, it would be great if everyone read back before posting. (To me what's even worse than the multiple TWOs are the multiple Cyclone Activity charts, especially when one gets a splash of red.)

But, as someone said, nice as it would be if everyone read back, it ain't gonna happen. ;-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Have a good one.


Thanks. Take a look at this vis loop . That low is tucked right under the SW corner of the blob. Today could prove to be quite interesting with this. back later.

Visible loop
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Sometimes the posts come so fast you dont see that someone else has posted things and then when you post things as well there is 2-3 postings of it all at the same time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3267. pottery
Getting some SunBeams here!
Going outside to see what that could possibly mean....

laters>>>>>>>
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Rainwalker:

Yes, Spanish Town St, Catherine
I know some people in Spanish Town. Is flooding an issue where you are ?
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Quoting kmanislander:
Time to get ready for my game so will bid you all good bye for now. Happy looping LOL
Have a good one.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Are you in Jamaica ?

Yes, Spanish Town St, Catherine
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3263. emcf30
I believe 94-L will develop into a tropical depression or perhaps even a tropical storm is possible over the next several day. The upper-level steering winds are such that Invest 94-L will likely remain in the Caribbean. The Madden Julian Oscillation is in an upward motion phase over the Caribbean. there are very warm ocean waters and some favorable conditions for some development. There is still some dry air to contend with specifically to the South and East but this area is moisten up and should improve with time. We most likely will see this feature of a week or so. Will be interesting to watch. I still believe with the weakness of the system it should eventually begin a more NW movement with time. It would all depend on the troff off the East Coast of CONUS and how much it will weaken and lifts out.





http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/wi nds/wg8dlm1.GIF

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
I think we need to decide on one person who will post the TWO when it is released rather than having 5 or 6 posts all at once. Its not like we're not all reading it on the NHC's website anyway...


Good luck on that! Wait till we have a Depression or a named storm. Some are just too lazy to read back a few posts to see if an item has been posted already.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Time to get ready for my game so will bid you all good bye for now. Happy looping LOL
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Quoting pottery:

But that would change the entire dynamic of the blog.
We cant have that!


Haha, true enough.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
I think we need to decide on one person who will post the TWO when it is released rather than having 5 or 6 posts all at once. Its not like we're not all reading it on the NHC's website anyway...


I agree. I would have our friend Ike doing that,of course if he can do it all the time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Rainwalker:
The conditions might remain hostile for 94L but, those closest to that ball of convention are getting a drenching.


Conditions aren't exactly hostile. They're not incredible, but not destructive.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I still say that the COC is reforming or a new one is forming near or under the convection
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12719
3256. pottery
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
I think we need to decide on one person who will post the TWO when it is released rather than having 5 or 6 posts all at once. Its not like we're not all reading it on the NHC's website anyway...

But that would change the entire dynamic of the blog.
We cant have that!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The conditions might remain hostile for 94L but, those closest to that ball of convention are getting a drenching.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Rainwalker:
It has rained for entirely night and it is still coming down in buckets. I think that the churches will be a little empty this morning.
Are you in Jamaica ?
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
As the low moves NW or N but states it is NOW moving slowly west @5 mph.


Actually a motion to the N or NW now would bring us some rain but not flooding rain. If it gets too far West we will get the heavy stuff to the NE of the low, assuming it continues to be lopsided like it is now.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
I think we need to decide on one person who will post the TWO when it is released rather than having 5 or 6 posts all at once. Its not like we're not all reading it on the NHC's website anyway...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It has rained for the entire night and it is still coming down in buckets. I think that the churches will be a little empty this morning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3249. pottery
Quoting Grothar:


You and pot could get a little wet before we do. Looks like that woody guy from last night really got this one. I think he was mostly ignored, but he was right on this. Wonder where he is? Probably has a job or worse, even works.

What a Ghastly Idea!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


You and pot could get a little wet before we do. Looks like that woody guy from last night really got this one. I think he was mostly ignored, but he was right on this. Wonder where he is? Probably has a job or worse, even works.


I wasn't on then but these types of systems flare up at Dmax and die down by Dmin. Quite a common occurrence.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Quoting kmanislander:


I suspect several inches. Low lying flood watch may have to be issued here for tomorrow onwards depending on how this plays out.
LOL. It always happens close to the end of the school year. Be prepared for your call tomorrow from the school :)
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
JAMAICA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...MAINLY TO THE
EAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WINDS IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING

THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS COULD
CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND
JAMAICA AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
As the low moves NW or N but states it is NOW moving slowly west @5 mph.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Quoting Grothar:


You got to be faster than that, teddy. I beat you. LOL


Lol, if I had my morning coffee I'd have beaten you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Well Kman, at least it looks like we will get more of the much needed rain.


I suspect several inches. Low lying flood watch may have to be issued here for tomorrow onwards depending on how this plays out.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
HA HA LOL WELL ME AND A FEW OTHER ARE CORECT 94L BACK UP TO MED 30%

000
ABNT20 KNHC 051148
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
JAMAICA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...MAINLY TO THE
EAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WINDS IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS COULD
CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND
JAMAICA AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12719
3241. Grothar
Quoting kmanislander:


Got my rain gear ready LOL


You and pot could get a little wet before we do. Looks like that woody guy from last night really got this one. I think he was mostly ignored, but he was right on this. Wonder where he is? Probably has a job or worse, even works.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3240. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:


No it isn't. You might want to hold off !

It's nearly 8:00, and I have not seen them so they may have decided against it.
Have the trenches covered with Galv., but its soggy out there and it is clay.
Walking in it is like walking in Glue...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


Got my rain gear ready LOL
Well Kman, at least it looks like we will get more of the much needed rain.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Quoting CybrTeddy:
30%


A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
JAMAICA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...MAINLY TO THE
EAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER.
SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WINDS IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS COULD
CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND
JAMAICA AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
3237. IKE
AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Good morning, That is one scrappy little storm out their



Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3235. Grothar
Quoting CybrTeddy:
30%


A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
JAMAICA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...MAINLY TO THE
EAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WINDS IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS COULD
CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND
JAMAICA AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


You got to be faster than that, teddy. I beat you. LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
JAMAICA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...MAINLY TO THE
EAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WINDS IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS COULD
CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND
JAMAICA AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.



Got my rain gear ready LOL
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
30%


A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
JAMAICA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...MAINLY TO THE
EAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WINDS IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS COULD
CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND
JAMAICA AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

I have a crew coming here to mix 10 cu.yds of concrete to cast a footing for a new building.
It's not looking too good, rain-wise.


No it isn't. You might want to hold off !
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
3231. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:


Take a look at the RGB loop. Right on the SW corner of the blob is where the rotation is.

Yeah I saw that. But a looped Vis would be nice.
We'll get one later.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3230. Grothar
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
JAMAICA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...MAINLY TO THE
EAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WINDS IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS COULD
CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND
JAMAICA AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3229. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:


Another day of watching and waiting LOL

Hopefully my game doesn't get rained out :-(

I have a crew coming here to mix 10 cu.yds of concrete to cast a footing for a new building.
It's not looking too good, rain-wise.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3228. IKE

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting pottery:

Could be. But we need a loop to confirm that one.


Take a look at the RGB loop. Right on the SW corner of the blob is where the rotation is.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Quoting IKE:

I can see the spin SW or WSW of the blow up of convection.


Another day of watching and waiting LOL

Hopefully my game doesn't get rained out :-(
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
3225. pottery
Quoting IKE:

I can see the spin SW or WSW of the blow up of convection.

Could be. But we need a loop to confirm that one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3224. Grothar
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 3274 - 3224

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron